"No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Perry

[evnow]

Is there any evidence that cost-effective and practical EV batteries "with twice the energy density than Nissan currently has" currently exist, or will by 2015?

Yes - search for Nissan & NMC.

My "evnow's law" is that every five years the battery density doubles & the cost halves - with apologies to Moore.

 

[DaveEV]

I'm surprised that the average daily miles for the LEAF (37 miles) appears to be significantly higher than the nationwide average of 31 miles per day (Google it).

In which case the LEAF is suitable for a lot more driving than it's detractors claim...

 

[EVDrive]

Haha Mark Perry. Sure the Leaf is a perfect short range commuter but honestly you will have to have options for buyers to purchase additional capacity if the Leaf is to become the Prius of eve's and a long term sales leader. I manage with the limited range and it works for 90% of my driving, however, I would happily pay an extra 5 k for an additional 6kwh pack under the trunk. Get with the options scenario Mark. Follow the Tesla model S more money for more range strategy. More range means more sales. The engineering work has been mostly done so adding in a extra pack option for those who want to pay for it is pretty easy. Adding in options for an upgraded 10 or 15 kwh charger is also a good idea.

 

[LEAFfan]

(Not saying anything negative about the LEAF with that statement, just that the Volt, while being a "bad" solution, IS well done.)

Not saying anything negative about the Volt, just that the 1.2 gallons of gasoline is 1.2 gallons too many. Now if someone could drive a Volt, and miraculously use no gasoline (35-40 miles or less, no jackrabbit starts, no steep hills or mountains, and keep it under 70 on the freeways, then it would be a green machine. :mrgreen:

 

[walterbays]

I'm surprised that the average daily miles for the LEAF (37 miles) appears to be significantly higher than the nationwide average of 31 miles per day (Google it).

Very interesting data, thanks. You might account for the difference because LEAF is just so pleasant and fun to drive, and costs next to nothing to drive, so people invent extra trips to take. (I know I do

In which case the LEAF is suitable for a lot more driving than it's detractors claim...

True.

More range means more sales.

Also true. Nissan's mileage stats only prove that among people who evaluated LEAF's capability carefully and were so sure it would work for them that they decided to invest considerable money in it, the LEAF's capability is sufficient. The DOT stats indicate that it could work for many more people.

But people don't want a car that "on average" won't leave them stranded. They want a car that won't leave them stranded. If people knew that somehow they could make the rare, unexpected, unplanned trip, then LEAF could easily have many times more sales. That assurance could take the form of more range, of fairly widespread L3 charging, of very widespread L2 charging, of faster L2 charging, of widespread roadside emergency charging assistance, of low cost ICE car rental, of public transportation that works, or most likely some mix of all of those.

 

[SanDust]

I think he's right though I might state it differently. I'd say that if the trade-off is lower prices or longer ranges Nissan will sell more Leafs by lowering the price than by increasing the range. Another way to say this is that the i-Miev will provide competition for the Leaf but the Model S won't.

My guess is that Nissan, when faced with the more range or lower price question, will try to do some of both. Assuming the next gen battery has twice the energy density I'd expect Nissan to shot for a real 100 mile range (covering 92% of daily driving) and apply the rest of the savings to price reduction or increased margins.

 

[Herm]

Now if someone could drive a Volt, and miraculously use no gasoline (35-40 miles or less, no jackrabbit starts, no steep hills or mountains, and keep it under 70 on the freeways, then it would be a green machine. :mrgreen:

As long as you stay within the range of the battery the gas engine wont come on.. you can accelerate as hard as you want, speed up to 100mph straight up a mountain and the engine wont come on.. until the battery is empty and the Volt switches mode and becomes a hybrid... perhaps you are confusing a Volt with a Prius Plug-In?. An expert hypermiler gets 70 miles of range out of the Volt's battery, but they would get nearly 140 out of a Leaf.

 

[Desertstraw]

The Leaf does in fact meet my daily needs in our metropolitan area, but I want to take long drives on weekends and use it to go in vacation. I would be happy if they would put fast chargers along major highways until better storage devices are developed.

One of the reasons that I decided to lease rather than buy was because l believe longer range vehicles will be available in three years. Despite all the disparagement, I think that the BYD which has finally gotten to this country will deliver twice the range of the Leaf as they claim. I also note that the EV1 delivered an honest 100 miles ten years ago. If Nissan wants to be in my future, they had better rethink the range problem. As one of the first buyers of the Prius, I can report that they came without cruise control because they were not needed in Japanese driving. Toyota learned quickly that American driving is different and installed cruise control within about half a year.

 

[scottf200]

Related to this thread these stats follow along with this old survey.

.
Published by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Omnibus Household Survey, or OmniStats data, were based on a household survey of 1000 randomly selected households asked about their driving habits in the previous one month (done in 2003).The entire report can be read here:
http://www.bts.gov/publications/omnistats/volume_03_issue_04/pdf/entire.pdf

Now if someone could drive a Volt, and miraculously use no gasoline (35-40 miles or less, no jackrabbit starts, no steep hills or mountains, and keep it under 70 on the freeways, then it would be a green machine. :mrgreen:

As long as you stay within the range of the battery the gas engine wont come on.. you can accelerate as hard as you want, speed up to 100mph straight up a mountain and the engine wont come on.. until the battery is empty and the Volt switches mode and becomes a hybrid... perhaps you are confusing a Volt with a Prius Plug-In?. An expert hypermiler gets 70 miles of range out of the Volt's battery, but they would get nearly 140 out of a Leaf.

Excellent point Herm on correcting the ongoing myths about the "Electric High-Speed CD mode".
Four driving modes of Chevrolet Volt.

Electric Low-Speed [in Charge-Depleting (CD) mode]: The simplest and most well-known of the Volt's four modes, this calls for the vehicle to use the charge from its 435-lb lithium-ion battery pack to power a 111-kW ac traction motor. When the traction motor turns, it transmits power to a sun gear in a planetary gear set, which turns the drive axle. Volt owners are expected to make heavy use of this mode - many will drive the car to work and back, charge it at night, and never use a drop of gasoline in the process.
Electric High-Speed [in Charge-Depleting (CD) mode]: The Volt typically hits this mode at about 70 mph. Then, the supervisory controller splits the power between the large traction motor and a smaller 54-kW generator-motor (which is still operated by the battery). The planetary gear set blends the power from the two motors and sends it to the drive axle. Even as it switches to this mode, however, the Volt still is not employing its internal combustion engine - and therefore still isn't burning any gasoline.
Extended Range Low-Speed [in Charge-Sustaining (CS) mode]: <snip>
Extended Range High-Speed [in Charge-Sustaining (CS) mode]: <snip>

 

[TomT]

So, I fall in the high mileage end of the 7 percent segment at 24.9 miles one way... Which is why the Leaf is a better choice for me than the Volt as I can't recharge at work...

Related to this thread these stats follow along with this old survey.

 

[Herm]

Everything you could possibly want to know about distance driven, the 2001 National Household Travel Survey, published in 2004.

http://nhts.ornl.gov/2001/pub/STT.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[tps]

Nissan's mileage stats only prove that among people who evaluated LEAF's capability carefully and were so sure it would work for them that they decided to invest considerable money in it, the LEAF's capability is sufficient. The DOT stats indicate that it could work for many more people.

But people don't want a car that "on average" won't leave them stranded. They want a car that won't leave them stranded. If people knew that somehow they could make the rare, unexpected, unplanned trip, then LEAF could easily have many times more sales. That assurance could take the form of more range, of fairly widespread L3 charging, of very widespread L2 charging, of faster L2 charging, of widespread roadside emergency charging assistance, of low cost ICE car rental, of public transportation that works, or most likely some mix of all of those.

+1. The current LEAF sample is somewhat skewed. People with longer range needs don't buy it because they know it won't work for them.

I favor a good quick charging network over a big battery. The main reason ICEVs work well for most drivers is because of the widespread availability of relatively inexpensive gasoline, not because of a 300 mile gas tank. If quick charging was as widely available, many drivers would have less of a problem with EVs.

 

[DaveL]

I favor a good quick charging network over a big battery. The main reason ICEVs work well for most drivers is because of the widespread availability of relatively inexpensive gasoline, not because of a 300 mile gas tank. If quick charging was as widely available, many drivers would have less of a problem with EVs.

I agree that we need to dramatically increase the L3 charging infrastructure, even more than is currently planned if the BEV is to become a common vehicle on the road.

However, the current battery range is at least 1/2 of what it will need to be in order to be widely used. Stopping for a 25 minute charge every 65-75 miles is not very pratical when taking the kids to grandma's house 180 miles away. (yes, we've made that drive every year for the past 30 years!) Nissan recommends no more than 1 L3 charge per day, which will limit the car to about 135 miles of range in the winter time. It's going to be a hard sell to convince people that 135 miles of range is all they will need.

Now if the battery was double the current capacity, then you could make that 180 mile trip with just a single L3 charge. I'm sure that it would open up a larger segement of the market as you would have to stop for a charge only every 2 hours or so.

Better yet, Nissan should offer different battery packs in the future and let the market decide how much range people are wanting and willing to pay for.

In the meantime, I'll be driving my Leaf around town and will continue taking the Prius to Grandma's place for the holidays.

 

[TomT]

If you are traveling on the freeway, it would likely be more often than every 65-75 miles since you are normally only going to charge to 80 percent or so on a QC (the last 20 percent simply takes too long) and normal freeway speeds at the legal limit eat in to your range significantly. And that doesn't even consider how many times you can actually QC safely in a day...

However, the current battery range is at least 1/2 of what it will need to be in order to be widely used. Stopping for a 25 minute charge every 65-75 miles is not very practical when taking the kids to grandma's house 180 miles away.

 

[DaveEV]

Nissan recommends no more than 1 L3 charge per day

That limit is only if you're quick charging on a daily basis - occasional multi QC use in a day is not an issue as long as battery temps stay within normal range. There are taxis in Japan getting QCd multiple times daily so I wouldn't necessarily worry about this too much.

 

[Volt3939]

...
But people don't want a car that "on average" won't leave them stranded. They want a car that won't leave them stranded. If people knew that somehow they could make the rare, unexpected, unplanned trip, [then LEAF could easily have many times more sales.] That assurance could take the form of more range, of fairly widespread L3 charging, of very widespread L2 charging, of faster L2 charging, of widespread roadside emergency charging assistance, of low cost ICE car rental, of public transportation that works, or most likely some mix of all of those.

This is precisely the thought process that goes through peoples minds when they ask me how a Volt works. Once they have grasped the concept of "limited" range, and say something like "What happens when the battery runs out?", they are like "So it has a built in battery charger that runs on gas?" I don't think the majority of people are quite ready to think about an EV as a primary car (present company excepted), even though it goes further than they normally drive.

They always come up with the "emergency" scenario, and the "I had to stop for gas on the way to the hospital" line in their thoughts becomes "I'll have to search all over town for a rental, but every place will be out due to a holiday. Then I'll run the battery down and need to be towed, and end up having a friend drive me to see my dying parents and I'll get there too late" line instead. People want to be prepared for stuff that rarely happens. Maybe blame the scout mentality...

For me, it's like having that rental car parked in your garage rather than spending time to go get it or wait for it to arrive. Just get in and go. And it works without the charging infrastructure that's not ready yet. (Hopefully soon!)
As designed, it's an interim step for those that are unwilling to stick a toe into the pool. We all know it's shallow and the water's fine, but the masses are largely ignorant of that.

BEV's for years have had people designing ICE powered generator trailers, even "pusher" trailers to extend range. (Have yet to see one on a Leaf though.) And of course the ever popular rental ICE or second car for long trips. This in response to using any gas is not "green". This is what makes the argument from Nissan that the range is fine so much marketing speech. I personally have to make drop-of-the-hat trips of 150 miles or more, and have done the math. Taking the 50MPG hybrid wins. Sometimes I need to take my pickup to haul more stuff than will fit any car, it's just whatever the situation requires. Otherwise the spare cars sit, and the plug-in is used daily. Is it "less green" than a BEV? Well, in situations that cannot currently be handled be any BEV yet it's debatable. Almost all of us will admit to the occasional use of oil-as-fuel somehow, whether it's a rental car on vacation, air travel, or even having a gardener that uses one of those awful 2-cycle leaf blowers. The idea is to use _less_, and I applaud those that have forsaken using _any_ gasoline on their daily commute. Would that everyone could do the same!

 

[DaveL]

If you are traveling on the freeway, it would likely be more often than every 65-75 miles since you are normally only going to charge to 80 percent or so on a QC (the last 20 percent simply takes too long) and normal freeway speeds at the legal limit eat in to your range significantly. And that doesn't even consider how many times you can actually QC safely in a day...

However, the current battery range is at least 1/2 of what it will need to be in order to be widely used. Stopping for a 25 minute charge every 65-75 miles is not very practical when taking the kids to grandma's house 180 miles away.

Yeah, I was being generous. Real generous!

The other thought that I had was that a bigger battery should last a lot longer even though the average drive is 30-40 miles or so. I bought my 1st Prius in 2000. Just sold it to my son with 130K miles on it and with the original battery still going strong due in large part to Toyota only allowing the middle of the SOC to be used. Now I know that the battery chemistry is completely different for the Leaf, but from everything I've read a larger battery would last longer as you would be using less % of the battery on a daily basis. Imagine charging to 70% instead of 80% and still having plenty of range.

So I agree with most here that while we understand Mark Perry making the comment for marketing reasons, hopefully he dosn't really believe it.

 

[TRONZ]

Perry is just making a point of how well the LEAF already fits the average American household. If he really wanted to get everyone's attention he should have included a vision for how Nissan is going to enable people to go far beyond the "100" mile range. How we will replace more gas miles with electric miles. This is the front line for the EV industry who's details are surely very confidential. The status quo is just that. Perry needs to link this kind of marketing talk with how we take it to the next level.

 

[JustinC]

Considering the news today that Tesla sold out of its 2012 Model S production already, I think Perry has been proven wrong. The strategy of letting the consumer decide how much range they need / can afford is the way to go.

Personally, I'd love to be able to drive from LA to SF with one QC stop in Fresno. But that requires about 300 miles of range to achieve. This would enable me to have 2 EVs (e.g. a LEAF and a Model S) instead of 1 EV and 1 ICE.

 

[davewill]

Considering the news today that Tesla sold out of its 2012 Model S production already, I think Perry has been proven wrong. ...

I don't really disagree about having choices, but Tesla's 2012 production probably isn't big enough to constitute a "market" from Nissan's point of view.