Leaf Gen 2 - New Nissan LEAF World Premier on Sep 5, 5:30 PM PDT

[webb14leafs]

I think we'll have to see what the actual dealer price is on the car before we really make a comparison to the Leaf and Bolt.

Personally I think the Bolt is a ridiculous car. What's the point of extending the range if the car is uncomfortable and has almost no cargo room? Hope you don't need to pack more than a couple bags of groceries for you next road trip in that Bolt.

At MSRP, it does not compare favorably to the Model S. When has the Leaf ever sold for MSRP though???

I think this was a smart move for Nissan. The extra range will help them penetrate the commuter/2nd car market. The less polarizing looks will help too.

All EVs are a compromise.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

The 62mph limit on ProPilot makes it useless for highway travel in the US. However as others have said, the Leaf works great in Japan or European countries. The Leaf will continue to be cheap due to discounting in the US alongside the tax credits, which should last through the end of 2018 for Nissan.

I'm going to say Nissan had us bamboozled with propilot.

Read this announcement from June of this year:
http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/nissan-propilot-assist-technology-reduces-the-hassle-of-stop-and-go-highway-driving-ready-for-u-s-launch?la=1

Nissan ProPILOT Assist™ technology reduces the hassle of stop-and-go highway driving, ready for U.S. launch

Not a single mention that it actually does not work at highway speeds. I suppose the title is technically accurate. Propilot is set for stop and go when you're on the highway. But if you're just on the highway and driving? Sorry, I hope you're going below the speed limit or else it won't work. Even though this graphic clearly pretends that propilot today, can work on single-lane highway driving: "assisted steering, braking, and accelerating during single-lane highway driving".

When I google propilot 62 mph I find out that there are articles even from last year about it. So it's not like this was a last minute consideration by Nissan to limit the speed to 62 mph; it's actually been that for a while. I wonder when/if they will bring it up to speeds that actually work on the majority of US interstates.

 

[SageBrush]

The 62mph limit on ProPilot makes it useless for highway travel in the US. However as others have said, the Leaf works great in Japan or European countries. The Leaf will continue to be cheap due to discounting in the US alongside the tax credits, which should last through the end of 2018 for Nissan.

I'm going to say Nissan had us bamboozled with propilot.


When I google propilot 62 mph I find out that there are articles even from last year about it. So it's not like this was a last minute consideration by Nissan to limit the speed to 62 mph; it's actually been that for a while. I wonder when/if they will bring it up to speeds that actually work on the majority of US interstates.

Nissan talked about single lane highways while you are thinking of multi-lane interstates. Off-hand I'll guess that a 55 mph speed limit is common on the former.

Not really useful for me. Perhaps DRCC works at higher speeds. If it too is limited to 62 mph then Nissan has not advanced their tech much in the LEAF.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

The 62mph limit on ProPilot makes it useless for highway travel in the US. However as others have said, the Leaf works great in Japan or European countries. The Leaf will continue to be cheap due to discounting in the US alongside the tax credits, which should last through the end of 2018 for Nissan.

I'm going to say Nissan had us bamboozled with propilot.


When I google propilot 62 mph I find out that there are articles even from last year about it. So it's not like this was a last minute consideration by Nissan to limit the speed to 62 mph; it's actually been that for a while. I wonder when/if they will bring it up to speeds that actually work on the majority of US interstates.

Nissan talked about single lane highways while you are thinking of multi-lane interstates. Off-hand I'll guess that a 55 mph speed limit is common on the former.

Not really useful for me. Perhaps DRCC works at higher speeds. If it too is limited to 62 mph then Nissan has not advanced their tech much in the LEAF.

I knew it wouldn't do lane changes and had assumed that meant driving on a single lane on a highway

This article from July @ Forbes, the guy laments how he didn't get it on the interstate: https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2017/07/21/nissan-propilot-assist-preview-its-automated-but-not-self-driving/#3f6ceec2568b Too bad, he would have realized it doesn't work on the interstate if driving normally.

And this is very strange:
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/07/20/nissan-propilot-assist-semi-autonomous-technology-test/

The steering can handle fairly aggressive interstate corners, too. The test loop was a section of I-696 in Michigan between the Nissan technology center in Farmington Hills and Woodward Avenue in Royal Oak, and almost every tight turn was navigated without additional input from the driver, and at speeds of right around 70 miles per hour. The ability for the car to slow to a stop worked very well, bringing the car to a halt smoothly and safely, and holding it at stops. It also accelerated up from a stop smoothly, and, unless traffic was moving more briskly than usual, generally kept up.

These abilities mean that ProPilot Assist should be a serious boon for people dealing with gridlocked traffic, or making long jaunts across the country on interstates. I personally would have appreciated this feature in college on my long drives between Indiana and Kansas. Thirteen hours of endlessly straight interstate can wear you out, and having this assist would've really helped with fatigue.

So what, did Nissan allow reviewers a version of propilot that consumers won't have?

Also here is a picture of a guy using propilot assist on a multi-lane highway:
https://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/2018-leaf/

Yet more:
http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2017/07/21/nissan-propilot-assist-farmington-hills/489193001/

Drivers were told to wait until they were on the interstate before engaging the system

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/hands-on-with-nissans-propilot-assist/

While ProPilot Assist does work from zero to 90 mph, it's not intended for city use.

0-90 mph?!

The press release from nissan says from about 18-62 mph. What's going on?

 

[SageBrush]

So what, did Nissan allow reviewers a version of propilot that consumers won't have?

I don't know, but a close reading of your quote says *almost* every turn managed ... on a route the car and Nissan probably know very well.

 

[edatoakrun]

="EatsShootsandLeafs"

...150 miles range, lol, that's worse than I think anybody here had estimated...

Continuing use of the ~36 kWh (?) available AESC pack, which largely determines the range, was presupposed, and at the top of my wish list:

="edatoakrun"

You don't always get what you want...in your Gen two LEAF

Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:32 am

A thread to post the features and options you'd like in the Gen two, but probably won't get.

My own wish list, with estimated probabilities:

1) Gen two base pack compatibility with Gen one battery pack.

Possibility of being announced on 9/5: 10%

Possibility of being announced eventually: 33%

I really don't care much whatever the Gen two pack available capacity is, assuming it is between 30 and 40 kWh, and the LEAF is priced accordingly.

Continuing production of the 24/30 pack architecture, while increasing available capacity incrementally, is an obvious way to contain costs.

My own view is that Nissan would be better off leaving the small range-anxious-market for TSLA and GM to fight over, and concentrate on building the best BEV, which given current battery costs and energy densities, is in this range for mass-market vehicles.

And I hope Nissan is planning to increase gen two production to much higher levels than we saw in the gen one.

Backwards compatibility with gen one 24/30 packs could be a nice bonus, even though I doubt many Gen one owners would ever end up actually paying for one...

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=24487

I also was underwhelmed, although I was not disappointed. I had low expectations, and Nissan met them all.

I see the 2018 Leaf as a great car for certain markets in the world, especially Japan. The country is small, and littered with CHAdeMO chargers. This is a good fit. Probably for some smaller European countries as well.

I do not see this as a good fit in the US for more than a comfortable commuter...

Yes, The LEAF is looks like a very comfortable commuter, even better than my 2011 has been for the last 6+ years.

You are correct to the extent that the Gen 2 LEAF is designed for only about 98% of all trips driven in the USA, while it meets more like 99% of the trip requirements in Europe and Asia.

...The thing is, I just don't think NIssan is going to make many more than they have to for CARB compliance; not at the prices these cars are going to command in the US market anyway.

So you believe low BEV prices, are a bad thing?

You definitely are the kind of customer TSLA is looking for...

If all three Gen two factories reach full production by January, it is likely to be the best selling BEV, worldwide and in the USA, in 2018.

There is little doubt in my mind that Nissan has looked to the future USA BEV market and sees a price war. that will quickly turn from cold to hot when the federal tax credits expire.

IMO, the Gen two announcement was Nissan's statement that it is prepared to sell BEVs in competition with not just heavily subsidized BEVs and PHEVs, but that it intends this BEV to be the first to compete directly with ICEVs, based on price.

 

[SageBrush]

So you believe low BEV prices, are a bad thing?

I "believe" Nissan is a for profit company and the low prices the US market will be willing to pay for this commuter car are not sustainable outside of the CARB credit market. This all points to the LEAF 1.33 being a compliance car.

As for competing as the lowest price EV, may I recommend some light reading of a car you may have never heard of called the "miEV."

Five years ago enthusiasts with money bought Tesla and those with less money bought the LEAF. The mainstream shunned both. Now EV enthusiasts of all stripes buy Tesla, and we see the beginnings of the entry level luxury market consider Tesla as best value for that market slice. The rest of the mainstream continue to shun EVs.

Where does that leave the LEAF at $25 - 30k ? No where

 

[evnow]

The 62mph limit on ProPilot makes it useless for highway travel in the US. However as others have said, the Leaf works great in Japan or European countries. The Leaf will continue to be cheap due to discounting in the US alongside the tax credits, which should last through the end of 2018 for Nissan.

Do you live in the same US I live in ? Because 62 is plenty good in the freeways around here. Yes, you won't be the fastest car in the freeway - but not the slowest either. During rush traffic, when you might use the feature most, you would be fortunate to hit 50.

Even though this graphic clearly pretends that propilot today, can work on single-lane highway driving: "assisted steering, braking, and accelerating during single-lane highway driving".

IIRC, "single-lane highway driving" = no lane change. Doesn't mean the freeway/highway needs to have a single lane.

In 2 years they will get to "multi-lane" i.e. automatic lane changes.

 

[edatoakrun]

So you believe low BEV prices, are a bad thing?

I "believe" Nissan is a for profit company and the low prices you and I love are not sustainable.

Nissan consistently makes a hefty profit selling millions of cars every year for ~$5k to ~$ 50k.

TSLA has always suffered huge losses, selling cars priced form ~$75 k to ~$150 k.

Which business model is sustainable?

Every aspect of the Gen two announcement screams cost containment.

In retrospect, you could see this coming with the AESC (LEAF battery supplier) sale.

Nissan now is in a position to demand lower cell prices, and make its supplier figure out how to lower their cost, for the most expensive component of the car.

Actually, GM will probably be the biggest loser from the 2018 LEAF announcement.

It gave away its future BEV development programs to LG, and now it still has to lose ~$10 k on each Bolt it sells?

 

[SageBrush]

So you believe low BEV prices, are a bad thing?

I "believe" Nissan is a for profit company and the low prices you and I love are not sustainable.

Nissan consistently makes a hefty profit selling millions of cars every year for ~$5k to ~$ 50k.

Start from the Versa and add $8,000 of battery costs. But remember that the LEAF is actually upscale compared to a Versa.
I'll be amazed if the marginal cost is much under $20k, so we are back to demanding $25k from the consumer to make it worthwhile for Nissan.

CALLING ALL SUCKERS!! $25k for a hobbled EV with the magical disappearing battery and crappiest DCFC network on the planet.

As I said, non-sustainable.

 

[evnow]

It gave away its future BEV development programs to LG, and now it still has to lose ~$10 k on each Bolt it sells?

The problem with these kinds of numbers ($10k loss !!) is that invariably they are including the entire cost of development in one year / one model of cars. That is not how things work - you amortize the cost of development over several years, possibly several models.

Yes, it is baffling LG is doing all the drivetrain work. GM is now just a coach-builder.

 

[Nubo]

150 miles range, lol, that's worse than I think anybody here had estimated...

Nah. We saw the "Japan range" back in April.

Because the 200km figure for the 2010 LEAF was utter bullshit. Realistically then you have to downrate their numbers by multiplying by 0.65. Applied to the lower of "350 to 400", it suggests the 2018 will have a range of about 140 miles.

-- April 27, 2017

Since they've now seem to have settled on 400km, a bit higher...

 

[edatoakrun]

It gave away its future BEV development programs to LG, and now it still has to lose ~$10 k on each Bolt it sells?

...you amortize the cost of development over several years, possibly several models...

Which GM cannot do, since the product developed belongs (almost entirely) to LG.

$10 k is only my guess of how much the Bolt will cost GM for each sale.

Bolt costs will go down over production life, just as Nissan's will.

But if ( as I expect) Nissan sells 2 to 10 times as many LEAFs as Bolts worldwide, and Nissan also amortizes development costs over future models (a LEAF-based crossover being the next model expected) then it will be able to continue cut prices (or increase features...like higher-kWh battery packs) rapidly, while GM's cost structure implies large losses over the entire life of the Bolt program, IMO.

 

[SageBrush]

150 miles range, lol, that's worse than I think anybody here had estimated...

Nah. We saw the "Japan range" back in April.

Because the 200km figure for the 2010 LEAF was utter bullshit. Realistically then you have to downrate their numbers by multiplying by 0.65. Applied to the lower of "350 to 400", it suggests the 2018 will have a range of about 140 miles.

-- April 27, 2017

Since they've now seem to have settled on 400km, a bit higher...

I've been looking for an old thread where people gave their best guesses what the LEAF2 EPA range would be.
IIRC 160s was typical and I was the outlier in the 140s.
Perhaps Dave the Ever-optimist guessed 180

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Do you live in the same US I live in ? Because 62 is plenty good in the freeways around here. Yes, you won't be the fastest car in the freeway - but not the slowest either. During rush traffic, when you might use the feature most, you would be fortunate to hit 50.

Apparently not. All the major highways going through my state have speed limits of 65 and traffic typically moves in the 70-75 mph range. Other states have even higher speed limits.

I'm still quite interested in why Nissan is saying the speed limit on this is 62 and yet journalists appear to have been given propilot set to higher speeds. Is that bait and switch, or are the journalists lying, or was nissan's media relations group incompetent when they specified 62 as the speed limit? Because something isn't right here.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Every aspect of the Gen two announcement screams cost containment.

This is the most pithy analysis yet.

But I suppose we see different things in that conclusion. You see a sustainable business model with a car that if not already profitable will be very soon. I see an expensive car that is a high fraction of the price of its competition with a lot of short-cuts, perhaps because that other competition is not as interested in being profitable short-term, and so is willing to subsidize cars for a lot longer.

In other words, you are looking at this from Nissan's perspective: Sell a car that can be profitable soon. I'm looking at it from the consumer: which car delivers the most bang for buck?

 

[SageBrush]

Every aspect of the Gen two announcement screams cost containment.

It screams update of the Gen1

And a nice one, I might add.

And If this was 2014 Nissan could reasonably be excused for the ongoing use of crappy battery tech if the msrp was under $25k, nicely under $20k after tax credit.

 

[edatoakrun]

Every aspect of the Gen two announcement screams cost containment.

This is the most pithy analysis yet.

... you are looking at this from Nissan's perspective: Sell a car that can be profitable soon. I'm looking at it from the consumer: which car delivers the most bang for buck?

From my perspective, I was relieved to see a BEV that, while not my dream car (that's the Jaguar I-Pace) is the antithesis of a compliance BEV.

If I can get a fully-loaded SL for near $25k (after dealer discounts and ~$10k fed/CA incentives) this Winter, that's probably going to be the most bang for buck available, not just for a BEV, but for any near-premium (?) loaded mid-sized hatchback, using any fuel, available to me.

As the incentives run out, Nissan should be able to cut prices further, to reduce the price shock inevitably coming to the post-incentive BEV marketplace.

 

[Durandal]

So you believe low BEV prices, are a bad thing?

I "believe" Nissan is a for profit company and the low prices you and I love are not sustainable.

Nissan consistently makes a hefty profit selling millions of cars every year for ~$5k to ~$ 50k.

TSLA has always suffered huge losses, selling cars priced form ~$75 k to ~$150 k.

Which business model is sustainable?

Every aspect of the Gen two announcement screams cost containment.

In retrospect, you could see this coming with the AESC (LEAF battery supplier) sale.

Nissan now is in a position to demand lower cell prices, and make its supplier figure out how to lower their cost, for the most expensive component of the car.

Actually, GM will probably be the biggest loser from the 2018 LEAF announcement.

It gave away its future BEV development programs to LG, and now it still has to lose ~$10 k on each Bolt it sells?

25% GM on the cars, but it's hard to keep the total balance sheet in the green when you're going from selling 20,000 BEVs/year to 500,000 BEVs/year in 5 years... Tesla will sell more vehicles next year than the Leaf has sold cumulatively.

The frustrating part of the Leaf isn't what it is, but what it could be but is not. You wouldn't have so many prior Leaf owners buying Teslas and Chevy Bolts if they weren't frustrated with what Nissan could have done but has chosen not to. A great example is the 3.3kW charger on the S trim of the Leaf. Really? On a 40kWh battery pack? It should have 6kW minimum, and 9kW on the SV and SL even if it defaults to 6kW unless you hit "faster charge" or something in case you need to run additional errands...

 

[evnow]

Which GM cannot do, since the product developed belongs (almost entirely) to LG.

We don't know what their arrangement is. Bolt r&d is most definitely GMs - that should be amortized over the life of Bolt.

$10 k is only my guess of how much the Bolt will cost GM for each sale.

$9k figure comes from a Bloomberg news item citing anonymous sources. These pieces are generally to paint EVs in bad light and try to put pressure on CA ZEV mandate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/gm-s-ready-to-lose-9-000-a-pop-and-chase-the-electric-car-boom

Unless you are a senior accounting guy at GM or an industry expert who does knock-down analysis, your guess is worth nothing.