lpickup said:
(a) Nissan has multiple established factories that they can build the LEAF out of (and as much as you can claim that they "just started" shipments a few months ago, let's be honest here that LEAF 2.0 is not a major departure from LEAF 1.0, unlike the Model 3 that is a brand new platform.
One thing that Nissan does (and that all large automotive manufacturers do) is to build factories with manufacturing lines that are NOT model-specific. Nissan's lines can handle as many as six different vehicles on the same line *simultaneously*, even vehicles which are based on different platforms. This approach has the drawback of constraining the vehicle assembly procedure to match the capabilities of the manufacturing lines. It has the benefit of providing a very-well-understood and -optimized manufacturing capability for each new vehicle which is designed. It also minimizes capital-equipment expenditures, since manufacturing lines are VERY expensive.
Tesla now has three vehicles which they manufacture and has chosen to build the Model S and the Model X on the same assembly line. But they chose to build the Model 3 on its own line, assumedly because it will be built in such high numbers that it will justify its own line. Also, I assume they wanted to take the opportunity to better-optimize the assembly line versus what was done with the Models S and X.
So the challenge that Tesla has created for itself is that not only are they developing and debugging a brand new vehicle platform, but they are developing and debugging a brand new assembly line at the same time. The result of this approach is clear for all to see: low production numbers and high defect rates so far.
Will Tesla be able to overcome these issues? Sure. How long will it take? The only thing we can be reasonably well-assured of is that it will take longer than Elon Musk says it will take. Probably much longer.
lpickup said:
(b) We really don't know how committed Nissan is to really pushing the envelope when it comes to generating demand and building to it. In the early days of LEAF 1, Carlos Ghosn spoke big about his plans for growing the LEAF program. What happened?
I'll answer that: Nissan did not meet Carlos Ghosn's projections, but they are currently building the most-successful electric vehicle the world has ever known, both in turns of total vehicle sales to date and in terms of global monthly sales rates.
lpickup said:
(c) It sounds like the consensus is that Nissan will be able to sell 10,000/month.
No one cares about "consensus". Nissan will sell as many LEAFs around the world as they can. I will not be surprised to see 12,000 LEAFs sold THIS month and that number could steadily grow through the next couple of years if the positive reviews continue. That's approximately 4,000 LEAFs built in each of their factories and sold in each of their main markets starting from now. I see no reason why they cannot sustain that number going forward as they build the vehicle's reputation. Success breeds success and I think Nissan's three regions will each build off the success achieved by the others AND I think US Nissan dealers will see that they FINALLY have a vehicle which will appeal much more to the masses than did its bulbous predecessor.
I do expect the 40-kWh LEAFs to have very-rapid battery degradation, but I do not expect that news to come out for at least two more years, at which point the 60-kWh LEAFs will be available which likely (and hopefully) will not have the same issue.
The point is that there is a HUGE addressable worldwide market for the new version of the LEAF and Nissan is positioned to be able to manufacture as many vehicles as are needed to meed the demand.
lpickup said:
Tesla's goal is to start producing 10,000/month starting next month, climbing to 20,000/month in "2Q" (I don't think we'll see evidence of that until around August), and eventually 40,000/month.
Let's be clear: Tesla will NOT produce and deliver 10,000 Model 3s in April 2018. The question that needs to be answered is, "When will they manage to build and sell 10,000 Model 3s in a single month?" No one knows, because they are fighting so many fires at the same time right now.
Once Tesla passes the 10,000/month threshold with the Model 3, then let's come back and discuss 20,000/month.
lpickup said:
And while it's true that a backlog is not the same thing as sales, in the US anyway I don't really see the competition as offering the package that I think potential Model 3 buyers (and more importantly reservation holders) are looking for.
Not everyone WANTS a car with a stiff suspension and rocket-like performance.
I also expect the appeal of the Supercharger network will soon lose its luster as the lines continue to grow and the costs grow as a direct result. Most vehicle owners will eventually come to realize that an EV that is almost-exclusively charged at home meets over 99% of their needs, making the charging network much less of a consideration.
lpickup said:
But sure, let's assume even 50% of reservations don't pan out. That's still over twice was Nissan hopes to sell during a year.
Sure, and it's also probably way more than Tesla is capable of building in a year. Again, that backlog does not in any way ensure the Tesla Model 3 will outsell the Nissan LEAF, now or in the future.
lpickup said:
I honestly think the only thing holding back Tesla is the ability to make the cars, and for sure, the ramp has been painfully slow to watch. But there is progress, and it's not like the company is simply going to say "well, this is hard and erodes our other businesses, so let's focus more on our other products". They have no choice but to push through on the ramp.
I will take a minor contention with that. Let me rephrase that statement: "The only thing holding back Tesla is the ability to make the Model 3 PROFITABLY." If they cannot build their highest-volume product profitably, they will NOT be able to build it long-term.