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Happy New Year to all and congrats Randy and Tony.
Looking forward to your reviews.
Still wondering where my 3 is (config done Nov 23).


This BMW guy seems to like it: https://www.bmwcca.org/roundel/professional-driver-closed-course
 
While charging at the Dedham MA service center, I saw my first two Model 3s. One was employee owned and the other was being prepped for a customer delivery. They really do look nice.

Until I get a test drive, I'm still unconvinced on the aesthetics of the dashboard. However, the lack of a heated steering wheel is really driving me away from the 3. We've had below 0°F temps here the last week and in my LEAF and S I've been quite comfortable driving. It really makes winter driving much nicer.

Of course, leaving work one day I had the LEAF preheating on wall power as I left the office. I ran into someone in the hall and spent an extra 10 minutes talking to them. I got to the LEAF and forgot to turn off the steering wheel heater, so it cycled off and wouldn't come back on for most of the ride home. :(
 
jlv said:
...
Of course, leaving work one day I had the LEAF preheating on wall power as I left the office. I ran into someone in the hall and spent an extra 10 minutes talking to them. I got to the LEAF and forgot to turn off the steering wheel heater, so it cycled off and wouldn't come back on for most of the ride home. :(
This may have been mentioned but the Tesla are preheating the battery now off the grid when you precondition.
ZiesT2A.jpg
 
I loved this piece by a professional driver.

https://www.bmwcca.org/roundel/professional-driver-closed-course

An excerpt:
The most challenging part of the day was a drive-by shot where I had to do a pass at speed in the middle of a mountain curve a few inches between photographers. This is routine on a race track, but the stakes are higher with an irreplaceable car and human beings where apex curbing or autocross cones normally reside. Despite my lack of seat time in the car, it did what I asked with ease; it was communicative, composed, and surprisingly neutral, despite my not being able to figure out how to defeat the stability control. The steering, brakes, and balance were all on par with my expectations of a sport sedan—think E46 M3—but I’d better stop before I get too journalistic. I thoroughly enjoyed it—and no humans, cars, or cameras were injured!
We wrapped the day with sunset static shots at the base of the Rocky Mountains, their pyramid shadows protruding steadily to the eastern horizon. The silence of the moment was piercing, unbroken by the normal ticking of petrol-engine components cooling after a spirited drive. As I stood there—minding my reflection—it was clear that I was staring at the future. This car is a game-changer; it will be relatively attainable compared to its predecessors, and it was even able to satisfy the driving bias of an old-school BMW-lover like me. I really didn’t want to like it, but I found little to complain about.
I was grateful to have the opportunity to participate in the film and contribute to its subject’s noble cause, but I couldn’t help contemplating that something greater was occurring in that fading sunlight. It was an intersection of the past and the future, one where an old-school driving enthusiast like me could experience what is clearly the future—and not have to relinquish the experience that I hold dear.—Alex McCulloch

The whole thing is a very interesting read about professional drivers and their job.
 
Jalopnik model 3 road test, generally positive, begs the question.

Do you want to drive a smartphone on wheels?

The Tesla Model 3 Makes The Future Feel Normal

...one of the first independent, non-Tesla supervised or Tesla-sourced Model 3 tests you’ll read anywhere. And while we scored a few hours with the car, and a fuller long-term review and road trip test are hopefully coming soon, it doesn’t take long to figure out what this car’s all about. The Tesla Model 3 is cohesive in design and composed on the road—but it’s also the closest anyone has come to making a smartphone on wheels...

As soon as I climbed behind the wheel, I felt strange looking across a flat piece of wood rather than a set of gauges. The information screen in the center of the car isn’t distracting, but it’s not easy to see, either.

Personally, I find the elimination of distractions liberating. In fact the Model 3’s exceptional visibility in every direction would make for a uniquely immersive driving experience, if the driving experience itself weren’t so distinctively unremarkable....

Driving this car is easy and painless. An old person who’d been driving for decades or a freshly permitted 15 year old could get the hang of the pedals and wheel in a few short minutes.

The extremely old-school among us will look at the screen-based control system as novelty. But someone who was practically raised on smartphones would probably have the Model 3’s whole control system mastered before the first time they backed out of the driveway. For those of us who grew up with this technology—and I count myself among that cohort even as I wrench on an old Nissan Z and an International Scout—operating this car is second nature. A lot has been said of making cars into “smartphones on wheels,” and the Model 3 really comes close...
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3-makes-the-future-feel-normal-1821684820
 
edatoakrun said:
Jalopnik model 3 road test, generally positive, begs the question.

Do you want to drive a smartphone on wheels?
You could ask the same of any car with a screen.

A somewhat, slightly related question is whether people will adopt full auto-pilot in the near (?) future
For me the answer is YES !! And of course it has little to do with a Model 3 today other than Elon's promise to upgrade the AP HW for free if needed to Level 4 AP in the future.
 
SageBrush said:
edatoakrun said:
Jalopnik model 3 road test, generally positive, begs the question.

Do you want to drive a smartphone on wheels?
You could ask the same of any car with a screen.

A somewhat, slightly related question is whether people will adopt full auto-pilot in the near (?) future
For me the answer is YES !! And of course it has little to do with a Model 3 today other than Elon's promise to upgrade the AP HW for free if needed to Level 4 AP in the future.
Re the bold, for me the answer is no. Touch screens are fine, until you have to do something else that requires your full attention, like driving, and then they're simply dangerous as any number of studies have shown. Once we get effective and reliable L4 autonomy it won't matter, but until then, no touchscreens for any control I need to use while driving the car. I have to spend enough time trying to stay alive while walking or riding my bike by avoiding all the people looking at their phones instead of paying attention to the road and their surroundings while driving - I'm not going to become one of them.
 
Quite a few problems showing up with the model 3, most seem related to complicated operations and unique service requirements.

Sounds like you really don't want your 12 V battery to die (edited for length) in a model 3:

Situation: 3rd night, arrived hotel 10:45 pm with 98 miles of range. No destination charger. Dangerously cold (-15F). Started pre-heat from the App at 6:45 am. Went to get into car at 7 (to meet some people waiting at the Supercharge there... New Years Day, -15F, they must have wanted to see the car). Car opened, but would not engage. 12V Battery Issues. System stated that I needed service and not to drive the car (sorry, no screen shots, but I was working to solve and it was *#$%@ cold).

1) I called Tesla Customer Care at 7:10 am. Got someone right away... in fact, he has stayed with me thru the whole situation...

4) I grabbed my suitcases out of the trunk, knowing that if the car closed, I would not be able to get back in.
5) Car shut down (no screen), doors locked - I guess this was a dying wish of the car to protect itself.

...Fast forward 8 hours, still no tow. I sent a tweet to Elon and Jon

8) Towing company came, opened Front Trunk (see Trevor's video of how/where), and the we removed plastic parts to get to battery to try to power it up (and put in Transportation Mode). Now 6:30 pm, 11 1/2 hours in.

* See 2nd picture.

9) Impossible to put in Transport mode...

12) They found another towing company... in Minneapolis (4 hours away), to come the next day...
.
15) 11:30 am today, MN Towing company arrives and used Go Jacks and Lift Dollies (I asked) to get the car on the flatbed - if you don't know, you CANNOT tow this car in a conventional manner...

19) They have started diagnotics, but believe they know the problem.

* The 5th picture is just eye-candy of the car parked. Isn't she beautiful???...
https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/tesla-support-w-battery-issue.5560/#post-64082

And just closing the door may cause problems, and may even be hazardous...

https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer/status/948255647539138560
 
Tesla falls far short on Model 3 deliveries, pushes back production targets
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/03/tesla-q4-2017-production-and-delivery-numbers.html

In 2017, the company had said it planned to reach a production rate of 5,000 cars per week for the Model 3, but later revised back that target to the end of the first quarter. Now, Tesla expects to reach the target by the end of the second quarter.

Tesla said it made "major progress" toward addressing the "production bottlenecks" the company has blamed for falling so far short of its Model 3 targets.

The company said that in the last few days of the quarter it reached a production rate that "extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week." CEO Elon Musk had previously said he expected weekly Model 3 production to be "in the thousands" by the end of 2017.
...
Tesla said it delivered 29,870 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2017, including 1,550 of its anticipated Model 3 sedan.
...
In addition to those deliveries, Tesla said there were 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles in transit to customers at the end of the quarter, which Tesla will count as deliveries in Q1 2018.

Tesla said it produced 24,565 vehicles total during the quarter, of which 2,425 were Model 3 cars.
 
SageBrush said:
Tesla upped their VIN registrations to 3500 a week this week. Too early I think to say with confidence that we now have a 3500/week production rate but it may be so. We'll know for sure if they keep up this registration rate for another couple of weeks, or Elon confirms it in the upcoming finance call.

Really? Data please.
 
mtndrew1 said:
I’d bet a dollar the company gets >2,500 Model 3s into customer hands in calendar 2017. We should know the exact numbers within the next two weeks when they release Q4 numbers.

Wasn't a good bet, was it?
 
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
TonyWilliams said:
I got my VIN today (serial #2292), and the paperwork. The check is sitting on my desk.

The car should arrive in San Diego on Friday or Saturday (Dec 22-23, 2017).

So based on that VIN and your actual receipt of a M3 before year-end, Tesla will
have delivered in excess of 2292 M3s for 2017, right? Then this should be reported
by Tesla in a few weeks during their year-end report.
I would not necessarily assume that. They don't appear to be delivering them in sequential order (for reasons only known to Tesla, but I suspect it's as simple as a customer specialist scanning down a spreadsheet looking for a vehicle that matches the color/wheels of the one they are looking for and arbitrarily picking one), but I am expecting something in the neighborhood of 2000 anyway.

So, tracking of the Mickey Mouse assignment of VINs didn't really provide any real insight into the
actual 2017 M3 deliveries.
 
cwerdna said:
Tesla falls far short on Model 3 deliveries, pushes back production targets
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/03/tesla-q4-2017-production-and-delivery-numbers.html

In 2017, the company had said it planned to reach a production rate of 5,000 cars per week for the Model 3, but later revised back that target to the end of the first quarter. Now, Tesla expects to reach the target by the end of the second quarter.

Tesla said it made "major progress" toward addressing the "production bottlenecks" the company has blamed for falling so far short of its Model 3 targets.

The company said that in the last few days of the quarter it reached a production rate that "extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week." CEO Elon Musk had previously said he expected weekly Model 3 production to be "in the thousands" by the end of 2017.
...
Tesla said it delivered 29,870 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2017, including 1,550 of its anticipated Model 3 sedan.
...
In addition to those deliveries, Tesla said there were 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles in transit to customers at the end of the quarter, which Tesla will count as deliveries in Q1 2018.

Tesla said it produced 24,565 vehicles total during the quarter, of which 2,425 were Model 3 cars.

I normally defend Tesla from a market standpoint, and have recently said it's still a no-brainer. Starting to feel like that may not be the case. Tesla's only real moats are "market leadership", styling, and the charging network. If they don't get more cars on the road soon they could lose all of those things. I would worry about major competition from VW. I think a lot of people who are looking at a base Model 3 would also be interested in an eGolf. Right now the comparison isn't close, but a year from now it could be. If VW were to announce a 2019 eGolf with similar range and power as the Model 3 I bet a lot of people would withdraw their reservations.
 
To me the more interesting question is whether the 1700 or so they have stamped out to date have been reliable, or whatever issues they have encountered have been readily correctable so they aren't replicated in subsequent production. I think investors and customers have been patient with the expectation the production rate will continue to climb. The one thing they can't afford is to build large numbers of cars that have issues.
 
webb14leafs said:
... If VW were to announce a 2019 eGolf with similar range and power as the Model 3 I bet a lot of people would withdraw their reservations.
I had the privilege of meeting both the general manager and service manager from a BMW dealership at a cocktail party the other night. After conversing with them for a bit I'm inclined to think Tesla has a full 10 year lead in any electrification initiatives BMW can mount. It will be extremely challenging for them to swim upstream against the level of intellect they have in their customer-facing organization.
 
[quote

I normally defend Tesla from a market standpoint, and have recently said it's still a no-brainer. Starting to feel like that may not be the case. Tesla's only real moats are "market leadership", styling, and the charging network. If they don't get more cars on the road soon they could lose all of those things. I would worry about major competition from VW. I think a lot of people who are looking at a base Model 3 would also be interested in an eGolf. Right now the comparison isn't close, but a year from now it could be. If VW were to announce a 2019 eGolf with similar range and power as the Model 3 I bet a lot of people would withdraw their reservations.[/quote]

Tesla won't loose any of that even with a slow rollout or even a company restructuring and I don't see new egolf being much threat to any of the EV maker future offerings. The moat Tesla has is more of an ocean at this point even if the company needs to be sold off.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
webb14leafs said:
... If VW were to announce a 2019 eGolf with similar range and power as the Model 3 I bet a lot of people would withdraw their reservations.
I had the privilege of meeting both the general manager and service manager from a BMW dealership at a cocktail party the other night. After conversing with them for a bit I'm inclined to think Tesla has a full 10 year lead in any electrification initiatives BMW can mount. It will be extremely challenging for them to swim upstream against the level of intellect they have in their customer-facing organization.

That's promising, considering I see the BMW 3-series as most direct competitor to the Model 3. The 10 year number is pretty surprising, since there are several companies that are only a year or two away from releasing cars that are on par (range and power) with the T3. You could argue the GM is already there from a technical standpoint, but their total ignorance and ineptitude regarding customer satisfaction keeps them from competing.
 
EVDRIVER said:
I normally defend Tesla from a market standpoint, and have recently said it's still a no-brainer. Starting to feel like that may not be the case. Tesla's only real moats are "market leadership", styling, and the charging network. If they don't get more cars on the road soon they could lose all of those things. I would worry about major competition from VW. I think a lot of people who are looking at a base Model 3 would also be interested in an eGolf. Right now the comparison isn't close, but a year from now it could be. If VW were to announce a 2019 eGolf with similar range and power as the Model 3 I bet a lot of people would withdraw their reservations.

Tesla won't loose any of that even with a slow rollout or even a company restructuring and I don't see new egolf being much threat to any of the EV maker future offerings. The moat Tesla has is more of an ocean at this point even if the company needs to be sold off.

You might not understand the average Model 3 subscription holder. They are not the same as the Model S owner. Apple and VW are serious cross-over brands. An electric Jetta would ruin Musk's day.
 
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