Should I hurry up and get a new pre-lizard LEAF?

[dgpcolorado]

IMHO, another reason not to buy a 2014 without some form of official confirmation of the Lizard battery AND its effectiveness... I would not be willing to play battery double or nothing with Nissan again...

This. It is possible that the lizard battery failed to be as heat-resistant as hoped, or had other "issues". Even if it is released and promoted as having slower heat-related degradation, it will be a couple of years before there is data from hot climate owners verifying that it is true.

Fool me once, shame on Nissan. Fool me twice, shame on me.

 

[Stoaty]

Not to get too far off topic, but have there been ANY official announcements by Nissan regarding a more heat-tolerant battery pack?

Yes. See:

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=31119" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Deleted member 770]

Not to get too far off topic, but have there been ANY official announcements by Nissan regarding a more heat-tolerant battery pack?

Yes. See:

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=31119" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well - yes and no. It is in writing, but from a blogger, not from Nissan. It's an article about what someone at Nissan said during a meeting with owners. So again, the only comment from Nissan is verbal - something easily deniable as a "misunderstanding".

As I mentioned in sentence following the above in my original comment:

I'm not talking about casual conversations with Nissan reps and marketing types, I'm talking about written announcements - something you can point at with authority and say "this is Nissan's official statement".

I have yet to see anything. I can understand their reluctance to publicize it widely, for fear of impacting sales of 2014 LEAFs on the lots already. But they should be willing to at least put out a press release on their website (or say something officially on this board) once the batteries start showing up in new vehicles (with a lowest-numbered VIN containing it, so people can tell whether the LEAF they're contemplating contains the new-technology battery.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

It's getting pretty frustrating trying to navigate a path that doesn't have me in perpetual lease payments. The original thinking was that EVs were supposed to last a lot longer than other cars but we seem to be at the other extreme. Just picking up another cheap mazda 3 is starting to look attractive, and plan on handing it down when the dust settles on EV batteries in warmer climates.

i was in your camp until I did some math. it really makes no sense at all to buy right now. I know a lot of people here and elsewhere who (deleted) justifying their decisions but sorry... its emerging technology that is literally improving daily. paying big bucks for some sort of utopian long term future plan is really insane.

now I could understand people buying 2011's because there was not the great divide in payouts like there is now. but when you can re-lease a LEAF in the $250 per month range, there simply is no math that puts a purchase ahead for all the reasons stated above

 

[TomT]

This is from the meeting I attended in Phoenix nearly a year ago... There has been nothing official since then that I am aware of...

Not to get too far off topic, but have there been ANY official announcements by Nissan regarding a more heat-tolerant battery pack?

Yes. See: http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=31119" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Mmen]

IMHO, another reason not to buy a 2014 without some form of official confirmation of the Lizard battery AND its effectiveness... I would not be willing to play battery double or nothing with Nissan again...

This. It is possible that the lizard battery failed to be as heat-resistant as hoped, or had other "issues". Even if it is released and promoted as having slower heat-related degradation, it will be a couple of years before there is data from hot climate owners verifying that it is true.

I somehow think that everything has a trade off. This lizard battery may, IMO, have a trade off in that even though it will degrade slower in warmer climates, it will prove to be less durable in colder climates, which will be a disastrous PR event. So they need to really get it right before making any public announcements.

 

[DaveEV]

I somehow think that everything has a trade off. This lizard battery may, IMO, have a trade off in that even though it will degrade slower in warmer climates, it will prove to be less durable in colder climates, which will be a disastrous PR event. So they need to really get it right before making any public announcements.

There are definitely tradeoffs, but cold weather degradation won't be one of them. Cost and performance of the pack (internal resistance or capacity for example) would be the most likely trade-offs.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

It's getting pretty frustrating trying to navigate a path that doesn't have me in perpetual lease payments. The original thinking was that EVs were supposed to last a lot longer than other cars but we seem to be at the other extreme. Just picking up another cheap mazda 3 is starting to look attractive, and plan on handing it down when the dust settles on EV batteries in warmer climates.

i was in your camp until I did some math. it really makes no sense at all to buy right now. I know a lot of people here and elsewhere who (deleted) justifying their decisions but sorry... its emerging technology that is literally improving daily. paying big bucks for some sort of utopian long term future plan is really insane.

now I could understand people buying 2011's because there was not the great divide in payouts like there is now. but when you can re-lease a LEAF in the $250 per month range, there simply is no math that puts a purchase ahead for all the reasons stated above

I don't think it's quite so cut-and-dry for all cases. In this case, the OP was also considering buying out his lease (rather than just buying a brand-new car).

It's different for everybody, but here's a really rough rundown of my math for my 2012:

I could buy out the lease for about $17k (including interest for financing) or I can lease a new car for maybe $250/mo for another 3 years. With say $2k down, that's $2k + 36*$250 = $11k.

The difference after 3 years is $6k and whether I still have a car.

So in order for leasing to be cheaper, the Leaf has to be worth less than $6k at 6 years old and (given my driving patterns) about 50k miles. Is that possible? Yes. Is it likely? Probably not.

This also assumes that I want to trade in the car after 6 years. If I keep it yet another 3 years, the ABSOLUTE MOST it could depreciate is a total of $17k (over the six years). Another 3 year lease will probably cost in the $10k range.

Assuming that the car will work for me for 9-10 years (it really should), my best option financially absolutely is buying and not leasing.

 

[Weatherman]

If you live south of the 35th parallel, it just doesn't make any sense to own a LEAF.

What are you going to do when you approach the 5 year or 60,000 mile mark and are down to 9 bars and have about a 50-mile-max effective range? Sorry. No new battery under warranty. And Nissan won't even give you a price to buy a new battery if you wanted to. For a lot of people, the car would become, essentially, worthless.

 

[evnow]

It's getting pretty frustrating trying to navigate a path that doesn't have me in perpetual lease payments.

As long as those payments are much smaller than financing payments, it is great.

I don't see how I could have a brand new car for $125 a month I'm paying now if I had bought my '11.

If I pay something like $200 a month I'll still be better than buying and keeping the car for 10 years.

New Leaf : $25k post tax credit
Leased Leaf = 10 * 200 * 12 = $24k

 

[GetOffYourGas]

If I pay something like $200 a month I'll still be better than buying and keeping the car for 10 years.

New Leaf : $25k post tax credit
Leased Leaf = 10 * 200 * 12 = $24k

You really got a deal to lease a car with $0 down and $200/mo? For an SV? (S is less than $25k post tax credit) Around here, it's $2k down and $200/month for the Leaf S.

 

[dgalvan]

it really makes no sense at all to buy right now.
. . . there simply is no math that puts a purchase ahead for all the reasons stated above

Here is my math that put a purchase ahead of a lease, which is why I bought:

2014 Leaf S with Charger package.

MSRP: 31,400 (in Los Angeles)
Sale Price: $28,413 (after negotiating down using Costco prices and TrueCar prices)

--------------------
Buy:
-$2500 Nissan Cash back
-$2500 CA Rebate (will receive in September)
-$7500 Fed Tax credit (will receive next year with tax refund)
+$2,956.37 Sales tax, destination charge, license registration fees, documentary fees, etc.


Net out of pocket cost after car is paid off: (6 years)
$18,869.37

0% financing over 72 months. (a zero percent loan is essentially free money)

-------------------
Lease:
Reduced the capitalized cost by $8200 (this includes Nissan's $7500 tax credit passed on to the consumer, plus $700 just to sweeten the deal.)
Resulting in a lease offer of:

$3500 drive-off (including a down payment, all fees, tax on the passed-on fed tax credit, etc.)
$188/month 36 months (including taxes etc.)

Out of pocket cost after 3 years:
$10,368

-$2500 CA rebate

Net out of pocket cost after 3 years including rebate:
$7,768

Residual (cost to buy after lease is up in 3 years):
$13,000.

Net cost of leasing for 3 years and then purchasing (writing a check for the residual):
$7,768 + $13000 =
$20,768
-------------

So, to sum up:
Net out of pocket cost to PURCHASE:
$18,869.37

Net out of pocket cost to LEASE for 3 years and THEN purchase:
$20,768

Savings of purchasing up front compared to leasing-then-buying:
$1898.63

-----------------------

Other point:
--If you didn't want to purchase the car at the end of the lease, then your costs for the leaf would be only $7,768 over the 3 years. But after that you will probably get another lease or purchase a new car. If you are getting another lease on an EV, it's unlikely to be as good a deal as current leases, especially since the current tax incentives and rebates will diminish. So your total cost after another 3 years will be at LEAST double the 3 year out-of pocket, so $15,536 total out of pocket after 6 years. Lease a third time and you are at LEAST at 3x the original lease ($23,304) after 9 years, where as someone who purchased up front has only spent $18,869.37 and finished paying 3 years prior.

--If the battery degrades, then at least I know I have the option of Nissan's $100/month battery lease program. Say I activate that 6 years from now: $100/month is better than any lease I could get on a new EV, and the car will be paid off by then. With other maintenance being minimal (tires, brakes, coolant), paying $100/month to extend the life of the paid off car seems a better option than a new lease. At least, for my driving needs.

--Also, Leases either have a 12k or 15k mile-per-year cap, with additional miles above those limits coming at a cost per mile. I'm 45 days in, and I've already put >2000 miles on my Leaf, and at this rate I expect I'll be putting over 16k miles per year on the car. So the math above, in my case, works out even better for a purchase instead of a lease. (Since my Leaf costs 3.5 cents per mile to operate, compared to my bigger ICE, a 2003 Hyundai Santa Fe, which costs about 17 cents-per-mile, the Leaf has become our new "local" family car, taking over more driving tasks than the compact car it replaced. Hence we are driving it far more often than we had originally thought, and purchasing allows us to not have to worry about the Lease mile limits.)

 

[astricklin]

one thing that is critical to your calculation here is IF you qualify for the entire $7500 federal rebate.

I pulled this explanation from another site.
"The federal incentive is usually referred to as a flat $7,500 credit, but it's only worth $7,500 to someone whose tax bill at the end of the year is $7,500 or more. If the buyer of a Volt, a Nissan Leaf or other eligible vehicle owes, for example, only $5,000 in income tax for a particular year, that's all the tax credit will be. Uncle Sam's not writing a refund check for the other $2,500. And an unused portion of the credit can't be applied against the following year's taxes."

In this case, if you do not have 7500 in tax liability for the year the it makes sense to lease and then purchase as the lease has the $7500 taken off the top. With a purchase you have to make car payments based on the purchase price before the $7500 rebate and not after.

 

[TomT]

You do know that this program has actually never come of fruition, right, and in fact may never do so in the U.S....

--If the battery degrades, then at least I know I have the option of Nissan's $100/month battery lease program.

 

[astricklin]

Although Nissan has yet to actually implement this in the U.S. Battery leases appear to be quite commonplace in Europe. Also, Smart in the US does have an active battery lease program that does have a minimum capacity guarantee.

You do know that this program has actually never come of fruition, right, and in fact may never do so...

--If the battery degrades, then at least I know I have the option of Nissan's $100/month battery lease program.

 

[uwskier20]

I bought my '11 primarily as a commuter. I have been annoyed at the battery degradation (which has been relatively slow here in the PNW; 81% SOH after 54K miles), but with a 25-mile commute each way and charging at work (albeit 110V), I can keep going for quite some time on my battery. I'm hoping that, by the time I'm ready for a new battery, Nissan steps up. If not, I'm willing to bet third parties will.

 

[evnow]

--If you didn't want to purchase the car at the end of the lease, then your costs for the leaf would be only $7,768 over the 3 years. But after that you will probably get another lease or purchase a new car. If you are getting another lease on an EV, it's unlikely to be as good a deal as current leases, especially since the current tax incentives and rebates will diminish.

But it'll likely be an ev with longer range. That trumps all other calculations.

 

[TomT]

When the tax incentives and rebates finally run their course, which they invariably will, it will be interesting to see the affect on EV and PHEV sales. Manufacturers will likely have to offer their own rebates or drop the prices to keep the pipeline flowing...

If you are getting another lease on an EV, it's unlikely to be as good a deal as current leases, especially since the current tax incentives and rebates will diminish.

 

[dgalvan]

one thing that is critical to your calculation here is IF you qualify for the entire $7500 federal rebate.

Correct. In my case my liability has been greater than $7500 the last 2 years and I expect it will be not much different next year, so I'm confident in assuming I'll get the full $7500 rebate.

For anyone who is wondering if this will be the case for you, just look at your 1040 form from a previous tax year, line 61. If the number on line 61 is higher than $7500, and you expect it will be again next year, then you can expect to get the full $7500 if you purchase.
This thread covers this topic with good explanations from ebill3 and planet4ever:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=12427&start=10" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In this case, if you do not have 7500 in tax liability for the year the it makes sense to lease and then purchase as the lease has the $7500 taken off the top. With a purchase you have to make car payments based on the purchase price before the $7500 rebate and not after.

Leasing-then-purchasing does get you the $7500 off up front, but at least in my case, there were simply more total incentives available for purchasing rather than leasing:
For Leasing: $8200 reduced capitalized cost from Nissan (which includes the $7500), plus the $2500 CA rebate added up to $10,700 in incentives total.
For Purchase: $7500 Federal, $2500 Nissan Cash Back, plus the $2500 CA rebate added up to $12,500 in incentives total.

Another down side to leasing and THEN purchasing (as opposed to just purchasing up front) is that you would likely only get a 2% interest rate when you finance the residual value in the lease. If you purchase up front and have good credit, you can probably get a 0% interest rate. (Free money!)

 

[dgalvan]

--If you didn't want to purchase the car at the end of the lease, then your costs for the leaf would be only $7,768 over the 3 years. But after that you will probably get another lease or purchase a new car. If you are getting another lease on an EV, it's unlikely to be as good a deal as current leases, especially since the current tax incentives and rebates will diminish.

But it'll likely be an ev with longer range. That trumps all other calculations.

Not if that longer range EV costs significantly more.
The scuttlebutt on greencarreports suggest that Nissan is considering offering longer-range batteries in the 2016 or 2017 model years. . . as OPTIONS that likely come with a higher price tag.

Also, how much range is enough varies dependent on your intended use. Longer range is highly important for single-car families. But many people (myself included) are open to electric-only cars because we are two-car families anyway, so we have no problem having a limited range electric commuter as long as we also have a long-range vehicle for our second car.

Also, for those who are getting Leafs for their environmental impact: what's the environmental impact of doubling the production rate building cars because you want a new one every 3 years, instead of going with a PHEV or HEV that lasts you 10+ years, or making the Leaf you purchase last that long with battery replacements?