lpickup said:lorenfb said:So now you need to pick other variables to find some correlation, right?
No, I think I've been fairly consistent in pointing out that even though the assignment of VINs does not appear to be sequential (some would say random, I suspect there is at least some method to the assignment order), that at least the number of sightings does tell us something. That's exactly what this is saying without changing variables at all.
So what, who cares! The bottom line is that all M3 deliveries (<< 2K) to date have been for vehicles with options that result
in a sale which yields $50K+. Thus, as yet and most likely for all of 2018, no M3 delivery will be considered as the arrival of
a "mass market BEV", i.e. just a basically lower cost MS with about the same gross profit percentage which yields an increase
in non-GAAP loss per vehicle (Tesla continues to lose money thru 2018). Subsequently, when Tesla no longer receives
significant M3 orders which yield a $50K+ sale or MS sales decline (switch to M3 - Osborne Effect), the net effect is that Tesla
will lose even more money. It's highly questionable whether Tesla can achieve the necessary gross profit per vehicle times
the number of M3's sold before 2020 at $35K to be a viable entity, i.e. given the near term production cost reduction of EV batteries.