Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

[smkettner]

Not more than half that IMO. Good luck to them all.

 

[hill]

"GM isn't profitable on the Volt (and didn't expect to be in the 1st gen) and Toyota didn't make a profit on the 1st Gen Prius either, so what are you basing the above claims of ''more than 20,000 EVs/yr is likely to be profitable'? .............snip............

The 1st flying cars weren't profitable either. The 1st jet packs weren't profitable either. IOW, just because it isn't profitable in the 1st generation, this somehow means it will be later on. It's equally likely with the physics of hydrogen that it never will be anything more than a waste.
In fact the opposite may be more likely. Take you high priced fleet of multi-hundred billion dollar aircraft carriers - and your other forms of military arsenal that's double the size of all other country's military combined. Eventually that expense will bankrupt your country. Oh, wait !! you mean it doesn't eventually become profitable?!? No. In fact, that same money spent on other things may have insured better/quicker success with your other endeavors. EV battery tech, for instance may have been perfected by now but for wasting good $$ on hydrogen cars .... just like money spent on gigantic military budgets that could have been spent on hydro electric projects ... solar/wind projects ... social projects ... building hospitals .... schools ... infrastructure .... high speed rail .... all of which pay dividends down the road. There I go thinking again.
:lol: .
.

 

[GRA]

"GM isn't profitable on the Volt (and didn't expect to be in the 1st gen) and Toyota didn't make a profit on the 1st Gen Prius either, so what are you basing the above claims of ''more than 20,000 EVs/yr is likely to be profitable'? .............snip............

The 1st flying cars weren't profitable either. The 1st jet packs weren't profitable either. IOW, just because it isn't profitable in the 1st generation, this somehow means it will be later on. It's equally likely with the physics of hydrogen that it never will be anything more than a waste.

Entirely possible, in which case California will be out a maximum of $200 million dollars over 10 years. Seeing as how our economy, if we were an independent country, would rank around 9th in the world, and the legislature just passed and the governor signed a bill putting a $7.5 billion bond measure on the ballot to increase our water storage, I'm perfectly comfortable with risking $20 million a year to make sure we have a Plan B in case BEV proponents prove once again, as they have consistently over the past century and more, that they have overstated the rate of battery advances and cost reductions. Of course, I apply exactly the same skepticism to FCEV proponents - the sole difference between them and the battery enthusiasts is that they've been making such claims for a shorter period of time.

In fact the opposite may be more likely. Take you high priced fleet of multi-hundred billion dollar aircraft carriers - and your other forms of military arsenal that's double the size of all other country's military combined. Eventually that expense will bankrupt your country. Oh, wait !! you mean it doesn't eventually become profitable?!? No. In fact, that same money spent on other things may have insured better/quicker success with your other endeavors. EV battery tech, for instance may have been perfected by now but for wasting good $$ on hydrogen cars .... just like money spent on gigantic military budgets that could have been spent on hydro electric projects ... solar/wind projects ... social projects ... building hospitals .... schools ... infrastructure .... high speed rail .... all of which pay dividends down the road. There I go thinking again.
:lol: .
.

Yes, yes, if only one of us were appointed dictator we could spend money in accordance with only our own hobby horses and ignore everyone else's. Personally, I think there's a much higher probability of FCEVs becoming mass market than of universal peace breaking out anytime soon.

 

[GRA]

... and there will be far more than 'a dozen or so' cars sold.

So, let's see some numbers from the biggest automaker in the world in the world's most progressive state (California). This is as good as it will get... I'll go first:

2015: 500
2016: 1000
2017: 2500


Your turn.

Why bother? The companies, CAFCP, ITS and others have all made forecasts, and that and $5 will get you a cup of coffee. Just ask Nissan and GM how well their forecasts for LEAF and Volt sales matched up with reality.

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

"Toyota approved to self-inspect and manufacture hydrogen tanks for fuel cell vehicles"

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/08/20140829-tmc.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Stoaty]

"Toyota Begs NHTSA For Safety Exemption For Fuel Cell Sedan"

http://insideevs.com/toyota-begs-nhtsa-safety-exemption-fuel-cell-sedan/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Apparently neither Hyundai nor Honda is asking for an exemption.

 

[AndyH]

"Toyota Begs NHTSA For Safety Exemption For Fuel Cell Sedan"

http://insideevs.com/toyota-begs-nhtsa-safety-exemption-fuel-cell-sedan/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Apparently neither Hyundai nor Honda is asking for an exemption.

No bias here. The original Bloomberg piece used the word 'ask' instead of Inside EVs choice of 'begs'.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ator-for-exemption-to-sell-fuel-cell-car.html

Toyota Asks U.S. Regulator for Exemption to Sell Fuel-Cell Car

This is no different than the exemptions granted to vehicle modifiers to disconnect otherwise required safety equipment.
http://www.nhtsa.gov/cars/rules/adaptive/Inoper/mkinop.fr.html
Or certain window installations
http://www.glassbytes.com/2014/08/a...ion-of-fmvss-compliance-on-certain-backlites/
Or Aston Martin's side air bags
http://www.autoworldnews.com/articl...ks-for-nhtsa-exemption-to-save-us-dealers.htm

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

$200k for a car that doesn't meet safety standards? Where do I sign?!?!?!?

 

[GRA]

$200k for a car that doesn't meet safety standards? Where do I sign?!?!?!?

Probably the same place you signed to buy a Tesla Roadster, which had a similar exemption for its airbags. Or the VW XL1, which will need an exemption because it uses side cameras instead of mirrors. Safety regulations shouldn't be fixed in stone, they need to allow for different ways of achieving the desired goal instead of mandating one and only one way, especially in the case of new technology, low-production vehicles. Otherwise, how are they ever supposed to advance?

 

[GRA]

Via GCR:

"Volkswagen Japan Chief: Fuel-Cell Cars May Struggle Outside Of Japan"

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1094334_volkswagen-japan-chief-fuel-cell-cars-may-struggle-outside-of-japan" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think it's fair to say that VW has a dog in this fight, so take it with as few or many grains of salt as you feel appropriate (the same naturally applies to remarks by Toyota, Honda and Hyundai execs re FCEVs).

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

And exactly what lofty goal is Aston Martin trying to achieve?

 

[AndyH]

And exactly what lofty goal is Aston Martin trying to achieve?

There's a link there - click away!

I'll give you a hint, though - it's got nothing to do with getting the planet off fossil fuel...

 

[AndyH]

Here's a nugget for the folks that want to compare the cost of fueling equipment. This newly published report from the DoE lists current prices for CNG fueling - from a single unit in a residential garage to fast-fill public infrastructure. Enjoy.

http://www.afdc.energy.gov/uploads/publication/cng_infrastructure_costs.pdf

There's a webinar scheduled for 16 Sep at 3pm EDT if anyone's interested.
http://www.aacog.com/civicalerts.aspx?AID=559

 

[smkettner]

^^^^ Makes EVs look all the better for personal use.

 

[JeremyW]

This made me chuckle a bit:

Available power supply—If a site does not have adequate electrical capacity for CNG fueling equipment, an electrical upgrade may be necessary

:lol:

Although to be fair, the "large station fast fueling" prices look similar to those for a comparable gas station.

 

[AndyH]

^^^^ Makes EVs look all the better for personal use.

It's useful to remember that personal use isn't the majority of transportation...
Probably also useful to remember that these vehicles have ranges considerably longer than 75 miles while carrying half a ton or more...even in the winter...

 

[smkettner]

^^^^ Makes EVs look all the better for personal use.

It's useful to remember that personal use isn't the majority of transportation...
Probably also useful to remember that these vehicles have ranges considerably longer than 75 miles while carrying half a ton or more...even in the winter...

Still fairly big unless I read this wrong.

http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/r...ansportation_statistics/html/table_04_05.html

 

[AndyH]

^^^^ Makes EVs look all the better for personal use.

It's useful to remember that personal use isn't the majority of transportation...
Probably also useful to remember that these vehicles have ranges considerably longer than 75 miles while carrying half a ton or more...even in the winter...

Still fairly big unless I read this wrong.

http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/r...ansportation_statistics/html/table_04_05.html

Sure - it's large - even when we look at vehicle numbers and not fuel consumption.

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2012/mv1.cfm

In 2012 there were a bit more than 250 million total registered vehicles in the US, but those are both personal and commercial. I have not been able to find good numbers for just personally-owned/operated cars. The best estimates I've seen suggest there are about 62 million personally-owned cars on the road, so about 1/4 of the road vehicle fleet.

BEVs work well where their capabilities meet or exceed the needs of the owner, but the currently available BEVs cannot meet the performance needs of all personal cars in all climates.

 

[GRA]

Just for the hell of it, from ABG:

"Say hello to Hy-Cycle, Australia's first hydrogen fuel cell bicycle"

http://green.autoblog.com/2014/09/14/hy-cycle-australias-first-hydrogen-fuel-cell-bicycle/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

"U Glasgow chemists develop new electrolyzer architecture for H2 production 30X faster than current electrolyzers at equivalent platinum loading"

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/09/20140915-glasgow.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As always with laboratory results, assume that it will be a minimum of 5 and probably closer to 10 years before this could be commercialized, assuming it can be.