Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[EVDRIVER]

I normally defend Tesla from a market standpoint, and have recently said it's still a no-brainer. Starting to feel like that may not be the case. Tesla's only real moats are "market leadership", styling, and the charging network. If they don't get more cars on the road soon they could lose all of those things. I would worry about major competition from VW. I think a lot of people who are looking at a base Model 3 would also be interested in an eGolf. Right now the comparison isn't close, but a year from now it could be. If VW were to announce a 2019 eGolf with similar range and power as the Model 3 I bet a lot of people would withdraw their reservations.

Tesla won't loose any of that even with a slow rollout or even a company restructuring and I don't see new egolf being much threat to any of the EV maker future offerings. The moat Tesla has is more of an ocean at this point even if the company needs to be sold off.

You might not understand the average Model 3 subscription holder. They are not the same as the Model S owner. Apple and VW are serious cross-over brands. An electric Jetta would ruin Musk's day.

Pizza bet that the market share pull is insignificant at best? I've yet to loose a single EV pizza bet in more than 15 years

 

[webb14leafs]

Tesla won't loose any of that even with a slow rollout or even a company restructuring and I don't see new egolf being much threat to any of the EV maker future offerings. The moat Tesla has is more of an ocean at this point even if the company needs to be sold off.

You might not understand the average Model 3 subscription holder. They are not the same as the Model S owner. Apple and VW are serious cross-over brands. An electric Jetta would ruin Musk's day.

Pizza bet that the market share pull is insignificant at best? I've yet to loose a single EV pizza bet in more than 15 years

That would be a long term bet. Right now there's enough market that VW could release an eJetta, sell everyone that they make (likely < 50,000/year) and it wouldn't impact Tesla. Real bet would be 5 years from now does Tesla still lead in EV sales??

Man, that's still a tough bet. This little thought exercise is making me feel better about my Tesla stock.

 

[lorenfb]

I had the privilege of meeting both the general manager and service manager from a BMW dealership

Typically not much corporate technical product development insight/capabilities to be gathered from those at those positions in a product chain!

 

[EVDRIVER]

I had the privilege of meeting both the general manager and service manager from a BMW dealership

Typically not much corporate technical product development insight/capabilities to be gathered from those at those positions in a product chain!

People that service, support and hear from customers daily have more insight than disconnected corporate marketing types, they are more in touch provided they have the intellectual skills to assess and convey the data properly. I worked in sales, marketing, and product development in an executive position for a fortune 50 company and the power point pushers could not be more detached from the company offerings.

So what EV are you going to get of all of these discussed? Are you on the model 3 wait list since you have a passionate interest in the Tesla deliverables and VIN tracking?

 

[dm33]

I normally defend Tesla from a market standpoint, and have recently said it's still a no-brainer. Starting to feel like that may not be the case. Tesla's only real moats are "market leadership", styling, and the charging network. If they don't get more cars on the road soon they could lose all of those things. I would worry about major competition from VW. I think a lot of people who are looking at a base Model 3 would also be interested in an eGolf. Right now the comparison isn't close, but a year from now it could be. If VW were to announce a 2019 eGolf with similar range and power as the Model 3 I bet a lot of people would withdraw their reservations.

Tesla won't loose any of that even with a slow rollout or even a company restructuring and I don't see new egolf being much threat to any of the EV maker future offerings. The moat Tesla has is more of an ocean at this point even if the company needs to be sold off.

You might not understand the average Model 3 subscription holder. They are not the same as the Model S owner. Apple and VW are serious cross-over brands. An electric Jetta would ruin Musk's day.

I love VW but dislike the Jetta. I have a 1st week Model 3 reservation. An electric Jetta would do nothing for me even if VW ever actually made an EV and sold it nationwide which has yet to happen. They also don't have TMS. All in all despite how I like the way VWs normally handle (with the exception of the Jetta) I don't believe VW is a serious competitor to Tesla. They're all talk and zero action.

 

[SageBrush]

Tesla upped their VIN registrations to 3500 a week this week. Too early I think to say with confidence that we now have a 3500/week production rate but it may be so. We'll know for sure if they keep up this registration rate for another couple of weeks, or Elon confirms it in the upcoming finance call.

Really? Data please.

It is pasted all over the Tesla forum.

I think though that all Tesla production should be assumed, so for now about 1000 Model 3 and 2000 other Tesla models per week. That jives with Tesla pronouncements in the past week

 

[keydiver]

Real bet would be 5 years from now does Tesla still lead in EV sales??

I think the thing that most people forget about Elon's vision is that he doesn't CARE if Tesla is the #1 EV manufacturer. His goal was to create a car (Model 3) that would generate a pivot point in history, to move the world over to a more sustainable personal transportation. Whether Tesla is #1, or #10, in 5 years doesn't matter if he has acheived that goal. People keep acting like Tesla is an all-or-nothing proposition, like Apple or Google.
Speaking of my Model 3 reservation:

 

[dgpcolorado]

I think the thing that most people forget about Elon's vision is that he doesn't CARE if Tesla is the #1 EV manufacturer. His goal was to create a car (Model 3) that would generate a pivot point in history, to move the world over to a more sustainable personal transportation. Whether Tesla is #1, or #10, in 5 years doesn't matter if he has acheived that goal...

Just so.

Thanks for putting Tesla's goal back in perspective. Even if Tesla fails as a company — not that I expect that to happen — my sense is that the EV revolution should now continue (China's big push really helps).

 

[lorenfb]

I had the privilege of meeting both the general manager and service manager from a BMW dealership

Typically not much corporate technical product development insight/capabilities to be gathered from those at those positions in a product chain!

People that service, support and hear from customers daily have more insight than disconnected corporate marketing types, they are more in touch provided they have the intellectual skills to assess and convey the data properly. I worked in sales, marketing, and product development in an executive position for a fortune 50 company and the power point pushers could not be more detached from the company offerings.

So what EV are you going to get of all of these discussed? Are you on the model 3 wait list since you have a passionate interest in the Tesla deliverables and VIN tracking?

No reservation nor present desire to purchase a Tesla vehicle, as I don't buy products from companies that are not in a state of being
perceived as a long term viable entity. Besides, owning products, e.g. M3, with potential reliability problems and future high maintenance
costs are not on my buy list. Even if a vehicle is under warranty, who finds it productive to plan your day around a dealer appointment.
Notwithstanding the Leaf's battery degradation (15%, 4+ yrs, 60K miles), the Leaf is one of my best vehicles ever owned, which included
M/B, BMW, Porsche, VW, etc. The only Leaf dealer appointments over 4 yrs of ownership were for battery checks, i.e. for warranty
(waste of time).

 

[lorenfb]

Real bet would be 5 years from now does Tesla still lead in EV sales??

I think the thing that most people forget about Elon's vision is that he doesn't CARE if Tesla is the #1 EV manufacturer. His goal was to create a car (Model 3) that would generate a pivot point in history, to move the world over to a more sustainable personal transportation.

Such a benevolent CEO is Elon to society, but with little regard for scamming shareholders, bondholders, and M3 reservation holders, right?

 

[lorenfb]

Tesla upped their VIN registrations to 3500 a week this week. Too early I think to say with confidence that we now have a 3500/week production rate but it may be so. We'll know for sure if they keep up this registration rate for another couple of weeks, or Elon confirms it in the upcoming finance call.

Really? Data please.

It is pasted all over the Tesla forum.

I think though that all Tesla production should be assumed, so for now about 1000 Model 3 and 2000 other Tesla models per week. That jives with Tesla pronouncements in the past week

Right. Glad you corrected your "pie-in-the-shy" guesstimate of 3500. Tesla will be very lucky to achieve the latest goal of 2500/wk
by the end of Q1 2018.

 

[SageBrush]

Really? Data please.

It is pasted all over the Tesla forum.

I think though that all Tesla production should be assumed, so for now about 1000 Model 3 and 2000 other Tesla models per week. That jives with Tesla pronouncements in the past week

Right. Glad you corrected your "pie-in-the-shy" guesstimate of 3500. Tesla will be very lucky to achieve the latest goal of 2500/wk
by the end of Q1 2018.

Tesla reported it's best ever Model S/X quarter.

How is that Osborneing working out for you?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Yeah... no special reason for the S/X sales uptick either... :roll:

Well, I have to say Tesla has not really surprised me although they blew my T3 prediction out of the water. I predicted less than 100 sales in 2017 (was fully expecting about 4 or 5 if truth be told) but the reality is Nissan did not step up with the range we all "think" we need and yes, I still predict Nissan will easily break the annual LEAF sales record with the 2018.

The Bolt has range but little else and even small things were not addressed in the 2018 model which was a bit of shock to me so the best car out there for the money is still "potentially" the T3 but of course that all depends on how the tax credit shakes out come April.

But we still don't know what the 2018 LEAF will sell for. My guess is a well equipped SV on lease (so full fed credit assured) will be going for less than $25,000 so definitely NOT at the same price point as T3 or Bolt. Bolt had a great December due to sales event and paranoia but I think they will fall dramatically back to Earth. I still think they will do 35,000-40,000 (if Chevy builds that much) in 2018

and... did anyone see that article supposedly with 2019 LEAF specs? seems to me we talked about L2 charging speed somewhere??

granted all rumors since how would some car rag know?

 

[SageBrush]

Well, I have to say Tesla has not really surprised me although they blew my T3 prediction out of the water. I predicted less than 100 sales in 2017 (was fully expecting about 4 or 5 if truth be told)

You forgot to mention your concrete pronouncement that Nissan would be selling the 2018 LEAF all over the US before a Model 3 hit the streets.

Your prognostications have been awful, so you might as well try for a full confessional.

 

[edatoakrun]

Yeah... no special reason for the S/X sales uptick either...

Some pertinent facts from yesterday's report from TSLA.

TSLA's total vehicle production (S,X, and 3) has been stagnant for a-year-and-a-half.

It sold a more vehicles last quarter ("record sales!") by drawing down inventory, which it had accumulated in prior quarters due to weak demand.

The discounts it needed to make to make to clear out the stale production may show up in Q4 financial report next month...

TESLA TOTAL PRODUCTION BY QUARTER

Q32016: 25,185
Q42016: 24,882
Q12017: 25,418
Q22017: 25,708
Q32017: 25,336
Q42017: 24,565

Anyone else noticing a pattern here?...

https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer/status/948682235892264960

TSLA corporate outlook

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=20321&start=730#p515315

 

[EVDRIVER]

Typically not much corporate technical product development insight/capabilities to be gathered from those at those positions in a product chain!

People that service, support and hear from customers daily have more insight than disconnected corporate marketing types, they are more in touch provided they have the intellectual skills to assess and convey the data properly. I worked in sales, marketing, and product development in an executive position for a fortune 50 company and the power point pushers could not be more detached from the company offerings.

So what EV are you going to get of all of these discussed? Are you on the model 3 wait list since you have a passionate interest in the Tesla deliverables and VIN tracking?

No reservation nor present desire to purchase a Tesla vehicle, as I don't buy products from companies that are not in a state of being
perceived as a long term viable entity. Besides, owning products, e.g. M3, with potential reliability problems and future high maintenance
costs are not on my buy list. Even if a vehicle is under warranty, who finds it productive to plan your day around a dealer appointment.
Notwithstanding the Leaf's battery degradation (15%, 4+ yrs, 60K miles), the Leaf is one of my best vehicles ever owned, which included
M/B, BMW, Porsche, VW, etc. The only Leaf dealer appointments over 4 yrs of ownership were for battery checks, i.e. for warranty
(waste of time).

Plan your day around dealer appointments? Not sure what that means, no issues with mine and if I bring it in for anything I get a P100D loaner or other car paid by Tesla inc gas if loaners are out. Tesla has the best and no hassle service of any car I have ever had.

So why the deep interest in Tesla deliverables? Not sure why people that are not getting a Model 3 are following the deliverables so closely and critically,

 

[keydiver]

Such a benevolent CEO is Elon to society, but with little regard for scamming shareholders, bondholders, and M3 reservation holders, right?

Your comment infers that Elon has ill intents, but I have never seen any of that, so I would consider your comment to be both slanderous and libelous. I just think that he always sets unrealistic goals, as if all his employees are as driven as he is, and as as if things always go perfectly when manufacturing a new car. He himself has publicly admitted that the stock is way over-valued. I could have my Model 3 by the end of January if I would configure today, so how have I been scammed? Nissan, on the other hand, has scammed me. Their original 2012 battery came nowhere near the "80% after 5 years" capacity promise (try 65% after 4 years), and the 2016 Lizard battery dropped to 90% SOH today after only 10,000 miles and 22 months. My Model S battery has lost 0.4% capacity in 2 years, 4 months and 26,000 miles. Now, which one is the scam? :roll:

 

[lorenfb]

Such a benevolent CEO is Elon to society, but with little regard for scamming shareholders, bondholders, and M3 reservation holders, right?

Your comment infers that Elon has ill intents

No, just that he has a huge ego and couldn't careless where and how funding can be obtained to maintain his grandiose image/goals.

I could have my Model 3 by the end of January if I would configure today, so how have I been scammed?

When you and most have been led to believe that a reservation holder will receive delivery of a M3 for less than $40K - $50K in 2018.

Their original 2012 battery came nowhere near the "80% after 5 years" capacity promise (try 65% after 4 years), and the 2016 Lizard battery dropped to 90% SOH today after only 10,000 miles and 22 months. My Model S battery has lost 0.4% capacity in 2 years, 4 months and 26,000 miles. Now, which one is the scam?

1. And you easily paid 2X what most Leaf owners paid, e.g. as it relates to overall cost per mile.
2. Sorry you didn't correlate your experience with consumer Li ion battery powered devices, e.g. laptops, as it relates
to battery degradation when purchasing the Leaf. Furthermore, it's really unknown how much actual battery capacity is masked
by the Tesla BMS and where the degradation "knee" occurs for the Tesla battery.
3. Surely you haven't forgotten to mention your overall reliability and value of a Tesla when the warranty expires,
e.g. failed drive units, the "laptop screen" in the center console. Your 26K miles are hardly representation of a mileage that would
infer a reliable vehicle compared to my Leaf at 60K with NO problems.

 

[lorenfb]

For those with reservations that desire delivery on a M3 before 2019 - 2020, i.e. assuming Tesla is
still in business, and get the rebate should look here:

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_od....TRS0&_nkw=tesla+model+3+reservation&_sacat=0

 

[EVDRIVER]

For those with reservations that desire delivery on a M3 before 2019 - 2020, i.e. assuming Tesla is
still in business, and get the rebate should look here:

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_od....TRS0&_nkw=tesla+model+3+reservation&_sacat=0

Mine came up to order in Dec to order. Those that think we should all chip in and buy you the Model 3 you secretly desire just Paypal lorenb a few bucks. You can take a look yourself and see it's real and there is 20Kwh of hidden capacity Tesla is secretly hiding and you can watch things fall apart and schedule hundreds of service appointments. You can even challenge the accuracy of your VIN with the DMV. Think of all the foil you can save in 2018! .