LEAF sales disappointing? Duh, what do you expect?

[scottf200]

Have you guys heard any rumors about the March'12 sales numbers?

 

[SanDust]

Scott, I think the title of this thread probably gives an indication. In any event, Nissan is going to have to learn how to sell a limited range EV. With the initial roll out it made two mistakes. One was bypassing the dealers and selling direct. That resulted in more early sales but it didn't get the dealers on board, and ultimately Nissan will need the dealers in order to take sales to the next level (sad but true). GM probably made the wiser decision in going through the dealers when rolling out the Volt. Most of the Chevy dealers may not be on board either, which suggests how hard it's going to be, but it seems like a few have really run with the concept and are doing very well with it. Other dealers are looking at that and both learning and deciding that it may be worth the effort.

The other mistake was the polar bear ads and the pure environmental pitch. That's too limiting because the market for a $35K environmental vehicle isn't that great and because the Prius is already established in that niche at a lower price point. Nissan is going to have to hit the reset button and come up with a pitch that appeals to a broader audience. With gas at $4/gallon there would seem to be a decent opportunity to sell total cost of ownership.

Hopefully I'm wrong and the Leaf will have a great month but anecdotally that doesn't seem to be what is happening.

 

[edatoakrun]

Only when Nissan has to close down it's assembly line, due to lack of global demand, Like GM had to for the Volt, will I be truly "disappointed" by LEAF sales.

I'd rather Nissan sent more of it's LEAF production to the US, but I'm far more concerned that it develops it's BEV program into a profitable operation, rather than make more "loss leader" US sales.

IMO, Nissan would be making a poor business decision, by sending a very large proportion of its current 3,000-4,000 monthly LEAF production the US market, where both LEAF and gas prices are lower, than In most all other world markets, and where the QC infrastructure growth has been so stunted, by the maneuvering of QC-incapable vehicle manufactures.

Expect US LEAF sales to rise significantly, only when US production ramps up.

Expect 5-figure per month Nissan U.S. BEV sales, only when the QC network is well under way.

Until then, Much U.S. LEAF production will probably be sold, in more developed nations.

 

[Fabio]

In Silicon Valley you can't drive 5 minutes without seeing one.

After almost 4 months I have yet to see another LEAF in the wild.

 

[scottf200]

Scott, I think the title of this thread probably gives an indication. In any event, Nissan is going to have to learn how to sell a limited range EV.
<snip>
Hopefully I'm wrong and the Leaf will have a great month but anecdotally that doesn't seem to be what is happening.

To be clear I want they LEAF to be successful in sales as well because to me it (news articles) will affect all *EV type of car impressions and sales.
I'm surprised with Smyrna, Tennessee to start Leaf production by late 2012 that they are not more aggressive with the dealerships.
I'm also surprised with the LEAF being "HOV" access eligible in several states that that in itself has not helped sales considerably (+$4 gas).

Nissan plans to build 150,000 Leafs at the new plant each year and that's a big number IMO!

 

[SanDust]

Only when Nissan has to close down it's assembly line, due to lack of global demand, Like GM had to for the Volt, will I be truly "disappointed" by LEAF sales.

I'd rather Nissan sent more of it's LEAF production to the US, but I'm far more concerned that it develops it's BEV program into a profitable operation, rather than make more "loss leader" US sales.

IMO, Nissan would be making a poor business decision, by sending a very large proportion of its current 3,000-4,000 monthly LEAF production the US market, where both LEAF and gas prices are lower, than In most all other world markets, and where the QC infrastructure growth has been so stunted, by the maneuvering of QC-incapable vehicle manufactures.

Expect US LEAF sales to rise significantly, only when US production ramps up.

Blaming the lack of demand on the lack of QC infrastructure is misplaced. If Nissan does this then they will never figure out how to sell the car. In any event, it will be a very long time before a good QC network rolls out. There just isn't a business case for QCs at the moment, so much so that Ecotality wasn't able to give away QC chargers.

With sales below 500 units a month, and reports of orphans, it's hard to believe that low sales are due to supply constraints. Surely Nissan could send 1000 units to NA if the demand was there. Just looking at the sales numbers, unit sales peaked in June of 2011 and have been sliding ever since. It would seem inconceivable that Nissan would voluntarily allow this to happen given that in December it's gong to have a whole lot of capacity coming on line. You can't just flip a switch and go from 500 to 5000 units a month.

Hopefully sales in March will be sharply up from February, but if they're not then IMO Nissan has to hit the reset button and go in a new direction with the marketing.

 

[jmillington]

In Silicon Valley you can't drive 5 minutes without seeing one.

After almost 4 months I have yet to see another LEAF in the wild.

At work in the Sacramento, CA, area, there are 4 Leafs.
Here's a picture of 3 of them charging (mine is the blue Leaf)...

 

[cwerdna]

In Silicon Valley you can't drive 5 minutes without seeing one.

Depends on where. I live in Silicon Valley can drive maybe 2 hours and maybe see only 0-2 Leafs. Other days, I'm lucky to see a couple.

 

[Fabio]

Try playing the game of "Punch LEAF" driving on 101 between RWC and SJ during commute hours.

In Silicon Valley you can't drive 5 minutes without seeing one.

Depends on where. I live in Silicon Valley can drive maybe 2 hours and maybe see only 0-2 Leafs. Other days, I'm lucky to see a couple.

 

[yoyofella]

Try playing the game of "Punch LEAF" driving on 101 between RWC and SJ during commute hours.

In Silicon Valley you can't drive 5 minutes without seeing one.

Depends on where. I live in Silicon Valley can drive maybe 2 hours and maybe see only 0-2 Leafs. Other days, I'm lucky to see a couple.

I haven't been excited to see a EV on my commute for about 1/2 year. During my daily commute from Palo Alto to East Bay through 101, 237, and 880, I probably see at least 5~10 EVs each way. . Most are Leafs, but plenty of Volt (harder to spot) and Tesla. Of course, they are whizzing by so quickly on the HOV lane that it's hard to keep track :lol:

I did get excited seeing my first Prius plug-in, a bit worried that the charging door doesn't lock. Still looking out for that first Ford Focus EV.

 

[Deleted member 3147]

My company just moved into our new building and right across the street is a building with some "EV Reserved" parking spaces and 3 or 4 Leafs. These are all 1-story high-tech R&D type buildings in Mountain View (Silicon Valley).

 

[TurboFroggy]

Only when Nissan has to close down it's assembly line, due to lack of global demand, Like GM had to for the Volt, will I be truly "disappointed" by LEAF sales.

I'd rather Nissan sent more of it's LEAF production to the US, but I'm far more concerned that it develops it's BEV program into a profitable operation, rather than make more "loss leader" US sales.

IMO, Nissan would be making a poor business decision, by sending a very large proportion of its current 3,000-4,000 monthly LEAF production the US market, where both LEAF and gas prices are lower, than In most all other world markets, and where the QC infrastructure growth has been so stunted, by the maneuvering of QC-incapable vehicle manufactures.

Expect US LEAF sales to rise significantly, only when US production ramps up.

Expect 5-figure per month Nissan U.S. BEV sales, only when the QC network is well under way.

Until then, Much U.S. LEAF production will probably be sold, in more developed nations.

QC network is a nice to have but not a requirement. 98% of all charging happens at home. For public perception, eh maybe a little, but I don't think it is a huge factor. Until there is a Leaf of every color at every Nissan Dealer in the US, the Leaf is still very supply constrained. Anything talk of lack of sales or slow sales, until that "1 of every color at every dealership" is met, is complete a total BS.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Only when Nissan has to close down it's assembly line, due to lack of global demand, Like GM had to for the Volt, will I be truly "disappointed" by LEAF sales.

I'd rather Nissan sent more of it's LEAF production to the US, but I'm far more concerned that it develops it's BEV program into a profitable operation, rather than make more "loss leader" US sales.

IMO, Nissan would be making a poor business decision, by sending a very large proportion of its current 3,000-4,000 monthly LEAF production the US market, where both LEAF and gas prices are lower, than In most all other world markets, and where the QC infrastructure growth has been so stunted, by the maneuvering of QC-incapable vehicle manufactures.

Expect US LEAF sales to rise significantly, only when US production ramps up.

Expect 5-figure per month Nissan U.S. BEV sales, only when the QC network is well under way.

Until then, Much U.S. LEAF production will probably be sold, in more developed nations.

QC network is a nice to have but not a requirement. 98% of all charging happens at home. For public perception, eh maybe a little, but I don't think it is a huge factor. Until there is a Leaf of every color at every Nissan Dealer in the US, the Leaf is still very supply constrained. Anything talk of lack of sales or slow sales, until that "1 of every color at every dealership" is met, is complete a total BS.

although correct; outsiders looking in will still have range anxiety. do a poll of your co-workers. have them tell you the average distance of their trips then have them actually track all trips made in a month. u will most likely see a huge difference in figures.

QC does fill a large void both physically and psychologically. it is needed

 

[Aeolus]

Not only is QC needed to get many consumers beyond the idea of range anxiety, or to pick up those few trips a month that are outside the range, but there's a real need for an infrastructure for everyone who rents.

A friend of mine who rents just bought a Prius C. Even if he could get his current landlord to provide for Level 1 or Level 2 charging, he didn't want to be constrained on his choices of where he lived next.

 

[edatoakrun]

Only when Nissan has to close down it's assembly line, due to lack of global demand, Like GM had to for the Volt, will I be truly "disappointed" by LEAF sales.

I'd rather Nissan sent more of it's LEAF production to the US, but I'm far more concerned that it develops it's BEV program into a profitable operation, rather than make more "loss leader" US sales.

IMO, Nissan would be making a poor business decision, by sending a very large proportion of its current 3,000-4,000 monthly LEAF production the US market, where both LEAF and gas prices are lower, than In most all other world markets, and where the QC infrastructure growth has been so stunted, by the maneuvering of QC-incapable vehicle manufactures.

Expect US LEAF sales to rise significantly, only when US production ramps up.

Expect 5-figure per month Nissan U.S. BEV sales, only when the QC network is well under way.

Until then, Much U.S. LEAF production will probably be sold, in more developed nations.

QC network is a nice to have but not a requirement. 98% of all charging happens at home. For public perception, eh maybe a little, but I don't think it is a huge factor. Until there is a Leaf of every color at every Nissan Dealer in the US, the Leaf is still very supply constrained. Anything talk of lack of sales or slow sales, until that "1 of every color at every dealership" is met, is complete a total BS.

although correct; outsiders looking in will still have range anxiety. do a poll of your co-workers. have them tell you the average distance of their trips then have them actually track all trips made in a month. u will most likely see a huge difference in figures.

QC does fill a large void both physically and psychologically. it is needed

...to sell 10,000+ LEAFs each month, once US production reaches full capacity, QC is required, IMO, as stated above.

 

[gascant]

It seems every day I have at least one conversation with someone who is very interested in my LEAF, and really wants to move in the direction of an all-electric car. I think the LEAF owners are going to sell far more cars than all of the sales people on the floor of the Nissan dealerships.

Which leaves me curious as to why Nissan doesn't seem to interact more with the owners.

Actually, they are interacting with us quite regularly here in the San Francisco Bay Area. So far, we haven't discussed the sales process with them, but they are completely supportive of our efforts in promoting the LEAF and their future EV's. If you have specific suggestions for them, we can pass them along. We know that they (or their PR firm) does watch the forum, too.

 

[KJD]

If you have specific suggestions for them, we can pass them along. We know that they (or their PR firm) does watch the forum, too.

Yes I have a couple of suggestions.

1) Require EVERY Nissan dealer to have one of every color Leaf on the lot for buyers to see and drive.

2) Require EVERY Nissan dealer to provide a public charge station that can be accessed 24x7 and that means 365 days a year.

The Leaf is a great car. People need to be able to see it and touch and drive it. Same as any other nissan model, they need a good selection of cars at the dealers. The cars will sell them selfs in spite of the bonehead sales people at the dealers.

People need to be able to buy electricity as easy as you can buy gas. The dealers have the most to gain from this and therefore they should put some effort into building the EV infrastructure. They could put up advertising all over the charge station area. It will pay them back in increased car sales over the long run.

If the dealer is unwilling to have an all night charge station at the dealership, they should build one at the nearest freeway exit/entrance. It could be something as simple as the charge stations done at the local Walgreens stores.

 

[gascant]

If you have specific suggestions for them, we can pass them along. We know that they (or their PR firm) does watch the forum, too.

Yes I have a couple of suggestions.

1) Require EVERY Nissan dealer to have one of every color Leaf on the lot for buyers to see and drive.

2) Require EVERY Nissan dealer to provide a public charge station that can be accessed 24x7 and that means 365 days a year.

The Leaf is a great car. People need to be able to see it and touch and drive it. Same as any other nissan model, they need a good selection of cars at the dealers. The cars will sell them selfs in spite of the bonehead sales people at the dealers.

People need to be able to buy electricity as easy as you can buy gas. The dealers have the most to gain from this and therefore they should put some effort into building the EV infrastructure. They could put up advertising all over the charge station area. It will pay them back in increased car sales over the long run.

If the dealer is unwilling to have an all night charge station at the dealership, they should build one at the nearest freeway exit/entrance. It could be something as simple as the charge stations done at the local Walgreens stores.

Interesting suggestions that probably would, ultimately, result in more sales. Allow me to be the devil's advocate for a moment, though. The thing is that Nissan doesn't own the dealerships, so I'm not sure how much leverage they have to enforce your suggestions. Local dealers have said that they had to buy their own AV charging docks, tools, and safety gear (which set them back plenty, and created some tension with Nissan). Since dealers finance the cars on their lots, not being able to sell them wouldn't sit too well especially when supplies are so tight. I do think that Nissan is serious about EV's since they've already committed to four of them (and #3 will be unveiled shortly). What would you suggest, given the present limited production, that Nissan could do to make the sales process more user friendly?

 

[cwerdna]

If you have specific suggestions for them, we can pass them along. We know that they (or their PR firm) does watch the forum, too.

Yes I have a couple of suggestions.

1) Require EVERY Nissan dealer to have one of every color Leaf on the lot for buyers to see and drive.

2) Require EVERY Nissan dealer to provide a public charge station that can be accessed 24x7 and that means 365 days a year.

The Leaf is a great car. People need to be able to see it and touch and drive it. Same as any other nissan model, they need a good selection of cars at the dealers. The cars will sell them selfs in spite of the bonehead sales people at the dealers.

People need to be able to buy electricity as easy as you can buy gas. The dealers have the most to gain from this and therefore they should put some effort into building the EV infrastructure. They could put up advertising all over the charge station area. It will pay them back in increased car sales over the long run.

If the dealer is unwilling to have an all night charge station at the dealership, they should build one at the nearest freeway exit/entrance. It could be something as simple as the charge stations done at the local Walgreens stores.

I think #1 is a bit excessive for such a limited production quantity (and apparently demand) car. I think they just need to be required to keep a demo or two. If there are other non-Leaf Nissans w/the same colors as the Leaf they don't have, at least the salesman can say, "yeah, that car over there is the same color as ____ on the Leaf." When I got my 06 Prius (when there were waiting lists of >1 month), my salesman pointed out a Sienna w/the same green as the green available on the Prius.

Regarding the dealer financing the cars, if Nissan doesn't already do this, perhaps Nissan can loan each Leaf certified dealer a single demo Leaf or give them a low lease on one?

For #2, what's the purpose? I don't think that by itself will help that much. Is it just so that buyers have less range anxiety knowing that they can top off at a Nissan dealer, in an emergency? It'd be better if the dealers were required to have L2 (since L2 is slow) and QC. The only thing is, what's in it for the dealer? They might need to pay for the electricity, installation, equipment, and repairs if it's vandalized (esp. by copper thieves). Also, if it's vandalized, it could leave the person w/the emergency needs stuck.

Some dealers are set up in way so that they block entrances and exits via gates and blocker cars to make it harder for thieves.

 

[edatoakrun]

I spoke to the Nissan sales manager yesterday, at the Dealer closest to me Crown Nissan in Redding CA.

I asked him how many LEAFs he sold last month, the answer was one.

Why only one?

The one ordered, was all he had to sell.

How many could he sell?

He doesn't know, but many more each month, if he actually had LEAFs on the lot, next to the hundreds of other new Nissans he has in his inventory to sell.

Nissan has sent only 2 LEAFs for his dealer's inventory since the roll-out.

The first "demo" he got was sold, as soon as he got the second "demo" came in.

IMO, Until LEAFs are available in higher numbers, so they are available by the "conventional" new car sales process, monthly sales can not be used as a gauge of current LEAF demand, or an indicator of future sales demand, when LEAFs are available in quantity.

And this is still at least a year from now, whenever the US plant begins significant production.