TSLA corporate outlook

[dhanson865]

Now that I've had time to look at Model X reliability

Are you still driving your Bolt ?

CR needs a new category: dumpster fire vehicles

:roll: Yep.

i'm not particularly worried at the moment. The My Chevrolet app still shows no recalls for my vehicle and I need to check NHSTA/safercar.gov w/my VIN again (had done it a few days back and it showed no recalls). I also need to see if I can find the battery pack part number label. It's possible mine has cells or a pack not from Ochang, South Korea. Whether or not only packs/cells have whatever issue that has caused the fires is still unclear.

I am now only charging to 90% SoC and because I charge away from home anyway (and not often), it's somewhere below 90% by the time I arrive home. I'm now at 76% SoC.

That said, if more Bolt fires occur with cars below 90% SoC and we hit say 100 vs. the 5 we know of now, then I'd be getting worried.

10 fires now, 1 after both software updates, 1 with the first software update. The last few all happening well below 90% SOC.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BoltEV/comments/og8hy6/indepth_analysis_of_the_latest_chevy_bolt_fire/ (July fire)

and

https://www.reddit.com/r/BoltEV/comments/n71r5a/may_1st_bolt_fire_had_the_temporary_fix/ (may 1 fire with video, happened about 75% SOC)

if you want a TLR just watch the video clip https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/05/180761095_220474169418131_4294827493073622720_n.webm and know that happened on May 1st with a car that wasn't fully charged and had the first patch applied.

So my question isn't are you still driving it? Because I feel it's safe enough to drive no problem. All the fires have happened after charging while the car is in park and sitting still. I wouldn't even worry about what percentage you charge it to. Apparently anything over 70% is high enough to start a fire on the batteries in question. I just wouldn't leave it unattended while plugged in and wouldn't leave it unattended while in a garage or near any structure I cared about.

So my questions would be more like, Are you still parking it in a garage? Is it within 20 feet of a structure that can burn down or any other flammable materials.

 

[cwerdna]

i'm not particularly worried at the moment. The My Chevrolet app still shows no recalls for my vehicle and I need to check NHSTA/safercar.gov w/my VIN again (had done it a few days back and it showed no recalls). I also need to see if I can find the battery pack part number label. It's possible mine has cells or a pack not from Ochang, South Korea. Whether or not only packs/cells have whatever issue that has caused the fires is still unclear.

I am now only charging to 90% SoC and because I charge away from home anyway (and not often), it's somewhere below 90% by the time I arrive home. I'm now at 76% SoC.

That said, if more Bolt fires occur with cars below 90% SoC and we hit say 100 vs. the 5 we know of now, then I'd be getting worried.

...
if you want a TLR just watch the video clip https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/05/180761095_220474169418131_4294827493073622720_n.webm and know that happened on May 1st with a car that wasn't fully charged and had the first patch applied.

So my question isn't are you still driving it? Because I feel it's safe enough to drive no problem. All the fires have happened after charging while the car is in park and sitting still. I wouldn't even worry about what percentage you charge it to. Apparently anything over 70% is high enough to start a fire on the batteries in question. I just wouldn't leave it unattended while plugged in and wouldn't leave it unattended while in a garage or near any structure I cared about.

So my questions would be more like, Are you still parking it in a garage? Is it within 20 feet of a structure that can burn down or any other flammable materials.

Yes. I'm still driving it. There is no other car here in my household of 1.

My Bolt still is and was never part of the battery fire recall. On/around the time the final remedy for recalled '19 Bolts (not mine) appeared, a not a recall a firmware update appeared in the My Chevrolet app for my car. I referred to it at https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=606918#p606918. I have an appointment to have it done this Friday. And yes, it might be insufficient to detect these latent manufacturing defects.

Yes. It's still parked in a garage. I almost never charge at home. It's also almost never plugged in at home either. It might be plugged in if the battery temp will rise above 80 F and I want battery cooling to run (see https://www.chevybolt.org/threads/battery-conditioning.33279/#post-512173). I did that last night w/target charge level set to 40% and car's SoC way above 40%. So, thermal management ran (it definitely kicked on) and car didn't charge since I have no reason to pay PG&E to charge my car. I will be at the office on Monday for free L2 juice there.

It's almost always charged either at public charging or workplace charging (for the times I've been heading to the office). I'm still not particularly worried. However, if non-recalled '19 or newer Bolts have battery fires and their packs do NOT come from OChang, South Korea and these "advanced" diagnostics have been applied, then I would be getting more worried.

BTW, the May 1st fire vehicle only had the temp patch that was an SoC limiter (roughly equivalent to turning on hilltop reserve). It did not add any sort of extra monitoring or diagnostics. I am still not clear at this point (esp. the July fire) if they were due to the battery pack or something else. For example, the service disconnect is under the rear seat (https://www.chevybolt.org/threads/2017-bolt-ev-service-disconnect-fuse-bulletin.29581/#post-433309). It is possible these fires are due to something else or some other condition/defect within the pack.

Also, off the top of my head, I can't speak to your number of 10. https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2020/RCLRPT-20V701-7407.PDF from April 29, 2021 points to 5 battery-related fires. If you add the two incidents you mention and assume really were battery-related, that'd make 7.

 

[dhanson865]

I now understand why the market cap set by Tesla shareholders is 5x greater than the market cap set by VW shareholders.

I'll drop this quote from TMC user "The Accountant" here

Let's take a moment to marvel at this:
- Tesla is expanding Fremont's production capacity.
- Building out the Kato Road facility
- Significantly expanding Shanghai
- Building a new facility in Austin
- Building a new facility in Berlin

..and
- they are not funding this with a Capital Raise
- they are not funding it with Debt
- they are not drawing down their Cash on the balance sheet.

Tesla is funding all this with cash generated from Operations. Yep, the company that "loses money on every car it sells", generates enough cash each quarter from operations to fund this massive expansion.
Even after funding all these Capital Expenditures, they still have cash left over (Free Cash Flow). In fact, since Q2 2020, they will have generated Free Cash Flow of $4.4B by Q2 2021.

from https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5696583/

 

[GaleHawkins]

WOW after Berlin and Austin come on line is their growth rate will be even greater if they desire.

 

[danrjones]

One of my gripes with Tesla. But my other question, why would his insurance not cover the damage? Is it normal for comprehensive insurance to not cover road damage?

I'll say, if my insurance company tried to deny me on a claim like that, I'd probably torch their office. :lol:


https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a-700-fix-is-why-right-to-repair-matters

 

[dhanson865]

After all the years of FUD about Tesla fires, Chevy is apparently dealing with the real thing.

JULY 14 2021 IMPORTANT UPDATE FROM GENERAL MOTORS

General Motors has been notified of two recent Chevrolet Bolt EV fire incidents in vehicles that were remedied as part of the safety recall announced in November 2020. Out of an abundance of caution, we are asking owners of 2017-2019 Chevrolet Bolt EVs who were part of the recall population to park their vehicles outdoors immediately after charging and not leave their vehicles charging overnight while we investigate these incidents.

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
I've posted the above Bolt news over at https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18907&p=607077#p607077. Discussion of the Bolt portion can continue there.

 

[danrjones]

Tesla is going bump up their charging speeds.

https://electrek.co/2021/07/15/tesla-upgrading-supercharger-network-to-300-kw-faster-charging/

 

[GRA]

After all the years of FUD about Tesla fires, Chevy is apparently dealing with the real thing. [Snip]

How are reports of actual Tesla battery fires FUD? Tesla took steps to limit the chances of that happening by reducing max. voltage and/or charging rate, without telling owners, got sued for doing so and lost in Norway, and maybe elsewhere. That's fact, not FUD. GM is now suffering fires, as has Hyundai, and they and any other manufacturer who does need to fix the problem.

 

[dhanson865]

After all the years of FUD about Tesla fires, Chevy is apparently dealing with the real thing. [Snip]

How are reports of actual Tesla battery fires FUD? Tesla took steps to limit the chances of that happening by reducing max. voltage and/or charging rate, without telling owners, got sued for doing so and lost in Norway, and maybe elsewhere. That's fact, not FUD. GM is now suffering fires, as has Hyundai, and they and any other manufacturer who does need to fix the problem.

The majority of "tesla fires" occurred when a high speed collision happened. The majority of "bolt fires" happened while parked just after charging completed.

I don't consider hitting a brick wall at 100 mph a risk in my garage. I do consider plugging in a 2017-2019 Bolt in my garage to be a high risk.

Also the number of bolt fires in the last 12 months exceeds the number of tesla fires in the last 10 years. That's a considerable difference in number of cases. If you exclude the high speed collisions the ratio is even higher with the last year of bolt fires outdoing Tesla's entire history.

so the FUD is when the reporting or posts about Tesla fires are ignoring the cause and/or overplaying the risk to the consumer. The FUD about Tesla fires was spread over 10+ years, the issues you brought up about reducing max voltages is quite recent by comparison.

 

[GRA]

After all the years of FUD about Tesla fires, Chevy is apparently dealing with the real thing. [Snip]

How are reports of actual Tesla battery fires FUD? Tesla took steps to limit the chances of that happening by reducing max. voltage and/or charging rate, without telling owners, got sued for doing so and lost in Norway, and maybe elsewhere. That's fact, not FUD. GM is now suffering fires, as has Hyundai, and they and any other manufacturer who does need to fix the problem.

The majority of "tesla fires" occurred when a high speed collision happened. The majority of "bolt fires" happened while parked just after charging completed.

I don't consider hitting a brick wall at 100 mph a risk in my garage. I do consider plugging in a 2017-2019 Bolt in my garage to be a high risk.

Also the number of bolt fires in the last 12 months exceeds the number of tesla fires in the last 10 years. That's a considerable difference in number of cases. If you exclude the high speed collisions the ratio is even higher with the last year of bolt fires outdoing Tesla's entire history.

so the FUD is when the reporting or posts about Tesla fires are ignoring the cause and/or overplaying the risk to the consumer. The FUD about Tesla fires was spread over 10+ years, the issues you brought up about reducing max voltages is quite recent by comparison.

I recall several fires in parked Teslas, which were the ones I was referring to. There was video of one cooking off in a public underground garage in South Korea? [Edit: it was Shanghai, in Apr. 2019: https://youtu.be/p4Qhr_LLoJ0 ] as well as some others in home garages. I agree that the ones after major crashes don't fall into the same category, although they obviously have implications for first responders.

 

[cwerdna]

Also the number of bolt fires in the last 12 months exceeds the number of tesla fires in the last 10 years. That's a considerable difference in number of cases. If you exclude the high speed collisions the ratio is even higher with the last year of bolt fires outdoing Tesla's entire history.

The bolded part I highly doubt.

I list 3 incidents at https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=20321&p=594152&hilit=major+accident+fire%2A#p594152. https://www.thedrive.com/news/28420/parked-teslas-keep-catching-on-fire-randomly-and-theres-no-recall-in-sight includes ~8 incidents (spans only 2016 to 2019), none of which involved any sort of major crash. Most were parked.

https://electrek.co/2016/08/15/tesla-model-s-catches-fire-test-drive-france/ from 2016 was from a test drive.

There are plenty more from major accidents and not so major... https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=22748&p=563955&hilit=unstable#p563955 has a few from no accident and some from accidents. https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/tesla-model-catch-fire/story?id=20462128 from 2013 was what prompted shields in 2014: https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-adds-titanium-underbody-shield-and-aluminum-deflector-plates-model-s.

That said, the ratio of confirmed Bolt battery fires vs. its vehicle population is admittedly rather poor right now.

 

[dhanson865]

Also the number of bolt fires in the last 12 months exceeds the number of tesla fires in the last 10 years. That's a considerable difference in number of cases. If you exclude the high speed collisions the ratio is even higher with the last year of bolt fires outdoing Tesla's entire history.

The bolded part I highly doubt.

Go ahead and count them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicle_fire_incidents#Tesla_Model_S,_3,_X,_Y vs the 13 fires from the bolt in the last 12 months.

Doesn't look like 10 years now so either the page has changed or I miscounted the other day.

 

[WetEV]

Go ahead and count them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicle_fire_incidents#Tesla_Model_S,_3,_X,_Y vs the 13 fires from the bolt in the last 12 months.

Doesn't look like 10 years now so either the page has changed or I miscounted the other day.

Zero LEAF battery fires to date.

 

[dhanson865]

Go ahead and count them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicle_fire_incidents#Tesla_Model_S,_3,_X,_Y vs the 13 fires from the bolt in the last 12 months.

Doesn't look like 10 years now so either the page has changed or I miscounted the other day.

Zero LEAF battery fires to date.

"On September 1, 2015 a Nissan Leaf caught fire and was destroyed on a road in Flower Mound, Texas without causing injuries. The cause of the fire was not confirmed."

Might as well call it zero even if that one possible case was a battery fire. Considering the number of Leafs in existence 1 is in the realm of a rounding error.

If only my 2012 wasn't down to 6 bars (about 50 miles usable range) and didn't have a failed airbag occupancy sensor I'd be happy to drive it longer.

 

[WetEV]

Go ahead and count them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicle_fire_incidents#Tesla_Model_S,_3,_X,_Y vs the 13 fires from the bolt in the last 12 months.

Doesn't look like 10 years now so either the page has changed or I miscounted the other day.

Zero LEAF battery fires to date.

On September 1, 2015 a Nissan Leaf caught fire and was destroyed on a road in Flower Mound, Texas without causing injuries. The cause of the fire was not confirmed.

Which didn't seem to involve the traction battery. Fire started and burned in the cabin, not under the car. I don't recall ever hearing of the actual cause of the fire.

https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=20476

 

[dhanson865]

Zero LEAF battery fires to date.

On September 1, 2015 a Nissan Leaf caught fire and was destroyed on a road in Flower Mound, Texas without causing injuries. The cause of the fire was not confirmed.

Which didn't seem to involve the traction battery. Fire started and burned in the cabin, not under the car. I don't recall ever hearing of the actual cause of the fire.

https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=20476

https://mynissanleaf.com/search.php?author_id=17019&sr=posts owner says the cause was never determined, can't rule out HV issue.

 

[WetEV]

On September 1, 2015 a Nissan Leaf caught fire and was destroyed on a road in Flower Mound, Texas without causing injuries. The cause of the fire was not confirmed.

Which didn't seem to involve the traction battery. Fire started and burned in the cabin, not under the car. I don't recall ever hearing of the actual cause of the fire.

https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=20476

https://mynissanleaf.com/search.php?author_id=17019&sr=posts owner says the cause was never determined, can't rule out HV issue.

HV issues include more than battery. Rat chewing the insulation off of one or more the HV cables leading to an arc??? Inverter losing cooling and melting down??? Heater or AC failures (both of which get HV)???

We will likely never know. One in 500,000+ cars had something go very badly wrong.

Again, the something that went wrong doesn't appear to be the battery as there isn't fire below the car. The fire seems mostly limited to the cabin and perhaps under the hood.

 

[GRA]

ABG:

Tesla reaches milestone with first $1 billion quarterly profit
That's 10 times the profit it made in the same quarter last year

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/07/26/tesla-1-billion-dollar-quarterly-earnings/


Surprised no one else has posted this before now. Good for them.

 

[GaleHawkins]

Go ahead and count them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicle_fire_incidents#Tesla_Model_S,_3,_X,_Y vs the 13 fires from the bolt in the last 12 months.

Doesn't look like 10 years now so either the page has changed or I miscounted the other day.

Zero LEAF battery fires to date.

SOH dies too fast. No spark No fire.