Will you hold off for rumored 2014 LEAF?

[GPowers]

Remember: There will always be something better in the future. That's why you should just buy what's right for you, when you need it.

+1

Wanted the Tesla model S, been waiting for years. The Leaf is on the road NOW!! I can always buy a Tesla when the marketing hype dies down. But the important thing is I'am driving an ALL electric car NOW.

 

[mitch672]

Remember: There will always be something better in the future. That's why you should just buy what's right for you, when you need it.

+1

Wanted the Tesla model S, been waiting for years. The Leaf is on the road NOW!! I can always buy a Tesla when the marketing hype dies down. But the important thing is I'am driving an ALL electric car NOW.

I agree. I was going to just "settle" for a Plug in Prius, as I have been driving Priu for the last 10 years, however, 15 miles of EV range (on city streets, not highway, it will be less on highway), with a 62MPH MAX in pure EV mode just does not cut it. I decided it's time to switch brands and dump my trustee Prius, and just go %100 all electric. My 2012 arrives "week of January 9th, 2012". Had a nice extended test drive for 3 hours last Saturday, very nice car, and I only managed to get it down 3 or 4 bars on 35 miles of driving (mixed highway/city). it will work fine for my 34 mile daily roundtrip commute, its a great commuter car.

 

[tps]

Why have you not just bought an orphan and had it shipped.

It's a hassle! Out of the thousands of LEAFs sold, I'm guessing only a handful have been sold as orphans and shipped all the way across the country. When I hear someone who's actually bought a LEAF long distance tell me it's easy, maybe I'll be more inclined to believe them. But I did check into it at one point...

I'll be driving my current car to the Nissan dealer, selling it back to them, and driving away in a new LEAF which I am initially planning to lease, no hassle, no cash required. My dashboard just updated to Month of January 2012. So I'll have it soon enough.

 

[dgpcolorado]

In answer to the OP's question: no. ... By last summer, however, I finally tired of waiting and decided to take the plunge now ...

I consider trying to make one work in a rural mountain area, with zero charge station infrastructure, an interesting challenge. ...

Meanwhile, the dealer tells me that my LEAF is in Portland and expected to arrive at the dealership in the next few days, so I hope to be making the trip to Oregon to pick it up soon. The wait is almost over...

I think you'll be very pleased overall.
I'm glad you waited for the 2012 with battery heater, though. The 2011 without battery heater doesn't work with battery temperature below -30C (-22F) as reported in recent Nissan Engineering visit.
Fortunately for me it doesn't get that cold in Tennessee very often. Something like 2 or 3 days in >30 years.
It gets colder than -22F quite a bit more often on the western slope of Colorado, right?

No, -22ºF is the lowest I've seen at my house and is unusual (but there are several places in Colorado that routinely hit those temperatures at night). And my LEAF will be in a garage that almost never drops below freezing in winter because the furnace happens to be located there. The main reason I wanted a 2012 (or a 2011 with cwp, if I had known about them) is that it has heated seats. Using those, along with pre-heating, should mean that I can avoid using the cabin heater when I am trying to push the range. And if that isn't comfortable, I will try Herm's idea of a heated motorcycle vest or jacket. For short local trips of 18 or 38 miles I won't need to worry about heater use, I would guess, so I'll just set it at a toasty 60º (about the same as my house thermostat) and let it go.

 

[Volusiano]

I doubt that car companies will lower the price significantly until the $7500 tax credit is gone. I think the average owner can easily save about $200/month on energy cost to run the Leaf. That translates to $2400/year, or $7200 in 3 years (or more if gas price keeps going up every year). Even if the Leaf is $7200 cheaper in 3 years so you save $7200 on the 2014 Leaf compared to current owners who will save up $7200 in the gas saving, current Leaf owners will have had 3 years ahead of you to enjoy the pluses of an electric car already, while you miss out on those 3 years. Not to mention 3 years worth of CO2 emission saving they will be contributing to the environment, while you'll be putting those 3 years worth out into the air.

Also, so what if the 2014 Leaf has a little more range? You may be able to make a few more longer trips than current Leaf owners. But how many more of those longer trips will you really be logging in? Maybe 5% more? But other than that, the remaining 95% of your trips will not benefit from the longer range battery anyway, so it's really a wash, not enough to justify waiting 3 more years.

Also, if you need a car now, buying an ICE car now only to flip and sell it in 3 years in exchange for an EV may not be very economical anyway because you have to consider the value loss of your ICE car when you get rid of it in 3 years.

The only scenario that makes sense to wait is if you don't need a car now and can use your ICE car for 3 more years while you're waiting for cheaper/better things. I'm still keeping my other 2 ICE cars beside my Leaf for my family of 4 drivers. But I've promised myself to never ever buy another ICE car again.

 

[GPowers]

There is an unthinkable scenario... The electric car resurgence fails and auto makers stop making EVs. It happened in the lat 1990's. So if you wait until 2014 there many not be any leafs to buy. And the 2011 and 2012 Leafs we are driving now will get a nice premium, if we sell them.

Hope this dos not happen. But, in the past it did...

 

[OrientExpress]

Get one today and lease it, then when the 2015s come out, you will be ready.

I have 31 months left on the lease on my 2011, and I am so glad I got one when I did. It is 90% of the car it could be, and after 7500 miles has been completely trouble free. That is a new record for a new car for me. This is the first car I have ever bought new that had ZERO problems during the first 8 months.

It costs us about $35 to go 1000 miles (vs $50 to go 300 miles in our ICE car), so we are taking the money we are saving on gas and using that for a good vacation this next year.

Get one the first chance your have, you will not regret it.

 

[Leafboy]

Why have you not just bought an orphan and had it shipped.

It's a hassle! Out of the thousands of LEAFs sold, I'm guessing only a handful have been sold as orphans and shipped all the way across the country. When I hear someone who's actually bought a LEAF long distance tell me it's easy, maybe I'll be more inclined to believe them. But I did check into it at one point...

I'll be driving my current car to the Nissan dealer, selling it back to them, and driving away in a new LEAF which I am initially planning to lease, no hassle, no cash required. My dashboard just updated to Month of January 2012. So I'll have it soon enough.

I'm in Atlanta, GA and bought mine from AZ. Very easy. Had the car in less than a week of contacting the dealer.

 

[tps]

Why have you not just bought an orphan and had it shipped.

It's a hassle! Out of the thousands of LEAFs sold, I'm guessing only a handful have been sold as orphans and shipped all the way across the country. When I hear someone who's actually bought a LEAF long distance tell me it's easy, maybe I'll be more inclined to believe them. But I did check into it at one point...

I'll be driving my current car to the Nissan dealer, selling it back to them, and driving away in a new LEAF which I am initially planning to lease, no hassle, no cash required. My dashboard just updated to Month of January 2012. So I'll have it soon enough.

I'm in Atlanta, GA and bought mine from AZ. Very easy. Had the car in less than a week of contacting the dealer.

Did you lease? What about a trade-in? Did he give you a good deal? How was it by the time you included shipping and whatever else?

 

[Herm]

There is an unthinkable scenario... The electric car resurgence fails and auto makers stop making EVs. It happened in the lat 1990's. So if you wait until 2014 there many not be any leafs to buy. And the 2011 and 2012 Leafs we are driving now will get a nice premium, if we sell them.
..

It could happen, they keep finding oil or building GTL plants to make oil.. or there is a spate of BEV fires that sours the market etc.

 

[TRONZ]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

Yep, that's what we are seeing, hundreds in saving a month! We are about to top 10K and tickled with the car. Every year a person waits is thousands of dollars lost to gas, over the cost of electricity. we didn't wait and wouldn't now if we had it to do all over again, we may trade up later or not. The faster charger probably won't be an issue either if the electric highway get's fleshed out, the DCQC's should make a faster AC to DC charger moot.

I doubt that car companies will lower the price significantly until the $7500 tax credit is gone. I think the average owner can easily save about $200/month on energy cost to run the Leaf. That translates to $2400/year, or $7200 in 3 years (or more if gas price keeps going up every year). Even if the Leaf is $7200 cheaper in 3 years so you save $7200 on the 2014 Leaf compared to current owners who will save up $7200 in the gas saving, current Leaf owners will have had 3 years ahead of you to enjoy the pluses of an electric car already, while you miss out on those 3 years. Not to mention 3 years worth of CO2 emission saving they will be contributing to the environment, while you'll be putting those 3 years worth out into the air.

Also, so what if the 2014 Leaf has a little more range? You may be able to make a few more longer trips than current Leaf owners. But how many more of those longer trips will you really be logging in? Maybe 5% more? But other than that, the remaining 95% of your trips will not benefit from the longer range battery anyway, so it's really a wash, not enough to justify waiting 3 more years.

Also, if you need a car now, buying an ICE car now only to flip and sell it in 3 years in exchange for an EV may not be very economical anyway because you have to consider the value loss of your ICE car when you get rid of it in 3 years.

The only scenario that makes sense to wait is if you don't need a car now and can use your ICE car for 3 more years while you're waiting for cheaper/better things. I'm still keeping my other 2 ICE cars beside my Leaf for my family of 4 drivers. But I've promised myself to never ever buy another ICE car again.

 

[TomT]

I'm going to wait for the 2020 hindsight model! :lol:

 

[Jay]

Rumors spreading that the MY 2014 LEAF will have a bit better battery and a lower price. If you were planning a 2012 or 2013 LEAF purchase, will this cause you to wait? If you were planning a 2012 or 2013 competitor purchase will this rumor cause you to wait?

/can't resist

Rumors are rumors, but the 2014 will not have a better battery/range, etc...just the known logistics of Nissan's development argues strongly against that. However, I would agree that it will definitely have a better price the closer we get to Dec 31st, 2014 ahead of the credit expiry....short of a further US dollar collapse. Maybe a couple thousand in 2014 and probably $4,000-ish when the credit is up (just a wag).

As per a major upgrade on the MY 2014:

First up working against this, is that you have the tooling/PP of the Sunderland plant in Q2 of next year for the LEAF, which serves as a guinea pig for Nissan on some some slight remodelling (but not essential components - ie) battery) of the product. Production starts in Q1 of 2013, and there is no way there are going to run the 'old and busted' out of a brand new facility for only a few months, just to then rip it all down and start again.

Second is that you have the new Infiniti showcasing the better (NMC pack, and 130ish mile range). This is said to start production in Q4 of 2013 as a 2014 model. Honestly, I would be surprised if the LEAF even got a wiff of this tech before MY 2016.

Aside: I think a lot of us here that already have a LEAF (or two) are all penciling in a vehicle swap for the MY 2014 Infiniti.

 

[Volusiano]

However, I would agree that it will definitely have a better price the closer we get to Dec 31st, 2014 ahead of the credit expiry....

I didn't know that the $7500 tax credit has an expiration date of Dec 31st 2014. I thought that it only expires when 200 thousands claims will have been made against it.

 

[Weatherman]

When I hear someone who's actually bought a LEAF long distance tell me it's easy, maybe I'll be more inclined to believe them. But I did check into it at one point...

It was easy.

Bought from Fontana Nissan and had it shipped all the way from California to Florida. Last time I checked, they are still offering $2,000 off to forum members on all orphans through the end of December. Even including shipping costs, that was still $900 off MSRP for me, and given local dealers in Florida charge about a $600 "dealer service fee", it was more like $1,500 less than I could have bought locally. The car was dirty when it arrived, but once cleaned up, it was flawless.

The only restriction is that it's a cash deal. No leases.

I'll be selling my Prius to CarMax this weekend for a couple thousand dollars more than the local dealer was going to offer me as a trade-in.

Overall, a win-win on both sides of the transaction.

 

[Jay]

However, I would agree that it will definitely have a better price the closer we get to Dec 31st, 2014 ahead of the credit expiry....

I didn't know that the $7500 tax credit has an expiration date of Dec 31st 2014. I thought that it only expires when 200 thousands claims will have been made against it.

Nope, that would leave the US government open to a possible liability in excess of 20 billion dollars. The cap is the expiry and how fast automakers can produce.

 

[tps]

The only restriction is that it's a cash deal. No leases.

OK, I am planning to lease. Is that a problem for long distance transactions? Not that it matters at this point. My dashboard is saying: Estimated delivery January 2012. I can wait a few more weeks, especially now that I have a fairly good idea of how much longer it will be...

If I was still waiting for spring to order, I'd probably be calling Maryland dealers for an orphan right now.

 

[Weatherman]

OK, I am planning to lease. Is that a problem for long distance transactions?

Fontana Nissan told me cash, only.

 

[Herm]

First up working against this, is that you have the tooling/PP of the Sunderland plant in Q2 of next year for the LEAF, which serves as a guinea pig for Nissan on some some slight remodelling (but not essential components - ie) battery) of the product. Production starts in Q1 of 2013, and there is no way there are going to run the 'old and busted' out of a brand new facility for only a few months, just to then rip it all down and start again.

I read somewhere that battery production in Europe will be delayed until they have the NMC cells ready, in 2015.. no idea whats going on with the Smyrna plant. Time to send in your ninja Llamas to find out.