"No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Perry

[JustinC]

6500 is the number of 2012 Model S's - more than the total number of Volts that have been sold so far. Granted, not as many as the total number of LEAFS.

 

[SanDust]

6500 is the number of 2012 Model S's - more than the total number of Volts that have been sold so far. Granted, not as many as the total number of LEAFS.

You are not paying attention. He said they were sold out of 2012 production but he never said what that production would be. In fact he hasn't actually promised that they'll deliver anything. What we know is that in October of 2010 Musk said they'd produce 7000 units in 2012. In March of this year he said they'd produce 5000 units during 2012. Now he's saying the "target production" for 2012 is 5000. You see a trend?

The fact is that for all the yak-yak about an under $50K price Tesla has only committed to producing the Model S Signature Series, and that car with options will cost $90K. At that price point how much of the market is addressable? (Here's a hint. In three years Tesla sold 1800 Roadsters.)

Comparing this to Leaf or Volt sales isn't realistic. Those cars are at much lower price points and will move in much larger numbers. The Model S will compete with cars like the Porsche Panamera. If you're looking for a benchmark, the Panamera is considered to be a run away hit and it has worldwide sales of 20K units.

 

[tps]

Stopping for a 25 minute charge every 65-75 miles is not very pratical when taking the kids to grandma's house 180 miles away.

When I was a kid, grandma's house was 70 miles away, all 2-lane road (US 50), so we would have been good with the LEAF so long as we could charge it at the far end for the return...

 

[Desertstraw]

"Stopping for a 25 minute charge every 65-75 miles is not very pratical when taking the kids to grandma's house 180 miles away."

If you go 60 miles between charges at 60 mph, easy on interstates, and then charge for 25 min, it is equivalent to a speed of about 42 mph. Driving for about eight hours means that you travel 336 miles a day. This is perfectly satisfactory for vacation travel. I know people who limit their distance to 300 per day with their gas guzzlers.

Driving the distance from LA to NY, 2778 miles, would take about 66 hours or 8 days. If, like some people that I have known, you partner with one or more others and drive straight through, it would take less than three days.

For me, these capabilities would enhance the value of my Leaf.

 

[tps]

For me, these capabilities would enhance the value of my Leaf.

I'd certainly attempt the trip from Philadelphia to Cincinnati in the LEAF if I knew that I could quick charge it along the way. Currently, I takes one long 10 hour day, but I'd split it into two more leasurely days in the LEAF. I think PA has a project to put charging stations in at the Service Plazas along the Turnpike out for proposals, at this point.

 

[surfingslovak]

Mark Gorrie wrote a pretty balanced article on this very topic on wheels.ca and echoed a lot of the sentiment voiced in this thread.

“The paradox here is that current technology targeted at the mass market can usually accomplish a range … twice as far as the typical American drives each work day,” says Craig Giffi, Deloitte’s vice-chair and automotive practice leader. “Yet, for some reason, (that) is still unacceptable to most consumers.”

http://www.wheels.ca/newsFeatures/article/800924" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[nosuchthing]

Bigger battery? Absolutely. I'd but one today if it was available. 6.6 charger? Getting it in 2013.

My commute is 84 freeway miles. Leaf will make only about 70. I bought into this talk of 100 mile car. I figured 100 must mean at least 84. It does not. Let me quickly add that I love that car.

My big boss found out I was plugging in at the dock and immediatly kicked me out. I did pay for the juice so it wasn't about that. Now my Leaf looks pretty sitting in my driveway and wife takes it out here and there. Barely 40 miles a day. It sucks big time. I bought the car to commute to work.

Toyota announced their 1000 km battery will be out between 2015 and 2020. I'm hoping for 2015. I need that bigger battery now.

So, let us stop fooling oursleves about the battery size. The more miles the merrier. If I had 90 grand laying around it's Tesla time--big time.

 

[TonyWilliams]

My commute is 84 freeway miles.

Not sure what state you're in, but you could drive 50-55mph with the trucks in the slow lane on the freeway here in California. That would do it.

 

[solartim]

My commute is 84 freeway miles.

Not sure what state you're in, but you could drive 50-55mph with the trucks in the slow lane on the freeway here in California. That would do it.

Can you remember the last time you saw a truck going 55 in the slow lane? How about the cars and trucks with trailers? I sure would like to see those enforced. Get us out of this financial hole.

 

[EVDrive]

When I need to go 85 miles on one charge I travel 48 - 52 mph on the freeway and everyone passes me. Everyone. Sometimes people pull behind me to look at the car for a minute or two then get the need to speed past. It actually feels pretty dangerous to go this slow but I would rather go slow against the grain of traffic than go spend more money with big oil.

I wouldn't mind at all stopping every hour/hour and a half for 30 minutes to QC the car on a 400 mile trip. It would give me plenty of time to catch up on the blogs I like to read like this one, Huffpost, ABG and green car reports. That being said, I am looking forward to buying a second EV that goes 150-200 miles on the freeway and has a QC port. Then I can ditch the prius.

My commute is 84 freeway miles.

Not sure what state you're in, but you could drive 50-55mph with the trucks in the slow lane on the freeway here in California. That would do it.

Can you remember the last time you saw a truck going 55 in the slow lane? How about the cars and trucks with trailers? I sure would like to see those enforced. Get us out of this financial hole.

 

[LEAFfan]

Now if someone could drive a Volt, and miraculously use no gasoline (35-40 miles or less, no jackrabbit starts, no steep hills or mountains, and keep it under 70 on the freeways, then it would be a green machine. :mrgreen:

As long as you stay within the range of the battery the gas engine wont come on.. you can accelerate as hard as you want, speed up to 100mph straight up a mountain and the engine wont come on.. until the battery is empty and the Volt switches mode and becomes a hybrid... perhaps you are confusing a Volt with a Prius Plug-In?. An expert hypermiler gets 70 miles of range out of the Volt's battery, but they would get nearly 140 out of a Leaf.

Excellent point Herm on correcting the ongoing myths about the "Electric High-Speed CD mode".
Four driving modes of Chevrolet Volt.

Electric Low-Speed [in Charge-Depleting (CD) mode]: The simplest and most well-known of the Volt's four modes, this calls for the vehicle to use the charge from its 435-lb lithium-ion battery pack to power a 111-kW ac traction motor. When the traction motor turns, it transmits power to a sun gear in a planetary gear set, which turns the drive axle. Volt owners are expected to make heavy use of this mode - many will drive the car to work and back, charge it at night, and never use a drop of gasoline in the process.
Electric High-Speed [in Charge-Depleting (CD) mode]: The Volt typically hits this mode at about 70 mph. Then, the supervisory controller splits the power between the large traction motor and a smaller 54-kW generator-motor (which is still operated by the battery). The planetary gear set blends the power from the two motors and sends it to the drive axle. Even as it switches to this mode, however, the Volt still is not employing its internal combustion engine - and therefore still isn't burning any gasoline.
Extended Range Low-Speed [in Charge-Sustaining (CS) mode]: <snip>
Extended Range High-Speed [in Charge-Sustaining (CS) mode]: <snip>

Could you please post a link to this info. This is what GM said BEFORE the car was available for sale. My info was a recent article. I'll see if I can find the article again.

 

[leaf561]

My commute is 84 freeway miles.

Not sure what state you're in, but you could drive 50-55mph with the trucks in the slow lane on the freeway here in California. That would do it.

Would work on an emergency, but not on an everyday basis. Anything beyond 70 or 75, I won't dare to take mine. It would change if QC becomes common...

 

[SanDust]

Could you please post a link to this info.

http://vxlive.feedroom.com/feedroom/http/4000/5172/6999/7438/Lobby/default.htm (13:00-13:30)

You're confusing the PIP which is a parallel hybrid with the Volt which is serial hybrid on steroids. Even a standard serial never turns on the engine when in CD Mode and the Volt is considerably more electrified than a standard serial.

 

[LEAFfan]

Nissan recommends no more than 1 L3 charge per day

That limit is only if you're quick charging on a daily basis - occasional multi QC use in a day is not an issue as long as battery temps stay within normal range. There are taxis in Japan getting QCd multiple times daily so I wouldn't necessarily worry about this too much.

+1! Exactly! A lot of people just don't understand what Nissan is trying to say and you said it exactly the way it is. If you are taking a trip, you can safely QC up to 6 times in that day without degrading your battery pack. I've been telling people about this since June, but they just don't get it or want to believe it.

 

[LEAFfan]

If you are traveling on the freeway, it would likely be more often than every 65-75 miles since you are normally only going to charge to 80 percent or so on a QC (the last 20 percent simply takes too long)

Actually, it will be LESS than 80% if you're using a Blink QC. I set the Phoenix one to 90% and it shut off at 89% on the Blink, BUT I only had nine bars and 75-76% on my SOC gauge and it took 24 mins. When I set it to 100% to get more bars/%, it stopped at 97% after 32 MORE mins, but I did have 12 bars and 86% on the gauge. I drove home and got 13 miles on the 12th bar @ 40mph!

 

[Herm]

If you are taking a trip, you can safely QC up to 6 times in that day without degrading your battery pack. I've been telling people about this since June, but they just don't get it or want to believe it.

In cooler weather you can probably QC several thousand times with normal degradation, a few everyday.. as long as the battery does not heat up much.

You can download a SAE magazine on the Volt, very nice read.. 60 pages, 5.7MB zip file

http://pages.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/sae/10EVSD1104/offline/sae_10EVSD1104_pdf.zip" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[LEAFfan]

If you are taking a trip, you can safely QC up to 6 times in that day without degrading your battery pack. I've been telling people about this since June, but they just don't get it or want to believe it.

In cooler weather you can probably QC several thousand times with normal degradation, a few everyday.. as long as the battery does not heat up much.

It doesn't have to be just in cooler weather. When Nissan tested the QCing here, it was well over 100 degrees. It's ok to charge as long as the battery temp is out of the red.

 

[Herm]

It doesn't have to be just in cooler weather. When Nissan tested the QCing here, it was well over 100 degrees. It's ok to charge as long as the battery temp is out of the red.

It would make me nervous.. perhaps setup a fan with a water mist blowing below the Leaf.. unless water is too expensive for that in Phoenix.

 

[davewill]

I've been telling people about this since June, but they just don't get it or want to believe it.

That would be because you only have the word of a marketing dude, and there's nothing else that supports your assertion.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

Now that cold whether has set in, I'm very surprised at how much of a drain on the MPkW I'm seeing. the whether in the PNW is relatively mild, it hasn't even gotten really cold yet and I've seen a drop from 4.6 to 3.8 MPkW. For winter driving, to get 100 miles of range with any consistency, it's looking like you'd need roughly double the capacity of the current Leaf... I hate to say it but it's looking like I'm going to have to revise my 70-100 mile range I've been telling people to more like 50-100 and that's going to make the acceptance of EV's harder for many to swallow. I do see a market need for more capacity simply to maintain the minimum mileage in the winter time, that or a "block heater" to "pre-heat" the pack before commute time while the vehicle is plugged in, maybe also while charging. My understanding of the cold whether package is that the heater doesn't kick in till the battery drops well below it's optimal running temperature which likely won't help mileage much... We may need to start thinking about heating our garage or finding some other solution.

Mark Perry needs to drive in a cold climate where the car sits essentially outside in an uninsulated garage over night before he concludes what the market need on range is. With so many more Leafs out in the wild this winter, we are going to see some sobering numbers, particularly since it's impossible to run the fan without turning off the resistive heater when temperatures are below 60, the first serious design flaw I've found with the Leaf.