135 mile range LEAF? Where did this come from?

[DaveinOlyWA]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdBEb9OZ-kg

Skip to the 7:00 mark.

I agree the article is total speculation. At the same time I think we're witnessing the "Tesla effect".

Funny you'd mention the Tesla affect & pair it with the 7:00 mark talking about Nissan's leadership with EV's ??

2014 Sales: Feb March
Nissan Leaf 1425 1252
Tesla Model S 1400 1300

Take the last 2 months sales, and Tesla has sold more than Nissan ... tho the're pretty close, month to month. Then, if you disregard that fact, and you simply compare the 2 car's features ... I duno ... sure the tesla costs a bunch more ... but you get a bunch more too. Leadership? Looking at battery temp management, degradation, range, handling, comfort, responsiveness to owners, range, styling ... hmm ... let me think about this leadership thing ...

As to where the OP got the 135 mile range - it came from a good shake on the magic 8 ball.

.

willing to bet the LEAF numbers will go up way before Tesla's does

 

[Stoaty]

read my post again. not saying there is no market for longer range (especially since I am in that market!) just saying it wont be the biggest segment of the market by a long shot is all

Read my post again. Note the "degradation included". I was pretty happy with the initial range of the Leaf, but losing about 18% in less than 3 years--not what was promised, not happy with the rapid capacity loss.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

read my post again. not saying there is no market for longer range (especially since I am in that market!) just saying it wont be the biggest segment of the market by a long shot is all

Read my post again. Note the "degradation included". I was pretty happy with the initial range of the Leaf, but losing about 18% in less than 3 years--not what was promised, not happy with the rapid capacity loss.

right and as mentioned, degradation is the reason I want longer range. all these statements really dont consider that the average person's driving needs amount to less than 40 miles a day... just saying

 

[nosuchthing]

all these statements really dont consider that the average person's driving needs amount to less than 40 miles a day...

I beg to differ. It all depends on where you live, i.e. how far from the nearest big city, and if your (not yours personally) life revolves around going to town for groceries, restaurants, movies, etc. and not much else.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this 40-mile b.s., particularly in Ca. We're live the freeway life here, like it or not. Personally I bought into that 100-mile myth, and I feel like a sucker now, driving my '92 accord 84 miles a day, 5 days a week with 480,000 miles on that thing. It was supposed to be my Leaf; now it's my wife's car. Imagine she said no to driving it. Not to mention the fact she hates the range loss, ipso facto, now she hates the car even more. And do I want to mention the resale value?

No need to. So I keep telling her not to worry, Nissan WILL DELIVER a new battery. I am an optimist. Lost a lot of money in stocks on that trait, let me tell you... :lol:

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Anyone know what percentage of EVSEs out in the wild can actually support more than 30-32A? I would think the Tesla or RAV4 folks would track this somewhere.

That would be a good thing to include as a sortable item on PlugShare. I believe the Clipper Creek CS-100 can go to 80A @ 240V, or 19kW. As packs improve, we'll need faster public stations.

 

[GRA]

all these statements really dont consider that the average person's driving needs amount to less than 40 miles a day...

I beg to differ. It all depends on where you live, i.e. how far from the nearest big city, and if your (not yours personally) life revolves around going to town for groceries, restaurants, movies, etc. and not much else.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this 40-mile b.s., particularly in Ca. We're live the freeway life here, like it or not. Personally I bought into that 100-mile myth, and I feel like a sucker now, driving my '92 accord 84 miles a day, 5 days a week with 480,000 miles on that thing. It was supposed to be my Leaf; now it's my wife's car. Imagine she said no to driving it. Not to mention the fact she hates the range loss, ipso facto, now she hates the car even more. And do I want to mention the resale value?

No need to. So I keep telling her not to worry, Nissan WILL DELIVER a new battery. I am an optimist. Lost a lot of money in stocks on that trait, let me tell you... :lol:

To my way of thinking, 150 miles EPA equates to a realistic 100 miles at freeway speeds with a reasonable (20%) reserve and use of HVAC in moderate cold (around freezing), when new. It also equates to 50-70 miles (depending on where you live and your driving habits), of year-round range with reserve guaranteed in worst-case conditions at EoL without freezing or broiling, which is what's critical for commuting. And it needs to do that for at least 10 years, for mainstream buyers to feel like it's value for money.

Ideally, you want a minimum of 2 days of normal driving range stored, for those days when you have an emergency run or the power goes out - for longer outages, you at least have time to make other arrangements. I consider 150 miles EPA to be about the minimum for this, with 200 miles EPA (say 70-90 guaranteed) being better. Better insulation and/or more efficient heater/defroster systems in sub-zero temps, or else fuel-fired auxiliary heaters, are critical to narrowing the variation of driving range due to temperature effects.

 

[DanCar]

I beg to differ.

Don't differ on statistics gathered. They are just that: statistics. Anyways people don't want a car for just during the week, they want one that works on the weekends also for longer trips.

 

[Stoaty]

right and as mentioned, degradation is the reason I want longer range. all these statements really dont consider that the average person's driving needs amount to less than 40 miles a day... just saying

Yes, but that doesn't tell you what the standard deviation is.

Example:

Day 1 - 20 miles
Day 2 - 40 miles
Day 3 - 40 miles
Day 4 - 40 miles
Day 5 - 40 miles
Day 6 - 40 miles
Day 7 - 70 miles

Same driving pattern for 4 weeks in a row.

Average - 40 miles per day
Standard deviation - 13.8 miles

To cover 95% of trips you would need average plus 2 standard deviations = 67.6 mile capacity (although in this particular case you won't be able to make the the 70 mile trip without hitting Turtle if you don't slow down a bit)

So yes, 40 miles will cover your average trip, but it won't cover 95% of your trips, which is a reasonable expectation for a BEV. To put it another way, 70/280 = 25% of your miles won't be covered even with a range of 2 standard deviations above the mean. This example shows how easy it is to lie with statistics (average only) without including standard deviation.

 

[evnow]

So yes, 40 miles will cover your average trip, but it won't cover 95% of your trips, which is a reasonable expectation for a BEV. To put it another way, 70/280 = 25% of your miles won't be covered even with a range of 2 standard deviations above the mean. This example shows how easy it is to lie with statistics (average only) without including standard deviation.

95% coverage means you need another vehicle for some 17 days a year - which is very reasonable.

Personally a 100 mile range in winter is what I "need" - so that it covers my trips to the airport and northern suburbs. In other words, I want Leaf's summer range in winter as well. 150 EPA range would be plenty for this.

 

[EvansvilleLeaf]

I'm in that mythical demographic. A 150 mile Leaf range would be worth, literally, nothing at all to me. Even 250. I do under 40 miles a day about 360/365. The other 5 are long distance trips well beyond even Tesla 85 range, and would require charging stations at highway motels even if a 600+ mile EV is ever developed in my lifetime. I have lived in bigger cities in the past and still never needed this 80+ mile commute range that seems so popular here (maybe "Leaf central" California is different, but surely somebody lives in the 30 mile radius surrounding employers?) . Makes me wonder why used cars don't average 30000 miles a year, as most of the vocal participants here seem to imply that's normal and expected. Strangely I have generally seen higher mileage used cars OUTside major metropolitan areas, as employers are more thinly spread and entertainment options are generally not so close together. I certainly concur that promotional hype and reality differed, but I'm wondering what percentage of Leaf owners, the vast majority of whom are not here and not subject to the typical "misery shares, contentment is silent" messageboard tropes, were reliant on the upper edge of range expectations. It's obviously not zero, but with a motoring enthusiast press that hates mainstream EVs with a passion and a regular media hungry for bad news on anything even vaguely greenwashed, you'd think a large general discontent among owners well into 5 digits would be splashed across Car and Driver and Fox News ad infinitum.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Well put!

I'm 10 miles from work, and we have L2 there. I can find a destination charge anywhere within my range radius that I'm likely to go. But I would still go for more range capacity if it becomes affordably available.

I've only met one Leafer who was unhappy, and his commute pushed the edge in summer, by winter he was done in and ready to trade out. That's learning the hard way.

 

[uwskier20]

I've only met one Leafer who was unhappy

I think I speak for a lot of LEAFers when I say that I am very happy with the car, and that Nissan had the courage to develop and market it, but I have since become unhappy with the fact that the battery has degraded much faster than expected, and that no replacement option seems to be forthcoming. Or maybe there is, but Nissan refuses to be candid about it (i.e., we've heard nothing from them in nearly 12 months!!). Reasonable degradation and battery replacement were two things that were promised to us by Nissan at the 2010 test drive many of us did, and were myths that continued to be propagated to people by salespeople at many dealerships.

Early on, I was one of those who was able to get 95% of trips done in the LEAF, including our 50-mile round-trip commute. Now, with about 16% of capacity gone, we have to plug in at work to make the trip comfortably. Thank goodness our employer allows us to trickle at 110V. If this were suddenly taken away, there'd be big problems. Many of the long distance trips we used to do are no longer practical due to the distance between DCFC stations. So, I'd say the LEAF has gone from covering about 95% of miles to maybe 80%. Still not bad, but I was honestly hoping to go in the other direction as I want gas out of my life to the greatest extent possible.

 

[klapauzius]

I think I speak for a lot of LEAFers when I say that I am very happy with the car, and that Nissan had the courage to develop and market it, but I have since become unhappy with the fact that the battery has degraded much faster than expected, and that no replacement option seems to be forthcoming. Or maybe there is, but Nissan refuses to be candid about it (i.e., we've heard nothing from them in nearly 12 months!!). Reasonable degradation and battery replacement were two things that were promised to us by Nissan at the 2010 test drive many of us did, and were myths that continued to be propagated to people by salespeople at many dealerships.

Early on, I was one of those who was able to get 95% of trips done in the LEAF, including our 50-mile round-trip commute. Now, with about 16% of capacity gone, we have to plug in at work to make the trip comfortably. Thank goodness our employer allows us to trickle at 110V. If this were suddenly taken away, there'd be big problems. Many of the long distance trips we used to do are no longer practical due to the distance between DCFC stations. So, I'd say the LEAF has gone from covering about 95% of miles to maybe 80%. Still not bad, but I was honestly hoping to go in the other direction as I want gas out of my life to the greatest extent possible.

+1. That nicely summarizes the current problem, even for us in the most optimal climate imaginable for EVs.

My worst fear is that Nissan will abandon the earlier adopters by
a) NOT providing a replacement battery for sale, leaving us at the mercy of yet-nonexistent aftermarket suppliers, or endless lawsuits

b) goes without saying, that they probably never ever intend to over an improved battery (rangewise) that will be compatible with "outdated" models...

 

[TRONZ]

Look at the full context of 2014/2015. The i3 and e-Golf will be arriving on American shores very soon. Both are being marketed as "100 mile" EV's. Nissan is simply practicing The Art of War. The enemy has now moved. Nissan will counter move. The competition offers 100 miles. Nissan offers 150 miles. Nissan has sat in meditation for the past two years because they could. With the arrival of the Germans, I suspect the time of meditation is over.

If I am right, Nissan will add range options after VW commits on final trim levels and prices for the U.S e-Golf.

 

[evnow]

With the arrival of the Germans, I suspect the time of meditation is over.

Nissan doesn't care about "Germans". They can't come anywhere near Leaf's prices.

Nissan would be worried about Model E, though.

 

[EVDRIVER]

With the arrival of the Germans, I suspect the time of meditation is over.

Nissan doesn't care about "Germans". They can't come anywhere near Leaf's prices.

Nissan would be worried about Model E, though.

We shall see how that price pans out.

 

[TRONZ]

With the arrival of the Germans, I suspect the time of meditation is over.

Nissan doesn't care about "Germans". They can't come anywhere near Leaf's prices.

Nissan would be worried about Model E, though.

That is my point. The 150 mile Leaf will be the price of an e-Golf. Offer more for the same price. VW has already said they intend to price e-Golf near the Leaf but likely will be more. This is perfect for Nissan. Fill that price gap with battery capacity. VW is a mass market player and not to be taken lightly. The "one step ahead" is a classic move and Nissan will use it while they can.

Model E is for the second generation 2017 Leaf.

 

[evnow]

With e-Golf the big problem will be lack of fast chargers.

BTW, e-Up got good reviews (and compared well with i3, apparently).

I should add - the biggest hindrance to selling would be dealer apathy. Leaf had that a lot early on - but now most dealers have come on-board and are actively selling Leaf. How well will the VW dealers sell e-Golf ?

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Is E-Up coming too, or just eGolf?

My local VW dealer doesn't seem too enthusiastic, but probably one in NE will carry them, maybe KIAs too now that we have an EV rebate coming.

If Nissan does roll out a higher range model to compete against them, and VWs (with no QC infrastructure) and KIAs languish, that opens the door to good deals for us.

 

[GRA]

Personally a 100 mile range in winter is what I "need" - so that it covers my trips to the airport and northern suburbs. In other words, I want Leaf's summer range in winter as well. 150 EPA range would be plenty for this.

Are you sure 150 EPA would be enough to give you 100? For a short-term lease in your climate, probably, but for a long-term purchase it seems questionable. At 70% of original capacity that 150 EPA becomes 105, and that's before any allowance for realistic freeway speeds, non-ideal weather and HVAC use, let alone a reserve.