Train said:
It reminds me of the 1990's when people kept saying stuff like "These DVD players will never sell because they can't record" or "these digital cameras will never sell because you can't get prints made."
I never heard anyone say that. Ever.
Of course not, you weren't listening. Ever.
Back then, I was reviewing audio equipment for Stereophile magazine, and that was indeed one complaint against DVD players. There were others; you can read
here an article comparing an analysis of why the DVD would fail in the marketplace, written back at that time, compared with arguments against blu-ray adoption. Can't record was definitely one of them, and like most of the arguments, it looks pretty silly now.
One that didn't look silly was the initial price; the first DVD players were $1,000 and up--in 1996 dollars. The prices dropped quickly, of course. In '83 when Sony introduced the first CD player it was $1,000. In 1983 dollars! I sure didn't buy one. Probably only made sense for 5% of the people! Dang!
Digital cameras faced market opposition because, in the early days, people didn't understand how they were to get quality prints, because prints were the paradigm they understood, and high-quality computer printers weren't cheap. Also, the cost was high. And the quality per dollar was worse than what you could do with a decent SLR or even a good point-and-shoot.
And there lies the apt comparison here. The usage/value paradigm of an electric car--at least current electric cars--is different than those for an ICE.
To say that an electric car won't work for 95% of the people is crazy talk. Where do you get your figures? May not work as the only car for a significant number of people (millions, even), but it works very well in a two-car household for a large number of people (millions, even). I'm sure some great-great uncle of yours was saying back in the day that the horseless carriage wouldn't work for 95% of the people, too.
As for saving money now--yeah, that'll probably happen for me, vs. if I'd bought some other $24K commuter vehicle, thanks to all the early adopter incentives. The maintenance costs will certainly be lower than any ICE, unless the battery goes seriously bad and battery prices don't drop. Then, it might not be so good. Then again, every ICE I've ever owned I've pumped thousands of dollars into for various water pumps, timing belts, clutches, clutch cables, gaskets, not to mention oil changes, spark plugs, transmission work, radiator flushes, and all kinds of wrench work that won't be required for this car. We'll see.
We can agree--and the analogy holds with other early technology introductions--that over time, as prices decrease and capability increases, that electric cars will make sense for more and more people. As you said.