Leaf depreciation. Ouch!

[tkdbrusco]

I think the resale in 2 years time will definitely depend on the replacement battery cost and capacity. If the Gen2 comes out at $35K or less and has 150+ miles in range, it will make a major dent in used leaf prices. Nissan would have to do one of 2 things to counter this. (1) Dramatically decrease the price on the replacement batter for the Gen1, even at 85 miles of range, if a replacement back was less than $3K, then a used Gen1 would be a good option. (2) Create a replacement pack at roughly the same price $5.5K that had at least 120 miles of range.

If they maintain the status quo with the old leaf, then the price would have to drop in order for people to consider buying used. And considering that there are quite a few gen1 leafs on the road, and will be even more before the gen2 comes out, Nissan is going to be inundated with lease returns and the used market will be crowded with them as well.

From an environmental standpoint, it also seems very irresponsible to not create an alternative for this market, otherwise you have 100,000 EVs on the market that are unsellable after 60-70K miles?!! I thought these cars were supposed to help the environment, but I'm pretty sure driving a car for this short of a period of time and then scrapping it, it way worse than driving an ICE car to 200K before it is junked.

One of the reasons I went with the Leaf over another compliance car was that I assumed that as the range of new models increased, Nissan would have to address their existing leaf owners with replacement battery options that are reasonable. Its a lot more difficult to ignore 100,000 owners than it is 5,000 with a compliance car. It is much more likely that Fiat or Ford or BMW just says, "tough luck" to their gen1 owners.

 

[Valdemar]

Well...I look at it this way: First of all, I love my car (2011 SL). I'm @ 10 Bars, but that's OK, because it still meets 90+% of my needs. Also, my wife loves it (this is VERY important, as you know). Yesterday I charged at home to 100%, and drove 65 miles, half freeway and half streets, up & down some hills almost constantly, which took me to LBW and 34 Gids.

Hmm, you're doing a bit better than me. What was your mi/kWh? Only got 56 mi in mine today (mostly freeway at 63-65 mph) at 4.2 mi/kWh stopping at 15.9% and 31 GIDs. Then charged for another hour and drove another 8 miles getting back home at 27.8% and 51 GIDs. This is pretty typical for me.

Everyone else has got the depreciation topic covered - good job!

I generally can make it to work and back which is 60 miles round trip @4.4m/kWh and come back home above VLBW. Stats as of yesterday 203 gids/95% SOC/47.84 AHr/72% SOH/52.37% Hx/ 68-66-65.7-63.4 battery temps.

 

[Valdemar]

Lets not forget that Nissan is half way burning through its fed tax credit allowance. Couple years down the road the credit will start to phase out once they sell 200k cars. That may help to keep used car prices higher, unless some other manufacturer like Kia will be serious about selling EVs and will offer a longer range model for around 35k.

 

[derkraut]

Well...I look at it this way: First of all, I love my car (2011 SL). I'm @ 10 Bars, but that's OK, because it still meets 90+% of my needs. Also, my wife loves it (this is VERY important, as you know). Yesterday I charged at home to 100%, and drove 65 miles, half freeway and half streets, up & down some hills almost constantly, which took me to LBW and 34 Gids.

Hmm, you're doing a bit better than me. What was your mi/kWh? Only got 56 mi in mine today (mostly freeway at 63-65 mph) at 4.2 mi/kWh stopping at 15.9% and 31 GIDs. Then charged for another hour and drove another 8 miles getting back home at 27.8% and 51 GIDs. This is pretty typical for me.

Everyone else has got the depreciation topic covered - good job!

I generally can make it to work and back which is 60 miles round trip @4.4m/kWh and come back home above VLBW. Stats as of yesterday 203 gids/95% SOC/47.84 AHr/72% SOH/52.37% Hx/ 68-66-65.7-63.4 battery temps.

We've been averaging 4.5-4.7 mi/kWh in summer, and 4.2-4.4 during our San Diego "winters". I still have the original Ecopias, pumped up to 44psi. (Yes, it rides rather harshly). I preheat sometimes, but never use the heater while driving. I try to drive at or close to the speed limit everywhere (that means right lane on the freeways, of course). And, I always try to avoid sudden hard accelleration or braking. My wife drives it more than I do, and gets even better range, since she drives a bit more slowly than I do.

 

[LKK]

Take the battery out of the equation and the rest of the car is a pretty good buy. What do you think of the possibility of a private firm developing replacement batteries for the leaf and other EVs using the latest technology. It seems conceivable to me the replacement will have to conform with the physical and electrical interfaces, perhaps portions of the old battery could be reused.

 

[forummm]

My 2011 LEAF is worth less than my 2007 Prius. :shock:

The government isn't giving a $7500-$13500 tax credit for buying a new Prius. Once those tax credits go away, the used Leafs will increase in value.

 

[forummm]

Take the battery out of the equation and the rest of the car is a pretty good buy. What do you think of the possibility of a private firm developing replacement batteries for the leaf and other EVs using the latest technology. It seems conceivable to me the replacement will have to conform with the physical and electrical interfaces, perhaps portions of the old battery could be reused.

As batteries continue to get cheaper and more energy dense (kWh/pound), I would be shocked if someone (Nissan, Tesla, some 3rd party) didn't provide a replacement pack for Gen 1 Leafs with >24kWh. It could take 5 more years or whatever. And there might need to be some software update to allow this, but someone will figure it out.

 

[Moof]

Take the battery out of the equation and the rest of the car is a pretty good buy. What do you think of the possibility of a private firm developing replacement batteries for the leaf and other EVs using the latest technology. It seems conceivable to me the replacement will have to conform with the physical and electrical interfaces, perhaps portions of the old battery could be reused.

As batteries continue to get cheaper and more energy dense (kWh/pound), I would be shocked if someone (Nissan, Tesla, some 3rd party) didn't provide a replacement pack for Gen 1 Leafs with >24kWh. It could take 5 more years or whatever. And there might need to be some software update to allow this, but someone will figure it out.

The biggest clue will come when we get a sneak peak into the Leaf 2 pack. If the cells are a different size or format it will become much less likely. The current ~$6k for a new pack is still not terrible (not great either). A bump up by 50-100% in capacity would be great if it ever happened, but I am betting the chances are pretty low given the original huge resistance from Nissan on offering a clear replacement plan for the first generation. Unlike Tesla they appear to prefer to wash their hands of the cars once they are sold. The buy option was only available after there was a big push back for the lease plan that was a perpetual $100/mo.

I am very curious how many out of warranty Leaf's have bought a new battery at this point?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

If it weren't for the damn insurance costs I wouldn't mind picking up a used Leaf in the $6-8k price range even if it only had 30-40 miles of range left.

NEVER happen. With a new battery at $5400 and dropping, I doubt we will see anything much below 10K

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I think the resale in 2 years time will definitely depend on the replacement battery cost and capacity. If the Gen2 comes out at $35K or less and has 150+ miles in range, it will make a major dent in used leaf prices. Nissan would have to do one of 2 things to counter this. (1) Dramatically decrease the price on the replacement batter for the Gen1, even at 85 miles of range, if a replacement back was less than $3K, then a used Gen1 would be a good option. (2) Create a replacement pack at roughly the same price $5.5K that had at least 120 miles of range.

If they maintain the status quo with the old leaf, then the price would have to drop in order for people to consider buying used. And considering that there are quite a few gen1 leafs on the road, and will be even more before the gen2 comes out, Nissan is going to be inundated with lease returns and the used market will be crowded with them as well.

From an environmental standpoint, it also seems very irresponsible to not create an alternative for this market, otherwise you have 100,000 EVs on the market that are unsellable after 60-70K miles?!! I thought these cars were supposed to help the environment, but I'm pretty sure driving a car for this short of a period of time and then scrapping it, it way worse than driving an ICE car to 200K before it is junked.

One of the reasons I went with the Leaf over another compliance car was that I assumed that as the range of new models increased, Nissan would have to address their existing leaf owners with replacement battery options that are reasonable. Its a lot more difficult to ignore 100,000 owners than it is 5,000 with a compliance car. It is much more likely that Fiat or Ford or BMW just says, "tough luck" to their gen1 owners.

I see little incentive for Nissan to keep older LEAFs on the road. Cheaper pack prices will come from aftermarket vendors and I do see that happening when the supply lines beef up. Right now, there seems to just not be a lot of extra cells available.

As far the LEAF II; I think prices will come in pretty close to the same or a bit LOWER as now for one bump up on the range ladder (My guess; 115-120 mile range) which means ya; used LEAFs in the 85 mile range will be devalued quite a bit. I think the real mover will be when the LEAF II S with the 85 mile pack is offered at $25K before incentives

$1500-2500 more for 155-175ish

^^^^^^^^^^^
100% Speculation

 

[kilimats]

there are 10 ish Nissan leaf for sale in my area, been the same car for sale last 2 month, very very little interrest

 

[GerryAZ]

I was not concerned about depreciation because I intended to keep my 2011 for a long time after Nissan replaced the first battery and then announced battery replacement prices. It would be cost effective for me to drive it for several more years.

Unfortunately, depreciation became a real concern last Sunday when the 3/4-ton 4X4 diesel pickup failed to stop for the red light after I stopped. I am still waiting for the other driver's insurance company and the body shop to decide what to do. I am fine and I was able to drive the LEAF out of the intersection to a safe place to park. I am really impressed with the LEAF's body structure and crash energy absorption. The pickup also had to be towed away.

Gerry

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Call a personal injury attorney, you should at least get a new car out of the deal.

 

[TimLee]

...
Unfortunately, depreciation became a real concern last Sunday when the 3/4-ton 4X4 diesel pickup failed to stop for the red light after I stopped. ...

Sorry for your loss and glad you are OK
Disturbing to see such a horrible waste caused by an inattentive driver.
Brings back the sadness when an inattentive driver destroyed my beloved 1988 Mercur Scorpio.

Does seem with modern electronic vehicles that NHTSA should do the right thing and require brake lights that activate on deceleration :!:

 

[GerryAZ]

...
Unfortunately, depreciation became a real concern last Sunday when the 3/4-ton 4X4 diesel pickup failed to stop for the red light after I stopped. ...

Does seem with modern electronic vehicles that NHTSA should do the right thing and require brake lights that activate on deceleration :!:

All three bright red LED brake lights were on along with all the red traffic lights. I am just glad I was not driving one of my other vehicles that would be harder to replace. It could have been a lot worse because I considered riding my motorcycle that day.

Gerry

 

[rogersleaf]

Does seem with modern electronic vehicles that NHTSA should do the right thing and require brake lights that activate on deceleration :!:

One of the major safety concerns I have with the Leaf is the brake lights not illuminating while regenerative braking. Starting about 15 years ago, brake lights on over-the-road commercial buses illuminate when using transmission retarders or engine brakes. I can tell you the rate of deceleration in "B" mode is slightly stronger than the highest setting for the engine/Jake brake in a commercial bus. It certainly has me paying a distracting level of attention behind the car when slowing. This can't be a difficult mod on a Leaf.

 

[GerryAZ]

I agree that brake lights (perhaps flashing) or other lights to indicate deceleration would be good. In my case, it would not have mattered because I do not have a lot of regeneration in D mode with cool temperatures and I had my foot on the brake pedal.

To get back on topic, you really can't let investment issues play too much of a role in determining what to drive because you cannot predict the future. The best you can do is choose what you want to drive that fits your lifestyle and financial goals. I have wanted to drive electric for local driving for a long time so I reserved a Leaf as soon as I could, ordered it as soon as Nissan would accept my order, and purchased it as soon as the dealer received it. I did not care whether it was a good investment, I just wanted it to drive. I will drive the 2011 again if it is repaired, otherwise I will buy a new one.

Gerry

 

[SteveInSeattle]

The net result is that I can buy a used 2013 for less than my lease residual.

 

[rogersleaf]

To get back on topic, you really can't let investment issues play too much of a role in determining what to drive because you cannot predict the future. The best you can do is choose what you want to drive that fits your lifestyle and financial goals. I have wanted to drive electric for local driving for a long time so I reserved a Leaf as soon as I could, ordered it as soon as Nissan would accept my order, and purchased it as soon as the dealer received it. I did not care whether it was a good investment, I just wanted it to drive. I will drive the 2011 again if it is repaired, otherwise I will buy a new one.

Gerry

You walked away from this accident which is concern #1.

A higher rate of depreciation doesn't make it a bad car, it only means the secondary market is valuing it less than the alternatives. Consider the resale problems in a place like N.E. Ohio where there are no local incentives and almost no public charging access to stimulate demand. Leasing was the only way I would consider the product. When gasoline was pushing $4/gal vs. 7.5 cents/kWh, there was a solid economic argument for getting a Leaf. Last week I filled my CRV for $1.72/gal., which mostly killed this argument. My hunch is this car will be worth $3,000 less than the residual (~$13,500) when the lease is up in 27 months. Leasing was the most effective way to hedge this risk. It will be a shame if I have to toss the keys & walk away from an otherwise enjoyable car after 3 years when I would like to get 8-10 yrs of service.

You are correct to buy the product because it's a good fit. Every vehicle that is driven daily will eventually be worth scrap value so depreciation eventually becomes a dead argument.

 

[MrIanB]

I feels y'all's pain. My 32k 2013 Volt was appraised by a couple a dealers this month at 15k. I Leaf lease ends in May and they can have it back. Too much inequity on value and purchase price.


Ian B