Thoughts on keeping leaf vs upgrading

[golfcart]

The Kona Electric, Niro EV, and Soul EV apparently are all built on the same platform and will likely have the same battery pack options. So, if one of those appeals to you and it's available in your market, then definitely consider them.

Damn, those look pretty sweet. They area little more than i need but for the right price those would be great options.

 

[golfcart]

What I meant was the 2018 value would drop considerably once the 2019 came out with the longer range battery.
so if you wait until 2019, and buy a 2018, its value drops big time due to the longer range battery on the new car, whenever that comes out.

I gotcha, we're thinking the exact same thing here. I'm hoping that's how it shakes out. Good advice.

 

[BillHolz]

Hello neighbor, I originally bought my 2015SV with a similar commute as you in mind. I was L2 charging every day either at home or near work. I now work closer to home and can get by with charging every other day at the solar powered charging station at work. I am still at 12 bars with 31K miles and plan on keeping it until it is no longer useful. I would like to get a longer range EV with QC but am waiting for the prices to drop.

 

[golfcart]

Hello neighbor, I originally bought my 2015SV with a similar commute as you in mind. I was L2 charging every day either at home or near work. I now work closer to home and can get by with charging every other day at the solar powered charging station at work. I am still at 12 bars with 31K miles and plan on keeping it until it is no longer useful. I would like to get a longer range EV with QC but am waiting for the prices to drop.

Hey, another 757 leaf... Good to see there are a few of us on the forum.

You do raise an interesting point, maybe i should just lobby my employer for a plug at the office. My car sits there 8.5 hours a day if I could even get a 120V outlet I could make my commute for the next 10 years. That would be the cheapest option by far. Hell, I could buy the evse for them and still come out ahead in the long run.

 

[LeftieBiker]

A 2015 Leaf that hasn't yet dropped the first bar is worth more than one with 11 bars. I suggest the OP sell it now and get a 2018. Just be honest about the battery stats with any buyers and call it "11+ bars."

It just dropped last week that's what got me thinking about this. So I'll advertise it as an 11 bar car. I was still getting 75-80 miles of range this summer going 60 on the interstate. Thanks for the suggestion I am leaning towards that option if a good deal comes along.

Sorry about that misreading. In this case, advertise it as "a FULL 11 bars."

 

[GRA]

The full EV tax credit ($7.5K) is scheduled to expire for Chevy on March 31, 2019.

That's not correct. GM had not hit 200K sales at the end of Q3; it looks like they will this quarter (2018 Q4). If they do, then the full credit will be available for two more quarters, or until June 30 2019 (end of Q2).

No, that's not how it works - rcedwards has it right. The tax credit starts phasing out at the beginning of the second quarter following the quarter when 200k is reached. GM will reach 200k in either November or December (Q4) unless they withhold sales (which is unlikely), so the credit will begin to phase out (drop to 50%) at the start of Q2, April 1st, 2019.

 

[golfcart]

Sorry about that misreading. In this case, advertise it as "a FULL 11 bars."

No worries, I wrote a novel I don't expect folks to read every word.

 

[SageBrush]

Another option: wait for the 60 kWh LEAF to come to market and pick up a discounted 40 kWh LEAF. That will cover your 60 mile commute in your winter a decade from now.

 

[tesleaf]

Hello neighbor, I originally bought my 2015SV with a similar commute as you in mind. I was L2 charging every day either at home or near work. I now work closer to home and can get by with charging every other day at the solar powered charging station at work. I am still at 12 bars with 31K miles and plan on keeping it until it is no longer useful. I would like to get a longer range EV with QC but am waiting for the prices to drop.

Hey, another 757 leaf... Good to see there are a few of us on the forum.

You do raise an interesting point, maybe i should just lobby my employer for a plug at the office. My car sits there 8.5 hours a day if I could even get a 120V outlet I could make my commute for the next 10 years. That would be the cheapest option by far. Hell, I could buy the evse for them and still come out ahead in the long run.

If you can make it happen, it will be the best option.

 

[LeftieBiker]

If you can make it happen, it will be the best option.

The best option for commuting, anyway. I was finding my reduced range frustrating while my '13 was still at 12 bars (87% SOH) even though I could still go many places as long as I charged at least a little while traveling.

 

[golfcart]

I was finding my reduced range frustrating while my '13 was still at 12 bars (87% SOH) even though I could still go many places as long as I charged at least a little while traveling.

That is a fair point. I've always had mixed feelings about the larger battery thing since the best environmental solution is to drive the car you have with the smallest battery that meets your needs but at the same time it would be nice have a vehicle that I can treat like a "normal" car that doesn't require advance planning to make a detour or drive to lunch.

As it stands right now, in the winter when we get days in the 30s or 40s I typically bundle up, turn on the seat and steering wheel heaters, defrost as little as necessary to maintain visibility, and still arrive home from work with 10-15% SOC at best. I already cannot reliably make my commute without hitting LBW every day and with the heater already puts me at VLBW or worse.

It would be nice to actually run the heater when I need it, be able to grab my kid right after work and go do something outside of a 5 mile radius, or run some errands on my way home without having to stop and QC. These things don't come up that often, and I typically can accommodate when they do come up, but they require a good deal of planning and rely on the flexibility my job provides.

LeftieBiker, your signature says that you have a Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot. What upsides and downsides (if any besides cost) have you found since upgrading to the 2018. I am looking (from afar) at a 2018 SV with winter package and SV tech package so it would be very similar to your car aside from the leather and upgraded stereo I think. It is even that Scarlet Ember color, which I am not that stoked about since I really like the look of the car in the two tone white/black and the silver, but I think I could live with it.

 

[oz10k]

You are beyond the steepest depreciation for your current Leaf. The value will continue to slowly decline, but it's not going to take a steep drop just because you've dropped to 11 bars (or when it drops to 10). To avoid the steep depreciation of your next EV, consider keeping your Leaf until you can buy a used EV that meets your range needs (e.g. a 12 bar 30kWh Leaf, or a used 40kWh Leaf or a Bolt).

There is a pretty interesting article on Clean Technica about how the car ownership model may be changing as EVs become more popular and their range keeps increasing. It's worth the time to read, but in summary they think the trends will be:

• Higher depreciation/lower residual value of EVs.
  A broader shift to leasing and subscription models.
  A significant increase in consumer preference to buy used versus new cars.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/2...iptions-growth-in-the-used-car-market-part-2/

 

[powersurge]

I am in exactly the same situation as the original poster. My 15 is doing fine. I will never go back to ICE cars again. My plan is to not take ANY depreciation hit on this EV. I will continue using it until the battery don't go no more. I will drive the heck out of it for 2-4 more years, and then give it to my teen son for college.... If the battery needs replacing, I will do it and have my kids discover the joy of NO GAS.... (and get another 100K miles out of the car).

Then I will buy a new 60-80 KWH Leaf, which will still be affordable at that time...

PS - I think that the car companies want you to be fearful of your car being obsolete, and jump from car to car as they get better. That way, YOU pay many thousands in depreciation. This happened with computers in the 1908s and 90s, when every year, they came out with a slightly more powerful computer. And I was guilty of constantly upgrading equipment or the entire computers. I spent $10K or more in computers I really did not need to do. Now, I use the computer and only think of upgrading when it ABSOLUTELY needs to be replaced...

 

[jlv]

No, that's not how it works - rcedwards has it right.

I stand corrected. Thanks!

 

[golfcart]

You are beyond the steepest depreciation for your current Leaf. The value will continue to slowly decline, but it's not going to take a steep drop just because you've dropped to 11 bars (or when it drops to 10). To avoid the steep depreciation of your next EV, consider keeping your Leaf until you can buy a used EV that meets your range needs (e.g. a 12 bar 30kWh Leaf, or a used 40kWh Leaf or a Bolt).

There is a pretty interesting article on Clean Technica about how the car ownership model may be changing as EVs become more popular and their range keeps increasing. It's worth the time to read, but in summary they think the trends will be:

• Higher depreciation/lower residual value of EVs.
  A broader shift to leasing and subscription models.
  A significant increase in consumer preference to buy used versus new cars.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/2...iptions-growth-in-the-used-car-market-part-2/

I agree that waiting a year or two for a used 2018 would be a great option if I can get there. My primary concern is the car not meeting my basic commuting needs by next winter. My secondary concern is that there is an inflection point where nobody will want my car because the range has gotten too low to be useful to anyone except a retiree or a high school kid.

That article seems suspect to me because they don't include the tax incentives or actual sales prices when they calculate depreciation. It is just based on MSRP new and blue book value of used cars.

The sticker price on my leaf was $33,000 but I paid $23,400 for my leaf brand new in 2015. I financed it at 0% and got a $7500 tax credit (which I put in a CD and have been earning interest on). My net cost on the car was $23,400 - $7500 = $15,900 brand new. KBB private party selling price range is $10,000 - $12,000 for my model with my options. That means, in terms of the true cost to me, the car has depreciated between 25% - 38% in 3.5 years. That is a tremendous value for a brand new car based on that same article. It depreciated less than a pickup truck which are great at holding their value.

 

[smkettner]

If you are tired of battery degrade issues I would go right to a Tesla Model 3 or a GM Bolt.

 

[oz10k]

You don't need to wait for a 2018 Leaf, an 11 or 12 bar 2016 Leaf with the 30kWh battery should meet your needs. They are out there, check TrueCar, Carmax or Carvana. Selling your old one and buying another used one should cost you $2,000 - $3,000. Much less than buying a new car.

I agree the article did not account for the tax credit. And I agree that 25% - 38% depreciation for 3 years is excellent. But for your next car, consider the depreciation if you buy a new EV (maybe again ~ 25% - 38%) versus if you buy a used one. Because the used one has already deprecated so much, the price should decline much less.

I suspect the article did not account for the tax credit because they were talking about the trend over a longer period of time (maybe the next decade or two), when the tax credits will have expired for all manufacturers. Still, it would have been nice if they addressed it.

Ron

 

[golfcart]

If you are tired of battery degrade issues I would go right to a Tesla Model 3 or a GM Bolt.

Too expensive for me and way more range than I need. They are nice but I'm not getting either for around $20k after the tax credit.

 

[golfcart]

You don't need to wait for a 2018 Leaf, an 11 or 12 bar 2016 Leaf with the 30kWh battery should meet your needs. They are out there, check TrueCar, Carmax or Carvana. Selling your old one and buying another used one should cost you $2,000 - $3,000. Much less than buying a new car.

You are absolutely right, that probably is the cheapest option to meet my needs. It just doesn't feel like an upgrade at all which makes it hard to swallow.

I think part of me just likes the 2018 since it is way better looking and has some cool bells and whistles. If i can get the 2018 for $20k after the tax I'd probably rather have that than a 2016/17 for $15k used.

You bring up good points though I need to research those 30kWh leafs and their battery quality.

 

[LeftieBiker]

LeftieBiker, your signature says that you have a Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot. What upsides and downsides (if any besides cost) have you found since upgrading to the 2018. I am looking (from afar) at a 2018 SV with winter package and SV tech package so it would be very similar to your car aside from the leather and upgraded stereo I think. It is even that Scarlet Ember color, which I am not that stoked about since I really like the look of the car in the two tone white/black and the silver, but I think I could live with it.

I haven't yet driven the car in frigid weather, but the biggest difference is no worries at all about range - and I don't even charge above 80% most of the time. It is also faster. Pro Pilot is a mixed bag: it makes driving easier but it also can't be trusted.