Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[garsh]

There must be something about a plain old trunk that helps keep costs low lower

That would be the much lighter weight to be handled by smaller, cheaper struts, not having to design the rear glass to withstand the shock of slamming it shut, and not having to route third brake light wires through a gasket to the hatch.

 

[lorenfb]

Their current cars are already profitable but they're spending all their income (and borrowing) to build out the infrastructure (and the massive, world-production-doubling, battery factory in particular) to reach their goals.

Right, then they are NOT profitable! Without a volume vehicle in their product line to sustain the G&A/R&D,
they'll never be profitable selling low volume vehicles between $80K - $125K. Then in the long run, fail as many
others that have attempted to enter the automotive market, e.g. Fisker.

Their goal is not to show a quarterly profit. It's to invest in our future. And their efforts are exemplary and to be lauded and duplicated, not dismissed.

Ah, so Tesla is a paternalistic endeavor, and not the typical business which is to enhance shareholder wealth,
right?

It's a lot harder for Nissan as they need to maintain their existing ICE-based business. But Tesla's continued success will and is encouraging other manufacturers to get moving.

So Nissan needs to be profitable with their BEV products to sustain the ICE product line, which is not the
case for Tesla that can have an unprofitable business because they're paternalistic, O.K. Seems like the
logic used by the typical TSLA shareholder.

And it's only because of Tesla that ICEV OEMs have EVs and consider development of other vehicles types
to replace ICEVs in the future, right?

Listening to too much of the Elon hyperbole, maybe?

 

[keydiver]

I really hate that glass roof, I need to wear a broad brim hat when I drive to cut the heat and glare?

In one of the test drive videos, the engineer is heard saying that a pano roof and a metal roof will be offered also as options.

 

[lpickup]

Their current cars are already profitable but they're spending all their income (and borrowing) to build out the infrastructure (and the massive, world-production-doubling, battery factory in particular) to reach their goals.

Right, then they are NOT profitable! Without a volume vehicle in their product line to sustain the G&A/R&D,
they'll never be profitable selling low volume vehicles between $80K - $125K. Then in the long run, fail as many
others that have attempted to enter the automotive market, e.g. Fisker.

I think what he is saying (and if not, I will say it), is that the cars on their own are profitable at what they are charging for them. However, they are expanding their business into new areas which takes capital, which then makes the company as a whole not profitable. But there is a good reason for that, as they are investing in future profits.

You can twist the numbers if you wish, but don't change the point that Christopher was trying to make, and that is that they ARE making money on each car that they sell.

 

[lorenfb]

You can twist the numbers if you wish, but don't change the point that Christopher was trying to make, and that is that they ARE making money on each car that they sell.

Sorry, you can't just "count" the direct costs, i.e. materials & labor, that accrue to producing a product when
determining it's profitability. Remember, there're continuing engineering costs, e.g. software updates,
repair costs, facilities costs, the SC network, and sales costs, that are not calculated in the gross profit
calculation which many always quote as to Tesla profitability. It's just not Giga, plant expansion, and future
product R&D for future growth that can be thought of as secondary to profitability.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

That's a strange thing to say. You just trolling for replies? Their current cars are already profitable but they're spending all their income (and borrowing) to build out the infrastructure (and the massive, world-production-doubling, battery factory in particular) to reach their goals. Their goal is not to show a quarterly profit. It's to invest in our future. And their efforts are exemplary and to be lauded and duplicated, not dismissed.

It's a lot harder for Nissan as they need to maintain their existing ICE-based business. But Tesla's continued success will and is encouraging other manufacturers to get moving. Which is another of Tesla's stated goals – Elon knows they'll never be able to do this alone.

Silly rabbit.

"It's a lot harder for Nissan as they need to maintain their existing ICE-based business. "

who is silly? Nissan for even "wanting" to sustain a business that is unsustainable?

Tesla's grand plans are laudable but unlike the Electric Vehicle who has a proven track record of reliability primarily from the benefits of much less moving parts; the manufacturing process has yet to find that formula. The likelihood of success is much smaller than the real threat of a single supplier failing and toppling Tesla's entire house of cards.

 

[Rebel44]

You can twist the numbers if you wish, but don't change the point that Christopher was trying to make, and that is that they ARE making money on each car that they sell.

Sorry, you can't just "count" the direct costs, i.e. materials & labor, that accrue to producing a product when
determining it's profitability. Remember, there're continuing engineering costs, e.g. software updates,
repair costs, facilities costs, the SC network, and sales costs, that are not calculated in the gross profit
calculation which many always quote as to Tesla profitability. It's just not Giga, plant expansion, and future
product R&D for future growth that can be thought of as secondary to profitability.

Its normal (all car makers do it) to exclude such costs from margin calculations.

 

[lpickup]

You can twist the numbers if you wish, but don't change the point that Christopher was trying to make, and that is that they ARE making money on each car that they sell.

Sorry, you can't just "count" the direct costs, i.e. materials & labor, that accrue to producing a product when
determining it's profitability.

Okay, fair enough, but you also can't count all costs that would be more fairly allocated to future products such as the Powerwall and Model 3 when determining the profitability of existing products (Model S and Model X).

 

[evnow]

It's a lot harder for Nissan as they need to maintain their existing ICE-based business.

What does this mean ? What is "it" ?

 

[minispeed]

There must be something about a plain old trunk that helps keep costs low lower

That would be the much lighter weight to be handled by smaller, cheaper struts, not having to design the rear glass to withstand the shock of slamming it shut, and not having to route third brake light wires through a gasket to the hatch.

Prob easier to make a stronger and safer car with the smaller opening too. Not only does it allow a brace above the rear seats but they can use the glass to add rigidity. I've always questioned how much glass actually adds but they say that a car with an intact windshield is much safer than one with a crack.

The lack of a hatch back is why I didn't put a deposit down. I'd rather have a used S or even pay more/wait longer for a used X. Used P85 S's have already touched at the expected value of a top end model 3.

 

[minispeed]

Having just sat in a Model S yesterday, I found this interesting on the Model 3's approach to the instrumentation, mapping, etc. -- 15" center stack and although this photo doesn't show it; everything is on this center screen; I suppose it might simplify left and right hand drive configurations as well (a few auto makers have taken this approach; some old GM Saturn models and my son's now aging Scion Xa) not everyone likes these but the clarity, etc. is quite good. It's also high enough to give it a glance ... will be interesting if they also offer a 'heads up' speed, etc. display on the windshield to supplement this.

I'm not sure I believe the console layout shown last night will survive the development process that will take place over the next 1.5+ years. The interior was clearly mocked up in the photos I saw, so I expect a more "integrated" look and feel in the final product, along with a more traditional driver display. But hey, I could be wrong.

From what they've said about moving the seats forward to increase rear seat room I think the central display will stay. Also since Tesla is pushing automation the location of the primary displays will matter much less as people get more comfortable with them.

As a driver of a mini and a second gen prius (3rd gen too but isn't as bad). A central display is very easy to get use to, even easier with digital speedos vs the analogue ones the mini's had.

I also hope a HUD display also gets offered, it would compliment this perfectly, with automation you could also push cell phone notifications to it too and it would be something that can offer more and more use years later.

 

[Valdemar]

The lack of a hatch back is why I didn't put a deposit down. I'd rather have a used S or even pay more/wait longer for a used X. Used P85 S's have already touched at the expected value of a top end model 3.

+1. Although the cost of out warranty repairs, or, gulp, a full battery replacement, on a used S or X, is a bit disconcerting. Those doors on the X, call me a skeptic but I just can't see them to be reliable long-term. I suppose buying certified alleviates these concerns to a certain point.

 

[cwerdna]

The lack of a hatch back is why I didn't put a deposit down. I'd rather have a used S or even pay more/wait longer for a used X. Used P85 S's have already touched at the expected value of a top end model 3.

+1. Although the cost of out warranty repairs, or, gulp, a full battery replacement, on a used S or X, is a bit disconcerting. Those doors on the X, call me a skeptic but I just can't see them to be reliable long-term. I suppose buying certified alleviates these concerns to a certain point.

Heck, even the front (not falcon wing) doors on the Model X seem to have problems. See these, for example:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-auto-opening-and-closing-door-issues.62975/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-still-in-beta.66206/ (search for latch)

Re: the gull-wing doors/FWDs, there are many posts/threads on problems w/those like https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/so-sad-the-x-is-going-back-to-service-center.66455/.

 

[cwerdna]

They channeled Apple, for sure.

Really?

Yes. The lines are similar to Apple fanboys lining up for the latest iPhones. I can't think of lineups like these for any cars.

The artificially created buzz and hype by allowing people to reserve at stores. It wouldn't be as interesting for the media if people were all doing it in front of their computers.

I'd imagine that execs and many employees at virtually all other automakers that have an EV program are shaking their head in disbelief at the lines and the above.

Hardly!

Why do you say that? What vehicles (esp. EVs) have generated the lines, media buzz and people plunking down $1K deposits for reservations for a car that they'd never seen and knew virtually nothing about? Even after the reveal, not that much is known.

It'll be interesting to see if this will cause the Model S sales to tank.

Just a scaled Model S with lower profitability, i.e. greater losses.

Bottom line: A new financial concept to generate a needed cash infusion.

Interesting, but yes, the reservation money is now past $200 million and if 200K reservations are fulfilled, that's over $7 billion in car revenue. Of course, it'll take some time to ramp production.

 

[evnow]

Yes. The lines are similar to Apple fanboys lining up for the latest iPhones. I can't think of lineups like these for any cars.

Interestingly, iPhose SE release on the same day was completely swamped out of news.

Why do you say that? What vehicles (esp. EVs) have generated the lines, media buzz and people plunking down $1K deposits for reservations for a car that they'd never seen and knew virtually nothing about? Even after the reveal, not that much is known.

I'd say there was a lot of interest when Leaf was announced etc. But after 5 years, we are at a different level. I'm sure BMW, Merc etc senior execs got this bit of news as the top item in their daily news briefs.

Bottom line: A new financial concept to generate a needed cash infusion.

Interesting, but yes, the reservation money is now past $200 million and if 200K reservations are fulfilled, that's over $7 billion in car revenue. Of course, it'll take some time to ramp production.

This is not the entire, or even the most important, story. The big thing is - this assures wallstreet cred - which raises stock price and reduces the cost of funding 3 facilities a great deal for Tesla. This point is more important than the paltry $200M interest free loan.

 

[Christopher]

It's a lot harder for Nissan as they need to maintain their existing ICE-based business.

What does this mean ? What is "it" ?

Sorry about that... I'm referring to the effort to move to sustainable transport options, in particular, battery electric vehicles. While Ghosn is clearly determined, they can't simply stop production of their ICE vehicles and switch over – heck, battery tech is not even far enough along yet, let alone the impact to their business and all related businesses. They can't even show off what the next generation LEAF will be capable of for fear of dampening current LEAF sales even further. GM can do it with the Bolt since it is a different enough vehicle compared to the Volt.

While Tesla and Nissan are both first movers, Tesla has an advantage in that they don't have an existing ICE-based business to maintain. Of course, Nissan has other advantages like more production capability and experience.

Regardless, it's not really a competition to get to sustainable transport. No one or two companies can provide all the vehicles for the world. It's going to take all (well, the ones that survive the transformation) to get us there.

 

[Rebel44]

Article with some new and very good info, from recent Elons tweets:

http://electrek.co/2016/04/03/model-3-tweetstorm-tons-of-new-info-on-production-ramp-dashboard-trunk-and-more-updating/

lack of instrument panel, trunk, production etc. being discussed

RWD confirmed as a base - AWD will cost less, than ($5K) it does on Model S etc.

 

[lorenfb]

The big thing is - this assures wallstreet cred - which raises stock price and reduces the cost of funding 3 facilities a great deal for Tesla. This point is more important than the paltry $200M interest free loan.

We'll have to wait and see whether "this assures wallstreet cred" will occur. Remember, Tesla doesn't
have a great record for delivery commitments. Besides, the Model 3 specifications haven't been fully defined,
and most importantly what the $1K deposit is really worth to a consumer, e.g. does it guarantee SC free use
and not an option. It's highly questionable whether any Model 3's will be delivered at less than $40K before
2020.

Maybe some of those who have made a reservation could enlighten us by providing a Tesla reservation email
acknowledgement of what the reservation really provides other than an option to enter a queue to buy
something at a future date. There appears to be no; set price, price structure for options, one's place in the
queue, nor a worst case delivery date. So it appears that the Model 3 reservation is of little value either
to the consumer or to a BEV future market forecast.

 

[Firetruck41]

I am not a Tesla superfan, at all, and have not drank the koolaid. However, I sure am glad I didn't get any of those grapes, they were probably picked way too soon.

 

[cwerdna]

The big thing is - this assures wallstreet cred - which raises stock price and reduces the cost of funding 3 facilities a great deal for Tesla. This point is more important than the paltry $200M interest free loan.

We'll have to wait and see whether "this assures wallstreet cred" will occur. Remember, Tesla doesn't
have a great record for delivery commitments. Besides, the Model 3 specifications haven't been fully defined,
and most importantly what the $1K deposit is really worth to a consumer, e.g. does it guarantee SC free use
and not an option. It's highly questionable whether any Model 3's will be delivered at less than $40K before
2020.

Maybe some of those who have made a reservation could enlighten us by providing a Tesla reservation email
acknowledgement of what the reservation really provides other than an option to enter a queue to buy
something at a future date. There appears to be no; set price, price structure for options, one's place in the
queue, nor a worst case delivery date. So it appears that the Model 3 reservation is of little value either
to the consumer or to a BEV future market forecast.

On the above note, there were complaints about what the point of making a Model X reservation was. See https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/what-was-the-point-of-making-a-reservation.63913/. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/what-was-the-point-of-making-a-reservation.63913/#post-1401107 was a response.

It's also interesting that today, I noticed Tesla has REALLY shortened the Model 3 reservation agreement. Many sites were reporting on the longer one (like http://www.teslarati.com/details-behind-tesla-model-3-reservation-agreement/ and http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103098_heres-the-tesla-model-3-reservation-agreement-for-thursday). A copy is at http://web.archive.org/web/20160322200924/https://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/model_3_reservation_agreement.pdf.

The version currently at https://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/model_3_reservation_agreement.pdf is MUCH shorter (copy at http://web.archive.org/web/20160404063136/https://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/model_3_reservation_agreement.pdf).