TSLA corporate outlook

[SageBrush]

$35K Tesla now available. Guess that hoax is over.

Don't worry, the haters will find something else to whine about.

 

[WetEV]

Don't worry, the haters will find something else to whine about.

Like Tesla's not expecting a first quarter profit?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/elon-musk-tesla-not-profitable-in-q1.html

 

[lorenfb]

$35K Tesla now available. Guess that hoax is over.

Yes, but what will be the delivery date, e.g. maybe early 2020, right? If a < Q3 delivery is quoted, then this basically confirms
that the demand for a > $45K M3 is very marginal at best, and the 300K+ backlog is imaginary and a joke.

 

[SageBrush]

$35K Tesla now available. Guess that hoax is over.

Yes, but what will be the delivery date, e.g. maybe early 2020, right?

Wrong. Again

By 2020 or 2021 I expect Tesla to produce 0.5 Million Model 3 and 1.0 Million Model Y a year.
Not bad for a company that the trolls have been declaring dead for oh ... 15 years or so.

Can we make up a list of all the forum bozos and trolls who were positive that the the $35k Model 3 would never see the light of day ?

 

[Zythryn]

$35K Tesla now available. Guess that hoax is over.

Yes, but what will be the delivery date, e.g. maybe early 2020, right?

Wrong. Again

By 2020 or 2021 I expect Tesla to produce 0.5 Million Model 3 and 1.0 Million Model Y a year.
Not bad for a company that the trolls have been declaring dead for oh ... 15 years or so.

Can we make up a list of all the forum bozos and trolls who were positive that the the $35k Model 3 would never see the light of day ?

I don’t believe it is necessary to call out those that were wrong.
Now, those that refuse to acknowledge their error and either spin this into doom and gloom, or ignore their error and move on to something else, those people should be called out

 

[dgpcolorado]

"Estimated delivery: 2 - 4 weeks"

Of interest to me is that the price of the long range RWD version (325 mile EPA range), with premium upgrade package now standard on LR models, has been dropped to $43k. I think that's a pretty good deal.

 

[EVDRIVER]

$35K Tesla now available. Guess that hoax is over.

Yes, but what will be the delivery date, e.g. maybe early 2020, right? If a < Q3 delivery is quoted, then this basically confirms
that the demand for a > $45K M3 is very marginal at best, and the 300K+ backlog is imaginary and a joke.

Your delivery date- "never." Why would the demand for $45K plus cars be infinite and perhaps you should look at the full picture. You can always buy a high demand fully subsidized LEAF if you can get on the wait list before the tax credits expire in 2050. I paid mine off with Tesla stock sales so at this point they can vanish and I'm still ahead. Happy Trolling,,,,,,

 

[sparky]

Two things:

1) He misrepresented in his conference call. Musk signed a shareholder letter indicating 360-400k total units for 2019. Signed. His call where he talks about 350-500 model 3 alone is inconsistent with the shareholder letter. Substantially inconsistent.

It's an easy mistake to make and I forgive you; deliveries and production are different things. From the letter "In total, we are expecting to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019". From the tweet: "Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019.

2) Even ignoring the inconsistency there, if you said your estimate is 350-500 and later say it's 500, this is a material change in guidance. One is a range, the other is not.

I'd say "around 500k" is still a range.

So in truth he was inaccurate on his conference call, and then was inaccurate in a tweet.

Inconsistently framed values (run-rates, production counts, deliveries, total cars vs Model 3 only) Yes, I agree more precision is required to determine if it's material. The imprecision probably helps Tesla's case here. And that is backed up by the lack of movement with the stock price which in and of itself bolsters the immateriality of the tweet.

The SEC has him cold. Watch it happen.

Bonus things:
....

The rest of this is in the range of conjecture to nonsense, IMO.

 

[sparky]

This SEC bashing by the fanbois is all fun and games, but if TSLA goes south they'll be the first ones to run and cry to Mommy.

Oh no. I'm being called a fanbois. Such an extinguishing remark. Does Mom and Dad know their 13 year old logged on to the forum as one of them?

 

[palmermd]

It's an easy mistake to make and I forgive you; deliveries and production are different things. From the letter "In total, we are expecting to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019". From the tweet: "Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019.

The other thing that keeps getting lost in all these arguments is that one set of numbers is for Model 3 delivery's and production and the other set of numbers in the tweet was about total vehicle delivery and production from Tesla as a whole. Don't forget that S and X will make up another 100k, which makes his numbers in the tweet for total vehicles right in line with all the previous statements. Yes, he was, once again, sloppy in his tweet, but the numbers are not unreasonable.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Two things:

1) He misrepresented in his conference call. Musk signed a shareholder letter indicating 360-400k total units for 2019. Signed. His call where he talks about 350-500 model 3 alone is inconsistent with the shareholder letter. Substantially inconsistent.

It's an easy mistake to make and I forgive you; deliveries and production are different things. From the letter "In total, we are expecting to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019". From the tweet: "Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019.

I really appreciate your forgiveness in this matter.

I did not realize Tesla was going to have 100k cars manufactured, but not delivered, just sitting in a parking lot. Thanks for clearing it up, sparky.

The rest of this is in the range of conjecture to nonsense, IMO.

Those points I made are demonstrable, provable, objective facts. They are, like, the complete literal opposite of what conjecture is. To understand what conjecture is look at the rest of what you wrote in your post, not mine.

Both you and I know the SEC are going to win in this. Not honestly sure why you're arguing something that you're so obviously wrong about.

 

[Leaf15]

It would be a lot of cancellations of Leafs, Bolts, even Kona (Top trim + $5K gouge). But I do not like sedans. Maybe would look at Model Y in the future. But if you need EV right now and do not mind a sedan, $35K Model 3 should be on your list.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

It would be a lot of cancellations of Leafs, Bolts, even Kona (Top trim + $5K gouge). But I do not like sedans. Maybe would look at Model Y in the future. But if you need EV right now and do not mind a sedan, $35K Model 3 should be on your list.

On paper, I agree. It thrashes the Leaf, frankly. There are some potential concerns like quality, ongoing service (i.e. no local dealer), etc.

But that all said, $37k if you get the "standard plus", gives you a 5.3 0-60 240 mile car and for a few grand more you've got an automated system better than nissan's pilot assist.

Investors are also reacting badly to this, with the stock taking a hit today. They want high margin which this car isn't going to give them. Also concerned about yet more layoffs, yet another restructure/change in strategy.

It's also obvious that reservation cancellations have gone to the moon, as I had long suspected. There's no other way to explain how they are projecting 2-4 week deliveries on these. Moreover, Tesla now refuses to share reservation numbers.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Taking the long view, thin margins on a few cars is a perfectly reasonable tradeoff for increasing market share IMO. It will be interesting to see how many of those SR reservations convert to sales. My guess is the number of folks who take a black $35k car is pretty small, most will get add ons.

I can only assume they've thought through the ramifications of closing the stores.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

It looks like that bond payment may have really @*#&ed them. According to this they were planning to expand retail locations as recently as a month ago.

https://twitter.com/enthusiast_intr/status/1101525852389588992

We also know, as of weeks ago, that they were not going to make Q1 profit. Musk has now confirmed that unequivocally. Having just lost > 1/3rd of their remaining cash with this repayment they are facing a big cash squeeze. I guess that's why their stock is getting hammered last day.

I've been wrong about TSLA in the past, so I make no claims to confidence (also why I do not take positions on the stock), but shuttering locations and slashing price, plus in light of the claimed 2-4 week delivery (meaning they have already fulfilled all demand for > $35k cars), looks to many like a last ditch hail mary pass.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

^ There are a lot of other things in that list besides retail location expansion.

 

[WetEV]

Taking the long view, thin margins on a few cars is a perfectly reasonable tradeoff for increasing market share IMO.

Assuming Tesla survives to the long term, of course.

Tesla has already changed the world, which is a good thing. While the Model 3 success or failure is still in the balance, the Model S is and was profitable and desirable. Porsche, BMW, Jaguar and more have taken notice. Kind of hard for them not to...

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

There are still lots of knobs they can turn. My prediction is it's the model Y people will be lining up for as demand for sedans is pretty soft. Frankly I'm amazed they have done as well as they have. When they announce the model y they should also announce a leasing program on the model 3 and have current Tesla owners and lessees go to the head of the line for model y deliveries.

 

[lorenfb]

An interesting perspective with some valid points:

As a Sales & Marketing Manager, I see nothing but bad news in the Tesla announcements. I believe they have painted themselves in a corner, from which it will be almost impossible to escape from:

By cutting the prices on their flagship products as well as the model 3, Tesla just devalued the brand. Cutting prices is not a show of strength it's a sign of weakness. If you bought a Tesla in the past 6 months you are not happy as you just got screwed out of several thousand dollars.

https://rennlist.com/forums/taycan-and-mission-e/1041180-tesla-existential-threat-45.html

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

An interesting perspective with some valid points:

As a Sales & Marketing Manager, I see nothing but bad news in the Tesla announcements. I believe they have painted themselves in a corner, from which it will be almost impossible to escape from:

By cutting the prices on their flagship products as well as the model 3, Tesla just devalued the brand. Cutting prices is not a show of strength it's a sign of weakness. If you bought a Tesla in the past 6 months you are not happy as you just got screwed out of several thousand dollars.

https://rennlist.com/forums/taycan-and-mission-e/1041180-tesla-existential-threat-45.html

On Thursday I was contrite--Tesla had finally come up with $35k and I had considered it implausible.

But as I read other opinions it does look like they are working from a position of desperation. They are in a big cash crunch and demand destruction. They need money badly, and now. The big cut in costs to EAP/FSD screams this as well.