TonyWilliams said:
I'm told that the Honda Hydrogen car will have CHAdeMO in Japan only, and the same car as a BEV in the US will have CCS-Combo 1.
Yep.
Holy cow, that's out of left field if accurate.
Okay so for calendar 2017 the QC lineups in the US are:
CHAdeMO:
Nissan Leaf (50 state, volume) 20k units
Kia Soul EV (compliance) 1.2k units
CCS:
BMW i3/i3 REx (50 state, volume) 12k units
Chevrolet Bolt EV (50 state, volume) 25k units
Ford Focus EV (compliance) 2k units
Honda Clarity BEV (50 state, volume) 25k units
Hyundai Ioniq (50 state, volume) 15k units
Kia Niro EV (Wildcard, same platform and assembly plant as Ioniq so probable it will also be CCS)
VW eGolf (compliance) 5k units
I based the deliveries on 2015 numbers, more or less. That puts us at about 64k projected CCS-capable cars (at a 75% CCS option take rate) and 20k projected CHAdeMO cars (Nissan take rate seems higher + Soul is standard equipment) delivered in the US in calendar '17 in this hypothetical situation.
If any of these numbers come even close to being accurate, the CHAdeMO first-mover advantage will be largely wiped out in the US market. If Kia's Soul moves to CCS like parent Hyundai seems to be doing, it will literally be Nissan vs. Everyone Else in this standards war.
The only variable I see is that if Nissan pulls a rabbit out of a hat and Leaf 2.0 is launched soon and is a hugely popular product (not a crazy concept given Nissan's expertise in this space). If so, it could balance the standards war in this market. I suppose Toyota could also launch a CHAdeMO BEV in the US for 2017 but that seems...unlikely.