Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[RegGuheert]

The question is: why can't Nissan sell more LEAFs in the US? Priced at less than 60% of the 3 it should be doing much better,

I doubt we will see that anytime soon. I expect we will not see more than about 4000 LEAFs sold in the U.S. in any single month.

I wonder if Nissan could even build 10,000 LEAFs in a single month in the U.S.

 

[lorenfb]

The question is: why can't Nissan sell more LEAFs in the US? Priced at less than 60% of the 3 it should be doing much better.

The market for each product is totally different. Consumers who are in the market for a purely transportation vehicle consider TCO,
and presently the Leaf doesn't provide that versus other vehicles, e.g. the Prius, and that limits its market. The present M3 market
is not affected by that factor confronting the Leaf. The M3 is really in an upscale inelastic market driven by intangibles, e.g. product
status and ownership imagine. Some of the M3 sales in the long run will cannibalize MS sales to some extent. Once all the $50K+
reservations are fulfilled and few if any M3s are delivered for less than $45K, the true M3 market appeal will be revealed. At this
point in time it's highly questionable whether the M3 will ever be a "mass market" BEV. Presently, the M3 is just a smaller and
lower cost MS.

 

[mtndrew1]

It does seem to be true that the Leaf outsells the Model 3 in countries where the Tesla is not available for sale.

I don't think that Nissan is selling more LEAFs than Tesla is selling Model 3s because they are selling in more countries. I think Nissan is selling more LEAFs because they can build more LEAFs than Tesla can build Model 3s.

And, yes, Nissan built 2.9X as many LEAFs as Tesla built Model 3s using 3X as many assembly lines. But it is also true that Nissan makes three other cars on each of those lines, so those three lines built about 12X as many cars (maybe more?) than Tesla did on their one line.

Let's not pretend there is anything else at play here right now.

In the future, if Tesla can build more Model 3s than Nissan can build LEAFs, things may change. But they haven't been able to do that to date.

Yes, a mainline carmaker assembling a revised version of the same chassis they’ve been building on the same lines in the same three assembly plants for years has successfully started building the refreshed product.

These two cars compete in exactly one market right now, North America, where both products launched in a similar time frame. Within that scope Nissan is getting their ass handed to them.

Might as well compare Titan sales to HiLux sales. One is NA only (ish) and the other is global and doesn’t sell in NA. Just as bizarre of a comparison.

 

[lorenfb]

These two cars compete in exactly one market right now, North America, where both products launched in a similar time frame. Within that scope Nissan is getting their ass handed to them.

Really? That's a totally naive statement, i.e. both are in different product markets. Yes, they're both in the same geographic market. It's laughable.

 

[edatoakrun]

...I wonder if Nissan could even build 10,000 LEAFs in a single month in the U.S.

Sure, but it would probably take ~$5-a-gallon gas to sell that many consistently, without large LEAF sales incentives.

And Nissan says it make a profit from LEAF sales, unlike TSLA with the model 3.

When do you think Tesla will begin to consistently build and sell 10k model 3s per month?

...These two cars compete in exactly one market right now, North America, where both products launched in a similar time frame. Within that scope Nissan is getting their ass handed to them...

Looks like Nissan delivered about 2,500 2018 LEAFs to the US public in the first three months of sales.

TSLA is reported to have "sold " 222 model 3's, all to insiders and employees, in its first three months of "production".

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

 

[mtndrew1]

Nissan also basically ran out of Leafs to sell for nearly a third of a year because they botched the launch of a refresh of an existing product on an existing assembly line.

Don’t know that I would hang my hat on that as an example of a smooth rollout.

 

[EVDRIVER]

...I wonder if Nissan could even build 10,000 LEAFs in a single month in the U.S.

Sure, but it would probably take ~$5-a-gallon gas to sell that many consistently, without large LEAF sales incentives.

And Nissan says it make a profit from LEAF sales, unlike TSLA with the model 3.

When do you think Tesla will begin to consistently build and sell 10k model 3s per month?

...These two cars compete in exactly one market right now, North America, where both products launched in a similar time frame. Within that scope Nissan is getting their ass handed to them...

Looks like Nissan delivered about 2,500 2018 LEAFs to the US public in the first three months of sales.

TSLA is reported to have "sold " 222 model 3's, all to insiders and employees, in its first three months of "production".

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Because Nissan would tell you if they lost money on the LEAF right? I guess if you don't update your pack and try to milk the NRE costs at the expense of updates you would eventually become profitable. We know how honest they have been in the past but regardless they won't take a hit on the packs until they work those costs to the bone.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I'll be leaving MNL after about 7 years....
Like others, my new Model 3 will be at least twice as expensive ($50,000) as any other vehicle I've ever owned even though I didn't get EAP, FSD, or the 19" wheels.
Hope to see some of you over at the Model 3 forum at TeslaMotorsClub

If you’re on Facebook, you’re welcome to join us at “Tesla Model 3 Worldwide”:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1048374128632606/

 

[RegGuheert]

InsideEVs' number of 3875 Model 3s for April doesn't seem reasonable considering that we have pretty good evidence (like Elon Musk's letter) that over 2000 were manufactured EACH week in April. I wonder how they came up with that number?

 

[Zythryn]

InsideEVs' number of 3875 Model 3s for April doesn't seem reasonable considering that we have pretty good evidence (like Elon Musk's letter) that over 2000 were manufactured EACH week in April. I wonder how they came up with that number?

It would be because Elon Musk’s letter did not say over 2000 were manufactured each week in April.

 

[lpickup]

InsideEVs' number of 3875 Model 3s for April doesn't seem reasonable considering that we have pretty good evidence (like Elon Musk's letter) that over 2000 were manufactured EACH week in April. I wonder how they came up with that number?

According to their explanation notes, they took into account a brief shutdown of the factory (not sure how many days they assumed). The other thing to consider is that Elon is talking about production. InsideEVs is tracking (estimating) deliveries. Keep in mind that there is a lag between the two. I would estimate about 3 weeks lag to account for transport, prep, and delivery. Maybe 4 weeks if we're talking about more remote east coast deliveries (not near the delivery hubs). And Tesla also did absolutely everything they could to empty out to entire delivery pipeline for the end of 1Q, scheduling deliveries close to the factory for that final week of March.

Still, it's a valid point because Elon claimed that 2020 were manufactured in the last week of MARCH, and they had had 2040 Model 3's "in transit" as of March 31 (probably not a huge coincidence those numbers were the same). So you have those 2040, plus the 2000+ vehicles they supposedly were on track to build during the first week of April. that pretty much gets you up to the InsideEVs estimate right there. The only way to reconcile the InsideEVs estimate against Elon's statements are that the shutdown occurred during the 2nd week of April (entire second week maybe?) and that any cars built during the last 2 weeks of April have not been delivered yet. I think the InsideEVs numbers have a high level of credibility, so it's either this explanation, or Elon was not correct in his estimate of 2K during the first week of April.

 

[RegGuheert]

InsideEVs' number of 3875 Model 3s for April doesn't seem reasonable considering that we have pretty good evidence (like Elon Musk's letter) that over 2000 were manufactured EACH week in April. I wonder how they came up with that number?

It would be because Elon Musk’s letter did not say over 2000 were manufactured each week in April.

O.K., but it said that 6340 units were assembled ending on April 17:

We have now completed our third full week of producing over 2000 Model 3 vehicles. The first week was 2020, the second was 2070 and we just completed 2250 last week, along with 2000 Model S/X vehicles.

I expected to see AT LEAST those 6340 vehicles delivered in April plus any vehicles delivered the week before that (which should get the total build in those four weeks over 8000 vehicles). That leaves over half of the vehicles built during those four weeks unaccounted for.

But perhaps the lag is a bit longer than two weeks, as lpickup says...

 

[lpickup]

I expected to see AT LEAST those 6340 vehicles delivered in April plus any vehicles delivered the week before that (which should get the total build in those four weeks over 8000 vehicles). That leaves over half of the vehicles built during those four weeks unaccounted for.

But perhaps the lag is a bit longer than two weeks, as lpickup says...

I think the 2020 and the 2070 were the last week of March and first week of April, and yes, I would more or less expect that those 4090 cars would be delivered in April. That's at least close to the InsideEVs estimate.

The third batch of 2250 (covering the second week of April) may not necessarily have been delivered. As I said in my post, I suspect the lag is at probably 2 weeks for the Bay Area, 3 weeks for SoCal and the rest of the west coast, and 4 weeks for east coast near hubs (Alabama and NJ I believe?), and as much as 5 weeks for more remote east coast locations. This covers the time to deliver the vehicles to delivery centers and prep the vehicles and actually hand them over.

I also suspect that Tesla may be concentrating those early April vehicles towards the east coast, just having fulfilled west coast orders at the end of March to bump up their 1Q deliveries, so at a minimum we are talking about a 3 week lag, and more likely 4 weeks, so in my opinion, those 2250 vehicles very likely did NOT end up getting delivered in April. We'll have to wait for May for those vehicles to show up, but again, I'm sure there will be disappointment because the factory shutdown (which apparently was during that 3rd week of April) will manifest in the May numbers, which despite likely being larger than the April numbers, will not "add up" to what everyone expects, despite the fact that it will likely be a pretty large increase from April.

 

[RegGuheert]

It looks like the April numbers will have Tesla selling about 10000 Model 3s in the US with Nissan only selling 2500 LEAFs in the US.

FWIW, I was not the only one here predicting high sales for the Model 3 in April. I thought 10,000 was a bit high, but I really expected to see 8,000.

There certainly is a big ratio going on.

With LEAF sales ALSO not meeting our shared expectation, the ratio is still high in the U.S., but not quite 4:1. Globally, I expect the ratio to be over 3:1 in the other direction in April.

I also suspect that Tesla may be concentrating those early April vehicles towards the east coast, just having fulfilled west coast orders at the end of March to bump up their 1Q deliveries, so at a minimum we are talking about a 3 week lag, and more likely 4 weeks, so in my opinion, those 2250 vehicles very likely did NOT end up getting delivered in April.

I think that's the main point I was missing.

We'll have to wait for May for those vehicles to show up, but again, I'm sure there will be disappointment because the factory shutdown (which apparently was during that 3rd week of April) will manifest in the May numbers, which despite likely being larger than the April numbers, will not "add up" to what everyone expects, despite the fact that it will likely be a pretty large increase from April.

Assuming the shutdown was only one week (was it?), it seems that May sales of the Model 3 CANNOT come in under 6,000 units. If they do, then I think there is some serious disconnect between Elon's production numbers and the reality.

 

[edatoakrun]

... it seems that May sales of the Model 3 CANNOT come in under 6,000 units. If they do, then I think there is some serious disconnect between Elon's production numbers and the reality.

The reality is, whether May model 3 sales hit 3,000 or 9,000 units, the number will be far less than Musk projected ~ two years ago for late 2017 , and far less than the number needed to produce a profitable quarter for TSLA.

...He (Musk) then provided a production target, which is way beyond what we’d expected to hear:

“So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.”

Up to 200,000 Model 3 produced by the end of 2017! That figure seems unbelievable, but with Musk at the helm anything is possible...

https://insideevs.com/elon-musk-tesla-model-3-production-target-is-up-to-200000-in-second-half-of-2017/

Bloomberg's model is now guessing model 3 production will drop below 1,500 per week, for the foreseeable future:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

 

[lpickup]

Assuming the shutdown was only one week (was it?),

Not sure...I think it was a little bit less...April 18-22 maybe?)

it seems that May sales of the Model 3 CANNOT come in under 6,000 units. If they do, then I think there is some serious disconnect between Elon's production numbers and the reality.

I think I would agree with that. Let's do our own estimating.
We have the 2250 vehicles from the 2nd week of April. Let's aim low for 3rd week of April, say 500 vehicles. 4th week of April and first week of May (this week) should each be 2000+. Now there is another shutdown scheduled for May, but unless it's this week, even I don't believe it will significantly impact May numbers. So right there we are at at least 6750. If they don't meet that number, then I agree there is something going on. And that's a conservative estimate. I would hope that they would be getting closer to 3K/week right now, and that moves the number up to 8750.

And that something could be two things:

1) Deliveries to the Canadians that were invited at the end of March should probably occur sometime in May. That will lower the numbers. It should not impact the 6750 deliveries per se, but since InsideEVs tracks US sales only, their reported number would be lower (I don't know if there is a similar estimate of monthly global Tesla sales anywhere).

2) If Tesla decides that they could defer delivering #200K until July, they may attempt to stockpile Model 3's for quick sale in 3Q. I would prefer that they ship to Canada instead of taking such a measure.

I just updated my model with the April deliveries estimate, and I have them at 200,839 at week end 6/9, assuming no deliveries to Canada. Let's say they manage to ship 5000 to Canada between now and then. This buys them another week, being at 200,286 on June 16. That is tantalizing close to deferring that #200K vehicle until July 1. Whereas normally we would see them pull out all the stops to get as many deliveries in the quarter as they can, if they go this route, it's going to look very different. I imagine they will ship all those cars out there and stage them for delivery in the first week or two of July.

 

[lpickup]

The reality is, whether May model 3 sales hit 3,000 or 9,000 units, the number will be far less than Musk projected ~ two years ago for late 2017 , and far less than the number needed to produce a profitable quarter for TSLA.

Well, good thing that most of us aren't hung up on production estimates made 2 years ago, or even take Musk 100% at face value when he sets goals like that.

 

[EVDRIVER]

The reality is, whether May model 3 sales hit 3,000 or 9,000 units, the number will be far less than Musk projected ~ two years ago for late 2017 , and far less than the number needed to produce a profitable quarter for TSLA.

Well, good thing that most of us aren't hung up on production estimates made 2 years ago, or even take Musk 100% at face value when he sets goals like that.

+1

 

[Oils4AsphaultOnly]

The reality is, whether May model 3 sales hit 3,000 or 9,000 units, the number will be far less than Musk projected ~ two years ago for late 2017 , and far less than the number needed to produce a profitable quarter for TSLA.

Well, good thing that most of us aren't hung up on production estimates made 2 years ago, or even take Musk 100% at face value when he sets goals like that.

+2

 

[mtndrew1]

Here’s the actual quote from Tesla’s reservation email confirmation on April 1st 2016 to someone (me) who stood in line and placed an actual deposit for an actual car and actually took delivery:

“Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. North American deliveries will be first, followed by Europe, Asia and Pacific countries then countries with right-hand drive configurations. Those who own Model S or Model X cars will be offered priority production slots as a special thanks for supporting the Tesla mission.”

They delivered exactly that. It’s sitting in my parking space right now.