Nissan LEAF Death Watch

[WetEV]

I too would rather NOT have a TMS. I like the simplicity and energy savings. But, the market demands range. And as it stands, getting mass-market acceptable range means batteries that need the ministrations of a TMS. Despite advances, batteries aren't quite good enough yet even to reach the sweet spot that includes both economy and range. Perhaps Tesla's advancements will get us there. It's another leap past that to where TMS is not needed for cars that will appeal to the mass market.

The market isn't a single point. ...

True. That's why I quite deliberately used the term "mass market". Niche vehicles are fine but the mass-market is going to be the primary determinant.

All vehicle markets are niche markets. At least since the Model T, there was a true mass market car.

Partly this is artificial, as otherwise the declining cost of production with increasing volume would lead to a single auto company. So auto companies develop differences. Partly it is real, as people are different and want/need different things.

 

[SageBrush]

Let's evaluate the addressable market in the USA for LEAF type EVs:

1. PNW or cooler climate, AND
2. Satisfied with 50 kW or less, zombie network DC fast charging

That *must* be good for a couple hundred sales a month. :lol:
Will Nissan keep the Zombie walking for Nubo and WetEV ?

I doubt it

 

[Nubo]

The market isn't a single point. ...

True. That's why I quite deliberately used the term "mass market". Niche vehicles are fine but the mass-market is going to be the primary determinant.

All vehicle markets are niche markets. At least since the Model T, there was a true mass market car.

Partly this is artificial, as otherwise the declining cost of production with increasing volume would lead to a single auto company. So auto companies develop differences. Partly it is real, as people are different and want/need different things.

The mass market can drive confluences in technology while accomodating multiple manufacturers and use cases. For example, show me a currently-selling automobile that uses a carburetor. It went the way of obsoleted technologies before it -- manual chokes, manual spark-advance, and crank-starting. If a TMS-free car can provide adequate performance in other areas it will succeed. If it can't then elimination of TMS will remain a nice-if-it-worked proposition.

 

[LeftieBiker]

For example, show me a currently-selling automobile that uses a carburetor.

A lot of cars use throttle body fuel injection, which is essentially a carb with the internal valves removed and a single (two, counting a cold start injector) fuel injector. Think of it as a sort of transitional beast on an evolutionary chart. A TBI system can look so much like a carb that my father, who drag raced for years, thought my Mom's Thunderbird had a carb, when it in fact had TBI.

 

[WetEV]

Let's evaluate the addressable market in the USA for LEAF type EVs:

1. PNW or cooler climate
2. Satisfied with 50 kW or less, zombie network DC fast charging

That *must* be good for a couple hundred sales a month. :lol:

1. Most of the US will see similar battery life with a passive cooled battery as with an actively cooled battery.

2. Most driving doesn't involve DC fast charging. As for zombie network, CCs is the likely winner. Chademo is likely to fade away, and SC is likely to as well... unless Musk becomes the first Trillionare and almost every car/truck sold in the USA is a Tesla.

 

[cwerdna]

2. Most driving doesn't involve DC fast charging. As for zombie network, CCs is the likely winner. Chademo is likely to fade away, and SC is likely to as well... unless Musk becomes the first Trillionare and almost every car/truck sold in the USA is a Tesla.

As for the bolded part, I wouldn't be so sure of that. Every time I've passed by the two Supercharger (actually, urban-style 72 kW) sites under 8 miles from home, there's usually at least a few to many Teslas using them.

One of those sites also happen to have Electrify America DC FCs (1 CHAdeMO + 1 J1772 + multiple CCS) . Every time I've passed by the two EA sites within that radius, either I'm the only user (and I don't use then any more after they crazy price increase in CA) or there's nobody there.

I will be in the strip mall w/one of the SC sites tonight and might have time to pass by an EA site.

I've sometimes happen to be by other Tesla SC sites and they're used, for sure.

I do agree that w/Nissan's Ariya announcement, CHAdeMO is likely going to fade away in the US.

 

[SageBrush]

If a TMS-free car can provide adequate performance in other areas it will succeed. If it can't then elimination of TMS will remain a nice-if-it-worked proposition.

Yep.

Of the three performance areas of
1. FAST DC charging limited by heat buildup
2. Slow battery degradation
3. FAST DC charging limited by cold weather

The LEAF can improve (2) but not reach the performance of TMS, and physics gets in the way of (1) and (3).
And if Tesla's battery day is realized, reducing the complexity and cost of heat transfer is dropping rapidly in cost and just a year away.
As Elon said, the tabless cylindrical cell is one hell of an advance. If other manufacturers can imitate Tesla in its production I bet it becomes the only cell tech on the market for EVs in short order.

 

[SageBrush]

Let's evaluate the addressable market in the USA for LEAF type EVs:

1. PNW or cooler climate
2. Satisfied with 50 kW or less, zombie network DC fast charging

That *must* be good for a couple hundred sales a month. :lol:

1. Most of the US will see similar battery life with a passive cooled battery as with an actively cooled battery.

LOL

 

[Oilpan4]

With 2 temperature bars my car will only start "fast charging" at about 5kw.
It will slowly increase as the battery warms up.
That's kind of important if you live in a cooler climate and want to go some were beyond the winter limited range.

 

[WetEV]

2. Most driving doesn't involve DC fast charging. As for zombie network, CCs is the likely winner. Chademo is likely to fade away, and SC is likely to as well... unless Musk becomes the first Trillionare and almost every car/truck sold in the USA is a Tesla.

As for the bolded part, I wouldn't be so sure of that. Every time I've passed by the two Supercharger (actually, urban-style 72 kW) sites under 8 miles from home, there's usually at least a few to many Teslas using them.

One of those sites also happen to have Electrify America DC FCs (1 CHAdeMO + 1 J1772 + multiple CCS) . Every time I've passed by the two EA sites within that radius, either I'm the only user (and I don't use then any more after they crazy price increase in CA) or there's nobody there.

I will be in the strip mall w/one of the SC sites tonight and might have time to pass by an EA site.

I've sometimes happen to be by other Tesla SC sites and they're used, for sure.

I do agree that w/Nissan's Ariya announcement, CHAdeMO is likely going to fade away in the US.

This is a network problem. The more used network will be larger, more convenient and cheaper. The more convenient and cheaper, the more use. The larger network should be more reliable as well. This is a system with only one network standard being stable. Sure, two nearly equal size might stay around for a long time.

Either CCS fades away or SC fades away. If Tesla maintains a 50% or more market share, which Tesla has today, then CCS will likely fade away. Along with all alternatives to Tesla cars. This is possible, but depends on Tesla making few mistakes and everyone else ignoring the threat.

If Tesla fails to hold a 50% market share, then the CCS network open to all cars will be better and cheaper than SC. Tesla will need to decide. Keep pouring increasing amounts of money into subsidizing SC stations, or switch to CCS. At some point, they must.

Standards are wonderful, everyone want's their own. But the largest installed base standard should win, every time.

 

[palmermd]

The Leaf is not the only thing on the Deathwatch. The entire company at Nissan is on a deathwatch. They have been spiraling around the drain ever since Ghosn left. They cant post the losses they are posting for too many quarters before its all over. The new CEO needs to focus on the business of selling cars and forget about Ghosn for a while. They have some decent products in the pipeline, but they need to execute to get the company going again....with or without the Leaf.

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

I think the Leaf sells more now in the UK than in the whole of the US.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/07/uk-september-ev-market-share-hits-10-5-up-3x-year-on-year/

 

[SageBrush]

The Leaf is not the only thing on the Deathwatch. The entire company at Nissan is on a deathwatch.

I think that Japan letting Nissan die is about as likely as the USA letting GM die or Germany letting VW die or France letting Renault die or Italy letting Fiat die ... you get the idea

I don't know enough to say whether it is possible for Nissan to be bought by another company with government backing and obligations but one way or another programs that are not profitable TODAY are on the chopping block

 

[WetEV]

Under Death watch, the iMiEV.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1129831_mitsubishi-likely-to-stop-making-the-i-miev-electric-car

Although the move hasn't been publicly confirmed, Nikkei quotes an unnamed executive as saying: "We didn't have enough money and personnel to continue investing in EV development."

with rear-wheel-drive, staggered tire sizes, and a fairly soft suspension with quick, vivid steering, the i-MiEV was always surprisingly good fun to drive around town.

I test drove one, and if the LEAF wasn't available in 2012, I might have bought one.

 

[WetEV]

1. Most of the US will see similar battery life with a passive cooled battery as with an actively cooled battery.

LOL

An answer based on chemistry and physics would be nice.

A passively cooled battery is safer. Is it time to put burning Teslas pictures up again?

 

[lebikerboy]

"If Tesla fails to hold a 50% market share, then the CCS network open to all cars will be better and cheaper than SC. Tesla will need to decide. Keep pouring increasing amounts of money into subsidizing SC stations, or switch to CCS. At some point, they must."

Tesla's in Europe are already CCS...

 

[WetEV]

"If Tesla fails to hold a 50% market share, then the CCS network open to all cars will be better and cheaper than SC. Tesla will need to decide. Keep pouring increasing amounts of money into subsidizing SC stations, or switch to CCS. At some point, they must."

Tesla's in Europe are already CCS...

Because the EU requires it.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/16/standardization-of-ev-charging-in-the-eu/

Competition is a good thing. Good laws promote competition, and prevent monopoly.

 

[jjeff]

"If Tesla fails to hold a 50% market share, then the CCS network open to all cars will be better and cheaper than SC. Tesla will need to decide. Keep pouring increasing amounts of money into subsidizing SC stations, or switch to CCS. At some point, they must."

Tesla's in Europe are already CCS...

Because the EU requires it.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/16/standardization-of-ev-charging-in-the-eu/

Competition is a good thing. Good laws promote competition, and prevent monopoly.

While I agree, competition is also very wasteful. Remember Beta vs VHS? Beta was better but VHS was adopted by more companies and won out, tons of perfectly fine Beta machines(like mine) went in the trash(actually recycle in my case) because people couldn't rent their favorite movies
CCS vs Chadmo vs Tesla, again one or more will probably die out resulting in lots of vehicles without the ability to charge, at least at convenient places and again lots of technology will end up in the landfills.

A very wasteful time as far as electronics was when cell phone companies had free reign on what kind of charger end they could use. It was so awful that companies like Samsung had a different charging end on almost every phone they made! Even within the same year one model phone would probably use a different end than another, buy a new phone and throw away your old charger only to have to purchase a new one for your next Samsung, other companies did similar things. Sure it cost companies like Samsung more to make all those different kind of ends and stock all kinds of different chargers but they still made more money because every time someone got a new phone they'd have to purchase new chargers, instead of reusing their old ones(for both car chargers and home spare chargers).
I believe?? it some point mgfs. were forced to standardize(by a govt. agency??) and no longer did one have to purchase new car and home chargers for each new phone they got. Not sure how Apple always got by with having a special end for their iPhones, first 30 pin then Lightning Connector and now new Androids seem to have switched to the new bi-directional charging end but standardization is nice when it works.

 

[SageBrush]

While I agree, competition is also very wasteful.
A very wasteful time as far as electronics was when cell phone companies had free reign on what kind of charger end they could use.

Your argument somewhat puts the cart before the donkey in those cases where tech competes until a superior product wins. I agree that is not always the case, usually when monopoly power is abused.

A couple years ago I decided that any electronic device I henceforth bought would have to charge via USB-C. I have not been 100% compliant, but pretty close and the cable and charger hell in my home is a very small fraction of what it once was. My two deviations this year were a fitness watch, and a laser level (I was shipped the wrong model.) I tell the story to say that consumers have a choice to enforce a standard.

 

[jake14mw]

The Leaf has simply run it's course. Introduced as a 2011 model, and the current model re-used many parts from the old one, not enough of an update. I just don't think there is anything special about it that makes it desirable. I still think that the number of people looking to buy AN ELECTRIC CAR under $50,000 is very low. People don't have a want for just some electric car. People have a want for a cool car, a revolutionary car, a fast car, a sexy car, not just an electric car. That is why Tesla has been successful, and why no other electric car has had big sales numbers.

I think the next jump in battery technology that brings battery costs down will be the thing that really propels EVs. Once car manufacturers can make as much money selling EVs as they can selling gas cars, then the car manufacturers will push to sell them instead of just tolerate them as they are now.