September Leaf sales near 7K, comeback? Or dead cat bounce

So,
What are the board’s thoughts? Start of a come back or just a small positive bump?

My personal thoughts are that the Leaf is capitalizing on challenges availability in many regions of other ev’s combined with some brand/model loyalty.

That said, we still love our Leaf, and have not found a Tesla enjoyable enough to replace the Plus ( purchased at the US price of 30K) ...though still doing test drives for fun. Acceleration and big screens count for almost 0 beyond a basic economy ICE for us.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/30/tesla-model-3-breaks-records-in-hot-market-europe-ev-sales-report/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/insideevs.com/news/378780/nissan-leaf-thailand-highest-mountain/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/insideevs.com/news/379582/global-ev-sales-september-2019/amp/

From your first link (my bolding)

Nissan Leaf — With the 62 kWh version now being delivered in volume, the Japanese model hit 3,208 units last month, its best result since March, marking the return of the Leaf to the podium, and … that’s it for the good news. Because, despite the larger battery’s help, registrations were still down 22% year over year (YoY). Will the Nissan BEV be able to leave this downward spiral? I have some doubts, as the 62kWh version’s price premium (+/- €7,000) is too steep to make it relevant in the long term. In the long run, either Nissan cuts prices significantly, or the Leaf starts to become irrelevant, especially when a certain VW ID.3 lands. Regarding September performances, the Japanese world record holder’s main markets were the UK (812 units), Norway (585), Germany (308), and France (299).

Click to expand...

The VW ID3 is about to obsolete the LEAF in Europe if the price is similar. Not only is it a local brand, it has real 100 kW charging and uses the CCS network.

So, you think it’s a dead cat bounce then?

What a terrible expression. I think that the CT piece was perhaps written by someone who doesn't especially like the Leaf. I'd like to see a more neutral comment. More importantly, the Renault Zoe, which has the "guts" of the Leaf, IIRC, is splitting the market share. Combine Zoe and Leaf sales and a different picture emerges.

I was thinking more that it is dinosaur flatus.

Listen to Uncle Bjorn at 25:30 after his 1000 Km challenge drive
[youtube]https://youtu.be/Ps8hwnxzk4c?t=1533[/youtube]

What I find it humorous, is that when looking at plugshare, half of the Chademo charge sessions are from Tesla drivers.

It is impressive how well Outlander continues to do.

True enough. The Leaf is limited in appeal by its lack of TMS, and in some regions by the QC type.

DougWantsALeaf said:

What I find it humorous, is that when looking at plugshare, half of the Chademo charge sessions are from Tesla drivers.

Click to expand...

Try again. You mean that half of the comments are from Tesla drivers. I'm surprised it is not even higher since Tesla cars are overwhelmingly the EV on road trips. If you are looking at urban CHAdeMO then Tesla participation will be lower but in any case comments are hardly a reasonable proxy for overall use by EV manufacturer.

Yes, half the comments. We don’t know if that is true proxy to the overall sessions or not. I assume it to be directional. It does “feel” like the percentage is going up, but that makes sense as you say, due to the overall distribution of cars which can use the adapter.

As convenience often trumps costs, if a Chademo is more in direct line to desired travel, it makes sense that the Tesla community continues expand use of them.

In any case, glad to see Chademo still growing. Hopefully there will be more guidance on ChaoJi early next year.

In terms of Leaf sales, 7K plus maybe another 1k in eNV200s is still a reasonable global volume. I do think Nissan gets many of its sales due do default availability as it is in many places the only choice of any consequence. The dead cat reference is just whether we think the slight global increase from prior months is due to the car/brand itself or just due to being one of only a small set of choices for a growing ev population.

Still no complaints with the Plus so far, will see how it does this winter.

The closer the CHAdeMO station is to Canada, the more likely it is to be visited by a Tesla. Moreover, the CHAdeMO adapter only fairly recently came out for the Model 3 so there is some interest in the community to hear whether the adapter is playing nice with DC stations.

As for convenience -- remember that the Tesla adapter is limited to 125 Amps and costs ~ $500. I'll be *really* surprised if even 1% of Tesla owners in the USA own this adapter.

SageBrush said:

The closer the CHAdeMO station is to Canada, the more likely it is to be visited by a Tesla.

Click to expand...

I have no reason to doubt you, but is the theory behind this (if indeed there is any) that because CAHdeMO charrgers are more common in Canada, more Canadian drivers have the adapters, and a noticeable fraction of the CHAdeMO charrger use in the USA is due to Canadians driving over the border?

coulomb said:

SageBrush said:

The closer the CHAdeMO station is to Canada, the more likely it is to be visited by a Tesla.

Click to expand...

I have no reason to doubt you, but is the theory behind this (if indeed there is any) that because CAHdeMO charrgers are more common in Canada, more Canadian drivers have the adapters, and a noticeable fraction of the CHAdeMO charrger use in the USA is due to Canadians driving over the border?

Click to expand...

.
That covers most of it. The others that come to mind are that a USA Tesla owner who lives close to the border would be more likely to visit Canada and the Supercharger network is not as developed in Canada as it is in the USA.

You can review threads at TMC if you are interested. The calls for a Model 3 adapter were from Canada.

SageBrush said:

coulomb said:

SageBrush said:

The closer the CHAdeMO station is to Canada, the more likely it is to be visited by a Tesla.

Click to expand...

I have no reason to doubt you, but is the theory behind this (if indeed there is any) that because CAHdeMO charrgers are more common in Canada, more Canadian drivers have the adapters, and a noticeable fraction of the CHAdeMO charrger use in the USA is due to Canadians driving over the border?

Click to expand...

.
That covers most of it. The others that come to mind are that a USA Tesla owner who lives close to the border would be more likely to visit Canada and the Supercharger network is not as developed in Canada as it is in the USA.

You can review threads at TMC if you are interested. The calls for a Model 3 adapter were from Canada.

Click to expand...

Bingo. Chademo build out in BC for example is 10 times bigger....and growing fast. By this time next year you can pretty much go anywhere on Chademo/CCS. Not so much on Supercharger. I suspect Chademo adapters are quite popular among Canadian Tesla owners.

No Nissan approved Leaf dealerships outside of the major cities hurts their EV sales into more small towns but all EV makers are doing the same thing.

Having just got our first Leaf (2016 SL) last month they should have a good future it seems to me. Their new for late 2021 new from ground up EV with more like Model 3 specs could be a hit.

https://www.greencarreports.com/ne...layed-to-late-2021-but-previewed-to-dealers

The 150 and 230 mile range Leafs should have appeal if they can keep prices low enough to compete with low end EV's that may be coming from China 5 years down the road.

Nissan has new small gas cars starting for about $13K so they should have a low end EV for the same market perhaps but the fact remains there are NO margins in that price range.

It is hard to know what the future holds for Nissan but I expect they will do better than Ford and Chrysler in the EV market due to their head start by 10 years.

The Leaf really is an awesome high tech car in my view. I think our Leaf is only the second one in Murray KY a college town but there are a ton of Nissan cars and trucks. Even see a few Jute's that seem to be a twin to the Leaf. Locally the Jute came out in 2011 as well but the Leafs are not sold in most Nissan dealerships in the USA. If that can change it could help but the fact remains Nissan may be selling all that they can produce with the batteries being the tail that wags the dog.

I think you mean the Nissan Juke, a French-styled mini SUV that has seen only mild popularity in the US. The Leaf does share a few suspension parts with it, IIRC, but not a lot. A friend has had one for a few years and isn't a fan.

GaleHawkins said:

No Nissan approved Leaf dealerships outside of the major cities hurts their EV sales into more small towns but all EV makers are doing the same thing.

Click to expand...

There are a lot more Leaf-certified Nissan dealerships than Tesla stores, but that doesn't seem to hurt Tesla

GaleHawkins said:

Nissan has new small gas cars starting for about $13K so they should have a low end EV for the same market perhaps but the fact remains there are NO margins in that price range.

Click to expand...

In Canada the Micra starts at $10,500. It is a stripped down car with manual crank windows, full manual HVAC controls, no touchscreen, no cameras and no air conditioning, but is the price of a 5-7 year old Leaf with a 10 bar battery. I would expect an e-Micra with a 50 kW motor and a 20 kWh battery (which should be good for close to 150 km range in a smaller, lighter car than the Leaf) to sell very well if priced under $20k. That should include heated seats, but no other gadgets are necessary. Air conditioning / heat pump should be a <$2000 option.

LeftieBiker said:

I think you mean the Nissan Juke, a French-styled mini SUV that has seen only mild popularity in the US. The Leaf does share a few suspension parts with it, IIRC, but not a lot. A friend has had one for a few years and isn't a fan.

Click to expand...

Juke had bizarre styling and was discontinued for the US. I believe the Kicks (https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/crossovers-suvs/kicks.html) replaces it.

cwerdna said:

LeftieBiker said:

I think you mean the Nissan Juke, a French-styled mini SUV that has seen only mild popularity in the US. The Leaf does share a few suspension parts with it, IIRC, but not a lot. A friend has had one for a few years and isn't a fan.

Click to expand...

Juke had bizarre styling and was discontinued for the US. I believe the Kicks (https://www.nissanusa.com/vehicles/crossovers-suvs/kicks.html) replaces it.

Click to expand...

I know. I was just pointing him to what I believe is the right model. I should have noted that it's been replaced, though. IIRC, the Kicks has no AWD option...?