EatsShootsandLeafs said:
Musk is making much about the 200k reservations of the truck.
Of course these numbers don't mean much given the reservation is $100. The conversion rate on that will be paltry for sure.
I'm basically a perma bear on tesla now. I used not to be, so take my comments with a grain of salt, but I did not realize until today that tesla North American sales are actually down--a lot.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/29/reuters-america-update-2-tesla-filing-shows-u-s-sales-tumbled-39-percent-in-third-quarter.html
You can find positive growth outside of the US, but this is its bread and butter and this should not instill confidence. The Y is going to hit US markets in a--finally!!--competitive environment. So their sales are tumbling in NA despite no good competition. 12-18 months from now you have the Mustang Mach-E which is a direct competitor with the Y from a 3000-dealership company. Even the Rav4 Prime will be on some people's comparison list with the Y.
You've been a hater of Tesla since I've been on this board, back when I first bought my Leaf in 2016. 3 years later your opinion of them hasn't changed, but their output has gone from 24,500 in Q3 2016 to 97,000 in Q3 2019, which 3.95x higher. The Model 3 US sales estimate for 2019 according to InsideEVs is 111,650, the second closest plugin, the Prius Prime only has 15,705 for the same period and the Nissan Leaf has 9,111.
After owning a Leaf, currently owning a Chevy Volt, and a Model 3, I would never consider consider any non-Tesla vehicle until the other automakers catch up in regards to specifications and ADAS, which won't happen any time in the next 3 years, likely not for 5 years. If Subaru or Honda had good BEVs, I might consider them, but nobody offers a BEV with comparable specs at a comparable price point that I can buy today.
In regards to your reservation conversion rate, I expect the conversion rate to be greater than half of the reservations, but something to keep in mind is that in 2019 very few of Model 3 sales were from reservation holders, and also in late 2018 that was the case too. There is plenty of organic growth demand for the vehicle, most people I give test rides to say they would "love" to buy a Tesla. Even the people I know who know of the Ford Mach-E, none of them are interested in purchasing it, and between the Model Y and the Mach-E, they would prefer the Tesla, although they admit the Mach-E is a good looking competitive vehicle.
When it comes to charging networks, none of the other automakers can compete, as few of the other vehicles offer charging over 150kW, most are 50kW-100kW, and Electrify America which is the largest charging network outside of Tesla's, charges way too much for their charging. It's 3x of what charging at a Supercharger would cost, eliminating any cost advantage for driving an electric vehicle over an ICE vehicle.