Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

AWD and Performance orders expected to open late next week, according to EM. Production to start in July. Also white interior. No air suspension until later, which has a lot of people who want AWD or Performance with coil suspension very happy. It will take some time to work through the backlog of deferred orders for AWD.

This is also why I've given up on owning a model 3. I put a reservation in last year, but I am not one to be upsold, and Tesla has no apparent plans to actually build the $35k, certainly it will never be built within the federal credit timeframe (maybe for a tiny, tiny selection of people it will be).

 

[edatoakrun]

AWD and Performance orders expected to open late next week, according to EM...

This is also why I've given up on owning a model 3. I put a reservation in last year, but I am not one to be upsold, and Tesla has no apparent plans to actually build the $35k (3)...

Last year somebody posted on this thread that the average sales price for the "$35 k" "more affordable" Tesla model 3 sold in 2018 would probably be close to $60,000.

Remarkable foresight...

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Even if the $35k version isn't produced any time soon they still made a big stride in reducing the entry point for long range EVs. Perhaps the EV parallel of Moore's law is that prices come down 20% every five years. Let's call it Cole's Law.

 

[WetEV]

Even if the $35k version isn't ever produced T esla has put pressure on all of the other car manufacturers by just talking about it. Tesla may not be able to produce this car at break even. Toyota might. Ford might. GM might. Nissan might. Honda might.

The demand is there. The technology is getting better and cheaper. T esla might not be as good at auto manufacturing as the big ones, but one of the big ones might build something like this and make money. They know that. The question is who? Don't want to be last, or even second.

Look at the wall. What is that on it? Can you read it?

 

[EVDRIVER]

Even if the $35k version isn't ever produced T esla has put pressure on all of the other car manufacturers by just talking about it. Tesla may not be able to produce this car at break even. Toyota might. Ford might. GM might. Nissan might. Honda might.

The demand is there. The technology is getting better and cheaper. T esla might not be as good at auto manufacturing as the big ones, but one of the big ones might build something like this and make money. They know that. The question is who? Don't want to be last, or even second.

Look at the wall. What is that on it? Can you read it?

The drive and battery system in the 3 is superior to anything on the road. They could make the 3 far less expensive without AP, that would eliminate huge costs in cameras, redundancies of controllers, motors, wiring etc. People seem to forget that every 3 is loaded with costly equipment intended for autonomous driving that is not used or partially used in many cars. Nissan would not be able to offer a LEAF for even close to what they are now if every car had this pack, and all the hardware each 3 ships with, knowing Nissans pricing it would likely be even more if it had the same technology. You just can't do generic comparisons of basic features of the 3 to other EVs because the details separate the cars significantly.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Even if the $35k version isn't ever produced T esla has put pressure on all of the other car manufacturers by just talking about it. Tesla may not be able to produce this car at break even. Toyota might. Ford might. GM might. Nissan might. Honda might.

The demand is there. The technology is getting better and cheaper. T esla might not be as good at auto manufacturing as the big ones, but one of the big ones might build something like this and make money. They know that. The question is who? Don't want to be last, or even second.

Look at the wall. What is that on it? Can you read it?

The drive and battery system in the 3 is superior to anything on the road. They could make the 3 far less expensive without AP, that would eliminate huge costs in cameras, redundancies of controllers, motors, wiring etc. People seem to forget that every 3 is loaded with costly equipment intended for autonomous driving that is not used or partially used in many cars. Nissan would not be able to offer a LEAF for even close to what they are now if every car had this pack, and all the hardware each 3 ships with, knowing Nissans pricing it would likely be even more if it had the same technology. You just can't do generic comparisons of basic features of the 3 to other EVs because the details separate the cars significantly.

This statement assumes costs to develop AP is equal among manufacturers. Maybe, maybe not. What is obvious is that Tesla is investing heavily into "possible" future profits with immature technology. AP will happen but Tesla's version is a long way from maturity which puts them on near even footage with everyone else but at least the other companies understand the cost analysis factor.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

AWD and Performance orders expected to open late next week, according to EM...

This is also why I've given up on owning a model 3. I put a reservation in last year, but I am not one to be upsold, and Tesla has no apparent plans to actually build the $35k (3)...

Last year somebody posted on this thread that the average sales price for the "$35 k" "more affordable" Tesla model 3 sold in 2018 would probably be close to $60,000.

Remarkable foresight...

If you did say that, it seems you nailed it. To date the cheapest has been $49k, with many getting paint or wheel upgrades, plus EAP, and some even paying FSD, taking the price to high 50's.

Once AWD and/or P is thrown in on top, the price will go even further.

@EVDriver, you make a good point which brings us to conclude that those who do not get EAP are costing Tesla some significant money with the cameras and computer but they do not gain in any way.

I am extremely confident that Tesla will produce a smattering of $35k variations, at some much later date, and in short order terminate that as an option because it makes them no money and is too devoid of features anyway. They will probably make EAP standard as part of the justification for the new base price.

 

[lorenfb]

I am extremely confident that Tesla will produce a smattering of $35k variations, at some much later date, and in short order terminate that as an option because it makes them no money and is too devoid of features anyway. They will probably make EAP standard as part of the justification for the new base price.

Read this article.

More owners than ever are deferring placing orders

Even then I expect the option to be packaged with others such that the $35,000 Model 3 will never be available.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4173076-tesla-deliveries-trump-production?dr=1

Yes, he's a short seller (so what), i.e. he makes some good points relative to your comments.

 

[dgpcolorado]

This is also why I've given up on owning a model 3. I put a reservation in last year, but I am not one to be upsold, and Tesla has no apparent plans to actually build the $35k, certainly it will never be built within the federal credit timeframe (maybe for a tiny, tiny selection of people it will be).

The tax credit will last through at least Q3 2019 — and likely Q4 2019. It may well be that the 35k version won't be available with the full tax credit but I expect that it will be available with the half and quarter tax credit for some. If that isn't good enough, so be it. Since I don't qualify for the tax credit, being much too low income, I can't use it anyway.

Regardless, if Tesla can sell all the cars it can make for the next year or two, that's a good thing in my — admittedly biased — view. Others here disagree, as we've seen.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I for one certainly don't fault them for focussing on the higher margin heavily optioned models. This is a critical time for their financial survival when they need to prioritize bringing in as much money as the traffic will bear over the egalitarian dream of affordable EVs for all.

 

[Nubo]

I for one certainly don't fault them for focussing on the higher margin heavily optioned models. This is a critical time for their financial survival when they need to prioritize bringing in as much money as the traffic will bear over the egalitarian dream of affordable EVs for all.

The story changes when you've got somebody else's money in your hands for a "reservation". When I have a reservation I expect to be served in turn. That isn't "egalitarian"; it's simple common decency which isn't something to discard during critical times.

 

[evnow]

After waiting for several years - and coming close to buying one multiple times - finally got my Tesla yesterday.

I had to buy LR, instead of SR I had planned - mainly because the WA sales tax exemption, worth $3k, is expiring this month. Ofcourse it is not clear whether SR will be available by the time the full federal tax credit ends.

Tesla is delivering a lot of cars in WA because of sales tax exemption ending. There were 6 cars being delivered at the same time. We had a group orientation. It was all quite well planned - the cars were very good cosmetically. We were all out within an hour compared to over 3 hours it takes me to get a car with other dealers.

 

[edatoakrun]

This is also why I've given up on owning a model 3. I put a reservation in last year, but I am not one to be upsold, and Tesla has no apparent plans to actually build the $35k (3)...

Last year somebody posted on this thread that the average sales price for the "$35 k" "more affordable" Tesla model 3 sold in 2018 would probably be close to $60,000.

Remarkable foresight...

If you did say that, it seems you nailed it...

Actually, even the most ardent of TSLA boosters now seem to acknowledge that upselling model 3 reservation holders to very expensive versions is now just one of many essential requirements (and perhaps the least difficult...see full article) if Musk's latest claim of "bottom-line profitability" is achievable this year.

Tesla's Pathway To Profitability

...Elon's prediction of bottom-line profitability in Q3 means that, even though the units produced will be lower than previously guided due to production delays, the profitability per unit will have to be higher than I had estimated, because otherwise Tesla could not be profitable as early as the third quarter.

...average selling price is underestimated. I assume $55,000 ASP for 1H18 and $60,000 for 2H18, as dual motor and performance options are around the corner, with the standard range pushed to early 2019. Model 3 ASP will likely remain high through the end of the year, but everyone should compile their own ASP assumptions going down to each trim and assigning appropriate weights...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4164805-teslas-pathway-profitability

And another TSLA (temporary?) staff departure was reported over the weekend news dump:

As Model 3 production hits critical moment, Tesla’s top engineer taking a break

Tesla Inc.’s top engineer overseeing vehicle development is taking a leave of absence from the company at a crucial moment when the electric-car maker is struggling to boost production of the Model 3 sedan, according to people familiar with the matter.

Doug Field, Tesla’s TSLA, -1.30% senior vice president of engineering, is stepping away from the company for several weeks, these people said. One person described the absence as a “six-week sabbatical,” and Tesla declined to say when he would come back.

“Doug is just taking some time off to recharge and spend time with his family,” a Tesla spokesman said in a statement. “He has not left Tesla.”...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-model-3-production-hits-critical-moment-teslas-top-engineer-takes-a-few-weeks-off-2018-05-12

 

[Zythryn]

After waiting for several years - and coming close to buying one multiple times - finally got my Tesla yesterday.

I had to buy LR, instead of SR I had planned - mainly because the WA sales tax exemption, worth $3k, is expiring this month. Ofcourse it is not clear whether SR will be available by the time the full federal tax credit ends.

Tesla is delivering a lot of cars in WA because of sales tax exemption ending. There were 6 cars being delivered at the same time. We had a group orientation. It was all quite well planned - the cars were very good cosmetically. We were all out within an hour compared to over 3 hours it takes me to get a car with other dealers.

Congratulations!

How long between getting your VIN and delivery?

 

[SageBrush]

and Tesla has no apparent plans to actually build the $35k

BS.
Production is slated for late 2018

Your entire argument about being forced to spend $60k USD to obtain a Model 3 in the first half of 2018 is trollish garbage.
The actual minimum was the car with premium interior and the larger battery:
35K + 5K + 9k = $49k USD

 

[palmermd]

I for one certainly don't fault them for focussing on the higher margin heavily optioned models. This is a critical time for their financial survival when they need to prioritize bringing in as much money as the traffic will bear over the egalitarian dream of affordable EVs for all.

The story changes when you've got somebody else's money in your hands for a "reservation". When I have a reservation I expect to be served in turn. That isn't "egalitarian"; it's simple common decency which isn't something to discard during critical times.

They have had my money since before the reveal as I was an in store reservation, and this is what I fully expected for delivery. It is how they rolled out the Model S, even if you had an early reservation, its how they rolled out the X, even if you had an early reservation. And while they could have been clearer about this, it is how they planned to roll out the 3. I'm happy to just wait for the standard range pack so Tesla can work out their production issues and sell more profitable cars until they get it figured out. In the end, I'll get a better car. Am I happy about the wait....not really; I wish they could have figured out the production quicker so that I'd be getting my car by now, but I cant control i,t so I cant worry about it.

If you want to get angry about Tesla car deliveries, the Roadster is the one that really got screwed up. People put down a reservation for a car, and they deposited more than I'm planning to spend on the entire Model 3, and then just before deliveries they raised the prices by $5,000-$10,000. That would, and did, really piss people off. https://www.wired.com/2009/01/tesla-raises-pr/

We'll get our cars. Don't get pulled into the hype, just be patient.

 

[SageBrush]

I figure that my $1000 reservation money in Tesla's hands is costing me about $2-3 in opportunity cost a month.
That is about the last thing in the world that concerns me.

 

[edatoakrun]

I figure that my $1000 reservation money in Tesla's hands is costing me about $2-3 in opportunity cost a month...

Financial illiteracy certainly seems to be working in TSLA's favor RE vehicle deposits.

As TSLA's junk bonds continue to fall in price, the large and increasing risk premium for (less secure) vehicle deposits means the true opportunity cost of loaning your money to TSLA is several times what many depositors appear to think it is.

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?symbol=TSLA4530907&ticker=FTSLA4530907

 

[SageBrush]

I figure that my $1000 reservation money in Tesla's hands is costing me about $2-3 in opportunity cost a month...

Financial illiteracy certainly seems to be working in TSLA's favor RE vehicle deposits.

As TSLA's junk bonds continue to fall in price, the large and increasing risk premium for (less secure) vehicle deposits means the true opportunity cost of loaning your money to TSLA is several times what many depositors appear to think it is.

No, moron. The reservation money is not part of the Tesla general finances. It is not an unsecured bond at the bottom of the creditor ladder. It sits in an interest bearing account and is not subject to creditor demands, or in fact used for Tesla operations.

I have known you to be a troll for years. Now I add dimwit.

 

[edatoakrun]

I figure that my $1000 reservation money in Tesla's hands is costing me about $2-3 in opportunity cost a month...

Financial illiteracy certainly seems to be working in TSLA's favor RE vehicle deposits.

As TSLA's junk bonds continue to fall in price, the large and increasing risk premium for (less secure) vehicle deposits means the true opportunity cost of loaning your money to TSLA is several times what many depositors appear to think it is.

No, moron. The reservation money is not part of the Tesla general finances. It is not an unsecured bond at the bottom of the creditor ladder. It sits in an interest bearing account and is not subject to creditor demands, or in fact used for Tesla operations.

I have known you to be a troll for years. Now I add dimwit.

As I said, Financial illiteracy certainly seems to be working in TSLA's favor RE vehicle deposits...

Model 3 Reservation Term & Conditions

https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/model_3_reservation_agreement.pdf