TSLA corporate outlook

[danrjones]

Yeah or breaking and then nobody can use the spot.

In other news, updates for the Tesla vehicles for 2022:

https://electrek.co/2021/12/08/tesla-model-3-y-new-features-changes-leak/

 

[LeftieBiker]

"interior cabin radar"...?

 

[danrjones]

"interior cabin radar"...?

No clue.

Security feature?

 

[johnlocke]

"interior cabin radar"...?

No clue.

Security feature?

Passenger detection.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I'd just as soon not play "radar range" with my body.

 

[gcrouse]

I think Tesla is overvalued as part of a larger trend towards overly optimistic investment in EV companies. (Like Rivian's IPO when they had barely built any vehicles, and the swarm of investment in Lordstown and Kandi). There's been a number of allegations of cooking the books which is a touch of a concern. (No capital expenditures listed in financials while building their factory in China?) Elon's bizarre outbursts are a distraction tactic - they always happen right around the time bad press is about to come out for Tesla.

As far as fundamentals go - there's no doubt Tesla currently has the lead in battery and drivetrain tech and leads in market share currently. Their own built out charging network is also a huge plus.

However on the flipside:

1. their build quality is highly inconsistent, with warranty claims due to it misreported as "goodwill."

2. Their much hyped full self driving really isn't any different than any other SAE2 level system on the market and some experts have a negative outlook on the possibility of it hitting SAE5 with competition in that area like Waymo being leaps and bounds ahead. In terms of Automakers, Mercedes has recently been the first to crack SAE3.

3. They are starting to lose market share as other manufacturers are adding EV models.

My take is that the EV lead is currently Tesla's to lose with everyone else getting into the game and pumping large amounts of money into investment.

Their best possibility is fixing their current deficiencies, maintaining investment in battery tech, introducing more models, changing strategies on SAE automation of driver assistance, and adding a few more showrooms to key areas where people are unlikely to order a car they can't test drive first.

The most likely possibility is that they get slowly overshadowed by the legacy automakers and still remain a fairly good presence in the market, not unlike AMC back through 1954-1974.

The worst case scenario is that Musk continues to over promise and under deliver on key items leading to a slow but steady decline as other companies offer similar or better vehicles and features. (In US, the SUV/Truck market is key.). Their first announced and continually delayed Cybertruck is a great example. They could have gotten to the market first, but now Rivian is the first to have vehicles rolling off the line. (Higher price point) and Ford is soon to follow with a more recognizable and best selling branded truck at a similar price point entering the EV field and Chevy's Silverado EV soon to follow.

Like Nissan having the first widely available non "compliance car" on the market, Tesla I think is at the crossroads of maintaining their lead or slowly fading into the background as another more minor player.

 

[WetEV]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/12/27/self-driving-car-big-tech-monopoly-525867

When playing Monopoly, remember that one person wins big. Everyone else goes broke.

It's not just Tesla playing.

“These companies have an amount of data on us that they shouldn’t have, and they have a history of not using it in responsible ways,” said Katharine Trendacosta of the digital civil liberties group Electronic Frontier Foundation. “They have a history of going back on promises they have made about that data.”

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

Tesla has become like Apple from a brand perspective. They could raze large swaths of the rainforest and hunt dolphins and the stock will still head up..

It will take something pretty shocking to knock them off their throne. And if it funds getting people to Mars, I guess I am kind of ok with it.

 

[SageBrush]

Tesla has become like Apple from a brand perspective.

Did Apple grow 20% a quarter for 2021, with even higher growth rates projected for 2022/3 ?

 

[gcrouse]

Tesla has become like Apple from a brand perspective.

Did Apple grow 20% a quarter for 2021, with even higher growth rates projected for 2022/3 ?

It's not a big secret that EV company stocks are largely disconnected from market fundamentals due to Wall Street speculation. Tesla's global market share fell 21% this year. Tesla is a strong brand, but it either has to adapt, deliver on promises, or it will fade into the background as an AMC type competitor.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4453462-teslas-global-ev-market-share-fell-21-percent-so-far-in-2021

Heck, even Rivian's IPO was insane with the money raised for a company that had produced probably less than 100 vehicles at the time.

 

[Nubo]

....
It's not a big secret that EV company stocks are largely disconnected from market fundamentals due to Wall Street speculation.
...

Just like they were divorced from reality in 2012 prior to the massive short-squeeze. Pro or con, there's something about electric vehicles which gets people excited.

 

[SageBrush]

Tesla's global market share fell 21% this year.

Time for some Arithmetic review:

If Tesla grows 80% but the EV market grows 100%, does Tesla's marketshare increase or decrease ?

 

[WetEV]

Tesla's global market share fell 21% this year.

Time for some Arithmetic review:

If Tesla grows 80% but the EV market grows 100%, does Tesla's marketshare increase or decrease ?

Ah yes, remember that Tesla is playing Monopoly.

 

[gcrouse]

Tesla's global market share fell 21% this year.

Time for some Arithmetic review:

If Tesla grows 80% but the EV market grows 100%, does Tesla's marketshare increase or decrease ?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketshare.asp


I'm not sure you understand how market share works.

You can look at other numbers here, it's pretty well documented Tesla is losing global market share: https://www.google.com/amp/s/insideevs.com/news/544766/world-top-oem-sales-2021q1q3/amp/

But if we are going off of your oversimplified model - if the overall market for something grows 100% and your company only grows 80% relative to the market - you have lost 20% of your market share.

 

[gcrouse]

....
It's not a big secret that EV company stocks are largely disconnected from market fundamentals due to Wall Street speculation.
...

Just like they were divorced from reality in 2012 prior to the massive short-squeeze. Pro or con, there's something about electric vehicles which gets people excited.

True. If I'm remembering correctly Fisher and Aptera were a couple of the names that were floating around quite a bit then?

 

[SageBrush]

But if we are going off of your oversimplified model - if the overall market for something grows 100% and your company only grows 80% relative to the market - you have lost 20% of your market share.

That is correct. For that case (the one that Tesla is in, by the way), do you think the Tesla bulls are worried ?

You many want to compare the Tesla growth trajectory to your fav EV manufacturer, just for giggles

 

[gcrouse]

But if we are going off of your oversimplified model - if the overall market for something grows 100% and your company only grows 80% relative to the market - you have lost 20% of your market share.

That is correct. For that case (the one that Tesla is in, by the way), do you think the Tesla bulls are worried ?

You many want to compare the Tesla growth trajectory to your fav EV manufacturer, just for giggles

Bulls, by their definition aren't worried - that's precisely what makes them bullish. I laid out a pretty thorough projection on possibilities for Tesla based on certain possibilities as i saw it elsewhere in the thread.

I don't really have a per se favorite ev manufacturer. I advocate for electric cars in general but my consumer preferences are highly susceptible to whatever will maximize my tax deductions.

 

[SageBrush]

Bulls, by their definition aren't worried - that's precisely what makes them bullish.

Circular reasoning -- is that the best you can do ?
People like me that were very bullish in 2020 and and neutral to somewhat bearish now don't exist in your world ?

If you spent less time trying to justify your preconceptions and lifestyle and used it to objectively look at the world around you, reality might seep in.

 

[gcrouse]

Bulls, by their definition aren't worried - that's precisely what makes them bullish.

Circular reasoning -- is that the best you can do ?
People like me that were very bullish in 2020 and and neutral to somewhat bearish now don't exist in your world ?

If you spent less time trying to justify your preconceptions and lifestyle and used it to objectively look at the world around you, reality might seep in.

You asked a pointless rhetorical question about whether Tesla bulls were worried. That's a pretty self evident answer. Bulls generally aren't worried. That's why they rate the stocks a buy or hold. Bears rate sell or short the stock.

If you want to have some form or function of meaningful discussion about the fundamentals of market outlook for Tesla - by all means, critique my earlier post with my outlines of pros/cons/predictions or come up with something with some form of substance for discussion.

 

[SageBrush]

You asked a pointless rhetorical question about whether Tesla bulls were worried.

No, I asked you if a 80% CAGR and a dropping market share would worry a bull, as in change their bullish outlook. The obvious answer is of course not. So someone like me must have other reasons. And this entire repartee was in response to your posting a drop in Tesla worldwide marketshare out of context as if it explained anything, or was in any way useful in estimating Tesla's future stock performance or valuation or earnings.

A clue for you: it does not

Enough. You are welcome to the last word here. I return you to the ignore bucket.