Detroit 3 are in serious trouble...

[DrRocket]

...with Ford's EV out, it is getting panned. Nissan will have to bring out the Infinity EV soon. We know Tesla's plan for the S and upcoming X. Nissan is showing the guts to make a serious beachhead in the EV market. They have sold more EV cars in 2011 than all others--ever (someone quoted that here on MNL).

Tesla is showing their hand in superior design, the safest car, highest mileage battery, new sleek plug that looks better than all the other "committee" designed plugs.

GM Volt is a joke, plug in Prius, is a similar joke--get a Corolla instead for better economics. Everyone else is late to the game or buying parts from others.

If Nissan and Tesla quickly capitalize on their head start, meet in the middle on pricing, they will own the market. Tesla is building their own quick charging network near highways. We Leafers will be the ones buying converters from our Chadmo's and 1772 plugs to Tesla's connector.

I do worry that the dealer told me to only quick charge the Leaf once per day. That means a 200 mile range per day and Las Vegas and San Diego are still out of the question for me. The upcoming Infinity EV better have a better range battery.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I do worry that the dealer told me to only quick charge the Leaf once per day. That means a 200 mile range per day and Las Vegas and San Diego are still out of the question for me. The upcoming Infinity EV better have a better range battery.

Is there a chance that the sales person made a mistake, and it might be ok to charge more than once per day?

 

[cwerdna]

I'm going to have to disagree. EVs are still niche vehicles. Hybrids are unfortunately also niches. I can't jump to a conclusion that based on your points, the Detroit (Big 3) are in trouble.

Have you ever looked into Tesla's financials? Have you watched http://www.bloomberg.com/video/73460184/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and seen how much money Elon Musk poured into his company as it was struggling, prior to the IPO?

Not everyone buys cars based on economics/payback/being the cheapest period. If so, we'd all be driving cars like Kia Rios or the most stripped down Nissan Versa (price has gone up a bit from the version at http://www.caranddriver.com/features/2009-nissan-versa-16-base" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; w/a newer generation). Most of us here (esp. those who actually own Leafs or are seriously considering one) would fall under the category of early adopter. Yeah yeah, I know EVs from major automakers have come before the Leaf.

Have you taken a look at US auto sales figures like http://www.autoblog.com/2011/11/01/october-2011-pillowcases-of-candy-edition/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; before? From http://investor.gm.com/sales-production/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, here were GM's figures last month: http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Media/gmcom/investor/2011/DeliveriesOct2011.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. For the month before, look at http://investor.gm.com/sales-production/docs/sales_prod/11_09/DeliveriesSeptember2011.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and see how much monstrosity class (full-sized) SUV sales rose such as the Tahoe, Suburban, Yukon, etc. (Related story for that month http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/03/autos/september_auto_sales/index.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false.

Here's Ford: http://media.ford.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=35516" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://media.ford.com/images/10031/Oct11sales.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

Nissan: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nissan-north-america-reports-18-increase-in-october-sales-133008533.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; - look at the Leaf sales

Look at Leaf sales at http://www.hybridcars.com/news/october-2011-dashboard-hybrids-have-best-sales-march-31926.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; vs. the rest of the vehicles there.

Take a look at the graphics on the left side of http://www.examiner.com/cars-in-national/top-20-best-selling-cars-of-october-2011" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://www.examiner.com/cars-in-national/best-selling-cars-of-october-2011-by-class" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; or just http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2011/11/top-10-best-selling-cars-october-2011.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; has more data.

Even if Leaf production in Smyrna were to go online tomorrow and could pump out 200K Leafs/year and there were somehow demand for that many in the US (per http://www.hybridcars.com/hybrid-clean-diesel-sales-dashboard/december-2010.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, 140.9K Priuses sold last year in the US), that's against sales of 11.6 million light vehicles last year (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/05/business/05auto.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; w/more details at http://www.autoblog.com/2011/01/04/by-the-numbers-2010-the-year-after-that-really-bad-year-editi/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false.

Then you have poll results like http://green.autoblog.com/2011/10/17/only-4-of-consumers-likely-to-be-satisfied-with-todays-electri/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://green.autoblog.com/2011/05/31/gallup-poll-shows-57-of-americans-wont-buy-an-electric-vehicle/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

There are already enough myths and junk science floating around about hybrids (that still refuses to die) as it is that just turns people away from hybrids. Most of these "issues" carryover to EVs (in those people's minds).

As a Prius enthusiast, we hear all the myths all the time (the influx of misinformed trolls has slowed down considerably though). On other message boards, I and others have a hard enough time convincing people to buy the midsized Prius (which starts at ~$23K) that has no range limit or other hybrids, as it is. You think those same people will be willing to spend more on an EV w/limited range and not knowing squat about charging, infrastructure, etc. while possessing a whole bunch of FUD?

It will be interesting to see how well (or not well) the plug-in Prius is accepted.

Also, now China has become the world's largest auto market. GM I believe has number 1 share there given stories like http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-28/gm-keeps-top-china-overseas-sales-rank.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. The numbers at http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/07/us-gm-china-idUSTRE7A612D20111107" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; might be insightful.

 

[LakeLeaf]

I do worry that the dealer told me to only quick charge the Leaf once per day. That means a 200 mile range per day and Las Vegas and San Diego are still out of the question for me. The upcoming Infinity EV better have a better range battery.

Is there a chance that the sales person made a mistake, and it might be ok to charge more than once per day?

Nissan did say that multiple quick charges over a prolonged period of time could be slightly detrimental to battery longevity. People seem to choose to reinterpret that to any quick charging at all is going to damage the battery - at least a little - and therefore it is bad to quick charge more then once in a blue moon. That is not how the issue was first presented by Nissan.

 

[TomT]

+1

I'm going to have to disagree. EVs are still niche vehicles. Hybrids are unfortunately also niches. I can't jump to a conclusion that based on your points, the Detroit (Big 3) are in trouble.

 

[TickTock]

I do worry that the dealer told me to only quick charge the Leaf once per day. That means a 200 mile range per day and Las Vegas and San Diego are still out of the question for me.

Only if you go to Vegas every day (of course they need to actually put the QC's in first).

 

[edatoakrun]

As a Prius enthusiast, we hear all the myths all the time (the influx of misinformed trolls has slowed down considerably though). On other message boards, I and others have a hard enough time convincing people to buy the midsized Prius (which starts at ~$23K) that has no range limit or other hybrids, as it is. You think those same people will be willing to spend more on an EV w/limited range and not knowing squat about charging, infrastructure, etc. while possessing a whole bunch of FUD?

The limited hybrid sales, many years after their introduction, is related to the fact that the cost benefits to the buyer of reducing gas use by about 20-25%, verses the higher initial purchase price, never produced financial (and arguably environmental) cost benefits for most car buyers, including myself.

I believe BEVs may be far more successful in gaining market share, since the huge ownership cost benefits (and hopefully, the environmental benefits, also) of reducing gas use by 100%, will eventually become obvious, to the greater car buying public.

Of course, this will only occur, if The market operates on a relatively “level playing field”.

IF the government policies that distort current energy markets, that obscure the true comparison cost of electricity vs. petroleum fuels, which currently subsidize gas more than electricity (IMO) are changed to increase the relative subsidy level to gasoline, BEVs will never replace ICEVs as the standard passenger vehicle in the US market.

 

[charlestonleafer]

Ford sells a lot of trucks, so I think that might keep them going for a while. I am very happy that the crown victoria is finally gone, I think that alone is a huge step in the right direction. I think anything that replaces the Crown Vic as a police car or Taxi will be more efficient. I'm glad to see them trying with the focus, and I did read in Motor Trend that they're working on electric trucks. As for GM and Chrysler, they've been in trouble since long before the first Leaf hit the streets :lol:

 

[adric22]

Dr.Rocket, exactly why do you think the big-3 are in trouble? All I can tell you is that if they are in trouble, it is not from a lack of EV sales. At this stage in the game, EV sales are probably not profitable to any manufacture. I'm willing to bet even Nissan has not seen a profit yet. It will take many years. However, I do see a time coming in the next 5 to 10 years that may very will spell trouble with the Big-3 if they don't get their act together. At some point gasoline prices will rise again, and EVs and hybrids will dominate the market. Not sure when that will happen, but it is only a question of when, not a question of if.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

Dr Rocket seems to be making his premise of the big 3 being in trouble on the assumption that entry into the EV market is key to a given companies long term success, presuming also that EV's will reach primary status at some point. I hope he is correct, it's a bold presumption. No one has a crystal ball. If oil prices continue to rise, EV's have a much better chance at feeding the growing gas-free hunger but we could be in for a surprise, gas prices may drop in the near future for a while and that could determine a lot. Environmental concerns aside, what I believe will propel EV's into the mainstream is that they are so much less expensive to fuel and maintain. As for the oil market, Iraq is home of one of the largest oil fields on the planet and it's production is about to skyrocket now that infrastructure repairs are being completed. And then there is North Dakota: http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/28/pf/north_dakota_jobs/index.htm. Who knows what's going to happen! A drop in oil prices put the renewable energy revolution in the 70's on ice for 20 plus years, let's hope that doesn't happen to EV's.

As for competition in the EV market, I went to the Seattle Auto Show on two days and both times the Leaf was drawing large crowds while the Ford Focus Electric, the Volt, Weego, EV smart CAR, Fisker Karma, were barely drawing anyone but the casual passer by. I believe that Tesla's decision to not be at the show was a huge mistake, I and many others were disappointed to not get a chance to drool over the S and the general public missed the opportunity to get to know one of the main contenders IMHO. Nissan is the king of the mountain for now, if market conditions persist for a promising EV market, their position is prime for dominance in a very lucrative business. In my mind, they have one last major challenge, figuring out how to solve cold whether range reduction. the max range under the worst conditions is going to determine how long a commute can be done in the car, at least for a good chunk of the country that experiences cold winters, even medium cold winters.

 

[scottf200]

Great set of links, cwerdna. Bravo.

In my mind, they have one last major challenge, figuring out how to solve cold whether range reduction. the max range under the worst conditions is going to determine how long a commute can be done in the car, at least for a good chunk of the country that experiences cold winters, even medium cold winters.

This is huge. The next 3 months will be full of stories and disappointment about this. At least the cold doesn't hurt the battery like heat does so the answer is your range will pick back up in early spring.

200 pure 100% EV miles so far this week in my '11 Volt and 0/zero gas miles. Not sure why us Volt owners are the "enemy" since we are both using electrons instead of gas.

 

[DaveL]

.... Not sure why us Volt owners are the "enemy" since we are both using electrons instead of gas.

I don't see any "enemies" here on MNL. We're all on this EV bandwagon together and many different versions of BEV and PHEVs will have to be successful if we are to move away from our dependance on oil.

I agree with many here that the Leaf and the Volt really are not competitors as they are not the same type of car. In fact, I'd love to replace our remaining Prius with a Volt but the budget won't support a new car every year or two so we'll be waiting until at least 2013 before we park a PHEV in the garage next to our Leaf.

In the meantime, I'm very interested in reading posts from Volt owners like you. Keep them coming!

 

[dgpcolorado]

...Not sure why us Volt owners are the "enemy" since we are both using electrons instead of gas.

Really? Would it be because of the utter delight you take in saying such things as this:

This is huge. The next 3 months will be full of stories and disappointment about this...

over and over?

I hope that the Volt is a very successful product because it does mostly use electricity. But I'm going to disagree with DaveL above because I find your shilling for the car very wearing to read, given that this is MNL and I wouldn't dream of posting in or hanging out at the Volt forum and touting the merits of the LEAF.

My 2¢.

 

[scottf200]

...Not sure why us Volt owners are the "enemy" since we are both using electrons instead of gas.

Really? Would it be because of the utter delight you take in saying such things as this:

This is huge. The next 3 months will be full of stories and disappointment about this...

over and over?
I hope that the Volt is a very successful product because it does mostly use electricity. But I'm going to disagree with DaveL above because I find your shilling for the car very wearing to read, given that this is MNL and I wouldn't dream of posting in or hanging out at the Volt forum and touting the merits of the LEAF.
My 2¢.

Huh? Perhaps because you are reading all my post from that perspective? I was talking about *EVs in general. Please realize the Volt has the same winter issues as any EV. All the Volt EV miles are going down as well. Some of us Volt owners will get low_30s/high_20s. So there will be articles written where the Volt is not getting "expected EV miles". This hurts the acceptance of *EVs in general. I'm sure there are a ton of folks in the general population that think the Volt only has a battery so could be worse for Volt press actually. I'm not delighted. Hope that helps clarify.

Aside: This has been talked a lot recently no the Volt forum because of a recent software update that resets the estimated EV/Battery mileage. So it takes several days for the system to learn your driving style, typical drives, etc. For some this corresponded with weather changes in their area so it was being questioned if the software updated changed something in that regards. Other users with the update didn't find any changes to that effect.

Aside2: When I first started posting here I was told by several that not only were there LEAF owners here but a ton of general EV enthusiast who many not even own LEAFs. ie. your 'this is a MNL' comment. HTH

Aside3: BTW, I miss Colorado as I lived there for 5 years. Miss the mountains.

 

[SanDust]

But I'm going to disagree with DaveL above because I find your shilling for the car very wearing to read, given that this is MNL and I wouldn't dream of posting in or hanging out at the Volt forum and touting the merits of the LEAF.

If "shilling" means posting technically accurate information in order to correct blatant misperceptions then I guess he's guilty. Otherwise not so much. Just out of curiosity, do you have an example of his having said anything about the Volt which would remotely match our own Dr. Rocket's rather insane endorsement of the Model S?

 

[cwerdna]

The limited hybrid sales, many years after their introduction, is related to the fact that the cost benefits to the buyer of reducing gas use by about 20-25%, verses the higher initial purchase price, never produced financial (and arguably environmental) cost benefits for most car buyers, including myself.
...
Of course, this will only occur, if The market operates on a relatively “level playing field”.

IF the government policies that distort current energy markets, that obscure the true comparison cost of electricity vs. petroleum fuels, which currently subsidize gas more than electricity (IMO) are changed to increase the relative subsidy level to gasoline, BEVs will never replace ICEVs as the standard passenger vehicle in the US market.

I don't know where you get your statistics of "reducing gas use by about 20-25%" from but the reduction is a lot greater than that. To do an unfair comparison of a compact '11 automatic Corolla w/a combined EPA mileage of 29 mpg vs. a mid-sized 50 mpg Prius yields a far greater reduction than 25%. As for "never produced financial (and arguably environmental) cost benefits", many (like Consumer Reports and Intellichoice) have done calculations that show you are ahead after 5 years w/a Prius (vs. the unfair comparison of Corolla) in terms of total cost of ownership (includes financing, depreciation, maintenance, etc.), usually based on 12K miles driven annually. As for your environmental claims, please cite your sources. 75-90% of the energy consumption in the lifetime of the car is from operation.

Unfortunately, the price of gasoline here in the US isn't priced according to its true cost, be it environmental, cost of military interventions, etc. There seems to be no political will to add additional costs to gasoline here. People in the US cry foul and complain when gas hits $4/gallon. When it gets "cheap", they go back to their buying monstrosity class SUVs.

The OP ought to drive around my part of San Jose and see the insane # of monstrosity class (curb weight of 5200+ lb.) SUVs like Tahoes, Yukons, Escalades, Expeditions, Suburbans and extended length the Escalade ESV, Yukon XL, etc. being driven around solo or w/minimal cargo and passengers. It doesn't seem like those folks would be an interested in an EV either (see my earlier sales stats too) as they could seem to care less about fuel economy or oil consumption.

 

[LEAFfan]

At least the cold doesn't hurt the battery like heat does so the answer is your range will pick back up in early spring.

By hurt the battery you mean it's damaged from the heat or just less capacity? The cold will give less capacity, but my LEAF's battery pack has not been hurt because of our heat. However, if you keep the battery pack in 120 degrees or more for 24 hours or more, THEN it could damage the battery. The hottest it was this past summer here was 118 and our garage reached 110, but just a few times and for a short time. Driving in the heat, I still could easily go 100 miles with an 80% charge.

 

[adric22]

I don't know where you get your statistics of "reducing gas use by about 20-25%" from but the reduction is a lot greater than that. To do an unfair comparison of a compact '11 automatic Corolla w/a combined EPA mileage of 29 mpg

Yes, it is an unfair comparison. That is why I'm very glad that Nissan did not make the same mistake that Honda made with their Civic vs. Civic hybrid. It is too easy to do a price comparison and work out what the cost difference is for the hybrid powertrain. Which, by the way, I don't think it is a fair comparison because I suspect they are taking on extra cost on top of it to make up for the smaller sales of the hybrid vs. the non hybrid. Much like they do with the Civic CNG. I think Ford made the fatal mistake of taking an existing vehicle (the focus) and turning it into an EV and charging a lot more for it. I guarantee you will start seeing people compare costs of driving the gasoline vs. EV version of the focus. Toyota and Nissan got it right when they created an entirely new vehicle that is easily recognizable on the street. Lets face it, a lot of people who have $30K or $40K to spend on a car do not want a car that looks just like a $15K counterpart driving all around town. They want to stand out with their expensive car.

SUVs like Tahoes, Yukons, Escalades, Expeditions, Suburbans and extended length the Escalade ESV, Yukon XL, etc. being driven around solo or w/minimal cargo and passengers. It doesn't seem like those folks would be an interested in an EV either (see my earlier sales stats too) as they could seem to care less about fuel economy or oil consumption.

I've truly never been able to comprehend this. While it is true that many of those wealthy people that drive these tanks don't seem to bat an eye at the fuel cost, many of them do. I've seen countless examples of where gasoline drops down very low and people start buying these huge vehicles. Then they start acting like a crybaby when gas climbs back up again. It is hard to imagine that after all of these years people don't realize that gasoline prices rise and fall regularly.

 

[edatoakrun]

"cwerdna"

The limited hybrid sales, many years after their introduction, is related to the fact that the cost benefits to the buyer of reducing gas use by about 20-25%, verses the higher initial purchase price, never produced financial (and arguably environmental) cost benefits for most car buyers, including myself.
...
Of course, this will only occur, if The market operates on a relatively “level playing field”.

IF the government policies that distort current energy markets, that obscure the true comparison cost of electricity vs. petroleum fuels, which currently subsidize gas more than electricity (IMO) are changed to increase the relative subsidy level to gasoline, BEVs will never replace ICEVs as the standard passenger vehicle in the US market.

I don't know where you get your statistics of "reducing gas use by about 20-25%" from but the reduction is a lot greater than that. To do an unfair comparison of a compact '11 automatic Corolla w/a combined EPA mileage of 29 mpg vs. a mid-sized 50 mpg Prius yields a far greater reduction than 25%. As for "never produced financial (and arguably environmental) cost benefits", many (like Consumer Reports and Intellichoice) have done calculations that show you are ahead after 5 years w/a Prius (vs. the unfair comparison of Corolla) in terms of total cost of ownership (includes financing, depreciation, maintenance, etc.), usually based on 12K miles driven annually. As for your environmental claims, please cite your sources. 75-90% of the energy consumption in the lifetime of the car is from operation...

"To do an unfair comparison..."

Do a fair comparison. In fact, there are many drivers, like myself, who do so little “city” driving, that the the most efficient hybrid, a Prius, would probably provide less than 20% fuel use reduction over a 42 mpg rated Cruze Eco. But I’ll admit I probably should have used 20%-30%, which would likely cover a higher percentage of small car drivers, with a more fair representation of the average.

"As for your environmental claims, please cite your sources."

You mean my statement that environmental benefits are "arguable" ?

I'd think it would be up to you to prove the assertion that the environmental benefits of driving a hybrid over the life of the vehicle are indisputable. I think the environmental benefits of BEV operation over ICEVs are arguable also, BTW, just a much weaker argument than there is for hybrids.

The question can only be determined after we assess environmental costs for different types of environmental damage, most crucially CO2 pollution.

Of course, that is the question that we, as a species, seem to most want to avoid considering.

"...many (like Consumer Reports and Intellichoice) have done calculations that show you are ahead after 5 years w/a Prius (vs. the unfair comparison of Corolla) in terms of total cost of ownership (includes financing, depreciation, maintenance, etc.), usually based on 12K miles driven annually."

I you want a reply, please give specific sources.

 

[TRONZ]

Regarding the OP, it is interesting to note that the "big" 3 bailed out of the Tokyo Motor Show. It would seem they had nothing socially responsible to show (again) so this was probably a smart move.