I think I'm a "sea-level-rise" skeptic!

[RegGuheert]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZ36ded2Wc0[/youtube]

This is a great video which details what impacts sea level rise calculations. Interestingly, this video includes a plot showing the rate of rise on 159 of NOAA's tidal gauges around the world. If you want to go directly to that plot in the video, click here.

If you would prefer a PDF article regarding the information, including the plot, in the video, here it is.

The bottom line: Tidal gauges at individual locations are what we care about. The vast majority of tide gauges register an average sea level rise between 0 and 2 mm. There are areas of subsidence and uplift with values above and below this level. The mean according to recent papers is ~1.4 mm/year.

Dr. Morner also points out in both the video and the PDF that when researchers interpreted the satellite altimetry in 2000, the trend was 1.0 mm/year. In 2003, it was 2.3 mm/year. By 2007, it had grown to 3.2 mm/year. No, the sea level rise was not accelerating. The slope of all the data, including the old data, was changing. IOW, most of the so-called sea-level rise many are reporting is simply adjustments to satellite altimetry data. The tide gauges tell a different story. Here is a plot of the trends for all tide gauges that NOAA has maintained into the 21st century:

Here is the table from which this data was taken.

Note that ~85% of them have a trend below 3.2mm/year. (And, no, most are not currently accelerating. You can view the data in the links weatherman and AndyH provided. Only the data from Woods Hole, MA shows sea-level rise accelerating. Others, like Hilo, HI, show the rate of sea-level rise decreasing (in fact, the level of sea level is currently decreasing there, in spite of the 3.2mm/year trend).

 

[AndyH]

There was a claim made that beaches along the Washington coast had eroded away due to sea level rise. And yet, the tide data clearly shows that mean sea level along the Washington coast has stayed flat or fallen over the last fifty to seventy-five years.

Therefore, the explanation for the beach erosion must be one of numerous other possibilities.

Yet when one looks at the chart you linked, there are many periods in recent history where the sea level in specific areas is quite high - and those periods are absolutely enough to cause accelerated erosion.

The entire discussion just illustrates the danger of taking a global mean phenomenon and applying it to a specific event at a specific place.

Sorry, no. This discussion illustrates how one can try to trivialize or negate 'facts on the ground' by implying change is linear and by hiding behind averages.

Nobody but you claimed that the 'average sea level caused (or didn't cause) accelerated erosion'.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

the rising "coastline" here is well documented. problem is part of that coastline is underwater and has been for several millennium which ADDS to the problem.

 

[Stoaty]

Joe Romm thinks the 2020's will be the peak of property values in Florida due to sea level rise:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/23/2967411/coastal-property-values-crash-climate-science-deniers/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[RegGuheert]

Joe Romm thinks the 2020's will be the peak of property values in Florida due to sea level rise:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/23/2967411/coastal-property-values-crash-climate-science-deniers/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We will soon be able to add this to the Big List of Failed Climate Predictions.

The rate of sea-level rise in most of Florida is around 10 inches per CENTURY. What that means is that by 2034, the seal level in Florida will have risen about 2 inches from where it is today. That might affect a couple of properties, but I doubt even that. Most of Florida is many METERS above sea level..

Most likely Joe Romm is wanting to get property values down in Florida so that he can purchase a fancy home for himself for retirement.

 

[Stoaty]

Once people realize that sea level rise is going to continue at an accelerating rate, the tipping point will come long before the properties are actually flooded. When the insurance rates go up or you have trouble getting a 30 year mortgage, prices could turn around pretty quickly.

PS In case you are interested in why Joe Romm got interested in climate change:

"He was named in Rolling stone magazine’s list of 100 people who are changing America and in September 2009, Time magazine honoured him as one of its Heros of the Environment. He is one of the most influencial bloggers campaigning against climate change. His selection of blog postings was published as a book called Straight Up in 2010.
A doctorate in Physics from the Massachusets Institute of Technology, Romm was alerted about the perils of climate change when his brother lost his house in Mississippi to Hurricane Katrina. The incident led to Romm’s in-depth research to determine whether it was safe to reconstruct in that areas given the prediction of increase of extreme events like hurricane and storms in the age of climate change. "

http://know.climateofconcern.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=article&id=202" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

It's got me wondering if remodeling the kitchen is a bad decision. So far that argument hasn't gotten any traction though.

 

[donald]

Once people realize that sea level rise is going to continue at an accelerating rate,

You say the rate of rise is accelerating.

'Fraid I can't see that from the data. Could you elaborate on this insight?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Once people realize that sea level rise is going to continue at an accelerating rate,

You say the rate of rise is accelerating.

'Fraid I can't see that from the data. Could you elaborate on this insight?

do you also dispute the disappearing ice? where is all that water going to go? just curious as to your views on that. its nice to pigeonhole a single set of data points as a basis for an argument as complex as this but gotta think it aint gonna work.

ya see, we are all connected so weather, rising seas, melting ice, eroding shorelines, rising ocean shelves, and changing tides all play a part. so what is your position on these subjects?

 

[Stoaty]

'Fraid I can't see that from the data. Could you elaborate on this insight?

Just going with the scientists on this one:

You can read the link provided, and additionally this one:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/20/3439488/biggest-loser-greenland-antarctic-ice-loss/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

Once people realize that sea level rise is going to continue at an accelerating rate,

You say the rate of rise is accelerating.

'Fraid I can't see that from the data. Could you elaborate on this insight?

Highly-coordinated/synthesized reporting:

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-5-1.html

Yes, there is strong evidence that global sea level gradually rose in the 20th century and is currently rising at an increased rate, after a period of little change between AD 0 and AD 1900. Sea level is projected to rise at an even greater rate in this century. The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion of the oceans (water expands as it warms) and the loss of land-based ice due to increased melting.

Global sea level rose by about 120 m during the several millennia that followed the end of the last ice age (approximately 21,000 years ago), and stabilised between 3,000 and 2,000 years ago. Sea level indicators suggest that global sea level did not change significantly from then until the late 19th century. The instrumental record of modern sea level change shows evidence for onset of sea level rise during the 19th century. Estimates for the 20th century show that global average sea level rose at a rate of about 1.7 mm yr–1.

Satellite observations available since the early 1990s provide more accurate sea level data with nearly global coverage. This decade-long satellite altimetry data set shows that since 1993, sea level has been rising at a rate of around 3 mm yr–1, significantly higher than the average during the previous half century. Coastal tide gauge measurements confirm this observation, and indicate that similar rates have occurred in some earlier decades.

In agreement with climate models, satellite data and hydrographic observations show that sea level is not rising uniformly around the world. In some regions, rates are up to several times the global mean rise, while in other regions sea level is falling. Substantial spatial variation in rates of sea level change is also inferred from hydrographic observations. Spatial variability of the rates of sea level rise is mostly due to non-uniform changes in temperature and salinity and related to changes in the ocean circulation.

More localized quick view

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

 

[AndyH]

It's got me wondering if remodeling the kitchen is a bad decision. So far that argument hasn't gotten any traction though.

Depends on how long you plan to live there and how much you like jellyfish.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/c...-for-food--against-humans-20131123-2y2m6.html

 

[RegGuheert]

PS In case you are interested in why Joe Romm got interested in climate change:

"...A doctorate in Physics from the Massachusets Institute of Technology, Romm was alerted about the perils of climate change when his brother lost his house in Mississippi to Hurricane Katrina...."

It's hardly comparable to Florida. Sea level around Florida is rising at a rate less than one-forth that of New Orleans. New Orleans was built on a delta marsh and was mostly below sea level many decades before Katrina hit. By contrast, Florida is NOT built on a delta marsh and nearly all of Florida is meters above sea level. Three years before Katrina hit a lead article in the New Orleans Times-Picayune predicted almost precisely what would happen with that storm. Did that information cause property values to collapse in New Orleans prior to Katrina, even though the city was already FEET BELOW sea level? No. Likewise, people in Florida are not going to abandon their properties and move away while they are still many METERS ABOVE sea level.

Joe Romm's prediction is nothing than more unjustifiable alarmism to add to the already huge and growing pile.

 

[RegGuheert]

It's got me wondering if remodeling the kitchen is a bad decision. So far that argument hasn't gotten any traction though.

If you are planning on living in the house for several hundred more years, it *might* be a problem. :lol:

 

[AndyH]

Likewise, people in Florida are not going to abandon their properties and move away while they are still many METERS ABOVE sea level.

Welcome Reg - I wondered when you'd arrive here.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/11/09/3742641/rising-sea-levels-falling-real.html

While most residents in South Florida still have no worries that global warming could dramatically lower housing prices, land-use attorney Sam Poole has already developed a plan to sell his house in a low-lying Fort Lauderdale neighborhood.

There are hints, however, that the real estate industry is preparing for change.

Len Berry, director of Florida Atlantic University’s Center for Environmental Studies, reports developers have quietly contacted the university to check out projections of how much sea level will rise in the coming decades as they look for future safe investments.

Many experts suggest problems with insurance could start a decline in waterfront values much more quickly. Congressional legislation last year required major increases in flood insurance premiums, which for decades have been subsidized. That means that ground-level homes in the Keys could see their premiums increased from $2,500 to $30,000, reports the Florida Keynoter — costs that could quickly drop real estate prices.

You're right - everything's fine. I don't recommend eating the three-eyed shrimp, though, even if they still have a shell...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Another thing not really touched on is our ability to measure sea level rise to begin with. its not that easy. totally unrelated but back in the early 60's my Dad went to Camp Century Greenland to run a nuke power plant. the camp was sitting on what was thought to be about a half mile of ice.

well, since the Army was there, naturally some government scientists wanted to tag along and were there to collect soil samples to see what kind of clues they could get about Greenland's past. The ice was a bit of a problem so the solution was to vent waste steam from the power plant (after all, how much power could a hundred people need?) to bore a hole in the ice. So, they rigged up some piping and turned on the steam and the melting ice did the rest. every day, they would simply add more pipe and the hole got deeper and deeper.

well, to make a long story short; after they got to about 6500 feet, they starting thinking that maybe that half mile estimate might be a bit off.

 

[RegGuheert]

Again, at an inch a decade, it will be CENTURIES before the problems get severe. That gives plenty of time for planning and adaptation. It's good they are doing it now. Unfortunately, the insurance companies are going to take many Floridians to the bank over this unjustified alarmism. They made a killing over hurricanes by jacking up rates based on alarmist predictions of increases of hurricane rates just as we entered the longest drought of major hurricanes in recorded East Coast history.

 

[Stoaty]

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/11/09/3742641/rising-sea-levels-falling-real.html

Thanks for that, Andy. Here is my favorite quote from the article:

A warning might scare away some buyers — but not all. Peter Harlem, an FIU researcher, points out that Miami boomed in the 1920s when developers sold swamp land to buyers who hadn’t seen it. Perhaps, Harlem suggests, that could happen again.

“You know, about a third of America ... doesn’t believe [in] climate change. That’s a sure market to sell to.”

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Again, at an inch a decade, it will be CENTURIES before the problems get severe. That gives plenty of time for planning and adaptation. It's good they are doing it now. Unfortunately, the insurance companies are going to take many Floridians to the bank over this unjustified alarmism. They made a killing over hurricanes by jacking up rates based on alarmist predictions of increases of hurricane rates just as we entered the longest drought of major hurricanes in recorded East Coast history.

ok, answer this question since I really don't know but we all know tides vary and due to what? force on the water, distance of the moon, slope of the continental shelf, etc. right? so not the easiest math problem to deal with.

so my question is does one inch of sea rise in open ocean equate to a one inch rise in tide over a shallow ocean shelf?

 

[RegGuheert]

Another thing not really touched on is our ability to measure sea level rise to begin with.

Have a look at Dr. Morner's video that I linked on the previous page. He covers this topic in quite a bit of detail. But tide gauges tell the locals what they need to know.