SAE Planning vote to formally deny CHAdeMO in US

[DANandNAN]

I'm betting peoples eyes would get even wider if you told them that the big'mo could cost them $25 to get 80 city miles when they could drive a GIANT SUV, get more miles per dollar, and not have to wait.

Please do tell how J1772-DC will make this $25/charge cost any cheaper. I'm all ears.

Jeremy

Demand charges don't exist for L2. They don't exist for L3 either - as long as you slow it way down.

 

[DANandNAN]

I don't live out west, as I have mentioned before (and you ignored).

Congrats :? :roll:

wow, it's amazing how you use peoples comments to benefit your agenda. this was in reference to the fact that you said QCs are all over the East Coast.

What???

Um, ok. Thanks for clearing that up :lol:

 

[DANandNAN]

I'm talking about the # of sales of BMWs in the US, in general vs those w/larger sales. I just find it odd that somehow an automaker that sells about 1/3rd as many vehicles in the US as Nissan would somehow be able to sell MORE EVs than Nissan, esp. in light of increasing competition.

Who cares what their total sales are? We're talking about a specific segment. A segment that wealthy people will run to - people that weren't attracted previously.

 

[DANandNAN]

Dan, can you please reference where you got 50 mins for a QC? Just curious.

Yeah, I was wondering about that. QC time is how long you're willing to wait for the miles you want. If you just need 10 miles you can just do a 5 minute session. ~50 min is low battery warning to full.

The protocol is just an afterthought here. This is a general characteristic of quick charging.

Jeremy

Ah, a full charge. Because when he was talking earlier he kept saying that it would take 50 mins and I would still only be able to 65 miles. He, also, referenced 80%. This is where my confusion lies.

LOL, it's really funny because some folks are twisting the times for their own good. Yes, the big'mo can stop charging whenever you want, so can the L2. Yet, in the example above it’s 6 hours when it’s L2 because the battery is dead and you have to fill to max, but when it’s L3 it’s no longer a drained battery and a little top off is all you need.

 

[DANandNAN]

So how much would you suggest that SAE charges for their usage? Should it be different?

I'm forecasting that someone with a Porsche, BMW or even a Volt would be more willing to pay for a L3 charge that 10% of Leaf owners here said they'd be willing to pay, not that it'll be any less.

 

[DANandNAN]

I guess we have to educate you one step at a time. Nissan is building a "really big" factory in Tennessee (that's in the USA) to build LEAF and the batteries.

The factory is a problem for the same reason that CHAdeMO is in trouble -- demand for Leafs is very weak. Nissan is selling less than 1000 Leafs a month. I know the narrative is that there are supply constraints, and no doubt there are, but Nissan has also said that dealers in CA have inventory. Since you have to assume that CA will account for 40% of demand, then, even if every sale last month was made in CA, you're looking at a sales ceiling of 1250 units a month.

Now the idea is that moving production to Smyrna will cut costs and the price, but my sense is that while there is nothing standing between GM selling 5000 Volts a month but a $5000 price cut, that's not true for the Leaf. What the Leaf needs is another 100 miles or range, and Smyrna isn't going to help with that.

Just moving along with numbers, GM could equip the Volt with the SAE combo plug. At current sales run rates this would mean far more SAE plugs than CHAdeMO plugs. Of course the obvious response is that no one driving a Volt would bother with tracking down and hassling a QC when they could just drive on gas. Very true but the same holds true for Leaf drivers. For a trip the practical range of the Leaf isn't that much greater than the EV range on the Volt, and 99.9% of drivers won't want to hassle with a QC for the Leaf given its limited range. People aren't going to want to drive for half and hour and then take half an hour to recharge. Rather than hassling with CHAdeMO they'll just take an ICE. As a result, those QCs which are installed won't see sufficiently high utilization rates to justify their existence.

This is a long way of suggesting that the problem for CHAdeMO isn't the SAE combo plug. It's that the high cost and lack of demand for QCs make both plugs irrelevant, at least in the near future.

Great points. I agree, a $5k price cut for the Leaf will do far less for sales than a 50-100% increase in the original claimed 100 mile range. The only thing I'd disagree with is that I think Volt owners would be willing to pay for the demand charge to keep going EV if they hadn't found a L2.

 

[DANandNAN]

Trouble is determining if demand for the LEAF is low due to no QC.
While I am in favor of the I5 QC corridor I am not convinced it should go nation wide until demand for each can be better assessed.
And yes I think a realistic 100 mile range with 50 miles in reserve is what many people may need for the car to have the preceived range needed.
Perception of needed range may drop with available QC.

Far rather see QC than the proposed CA high speed rail system.

But there's 1 big'mo out there for every 100 Leaf's and the sales are down ~50%. How much more proof do we need?

 

[DANandNAN]

Tough break for Frankenplug, already losing a functional member, Audi. I'm sure GM and BMW got it handled.

Great to see you celebrating a dagger in the proverbial heart of EV. Yes, let's celebrate another ally halting their plans. That will help bring EV to the masses.

It's bigger than a plug tony. Try to get some prospective.

 

[smkettner]

there's 1 big'mo out there for every 100 Leaf's and the sales are down ~50%. How much more proof do we need?

NO big mo close to me. World wide sales are down? Please post when the Oppama plant is shut down for excess retail inventory.

 

[JeremyW]

I'm betting peoples eyes would get even wider if you told them that the big'mo could cost them $25 to get 80 city miles when they could drive a GIANT SUV, get more miles per dollar, and not have to wait.

Please do tell how J1772-DC will make this $25/charge cost any cheaper. I'm all ears.

Jeremy

Demand charges don't exist for L2. They don't exist for L3 either - as long as you slow it way down.

Way to not answer my question.

Trollololol! :lol:

Jeremy

 

[SanDust]

Something that seems obvious to me. I think even DantheMan gets that. We still need to install them, and build that network that will make EVs more and more "normal" to the gasoline station experience. Low on power? Just pop in for a bit, and get 20-40 miles in 10-20 minutes.

What I see is a complete refusal to consider the Leaf because of its range. Basically when I ask why someone would not consider one I get some variation of "Doesn't fit my lifestyle". QCs don't seem to resonate. The only thing that does seem to resonate is more range, and even that is pretty soft. I certainly don't see any minds being changed by telling them they could stop and get 20-40 more miles in 10-20 minutes. Right now with an ICE vehicle you get hundreds of miles in ten minutes of refueling, and that's the benchmark.

 

[Train]

What I see is a complete refusal to consider the Leaf because of its range. Basically when I ask why someone would not consider one I get some variation of "Doesn't fit my lifestyle". QCs don't seem to resonate. The only thing that does seem to resonate is more range, and even that is pretty soft. I certainly don't see any minds being changed by telling them they could stop and get 20-40 more miles in 10-20 minutes. Right now with an ICE vehicle you get hundreds of miles in ten minutes of refueling, and that's the benchmark.

Bingo.

I can refuel my car in under 5 minutes. Waiting 20 minutes to charge for an extra 40 miles will just bring to mind buyer's remorse. Doing this repeatedly will set it in concrete.

It's the price. It's the limited range. Not-so-quick charge stations won't change the low demand. A damn plug isn't going to cause an upheaval. No one even knows or cares about this except EV enthusiasts and they've already got their cars.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. You can put 10,000 charge stations up but if someone has to sit there and wait 20 minutes, or wait for the person in front of them, then wait some more, I can't think of a worse business model to turn customers off.

With non hybrid petrol cars EPA rated at 40 mpg, priced at $10,000 less, have a near 400 mile cruising range, and can fill up in five minutes, some here are stil baffled why the general public isn't going to buy an electric car that has 1/4 the range, can take hours to charge, can't be taken to remote areas, and cost $10,000 more.

The problem Nissan is going to have with the Tennessee plant is not whether they can build enough cars. The problem is what they are going to do with a factory that builds cars that nobody wants.

 

[Smidge204]

It's bigger than a plug tony. Try to get some prospective.

Congratulations, DANandNAN - You've successfully used up the entire Earth's supply of Irony.

Seriously, after all the words you've wasted - paragraph upon paragraph - railing against CHAdeMO as a waste of time and money, the issue is now "bigger than a plug" and others need to "get some perspective" ? Oi...
=Smidge=

 

[TonyWilliams]

It's bigger than a plug tony. Try to get some prospective.

Congratulations, DANandNAN - You've successfully used up the entire Earth's supply of Irony.

Seriously, after all the words you've wasted - paragraph upon paragraph - railing against CHAdeMO as a waste of time and money, the issue is now "bigger than a plug" and others need to "get some perspective" ? Oi...
=Smidge=

+1 more than the number of Frankenplugs in the world.

This popcorn is good, too. Can't wait to hear how that special Frankenplug is so fast!!!! Maybe GM puts a Corvette engine in it?

 

[cwerdna]

With non hybrid petrol cars EPA rated at 40 mpg, priced at $10,000 less, have a near 400 mile cruising range, and can fill up in five minutes, some here are stil baffled why the general public isn't going to buy an electric car that has 1/4 the range, can take hours to charge, can't be taken to remote areas, and cost $10,000 more.

That "40 mpg" is based on EPA HIGHWAY ratings. Not everyone lives and works on a highway. Not everyone who drives on a highway for their commute achieves highway speeds and isn't in stop and go traffic.

Per http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=Cars&year1=2012&year2=2013&minmsrpsel=0&maxmsrpsel=0&cbftreggasoline=Regular+Gasoline&cbftmidgasoline=Midgrade+Gasoline&cbftprmgasoline=Premium+Gasoline&cbftdiesel=Diesel&cbfte85=E85&city=0&combined=40&highway=0&mpgType=0&minMPGSel=&maxMPGSel=&rowLimit=50&YearSel=2012-2013&MakeSel=&MarClassSel=&FuelTypeSel=Regular+Gasoline%2C+Midgrade+Gasoline%2C+Premium+Gasoline%2C+Diesel%2C+E85&VehTypeSel=&TranySel=&DriveTypeSel=&CylindersSel=&MpgSel=0400&sortBy=Comb&Units=&url=SearchServlet&opt=new&minmsrp=0&maxmsrp=0&minmpg=0&maxmpg=0&pageno=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, there are 0 non-hybrid ICEVs which achieve 40+ mpg COMBINED. I only count 3 non-hybrids that achieve >=35 mpg combined. Two of them are TINY.

 

[cwerdna]

I'm talking about the # of sales of BMWs in the US, in general vs those w/larger sales. I just find it odd that somehow an automaker that sells about 1/3rd as many vehicles in the US as Nissan would somehow be able to sell MORE EVs than Nissan, esp. in light of increasing competition.

Who cares what their total sales are? We're talking about a specific segment. A segment that wealthy people will run to - people that weren't attracted previously.

It matters because there is often a correlation between how many units are sold by a given automaker/under a certain label and how many in a particular segment they're able to sell.

Although not directly comparable, look how many Miatas Mazda or Nissan 370Zs were sold last month (http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mazda-sales-up-more-than-13-percent-year-over-year-156386155.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nissan-north-america-sales-increase-205-in-may-156379285.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false vs. the # of Mustangs Ford sold last month (http://media.ford.com/images/10031/May12sales.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false.

I still assert that it makes no sense that BMW will somehow sell more EVs than Nissan, esp. w/increasing competition. It seems that wealthy segment would be attracted to an Infiniti EV or Tesla Model S as well.

 

[bryan38401]

for those of you who dont drive a leaf please put a sock in it about range, you are so closed minded my WIFE put 177 miles on her leaf yesterday on L2 only , when we use L3 we do close to 250 in a day.I still do not understand what concern is it of yours which car I decide to drive. we have 9 ice and one leaf. new leaf on order,by the end of 2013 I want it to be 2 ice 10 electric.I dont care which QC is out there I will make what ever I install and the ev I purchase go together. If you dont drive or want an ev just shut up and let the ones who do have them.I dont need you or the goverment to decide for me. for those of you who think you can stop the ev movement will find out it wont work any more we have are cars and you should see the reaction every time we show it off.If I show my leaf to 10 people here are the common reactions.and yes this is after I tell them the real information on the car!! 3- man I want one of those. 2- my wife would like that. 1-my husband might let me have one.2- I dont know but thats pretty cool!! 2- are you stupid you communist and a few other insults.now If I let you drive it the first 8 are sold, of course the last 2 dont even get a ride!!! so it looks like 20% are dead set against it and 80% are on board or can be CONVERTED.I think our odds are pretty good.an ev is ANY vehicle that can be pluged in and go battery only.I dont care if its 15 miles or 500 . A range extender is nice and I would like a volt in my fleet but 80% of what we do can be done pure electric!

 

[Nubo]

What I see is a complete refusal to consider the Leaf because of its range. Basically when I ask why someone would not consider one I get some variation of "Doesn't fit my lifestyle". QCs don't seem to resonate. The only thing that does seem to resonate is more range, and even that is pretty soft. I certainly don't see any minds being changed by telling them they could stop and get 20-40 more miles in 10-20 minutes. Right now with an ICE vehicle you get hundreds of miles in ten minutes of refueling, and that's the benchmark.

Bingo.

I can refuel my car in under 5 minutes. Waiting 20 minutes to charge for an extra 40 miles will just bring to mind buyer's remorse. Doing this repeatedly will set it in concrete.

It's the price. It's the limited range. Not-so-quick charge stations won't change the low demand. A damn plug isn't going to cause an upheaval. No one even knows or cares about this except EV enthusiasts and they've already got their cars.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. You can put 10,000 charge stations up but if someone has to sit there and wait 20 minutes, or wait for the person in front of them, then wait some more, I can't think of a worse business model to turn customers off.

With non hybrid petrol cars EPA rated at 40 mpg, priced at $10,000 less, have a near 400 mile cruising range, and can fill up in five minutes, some here are stil baffled why the general public isn't going to buy an electric car that has 1/4 the range, can take hours to charge, can't be taken to remote areas, and cost $10,000 more.

The problem Nissan is going to have with the Tennessee plant is not whether they can build enough cars. The problem is what they are going to do with a factory that builds cars that nobody wants.

Demand will continue to grow. The ability to drive comfortably without gasoline is a tremendous advantage on many levels.

Gasoline is decidedly inconvenient. In addition to the cost, pollution, disease, wars, and terrorism, there are the maintenance hassles. All this for the dubious privelege of being able to drive up to a filling station and bend over, time after time after time. Besides which, these side trips take a lot more than 5 minutes out of your day as anyone can attest whose found themselves running late only to realize they need gas. Walking out to a "pre-fueled" car is a joy and a huge convenience factor over gasoline.

And, since even the LEAF's range covers 95% of the average driving requirements, that convenience is the day-to-day reality of a LEAF owner. Is it worth taking a more leisurely approach to the occasional longer trip? I think so and as people become more familiar with the day-to-day realities of living with an electric car I think the Tennessee plant will be plenty busy.

 

[DANandNAN]

there's 1 big'mo out there for every 100 Leaf's and the sales are down ~50%. How much more proof do we need?

NO big mo close to me. World wide sales are down?

Ok, and? Does that somehow change the percentage because you don't have a big'mo near you?

Why do folks include irrelevant statistics? What does it matter if the Leaf's selling well elsewhere? If it's so relevant then charge there.

Yes, they closed the Volt factory, but there were 3X as many Volts sold than Leaf's :lol:

 

[DANandNAN]

Way to not answer my question.

Trollololol! :lol:

Jeremy

I apologize. I overestimated you and thought you had read before posting :? I never said any L3 would be cheaper to charge off of, though with more users demand charges and laws could/should change.