The Battery Replacement Thread

[RegGuheert]

Interesting. I just lost my fourth bar today, which is earlier than I expected... It will be interesting to see how Nissan handles this since I have less than two months left on my lease and I opted out of the settlement... I've already reported it to them and they "will get back to me..."

Funny I wondered what would happen had we lost the fourth bar within a few weeks of the lease ending... will be interesting to see what happens.

There may be a B0133 at play here too.

Sure, but can TomT really opt out for a future owner? I seriously doubt it.

I say turn it back in. Then repurchase it for a song with four bars gone. Then claim a new battery under the capacity warranty. And then resell it for a profit if you really do not want it!

What's really shocking is how many LEAFs have lost over 30% of their capacity in their target market of CA in fewer then three years.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I just don't how a 2011 Leaf will have zero value in 2018, assuming the battery isn't just completely dead.

I think the point is that if a MY2018 S model Leaf is out for ~$30K with a 200 mile EPA range (big "if" I know) the value for a 40-50 mile range 6-7 bar 2011 will be pretty darn low. Even a totally dead car has value greater than zero thanks to the scrap metal, but I could easily see 2011's down to 50% capacity dropping to $5k or less in 2017.

ya... no. that is not how used car values work. your analogy is as strong as a house of cards... but one of the the 3 cards at the bottom holding up the entire works is that access to "used car" dollars is equal to "new car" dollars.

guess what?? oh well you know.

so the used car market will be what people are willing to pay for a car that is reliable (within its range whatever that maybe) cheap to drive, convenient in not having to go to the gas station (this is huge among the Senior set) so the value might get to $10,000 but never lose sight of the fact that a new battery pack turns this car into a "high value" used car that can and will go in the high teens.

 

[Valdemar]

Then there is also an open question about the cost of battery replacement in 2018. If the price drops significantly or there is enough supply of reasonably priced used packs with good remaining capacity (and people figure out how to move them between cars) a battery replacement may not be seen as a big deal. And then there is gas prices, $2/gal is not going to last forever. Public charging infrastructure development too. Too many variables to make a reliable prediction, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[TomT]

I guess it was too good to be true... The ninth bar reappeared this morning... Very strange!

 

[TimLee]

Sure, but can TomT really opt out for a future owner? I seriously doubt it.

Some people that leased particularly in Phoenix lost capacity very fast, and were those pushing for early lease termination without penalty.
So clearly a person that leased was part of the class and had the right to opt out.
But I agree that it seems ridiculous that a leasee Opt Out would have any impact on future owner of the vehicle, unless they were the one that elected to pay the residual and purchase the vehicle at the end of the lease.

All other lease vehicles are owned by NMAC at the end of the lease.
It seems crazy that NMAC would sell the lease return vehicles under any basis other than whoever they sell it to has to by default be included in the Class.
Should be included in the NMAC sales contract, with whatever the orignial leasee did about Opting In having nothing to do with it.

Still seems crazy that NMAC is only offering the $5,000 residual reduction on the 2012, and apparently under short time frame deadlines, but failing badly in uniformly offering it to all people that leased a 2012.
Both 2011 and 2013 have lost value much faster than was planned by NMAC in the residuals.
Why wouldn't you treat them similarly and uniformly.
Just downright crazy.

 

[palmermd]

I guess it was too good to be true... The ninth bar reappeared this morning... Very strange!

remote reset. haha.

 

[Deleted member 770]

I guess it was too good to be true... The ninth bar reappeared this morning... Very strange!

Please DO let us know if it goes away again before your lease is up (and the stats when it does)...thanks!

 

[zack]

"so the value might get to $10,000 but never lose sight of the fact that a new battery pack turns this car into a "high value" used car that can and will go in the high teens."

Well have I got a car to sell you, in 2018. The beauty of predicting the future is it never really can be tested till you get there. Remember, peak oil was all the rage back in 2000.

You pay a premium to buy a Leaf, at least $8,000 more than a similar Versa (the perfect comparison car) and that's presuming the tax credits are applicable to you. $3/gal gas at 30mpg is $8,000. So 80k miles is when your upfront premium breaks even with your fuel averted. But only if the electricity is free! Much, much, much longer if you have to pay to for electricity at .34kWh/m = 27,200 kWh, at $.2/kWh that's $5440.

However, my four year old 2011 Leaf with 43,000 is only worth 11k right now in 2015. That's more value lost than the cost of a base model brand new Versa And my car has a newly installed battery pack. All cars depreciate down to zero, the question is how quickly. Cadillacs, really fast, Hondas, slow, but no car less than $1500 a year regardless of initial cost, until they get really old.

My Leaf's value has gone down tremendously already, that's on top of the regular wear on seats, the suspension, hoses, cooling, bearings, paint, glass, that all cars suffer. But the EV is unique in that the significant part of its drive train is heavily worn in (and in my anecdotal case at only) 37,000 miles and needed replacement (value $6000) and will again in the future. I would be surprised if you offer me $10k three years from now when the battery is again down to 70%. Or is that $10k what you'll pay me after I put in the $6,000 battery?

A 7 year old 2008 Versa with 80k miles today is only $6000 and comes with a 400 mile range and another 120,000 miles of likely reliable miles. My Leaf in 2018? Not a chance. It'll need continuous battery investment. And if battery cost and range improves, so what? The cost of all those new EVs being sold will lower too. So if the new 2018 Leaf costs what the new 2018 Versa costs, then why would you buy a seven year old EV?

Own the car, drive the car, like the car, but it can't be defended on cost versus miles of transport provided.

 

[abasile]

Own the car, drive the car, like the car, but it can't be defended on cost versus miles of transport provided.

The wildcard here is battery longevity. If the newer "lizard" batteries hold up much better, then the economics won't be so bad. Or, if you're in a cool climate and drive a lot of miles (within range, of course) then the numbers are actually pretty good. Of course, today's low gas prices make the LEAF harder to justify based on cost. Thankfully, EVs are easy to justify for plenty of other reasons, including putting us on a path toward a better future for our children.

 

[RegGuheert]

However, my four year old 2011 Leaf with 43,000 is only worth 11k right now in 2015. That's more value lost than the cost of a base model brand new Versa And my car has a newly installed battery pack.

That's the trade-in value based on the fact that most LEAFs of that vintage have badly-degraded batteries due to the original battery having a low durability. I would argue that in reality, YOUR LEAF now has a HIGHER value to you than when it was new, since it has a more durable battery.

You only take the financial hit if you choose to trade it in at a value way below that for your car.

How long will your new battery last? No one currently knows (except perhaps Nissan).

 

[LeftieBiker]

The Versa isn't directly comparable to the Leaf. It's smaller and less luxurious. Try the Civic LX.

 

[zack]

2011 versa had marginally different length width and wheelbase than Leaf but with twice the cargo space. I think it didnt have nav available, but otherwise fitted much the same in the 1.8sl at $17,800. And it was a second faster 0-60.

$25k buys a top of the line Accord. That is a higher class of car.

Thanks for the tip, pretty certain the car comparison is fair though still a bit confused on the forum.

 

[GerryAZ]

The Versa is a good small car, but it is not comparable to the LEAF. It is narrower, shorter, and has fewer amenities and less luggage space. It is classed as a compact car while the LEAF is classed as a mid size.

Regarding battery replacement and depreciation, a new battery restores the car to like new condition because there are very few mechanical parts to wear out. Unfortunately, lease returns on used car lots have greatly reduced the book value on used LEAFs. Therefore, it is difficult to quantify and collect the added value of a new battery during insurance replacement or trade-in negotiations.

Gerry

 

[dhanson865]

The Versa is a good small car, but it is not comparable to the LEAF. It is narrower, shorter, and has fewer amenities and less luggage space. It is classed as a compact car while the LEAF is classed as a mid size.

The confusing thing about the Versa is it is AND isn't a compact car.

There are at least

older Versa with 4dr
newer Versa with 4dr
older Versa with hatchback
newer Versa with hatchback

guess how many of those configs are listed as compact.

EPA size classes are based on total cubic feet (passenger + cargo space, hereafter listed as ft3)
Minicompact <85
Subcompact 85 to 99
Compact 100 to 109
Mid-Size 110 to 119
Large 120 or more

now lets compare Leaf to Versa in ft3.

Leaf 113 ft3 (90+23) on the low end of Mid-Size

older Versa 4 door 108 ft3 (94+14) on the high end of Compact. Just 2 ft3 short of mid-size
newer Versa 4 door 105 ft3 (90+15) firmly in the middle of Compact, smaller than it's older version

older Versa hatchback 113 ft3 (95+18) same as Leaf on the total, more passenger, less cargo, on the low end of Mid-Size
newer Versa hatchback 113 ft3 (94+19) same as Leaf on the total, more passenger, less cargo, on the low end of Mid-Size

I'll agree I don't think of Versa as mid sized but I wonder what the mix is in the US between hatchback Versas and 4 door Versas. Whatever the mix the official word is

Leaf is mid-size
Versa Hatchback is mid-size
Versa 4 door is compact

numbers from http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=33581&id=30397&id=24394&id=30979" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; on the specs tab.

I'll leave this Wikipedia explanation of the cut over

Nissan Versa is an automobile nameplate used by the Japanese manufacturer Nissan in North America and Australia for the following models:

Nissan Tiida: marketed as the Nissan Versa from 2006 to 2012, the sedan, and from 2006 to 2013, the hatchback version.
Nissan Latio: marketed as the Nissan Versa sedan since 2012.

 

[GerryAZ]

The Versa is a good small car, but it is not comparable to the LEAF. It is narrower, shorter, and has fewer amenities and less luggage space. It is classed as a compact car while the LEAF is classed as a mid size.

The confusing thing about the Versa is it is AND isn't a compact car.

There are at least

older Versa with 4dr
newer Versa with 4dr
older Versa with hatchback
newer Versa with hatchback

guess how many of those configs are listed as compact.

EPA size classes are based on total cubic feet (passenger + cargo space, hereafter listed as ft3)
Minicompact <85
Subcompact 85 to 99
Compact 100 to 109
Mid-Size 110 to 119
Large 120 or more

now lets compare Leaf to Versa in ft3.

Leaf 113 ft3 (90+23) on the low end of Mid-Size

older Versa with 4dr 108 ft3 (94+14) on the high end of Compact just 2 ft3 short of mid-size
newer Versa with 4dr 105 ft3 (90+15) firmly in the middle of Compact

older Versa with hatchback 113 ft3 (95+18) same as Leaf on the total, more passenger, less cargo, on the low end of Mid-Size
newer Versa with hatchback 113 ft3 (94+19) same as Leaf on the total, more passenger, less cargo, on the low end of Mid-Size

I'll agree I don't think of Versa as mid sized but I wonder what the mix is in the US between hatchback Versas and 4 door Versas. Whatever the mix the official word is

Versa Hatchback is mid-size
Versa 4 door is compact

numbers from http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=33581&id=30397&id=24394&id=30979" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; on the specs tab.

I'll leave this Wikipedia explanation of the cut over

Nissan Versa is an automobile nameplate used by the Japanese manufacturer Nissan in North America and Australia for the following models:

Nissan Tiida: marketed as the Nissan Versa from 2006 to 2012, the sedan, and from 2006 to 2013, the hatchback version.
Nissan Latio: marketed as the Nissan Versa sedan since 2012.

I don't want to hijack this thread too much so just a quick reply: I am driving a 2015 Versa Note hatchback loaner from the dealer while waiting for my 2015 SL to arrive. The window sticker is in the glove box and it clearly labels the Versa Note hatchback as a compact. The luggage are is quite a bit smaller than my 2011 LEAF. I have not been carrying passengers so I cannot comment on passenger space/comfort.

Gerry

 

[dhanson865]

go figure, like I said before Nissan Versa is and isn't a compact car and mid-size car.

 

[TimLee]

However, my four year old 2011 Leaf with 43,000 is only worth 11k right now in 2015. That's more value lost than the cost of a base model brand new Versa And my car has a newly installed battery pack.

That's the trade-in value based on the fact that most LEAFs of that vintage have badly-degraded batteries due to the original battery having a low durability. I would argue that in reality, YOUR LEAF now has a HIGHER value to you than when it was new, since it has a more durable battery.

You only take the financial hit if you choose to trade it in at a value way below that for your car.

How long will your new battery last? No one currently knows (except perhaps Nissan).

Zack is making a very valid point that the used vehicle market is left with no good means to fully understand and value the battery condition.
Zack got a capacity warranty replacement at 37,500 miles, 38 months (May 2014).
Hard to know what that battery is. Probably 2013 / 2014 chemistry which most say is some better than 2011 / 2012 and some claim is markedly better.
Not clear whether it is 2013 configuration with adapters for mounting or possible 2011 / 2012 configuration.
And the valid complaint is that Nissan and the other electric vehicle manufacturers have failed to provide any detailed information for the market to understand the battery condition and the real value of the vehicle.

That is a big problem for the used electric vehicles market, one the OEMs should have recognized would be a problem and should have done something about.
Nissan did provide capacity bars, but made them non-linear. And they almost run from talking about exactly what they mean.
And then they left their Consult 3 with the ability to mess even that up with no warning for the potential buyer if a CLEAR LONG TERM CAPACITY DATA reset has been done.
Overall one real big mess for the used electric vehicle market :!:

One positive thing for Zack, the revised class action settlement might give him the chance for it to be changed to the heat resistant battery.
Possibly like the heat resistant battery vouchers Nissan talked about in August 2013 and then quit talking about.

 

[zack]

go figure, like I said before Nissan Versa is and isn't a compact car and mid-size car.

Ok, I believe, that you all believe your Leafs aren't electrified overpriced replicas of the 2011 Versa Hatchback 1.8SL. It's a small Rogue, is that it? The rest of the used car buying world may not agree, whatever.

Does the 2011 Mitsubishi Lancer Sportback answer? Much better looking than the Leaf, better brakes, MSRP $17,200, more leg, hip and shoulder room, longer, 1.5 seconds faster 0-60, all the same standard features, 5x the range, 2x the cargo, current bluebook at 45k miles is $8,000. Or pick the Dodge Caliber, ditto, etc, resale $8200.

These were comparable vehicles, the Leaf's financials are abysmal at net tax credit price, and though it's true that "no buyer paid 35,000" Nissan did actually collect that much. The money came from somewhere in the Fed budget. So the Leaf really does sell for $35,000. That's twice as much as that Lancer Sportback that will be close to but not yet in the junkyard in 2025 with 200,000 miles.

 

[WetEV]

in the junkyard in 2025 with 200,000 miles.

I'm hoping my Leaf will last to 2035 and I'll hit 200,000 miles, and it will be the most economical car to drive over that 20 years.

On the second battery, to be sure, and in the cool PNW. Original battery is only good for ~100k miles around here, adding twice as much to the cost of driving ($0.05 per mile) than electric power ($0.025 per mile).

Leaf viewed as "will this be cheaper in the long run than a Honda Civic" is a niche at best. Depends of lots of things we can't know, like the price of gasoline. Not a chance in AZ or TX. Even the warming climate might end hope of the title of most economical car... Yesterday was a record high temperature for the day.

Yet the dollar cost isn't the only thing.

 

[JohnOver]

I'm at the dealer getting my 60,000 mile "checkup". I have only lost 2 bars so they won't give me a new battery. Since my commute (home) is 34 miles and 2000' of climb up the mountain, If I charge to 100%, I have 9 miles (or so) left on the GOM. So I am definitely thinking about replacing the battery with the 2015 version, which would get me back to where I was... and another 60,000 miles. (LEAF Spy Pro says I have 76% SOH, 5 QC, 5442L1/L2)

I usually keep my cars for 100 -120,000 miles, so this would get me to the mythical 200+ range LEAF (or maybe more from other manufacturers).

Am I nuts?