COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

[GRA]

CBS news had a piece last night quoting a study in the Lancet on the likelihood of transmission, not wearing vs. wearing a mask: 17.4%/3.1%. I believe this is it, but haven't had time to read it all:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

 

[WetEV]

Iceland has beat the coronavirus. OK, still two people with infections in quarantine, and they need to keep the response going. Tactic used is to test widely and isolate the exposed and infected. And shutdown large gatherings. That combination of tactics works.

How? Ask the Prime Minster:

I asked her why she thought Iceland had done so much better at dealing with COVID-19 than so many other countries. “We were following the news from China very closely,” she said. “So we started our preparations long before the first case tested positive here in Iceland. And it was very clear from the beginning that this was something that should be led by experts—by scientific and medical experts.” She went on, “And the experts, they were very humble. They were saying, ‘We really don’t know everything about this virus.’ And I think one of the strengths of the process is that we just said, ‘Well, we don’t know what is going to happen next.’ ”

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus


Japan has beat the coronavirus. Wear a face mask (almost everyone) and shutdown large gatherings. Not as good, but that works.



South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, Germany, Israel, ... Lots of example of how to do it correctly. Same tactics:

1) test and isolate
2) reduce spread by wearing a mask
3) reduce superspreading events by prohibiting group events

Need to get R below 1.0. That's all it takes.


The US can do it too. All it takes is a little leadership.

 

[WetEV]

CBS news had a piece last night quoting a study in the Lancet on the likelihood of transmission, not wearing vs. wearing a mask: 17.4%/3.1%. I believe this is it, but haven't had time to read it all:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

This is a meta study, a review of past studies. The studies reviewed are looking at the chance of the mask wearer becoming infected, not at the risk of an infected person infecting others.

 

[GRA]

Thanks. I'm pretty sure CBS said the numbers referred to likelihood of transmission to others, but I could be mistaken, or they could be (What, TV journalists get the details wrong? Surely not )

 

[WetEV]

Thanks. I'm pretty sure CBS said the numbers referred to likelihood of transmission to others, but I could be mistaken, or they could be (What, TV journalists get the details wrong? Surely not )

A factor of 5 reduction in risk of transmission is probably enough to get R below 1.0... The details might be incorrect, but the overall result is the same.

Japan is a full scale experiment. Mask wearing works.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

No pix allowed so you will have to follow the link. As Summer approaches, expect to see the crisis as never before. (My account is public so you can read it)

https://www.facebook.com/DaveinOlyWA/posts/10223419949794846

 

[mwalsh]

No pix allowed so you will have to follow the link. As Summer approaches, expect to see the crisis as never before. (My account is public so you can read it)

https://www.facebook.com/DaveinOlyWA/posts/10223419949794846

Agreed - **** is going to go sideways big time.

 

[mwalsh]

Coronavirus: Sweden's Tegnell admits too many died
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52903717

One can check what I pointed to at https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=584037#p584037 about how Sweden's COVID-19 deaths per 1 million population compares to nearby countries/neighbors.

I love the Swedes (not as much as Norwegians), but they are complete idiots in this instance.

 

[GRA]

Just caught a mention of this in the news summary on the PBS Newshour, but as it's been widely cited here I think it's important to note that the bad science isn't all on one side. I'm finding lots of articles on this:

The Lancet retracts large study on hydroxychloroquine

"A first-year statistics major could tell you about major flaws in the design of the analysis," one expert said.

https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproj...racts-large-study-hydroxychloroquine-n1225091

The medical journal The Lancet on Thursday retracted a large study on the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 because of potential flaws in the research data. The study, published two weeks ago, found no benefit to the drug — and suggested its use may even increase the risk of death.

Thursday's retraction doesn't mean that the drug is helpful — or harmful — with respect to the coronavirus. Rather, the study authors were unable to confirm that the data set was accurate. . . .

"After publication of our Lancet article, several concerns were raised with respect to the veracity of the data and analyses conducted by Surgisphere Corporation," the study authors wrote in their retraction.

The study authors said they launched an independent review to confirm the findings, but said the company would not provide access to all of the data.

"Based on this development, we can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources," the authors wrote.

A statement on the Surgisphere website defended its data registry, adding the company had "clearly outlined the limitations of an observational study that cannot fully control for unobservable confounding measures."

The study itself was huge, including, it claimed, data from 96,000 COVID-19 patients from 671 hospitals on six continents. The findings suggested hydroxychloroquine did not benefit patients and was actually associated with an increased risk of dying in the hospital.

The large number of patients raised important questions among outside experts.

"The amount of patients that were included in a given country or given continent was almost more or a very high proportion of the total number reported in that geographic area, as if they were including more cases than possible," said Dr. Daniel Culver, a pulmonary and critical care expert at the Cleveland Clinic who was not involved with the research.

Culver said there were also concerns about whether the drug was even available for COVID-19 patients in some areas where it was reported to have been used.

"It's not that the analysis itself was done wrong," Culver said. "It's just they don't have the data in that database to account for what they need to account for. . . ."

 

[goldbrick]

There is still the randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial results published by the New England Journal of Medicine that shows no benefit. Not to mention the undisputed fact that the drug can have serious side effects.

My take is that the Lancet published their study without proper vetting. This happens when the rush to publish pushes aside good scientific methods. Maybe they felt the pressure to publish quickly since the bozo in the WH was spouting nonsense and they wanted to add some counter-point but in any case, it reminds me of the old adage by Mark Twain “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

 

[GRA]

^^^Twain quotes, is it? Here's a few reflecting his view of Gilded Age legislators:

"The lightning there is peculiar; it is so convincing, that when it strikes a thing it doesn't leave enough of that thing behind for you to tell whether--Well, you'd think it was something valuable, and a Congressman had been there."

"It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native American criminal class except Congress."

". . . I never can think of Judas Iscariot without losing my temper. To my mind Judas Iscariot was nothing but a low, mean, premature, Congressman."

"All Congresses and Parliaments have a kindly feeling for idiots, and a compassion for them, on account of personal experience and heredity."

And my personal favorite, for its succinctness:

"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself."

 

[Oilpan4]

Is there a hotline to report rioters, looters and anarchists like there was just for people who weren't "social distancing" and "wearing a mask"?

I made the local newspaper for local militia working with law enforcement to keep looters out of our town.

 

[LeftieBiker]

"911". You may want to write it down.

 

[cwerdna]

Long article that I've only skimmed...

How this New Jersey hospital fighting coronavirus is helping its workers deal with the trauma
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/06/how-this-nj-hospital-staff-is-fighting-covid-19-and-trauma.html

“We’ve never seen so much death,” said Dr. Tucker Woods, chief medical officer.
...
Christ Hospital is one of three for-profit New Jersey hospitals owned by Jersey City-based CarePoint Health. Christ serves a diverse, largely minority population in a city of roughly 265,500. It is designated a safety-net hospital, meaning it provides health care for individuals regardless of their insurance status or ability to pay — an already vulnerable demographic that has been disproportionately impacted by the coronavirus pandemic.

But nothing could have prepared the hospital staff for the sudden influx of sick and dying patients. As of June 1, Christ Hospital had admitted a total of 808 patients who were either diagnosed with Covid-19 or under investigation for it, 173 of whom succumbed to the disease. That day, the hospital had 31 such patients, representing 41.7% of the inpatient population. “At our peak in early April, we had 142 Covid patients,” Woods said, or 84% of all inpatients. “We’re still drinking water from a fire hose, but it’s much better than previously.
...
When the need for additional ventilators in the ICUs became critical, Duffy contacted the state’s department of health. “By end of day, they dropped off five ventilators,” she said. As the number of deaths rose, the hospital brought in refrigerated trailers to serve as temporary morgues.

Now the hospital is preparing for a new spike in cases due to the large protests over the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis and the gradual reopening of the local economy. And that should continue in the fall as the flu season gets under way.

 

[Oilpan4]

"911". You may want to write it down.

People were specifically told not to use 911 to report non mask users and social distancing violaters.
I have ever only had to call 911 for other peoples problems.

 

[WetEV]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephone_numbers_in_Russia#Special_numbers_(emergencies)

911 isn't on the list.

 

[Oilpan4]

According to Harvard, the trumpvirus may have started in Wuhan as early as last summer.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270

 

[Oilpan4]

Who says asymptomatic transmission of trumpvirus is not a concern.

https://www.axios.com/who-coronavirus-asymptomatic-patients-08d84e31-1846-44d8-8fe1-2343ff850764.html

It's the who, they have been parroting Chinese propaganda all along. Remember "no evidence person to person transmission"? I would like to agree with this, but skepticism is advised.

 

[Oilpan4]

What no one want to talk about trumpvirus anymore?
Or go on about how we should wear masks and stay in to keep people you will never know from getting sick?
I'm amazed at the level of control the media has over all of you. It's like sci-fi mind control from some evil corporation or extraterrestrial influence in a cheesy 1970s or 1980s movie.

 

[downeykp]

Ok you are accusing of of being under the media mind control. Really? Your president has driven this country into a ditch. The likes of which a democrat will have to fix. Your moron president has made us the laughing stock of the world.
How is that Make America Great Again working for you?