Official Tesla Model 3 thread
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garsh
Well-known member
I think the "cred" is the fact that Tesla has 275k+ people who are interested in the new car enough to give up $1000 for little more than the prospect of being one of the first 275k+ people to get one.lorenfb said:
Oh, it's of huge value for market forecasting. This isn't just a pole. This is people who gave up cold-hard cash. And you're right - those people get very little in return for their $1000 other than some ill-defined concept of being placed in a queue. But that ends up being a very strong signal to those who are trying to figure out the market for the Model 3.
Oh, it's of huge value for market forecasting. This isn't just a pole. This is people who gave up cold-hard cash. And you're right - those people get very little in return for their $1000 other than some ill-defined concept of being placed in a queue. But that ends up being a very strong signal to those who are trying to figure out the market for the Model 3.[/quote]
Not only the market of the Model 3, but the desire for a moderately priced BEV with a 200+ mile range.
I'm hoping many other companies will see this and kick start, or strengthen their own EV plans.
lpickup
Well-known member
lorenfb said:
No need to produce a reservation e-mail to confirm this. You've laid it out EXACTLY as was expected. The reservation does not GUARANTEE any price, priority or delivery date. This is exactly the same way I understood it before putting down a deposit, and nothing has changed as a result of putting down a deposit.
lorenfb said:
Now here is where you lose me. What is your logic in jumping from the first statement to the latter? At the very least you should have added "in my opinion" or "in my situation".
The way I see it, there is no GUARANTEE, but there is SOME information that is reliable to within a certain degree.
For example, the base price being $35K. I think we can just about take that to the bank as it's been re-affirmed over and over. Tesla would keep it at $35K, even if it meant taking a loss, just to save face. Moreover, based on what we saw during the reveal, $35K for a 215 mile class car with autopilot safety features (let's even call that lane departure and collision avoidance warnings--even though I think it may be slightly more active than a warning beep), and supercharging capability (even if you have to pay per use), is a hell of a bargain. Even if it goes up a few $K, I think it will still be quite competitive with what the BoltEV for example offers with similar features.
As for options pricing, there is far less firm information. Best we can do is take price differentials between similar jumps in battery capacity, AWD, panoramic roofs, unlimited supercharging capability that we saw on MS/X and use that as a worst-case for M3. We need to consider, at least in the case of battery capacity increases, that the cost per kWh will need to be scaled down somewhat, as that is one of the primary means by which the M3 will be affordable. Even at that worst case pricing though, again, you can still get a VERY attractively priced 260+ mile range BEV. I don't expect Chevy to even offer larger batteries on the BoltEV, leaving the LEAF 2.0 as possibly the only viable contender in the 250+ mile range (and that's optimistic in my opinion) in that timeframe. I'm skeptical that LEAF 2.0 will have 250 mile range. I think it will be closer to 200, but would be happy to be wrong. We just don't know because Nissan is not sharing any info (and that's a good thing too--we don't want early announcements of LEAF 2.0 to cannibalize LEAF 1.x sales like what happened with Volt 1.0).
The last item is rollout. Obviously this is the biggest unknown, and the thing that Tesla suffers the worst reputation. I don't think anyone, even Elon, believes that late 2017 is real. But it would not be fair to assume indefinite delays either. I won't trot out a crystal ball here, but simply offer my opinion that it probably won't be as technically challenging as the MX rollout due to the fact that it's a simpler vehicle, and with each passing month Tesla is getting more experienced at volume production. On the negative side is being able to ramp up and drive down cost of battery production, as this is a key element of the M3 strategy. If there are delays, it will surround this aspect of it. But the why is not the important point, it's more the when. And since I'm not willing to go out on a limb to estimate that when, I'll just say that I have a less pessimistic view of delays based on the extraordinary deposits put down. The cash influx aside, which should allow them to invest in talent and equipment to help ramp things up faster, simply the concrete evidence of the demand should enable them to get significant amounts of funding together to help speed up the ramp.
But let's get back to the original topic, which was the value of putting in a reservation. In my situation, there are two critical needs I have: I've got one or two vehicles I may need to replace sometime in the 2018-2019 timeframe. One is a lease vehicle (Volt), so a firm deadline of March 2019 on that. The other (my LEAF) is a little looser. The problem with the LEAF is that this winter I arrived at work with sometimes 2 bars left (albeit starting at 80% charge). winter 2017 I may have to start charging to 100% to make it. Winter 2018 might be the last time I can even make it at all on the very coldest days, so again, would be looking to do SOMETHING in the Dec 2018-March 2019 timeframe. Now I love my LEAF and if that "something" turns out to be a battery replacement, then so be it. But one scenario is that the delays on the M3 are relatively minor and the priority works out that my turn in line comes up sometime in mid-late 2018. In that case, the M3 replaces the LEAF. If I could take delivery in early 2019, then the M3 could replace the Volt and I do something different about the LEAF (new battery? new LEAF? new other brand EV?) My risk is that it goes much later than early 2019, which is why I see value in putting the deposit down: it improves (but yes, does not GUARANTEE) my chances that I will be able to hit the 2019 deadline(s) I have.
A very optimistic ramp schedule would probably have Tesla make 100K M3's in 2018 and 200-250K M3's in 2019. If I hadn't put a deposit down, and with close to 300K reservation holders now, I'd probably be looking at late 2019/early 2020 absolute best case before getting a M3, which frankly is too late. The only guarantee I would have is that I would definitely have to make other plans to replace my Volt and do something about my LEAF. As it is I'm probably cutting it very close, although my hope is that I'll just make it. But even if I don't, and I have to go with plan B for both cars, my deposit is refundable and I'm out probably $60 of interest on my $1000.
But I still haven't addressed why it's VALUABLE. The reason is my other requirement: my next vehicle must be capable of making long distance trips, one of which I take annually being 800 miles each way. The Volt meets this need today, albeit it burns gas while doing so, and it really is not a very comfortable drive. A 200 mile car (such as the BoltEV) will not work in my opinion since an 80% charge can only get you 160 miles, which would require 4 or more stops for this trip (I'm really trying to keep it to 3) (I'll assume for a moment that CCS charger rollout on this route will happen, but I'm REALLY skeptical of that since it cuts through 2 EV-unfriendly states, and 250 miles of non-interstate highway). If the LEAF 2.0 has a 250+ mile range, it could potentially be a candidate, but if it stays on CHAdeMO for quick charging (I'm really hoping Nissan has been talking to Tesla about Supercharger access), then even though 3 stops may be possible, those 3 stops may be extraordinarily lengthy. So when it comes to true BEVs (which is extremely important to me), the only options I can see at this point are the Model 3 or potentially, but not likely in my opinion, LEAF 2.0. If those don't pan out, I'll have to settle for a range extended EV. Yes, it's a gamble whether my timeframe will be met, but it certainly worth it to me to put down a deposit to substantially increase my chances of having it work out.
And by the way, I happen to think that crowdfunding an affordable EV (which is really what this amounts to), is a worthwhile endeavor, in the same way that I'm willing to pay a 40% premium on electricity for my LEAF to make sure that it runs on clean energy. I'm sure that not everyone would see it that way, but I do.
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
Expect to see some creative bundling of options that will drive the price much higher than $35k.
palmermd
Well-known member
Rebel44 said:
Elon said he expects average sell price to be about $42,000.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/715934657720639488
Well sure. My wife, for one, will want most of the options so I expect we're around the $45k range.LTLFTcomposite said:
Likely to also see some creative bundling of deliveries to maximize the number of buyers/leasers who can take the $7500 credit. One more advantage Tesla has over say, Nissan or others is they can decide to deliver unit 199,999 on the last day of the 1st calendar quarter and then deliver 200,000 to N in the following quarter and those buyers still get the full credit. Likewise, they can maximize the phase-out amount of $3750 and then $1875 in the same way.
evnow
Well-known member
I'm talking about wall st cred - not what it means for reservation holders. Compared to some 10k reservations, 300k reservations builds a lot more cred.lorenfb said:
evnow said:
Yes, I knew what you meant. Wall Street "sees" mixed value in the 300K reservations, i.e. given the overall
price change for 4/4/16 which includes the negative movement after the close when the missed guidance
was reported. The stock movement of the last six weeks had more covariance with the overall market
appreciation than from the 300K reservations, which contributed little and was overshadowed by the Q1
sales number miss.
I suspect Wall St. doesn't consider the Model 3 a down-market car and neither do I. GM's Bolt and Nissan LEAF 2.0 are not competition.
So far, Musk seems to know how to shake the money tree and previous cash infusions have fortified the stock price.
There's a lot of BMW, Audi, Lexus & Infiniti market share to feast on with the Model 3. ASP for Tesla S & X is around $100k.
Just cutting that amount in half with the Model 3 will still provide a vast market for at least the first couple of years. Tesla will likely do that with "must have" features alluded to in "Part 2" of the Model 3 unveiling. Teslas are in demand because they're a better driving experience and this feature will continue with the Model 3. BMW 3-series and Audi 4-series will probably take the biggest hit, at least in Calif. These guys know this and won't sit still. Not sure if Toyota or Nissan will do anything except shovel FCVs (Toyota) or aim lower (Nissan).
However, the Model 3 sales will be more exposed to macro economic conditions so, in 2 years time, many of those 300k reservations could need the money for more important things. But the next 6 months look pretty positive for SP IMHO.
So far, Musk seems to know how to shake the money tree and previous cash infusions have fortified the stock price.
There's a lot of BMW, Audi, Lexus & Infiniti market share to feast on with the Model 3. ASP for Tesla S & X is around $100k.
Just cutting that amount in half with the Model 3 will still provide a vast market for at least the first couple of years. Tesla will likely do that with "must have" features alluded to in "Part 2" of the Model 3 unveiling. Teslas are in demand because they're a better driving experience and this feature will continue with the Model 3. BMW 3-series and Audi 4-series will probably take the biggest hit, at least in Calif. These guys know this and won't sit still. Not sure if Toyota or Nissan will do anything except shovel FCVs (Toyota) or aim lower (Nissan).
However, the Model 3 sales will be more exposed to macro economic conditions so, in 2 years time, many of those 300k reservations could need the money for more important things. But the next 6 months look pretty positive for SP IMHO.
redLEAF
Well-known member
Let the speculation continue for other variants even before it hits the market ... looks good as a 'shooting brake' (British-speak for station wagon) to me but have always been a bit partial to as much functionality as possible in my cars ... what do you think?
http://www.carscoops.com/2016/04/tesla-model-3-is-there-room-for.html
http://www.carscoops.com/2016/04/tesla-model-3-is-there-room-for.html
evnow
Well-known member
How has TSLA correlated with overall market over the years ? Not very high.lorenfb said:
300k makes it much easier for TSLA to raise more cash cheaply than if they had 10k reservations - since the going in guess was Tesla will get a lot of reservations for 3.
LeafMuranoDriver
Well-known member
I personally love it! I'm a hatchback/wagon fan.redLEAF said:
aarond12
Well-known member
If that is available in 2020, when Tesla gets around to building my Model 3, I'm getting that body style!
redLEAF
Well-known member
Or perhaps you would like to wait and see if they offer it as a sports coupe instead ?
http://www.carscoops.com/2016/04/tesla-model-3-becomes-sportier-in.html
http://www.carscoops.com/2016/04/tesla-model-3-becomes-sportier-in.html
GetOffYourGas
Well-known member
Yeah, sign me up for the Coupe! Although maybe not in that color...
My wife already drives a very practical car, and she loves it. The Model III would be my car, so I might as well get what I want - a sporty 2-door coupe!
My wife already drives a very practical car, and she loves it. The Model III would be my car, so I might as well get what I want - a sporty 2-door coupe!
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
evnow said:
no it doesn't. That works with a company that already has a track record of volume production like Ford, Chevy, etc... but with a company that has only put out high margin, low volume products and has been pretty much been behind schedule since day one? (after all, they aren't caught up in S or X right?)
The ideology with low margin, high volume is a completely different World. Tesla just about owns the luxury car market and that is where they need to concentrate on...
