When will Tier 3 reservers finally see their LEAF?

[solarchargeddriver]

It's wrong that Nissan took reservations from even a single person from the Forgotten 36 in April 2010, as now it's looking like we might not see our "reserved" LEAF until possibly 2013. Check out this from a recent CNET article http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-13746_7-20072629-48/nissan-may-delay-u.s-ev-output/ about LEAF orders:

Company officials have said they expect to deliver 10,000 to 12,000 Leafs in the United States in 2011. Nissan has so far taken about 7,000 orders for the vehicle and expects to have those orders filled by the end of summer. It is taking orders in California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Tennessee, Hawaii, and Texas. This summer Nissan will begin accepting orders in Virginia, Maryland, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Alabama. Nissan's goal is to be selling in all 50 states by the time production begins in Smyrna.

Smyrna might not even open in 2012! Meaning no LEAFs for the Forgotten 36 until 3 years after thousands of us handed $99 over to Nissan?

When do others think folks who reserved a LEAF in April 2010 from the Forgotten 36 will actually see their LEAFs?
-- Late 2011
-- Early 2012
-- Late 2012
-- 2013

 

[nunezj12]

Well we've already heard from Nissan CS about "wave 5" being able to order in spring/summer of 2012. I believe they mean opening it up to everyone (those without a reservation) for the entire country in 2013. It's all speculation at this point though.

 

[solarchargeddriver]

Here's a blog post I just wrote about the Forgotten 36, in case anyone's interested -->
http://solarchargeddriving.com/editors-blog/on-evs-a-phevs/744-will-leaf-leapers-in-forgotten-36-wait-until-2013.html

Nissan could shut me up with just one e-mail giving me a no-later-than this date for when I could expect my April 2010 reservation for a LEAF from Colorado to become an order: e.g., "Christof, you won't see your LEAF any later than April 2012, etc."

How difficult could this be? -- Mitsubishi's done this with its reservations for the iMiEV.

It's just plain, basic customer service to communicate with your prospective customers regularly, especially those that have put down $99 ...

 

[jimcmorr]

Here's a blog post I just wrote about the Forgotten 36, in case anyone's interested -->
http://solarchargeddriving.com/editors-blog/on-evs-a-phevs/744-will-leaf-leapers-in-forgotten-36-wait-until-2013.html

Nissan could shut me up with just one e-mail giving me a no-later-than this date for when I could expect my April 2010 reservation for a LEAF from Colorado to become an order: e.g., "Christof, you won't see your LEAF any later than April 2012, etc."

How difficult could this be? -- Mitsubishi's done this with its reservations for the iMiEV.

It's just plain, basic customer service to communicate with your prospective customers regularly, especially those that have put down $99 ...

If you are so upset about your $99, cancel your reservation. If you still want a LEAF go to Arizona, buy an orphan and trailer it back home.

 

[tps]

If you still want a LEAF go to Arizona, buy an orphan and trailer it back home.

Unfortunately, this is not a general solution to the problem; there are far more resevation holders than orphan LEAFs. I think the big reason the rollout is slow is to build out the service infrastructure. Apparently this requires some big changes at the dealers so they can be ready to service EVs. I'm in the forgotten 36, and not particularly happy about it, but it is what it is...

 

[solarchargeddriver]

thanks tps -- the consumer actually has very little control in situations like this. He/she's pretty much at the mercy of the producer. Taking a hike with my $99 won't change what Nissan is doing or how it's mistreating its potential customers, and, as you point out, the odds of landing an orphan are low.

You're right that "it is what it is" in the sense that consumers are largely powerless to do anything to change Nissan's approach.

Of course, Nissan could choose to change "what it is":

All I'm asking for from Nissan is an upfront approach that tells me, and the thousands of others in the Forgotten 36, what the deal is for us. How hard can that be?

 

[tps]

All I'm asking for from Nissan is an upfront approach that tells me, and the thousands of others in the Forgotten 36, what the deal is for us. How hard can that be?

I did email Nissan and asked exactly what my $99 reservation entitled me to, and their response was that I would be among the first allowed to order when they begin taking orders in my state (PA). I'm guessing this will be largely a symbolic gesture on Nissan's part; production will likely be ramped up to the point where, in reality, I'll likely be able to order a few days, maybe a month at the most, earlier that if I had no reservation at all. In Tier 1 states, a early reservation meant ordering in the first wave between Sept 2010 and early 2011; not having a reservation from the original wave meant waiting until they re-opened reservations May 2011, but May reservations have been largely symbolic, as they've been allowed to order almost immediately. I'm guessing that might be the case almost from the time they start taking orders in the forgotten 36...

 

[solarchargeddriver]

I just want Nissan to give me a time window -- We'll start taking orders in your state in Spring 2012, Summer 2012, Fall 2012, or, if they want to give themselves some wiggle room -- "sometime between Spring and Summer 2012", etc.

Or, "We honestly do not know when we can take orders from your state."

Just some direct and honest communication, rather than the evasiveness that we've all been served up for too long...

 

[tps]

"We honestly do not know when we can take orders from your state."

The time window they have given has slipped a few times, now, so I really think it's best to assume their plan may change again, so the reality of the situation is that they can't give us a firm date. It would be nice if they could honestly say this, but there are probably political and marketing reasons why they don't.

Right now I'm hoping to order and take delivery in 2012, but that is just what I'm hoping for. I first presented the Smyrna rumor in mid-March, based on something I heard off-the-record at the Drive-Electric event. This was before the tsunami, which caused the Smyra schedule to slip. It's interesting that the Smyrna rumor has resurfaced. But, so far as I can tell, the whole production/rollout/delevery situation is so dynamic, affected by everything from natural disasters to the monetary exchange rate, that it's hard to predict whether the Smyrna rumor will indeed come true.

I think I have at least a small understanding of Nissan's position. They want the LEAF to succeed, which means they need happy customers as well as profitable production while still keeping the dealer network on-board somehow. They are working with many groups to get the charging infrastructure in place. And there are probably many aspects to the Nissan's rollout challenge, small and large, that I'm not aware of to which I'm sure Nissan NA would enlighten me if they could.

They probably are as disappionted as we are when timeframes slip. I continue to support their rollout of the LEAF, not based on Nissan holding to some arbitrary schedule regardless of changing conditions, but to their comany's capital commitment to the LEAF and EVs, which no other major automaker has done so far. Even though I don't know exactly when I'll get my LEAF, I know that Nissan will eventually sell me one, so I can be patient with that knowledge.

In addition, I have the advantage that I can rent the Hertz LEAF in NYC to get a small taste of the driving experience. So far I've done this successfully once, driving it for 2.5 hours, and unsuccessfully once; I made the trip up to NYC to find that the previous renter forgot to plug it in when he was finished, so it was not charged. But I can tell you that, during my 2.5 hour drive, I was so positively impressed that I'll continue to wait for my chance to order one and continue to do and pay whatever it takes to rent the Hertz LEAF meanwhile.

One thing I've noticed here at MNL: members sometimes whine big time about delays until they take delivery, at which time they change from being whiners to complementing Nissan for a car whose design is far more polished than one would expect from the first-generation of such an inovative vehicle. Thanks to the brief oppotunity I've had to experience the LEAF from Hertz, I understand where they are coming from...

 

[jimcmorr]

According to an email response to my question about ordering, which I posted in another thread...
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3942&start=16

For tier 2 (aka "Wave 2") states, GA, VA, NC, SC, FL, MD, I think that is all of them, ordering will open up in August or September.

NH ("Wave 5") will begine ordering in Spring of 2012.

 

[charlie1300]

I think the answer is very simple - Nissan doesn't know because they can't be sure when the plant in Japan will be back to full production due to the ongoing effects of the earthquake/Tsumani. The full capacity of that plant has already been stated as 4,000 Leafs per month. So two or three months at full capacity takes care of Tier 2 and ongoing sales in tier 1(Sept -Dec 2011), then it's on to the forgotten 36. But Nissan isn't there yet, (maybe 1,500 in the month of May). If they can get back to full capacity by September (not at all a given), Then the forgotten 36 (which may end up being broken up into smaller waves) will see Leafs delivered in spring of 2012. If the plant gets stuck running at 50% capacity or less, that's the waiting for Smyrna scenario.
My guess is that Nissan will focus on getting Japanese production back on track at the expense of delaying Smyrna. That's what makes economic sense, getting existing plant and workforce back to full production as a priority over the plant under construction. That would be good news for initial reservation holders in the forgotten 36, not so good for new customers.

I don't put much stock in the arguments that delays will result from exchange rate issues or lack of charging infrastructure. if Nissan can produce the cars, they will ship them. In upstate NY, I don't expect to be able to charge my Leaf anywhere but in my garage for a long time, and that's OK with me.
And as far as Nissan communication goes, on this point I think they've made it pretty clear that timing of deliveries to the forgotten 36 are currently up in the air.

 

[tps]

I don't put much stock in the arguments that delays will result from exchange rate issues or lack of charging infrastructure. if Nissan can produce the cars, they will ship them. In upstate NY, I don't expect to be able to charge my Leaf anywhere but in my garage for a long time, and that's OK with me.

I think a larger concern is servicing infrastructure. I don't think any dealers in my area are ready to service a LEAF, yet. My thought is that if you buy an orphan LEAF in a non-rollout area, you may be on-your-own for the next year or so. Given the LEAFs probable reliability, that may not be so bad in a few isolated cases, but I'm sure Nissan wants to make sure they have the service infrastructure in-place before they start officially selling the LEAF in an area.

 

[solarchargeddriver]

All I want Nissan to say about the Forgotten 36 is one, honest: "We do not know!"

A couple people seem to have implied that Nissan has done this. I have not seen this anywhere.

If anyone can actually point me to a direct, honest quote by a Nissan spokesperson/CEO, etc. in which the company has stated, unequivocally, that it does not know when people who reserved a LEAF in April 2010 from the Forgotten 36 will actually see their LEAF, please point me, and the rest of us, to it.

The best marketing/PR approach is honesty, not evasiveness and ambiguity. We get enough of that from our politicians.

I don't feel like taking Nissan to task for its assinine approach here is "whining". I call it calling out a company that's made a mistake in the way it's approached PR/Marketing for the LEAF.

Companies/people/politicians, etc. who make mistakes ought to be called out on them so that, hopefully, they learn from them and do a better job the next time around.

 

[tps]

All I want Nissan to say about the Forgotten 36 is one, honest: "We do not know!"

I don't think you'll find they've said this explicitly anywhere. You have to be willing to read between the lines. While they have given projections as to their plans from the very beginning, they have changed numerous times as the rollout has progressed. I don't think its too hard to draw the conclusion that Nissan's plans are subject to many changing conditions and that, although they always have a long-term plan, they do not know what short-term conditions might cause them to modify their plan.

When they took the first wave of reservations, I was under the impression that I would be one of the first 25,000 to receive a 2011 LEAF. The first hint that something had changed was when they abruptly cut off reservations at 20,000. Now it is obvious that, even though the reservation website still shows "My 2011 Nissan LEAF" with trim level and price, I won't be getting a 2011 LEAF. I don't think they intentionally lied to me; I think they were under the impression, when the web site was designed, that all 25,000 reservation holders would get 2011 LEAFs. But I think the timetable for the rollout has been modified somewhat since the early days.

 

[xRB]

According to an email response to my question about ordering, which I posted in another thread...
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3942&start=16

For tier 2 (aka "Wave 2") states, GA, VA, NC, SC, FL, MD, I think that is all of them, ordering will open up in August or September.

NH ("Wave 5") will begine ordering in Spring of 2012.

Of course Tier 2 once was scheduled to order in December 2010, and it was into December 2010 when that time point was pushed back into "summer", which is what is now August or September. Maybe that's what will happen, or maybe there will be another shift. I am thinking another shift is likely, as I'm guessing that Tier 2 is going to be supplied from the Tennessee plant, so if the TN plant is delayed, so will deliveries to Tier 2. While that doesn't mean that orders will be delayed, it is obviously a pain to have a lot of customers having ordered but with no immediate prospect of delivery, so maybe there will be another delay in ordering as well.

When people look back in a decade or so, whether delivery to Tier 2 or Tier 3 is 2012, 2013, 2014 is not going to seem especially important. For those of us affected, it may be that the best thing to do is to exhale, not be too committed to anything in particular, and just see what happens whenever it does. Eventually the train will come down the track, whether from Nissan or Ford or someone else. We are no longer part of the leading edge anyway, so might as well relax and enjoy watching for a while. As in baseball, it can be fun to watch, and one learns a lot while doing so.

 

[jimcmorr]

FWIW... I am not convinced that any US automobile manufacturer is committed to producing an electric vehicle. Also I don't think Nissan is going to stop building LEAFs in Japan to depend solely on Smyrna to produce LEAFs for us here in the states in two or three years. Maybe their production is going to be lower but we will still be getting LEAFs in this country. The TN plant could be delayed but I don't know why it would be. Even if it is, Nissan will not hold off bringing LEAFs here and selling them. I think the tier 2 states will get to order as we have been told in August.

Just my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

 

[tps]

Not that I'm planning a move, but if I did move to California, what would happen? Would I get to RAQ right away?

 

[jimcmorr]

Not that I'm planning a move, but if I did move to California, what would happen? Would I get to RAQ right away?

Good question. As I understand it you have to call Nissan Customer service to change the address you have on your registration. It would seem to me that should trigger an email allowing you to request a quote if your new address was within a state that was currently allowed to order. I am open to correction if someone knows the answer. I am hoping to be able to move to GA but I have no offers on the house yet. I will be happy to relate my experience as soon as I am able to make that change.

 

[defiancecp]

Not that I'm planning a move, but if I did move to California, what would happen? Would I get to RAQ right away?

While you will be allowed to change your address (if you're insistent), you will not be allowed to RAQ or order. Your account order timing is HARD LOCKED to the state relating to the credit card address on your initial reservation.

 

[jimcmorr]

Not that I'm planning a move, but if I did move to California, what would happen? Would I get to RAQ right away?

While you will be allowed to change your address (if you're insistent), you will not be allowed to RAQ or order. Your account order timing is HARD LOCKED to the state relating to the credit card address on your initial reservation.

And if your credit card billing address were to change? Then.... ??

Do you know this from experieince?

We are talking about a person currently on the registered list who paid their $99, actually physically relocating to a state that is currently allowed to order. It doesn't seem like, the fact that you registered in a tier 3 state, should prevent you from being allowed to RAQ or order in a state that is currently accepting RAQs and orders, when you had relocated to that state and can prove it.