Where are the 2018's?

[Clutch303]

Larry H. Miller on 104th in the Denver Metro area has an SV and S listed in the inventory.

I took a drive out there today to take a look (Dealerships are closed on Sunday in Colorado) and found neither in the parking lot.

Whether they were in the shop being prepped or only listed in inventory I cannot say, but I am sure they were not on the lot.

added 2/5
The same dealership noticed I had been on their website and contacted me today. I asked if they have a LEAF available for a test drive although I am already working with someone at a closer dealership.

She said one would not be available for a test drive until March!

 

[joeriv]

Just did a search around Fairfield County CT and found 11 within 100 mile radius - no S, only SV and SL.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I remember all of this happening with the Bolt. Because of pre-orders, it was almost two months before the first Bolts that showed up in inventory were actually at the dealership, for sale.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I remember all of this happening with the Bolt. Because of pre-orders, it was almost two months before the Bolts that showed up in inventory were actually at the dealership, for sale.

I am expecting 1-5 days depending on how far the dealership is from TN

 

[SageBrush]

I remember all of this happening with the Bolt. Because of pre-orders, it was almost two months before the Bolts that showed up in inventory were actually at the dealership, for sale.

It happened with the Prius Prime also. IIRC the cars show up in about a week.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I remember all of this happening with the Bolt. Because of pre-orders, it was almost two months before the Bolts that showed up in inventory were actually at the dealership, for sale.

I am expecting 1-5 days depending on how far the dealership is from TN

I should have written " before the first Bolts that showed up..." I'll fix it.

 

[edatoakrun]

Looks like about a dozen have now been delivered to SO CA dealers.

Anyone figured out an easy way to track sales numbers from these inventory numbers?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Looks like about a dozen have now been delivered to SO CA dealers.

Anyone figured out an easy way to track sales numbers from these inventory numbers?

Doubtful any have actually been delivered. Dealers usually get the VINs as soon as they are shipped. If they showed up at dealer today, expect the actual car to lag that by 3-7 days.

 

[tuningin]

Does ayone know how to decipher the window sticker date? All cars that I have randomly looked at seem to have something similar to 20180122....... I'm wondering if that means built on Jan 22, 2018 If that were the case, there is a chance that these cars could be arriving in the west coast, as that has been two weeks. Also, the incorrect car ordered for me is now slated to arrive on 2/7, so the timeline does line up as well.

No cars seem to have a 2017 or a number lower than 0122. Even though they announced that production started the first week of Dec, did they in fact not start production until Jan 22?

 

[edatoakrun]

Looks like about a dozen have now been delivered to SO CA dealers.

Anyone figured out an easy way to track sales numbers from these inventory numbers?

Doubtful any have actually been delivered...

Easy enough to check, if anyone wants to.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Does ayone know how to decipher the window sticker date? All cars that I have randomly looked at seem to have something similar to 20180122....... I'm wondering if that means built on Jan 22, 2018 If that were the case, there is a chance that these cars could be arriving in the west coast, as that has been two weeks. Also, the incorrect car ordered for me is now slated to arrive on 2/7, so the timeline does line up as well.

No cars seem to have a 2017 or a number lower than 0122. Even though they announced that production started the first week of Dec, did they in fact not start production until Jan 22?

Anything is possible although I don't consider it that likely. Despite consignments hitting the West Coast this morning, the supply is still just a trickle and likely not one delivered a customer.

My dealer who I trust immensely says nothing on the ground in WA before the 12th and I believe him over anyone or any thing else but the trend looks like WA will be listed as having VINs in the next 1-3 days.

 

[tuningin]

Does ayone know how to decipher the window sticker date? All cars that I have randomly looked at seem to have something similar to 20180122....... I'm wondering if that means built on Jan 22, 2018 If that were the case, there is a chance that these cars could be arriving in the west coast, as that has been two weeks. Also, the incorrect car ordered for me is now slated to arrive on 2/7, so the timeline does line up as well.

No cars seem to have a 2017 or a number lower than 0122. Even though they announced that production started the first week of Dec, did they in fact not start production until Jan 22?

Anything is possible although I don't consider it that likely. Despite consignments hitting the West Coast this morning, the supply is still just a trickle and likely not one delivered a customer.

My dealer who I trust immensely says nothing on the ground in WA before the 12th and I believe him over anyone or any thing else but the trend looks like WA will be listed as having VINs in the next 1-3 days.

Another dealer locally that I queried a month ago about availability emailed me today that he has a car in and is pushing for me to come in and test drive today. So Socal has cars. Per his email "I want to let you know they Just start delivery Leaf today, So far I got one only S model blue color. and I have SL and SV coming in next few days. I know you looking for SL two tone. But two tone they going to deliver in next month. AS soon as I got SL i will let you know in next few days so you can come and drive it."

 

[Jedlacks]

At this rate the information on the fabled 2019 will have traction before the 2018 is widely available. Maybe they have only a limited interest in selling the 2018 model. But if that is the case, why go through all this expense?

 

[tuningin]

Based on the very recent issue to date, I wouldn’t make plans based on a timely and organized launch.

Likely the higher range model will be an additional model at an additional price. Hard to say what they will charge for 50% more battery, but it won’t be cheap. We could be talking Model 3 prices. The Leaf is a great car at $30k base/$35k with Options, but once we are looking at $35k base price/$40k with options, it’s interior quality becomes an issue.

 

[LeftieBiker]

The Leaf is a great car at $30k base/$35k with Options, but once we are looking at $35k base price/$40k with options, it’s interior quality becomes an issue.

I think that as long as the car is comfortable and doesn't look Cheap inside <COUGHboltCOUGH> a $40k price isn't a barrier.

 

[tuningin]

The Leaf is a great car at $30k base/$35k with Options, but once we are looking at $35k base price/$40k with options, it’s interior quality becomes an issue.

I think that as long as the car is comfortable and doesn't look Cheap inside <COUGHboltCOUGH> a $40k price isn't a barrier.

True, but the Leaf does look and feel cheap inside. Not as bad as the Bolt, for sure. It's acceptable at its current price and factoring that the average EV costs more than its ICE counterpart.

I sat inside a Model 3 at the Tesla showroom over the weekend. I did the Nissan Drive Experience as well so I know what they are offering. The Model 3 car had the premium interior and at $40k the Leaf's interior cannot compete. I was truly wowed by what Tesla is offering. The extra $5k over a 2018 SV, I'd rather not spend, thus I'd go with the Leaf. I don't need the extra range either. The interior is adequate. But if they were the same price, the Leaf would get soundly beaten.

Here's the kicker. The Leaf's residual value at 3 years is 32%. A Model S's residual value is at 68%. We don't know what the Model 3's residual value will be, but if it's anywhere near the Model S, even without tax credits, a Model 3 lease (when they offer it) could be the lower than a Leaf at the same MSRP. That's a lot of headwind for the long range Leaf.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I don't think the markets overlap as much as people think. Having similar prices doesn't mean that similar people are strongly attracted to one or the other. The Leaf is more like a Corolla or Civic, and attracts people who want value and comfort, with excellent reliability and adequate performance. The M3 is more like a BMW M3, in that people want some luxury mixed with high performance, with the other factors being of less importance. What confuses matters is that the cars - at the lower end, anyway - are similarly priced, and they are both the same "kind" of car - compact EVs. There are also enough people who would consider either a base M3 or a Leaf SV to add some surface validity to the idea that the cars are directly competing with each other, even though IMO they are not.

When it's easy to test drive both cars, things will sort themselves out: people who like comfortable cars with comfortable rides will choose the Leaf, while those who want great handling and acceleration in their EV will choose the M3. Or maybe the Bolt.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

First confirmed delivery yesterday in Dallas Ft. Worth. Customer came in and did a test drive and bought the test vehicle!

 

[tuningin]

First confirmed delivery yesterday in Dallas Ft. Worth. Customer came in and did a test drive and bought the test vehicle!

I still think that this is nonsense since there are a supposed 13,000 reservations yet they have been shipping cars to dealers without reservations and for general sale first.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

First confirmed delivery yesterday in Dallas Ft. Worth. Customer came in and did a test drive and bought the test vehicle!

I still think that this is nonsense since there are a supposed 13,000 reservations yet they have been shipping cars to dealers without reservations and for general sale first.

I think there are few cars currently on the lot for sale although someone in S. Cal mentioned his dealer invited him to test drive a car to buy so who knows?

What surprises me is the lack of real spotting of cars up to now. Now how a demo got sold is a question and wondering how many miles were on it? I hope for the buyer's sake it wasn't one of the cars used in the charge to home demo's where the pack got cycled SEVERAL times while stationary making the odometer reading inaccurate for determining use.