Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[lorenfb]

InsideEVs' number of 3875 Model 3s for April doesn't seem reasonable considering that we have pretty good evidence (like Elon Musk's letter) that over 2000 were manufactured EACH week in April. I wonder how they came up with that number?

I thought 10,000 was a bit high, but I really expected to see 8,000.

So your guess is on the very high side and basically totally discounts InsideEVs data, right? If so and you're correct, a consult opportunity
exists for you with InsideEVs. Good luck.

 

[RegGuheert]

So your guess is on the very high side and basically totally discounts InsideEVs data, right?

:?: :?:

Um, no. My guess in no way "basically totally discounts insideEVs data" since "InsideEVs data" did not exist at the time jlv and I formulated our guesses.

 

[lorenfb]

So your guess is on the very high side and basically totally discounts InsideEVs data, right?

:?: :?:

Um, no. My guess in no way "basically totally discounts insideEVs data" since "InsideEVs data" did not exist at the time jlv and I formulated our guesses.

Then your "model" needs a revision.

 

[RegGuheert]

Then your "model" needs a revision.

Ya think?

Still, my point remains: That was not the obvious result.

 

[lorenfb]

Then your "model" needs a revision.

Ya think?

Still, my point remains: That was not the obvious result.

Yes, it's not easy to attempt any realistic forecast of Tesla's production/deliveries. This afternoon (evening your time) some form of
convergence may be possible. Who knows, InsideEVs may be way off and you may be closer.

 

[RegGuheert]

This afternoon (evening your time) some form of convergence may be possible.

Why should I spend my evening on this? Is there something wrong with the projection I already made for May?

 

[lorenfb]

This afternoon (evening your time) some form of convergence may be possible.

Why should I spend my evening on this? Is there something wrong with the projection I already made for May?

I don't know. Like some on MNL, maybe your life is devoid of much else but posting. Just joking!

 

[lorenfb]

Sales of MS/MX will be flat for 2018 vs 2017, i.e. Tesla sets their guidance:

Looking forward into Q2, Tesla expects Model S and X deliveries to be similar to the ones in Q1. But Tesla said that number will increase in Q3 in order for Tesla to hit its goal of 100,000 deliveries for 2018

The reality of what the actual 4/18 weekly production was:

In its letter to investors, Tesla provided some updates to its Model 3 production, noting it hit 2,270 cars produced per week for three straight weeks in April.

That resulted in about 6800 M3s produced. InsideEVs reported deliveries of only about 3900. That's a big difference for a potential "in transit".
Could the difference be accounted for as "re-works" after final inspections?

Although much attention has been paid to the Model 3, Tesla said demand for the Model S and Model X is still quite strong. In Q1, Tesla had its highest order number ever, with demand exceeding supply. Tesla said it produced 24,728 Model S cars and X vehicles, while delivering a total of 21,815 of them.

InsideEVs was fairly close on their estimate for Q1 MS/MX U.S. deliveries, i.e. about 11K ( close to 50% of WW of 22K)

https://techcrunch.com/2018/05/02/tesla-earnings-q1-2018

Tesla shares were down nearly 5 percent in after-hours trading Wednesday. After the earnings release, the stock was volatile. Initially shares moved higher before reversing. But the decline accelerated during Tesla's earnings call when Musk's exchange with analysts grew tense after he labeled their questions "boring" and cut them off.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/02/tesla-q1-2018-earnings.html

In the photo of Elon, is he looking to Mars or following a re-entry from ISS? Elon Musk, such a pillar of self-confidence.

 

[EVDRIVER]

In the end who cares about production numbers at this level of detail except those trying to time some specific delivery based on rebates. Why the obsession? Other than if Tesla will make it long term or not, I don't care about when they produce X number of cars or what dumb blog site run by someone trying to get referral credits for new Tesla wheels or some agenda based short site may say. What does that prove about anything? Elon is a scammer? Nissan can make more cars? Tesla will die? What's the point? Not much discussion about the cars other than third party opinion dumping and the like. At least some owners have shared their opinions and any EV is based on ones preferences, needs and budget not who get's cars out faster or what someone said a year ago. If you want false promises they are everywhere in the auto world or just read the posts in the Future Battery Tech thread, I'm waiting on every one of those soon to be released chemistries just like political promises. When I see something worth buying I may pull the trigger, until then no spread sheet from Bloomberg or Inside clicks, etc is going to help me decide.

 

[jlv]

If you want false promises they are everywhere in the auto world

Yep; for instance, all the auto manufacturers that promise us they will be making bunches of BEV models in 3, 6 or even 10 years.

 

[finman100]

I believe all those "coming attractions" announcements were 3, 6, 10 years ago. where are those headlines of missed deadlines? lack of production? promises broken?

hmmmmm.

I don't understand why this Tesla company is held to such a different set of criteria. And they ARE getting long-range EVs out there! go figure.

Oh, and all those Fudsters out there, try not to make up any more FUD against Tesla. It's getting old and they are changing the world. deal with it.

 

[RegGuheert]

InsideEVs has an article which includes a link to a video recap of the Tesla analyst call by the YouTuber who got to ask some questions on that call. The reason I am posting here is that one thing came out on the call that was news to me. Apparently, Tesla has managed to reduce the quantity of the cobalt in their NCA technology used in the Model 3 to levels below what will be used in upcoming NMC811 technology from other BEV vendors. In other words, the cobalt content in Tesla's battery must be lower than 10.1% (by mass) of the cathode material found in NMC811. IMO, that is a big deal! It means that Tesla may not only have higher energy density, but they likely also have better longevity AND lower cost. Even if this change would, in general, have the effect of reducing the longevity of their cells, the work of Dr. Jeff Dahn has likely more than made up for any such change in that regard.

Here is the video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMAPRbT-sh4[/youtube]

 

[mtndrew1]

I believe all those "coming attractions" announcements were 3, 6, 10 years ago. where are those headlines of missed deadlines? lack of production? promises broken?

hmmmmm.

I don't understand why this Tesla company is held to such a different set of criteria. And they ARE getting long-range EVs out there! go figure.

Oh, and all those Fudsters out there, try not to make up any more FUD against Tesla. It's getting old and they are changing the world. deal with it.

Remember when Carlos Ghosn predicted 500k Leaf sales by 2013? What a loser huckster taking us all for fools to pump up his stock price! (Go ahead and ignore that he jump started the entry level EV market and created the best selling EV in the world).

https://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/16/nissan-will-sell-500000-electric-cars-a-year-by-2013-says-chief/

 

[jlv]

I believe all those "coming attractions" announcements were 3, 6, 10 years ago. where are those headlines of missed deadlines? lack of production? promises broken?

I was referring to *recent* announcements from car companies telling us that they've be making all BEVs in 2025 (or whenever). Volvo, VW, Infiniti, etc. The ones always promising it will be in a few model years. Maybe they will, or maybe they are still hedging their bets.

I was not talking about the companies that actually are committed to BEVs today (albeit slower than promised, but not slower than most expected).

 

[RegGuheert]

Bloomberg's tracker is indicating production of the Model 3 is going the wrong way.. It is indicating production has dropped to 1533/week and it predicts production will drop to about 900 units/week by the end of the month.

Methinks the curve-fitting algorithm in this tracker makes some "interesting" projections!

 

[lpickup]

Bloomberg's tracker is indicating production of the Model 3 is going the wrong way.. It is indicating production has dropped to 1533/week and it predicts production will drop to about 900 units/week by the end of the month.

Methinks the curve-fitting algorithm in this tracker makes some "interesting" projections!

Oh look, one day later and the picture looks completely different!

Yes, the Bloomberg model (and most others that track production on a daily basis) are going to suffer from these anomalies, and they even warn you of this in their blog post of 5/7 on the right hand side:

It's possible that the Trend feature might see large volatility swings in the next few weeks, as the model seeks Tesla's new equilibrium.

The problem with these kinds of trackers is that the authors don't seem to understand the difference between precision and accuracy. The come up with a model that is so sensitive to daily fluctuations that they forget the important thing is not whether whe're at 1705 per week or 1695 per week, but rather the big picture trend.

I prefer a far simpler model that may not be precise, but is a more accurate representation of what is happening. Unless you are the manager at Tesla responsible for scheduling deliveries, you will never get a precise number anyway. Better to just assume a much simpler model and periodically calibrate it to the data you see coming out. and not react to every last little anomaly you encounter.

Oh, and Ed:

Bloomberg's model is now guessing Model 3 production will drop below 1,500 per week, for the foreseeable future:

Looks like your ability to "foresee" was only about 5 days...

 

[RegGuheert]

InsideEVs has an article which includes a link to a video recap of the Tesla analyst call by the YouTuber who got to ask some questions on that call. The reason I am posting here is that one thing came out on the call that was news to me. Apparently, Tesla has managed to reduce the quantity of the cobalt in their NCA technology used in the Model 3 to levels below what will be used in upcoming NMC811 technology from other BEV vendors. In other words, the cobalt content in Tesla's battery must be lower than 10.1% (by mass) of the cathode material found in NMC811. IMO, that is a big deal! It means that Tesla may not only have higher energy density, but they likely also have better longevity AND lower cost. Even if this change would, in general, have the effect of reducing the longevity of their cells, the work of Dr. Jeff Dahn has likely more than made up for any such change in that regard.

InsideEVs has picked up this story and includes an interesting graphic on Tesla's progress in reducing Cobalt from their vehicle batteries:

 

[dgpcolorado]

Tesla has registered VINs up to 42,942 with NHTSA. A VIN of 20,513 was seen in late April at the Colorado store and some Canadians have reported being assigned VINs in the 22,000 and 25,000 ranges (meaning the cars are in transit).

 

[lpickup]

Tesla has registered VINs up to 42,942 with NHTSA. A VIN of 20,513 was seen in late April at the Colorado store and some Canadians have reported being assigned VINs in the 22,000 and 25,000 ranges (meaning the cars are in transit).

Let's see if this link works...VIN 26,570 spotted getting ready for delivery in Ontario:

 

[dgpcolorado]

AWD and Performance orders expected to open late next week, according to EM. Production to start in July. Also white interior. No air suspension until later, which has a lot of people who want AWD or Performance with coil suspension very happy. It will take some time to work through the backlog of deferred orders for AWD.