TSLA corporate outlook

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

You're just trolling at this point. Demand evaporated?? I don't think so. Paused due to loss of incentives and pricing fiascos? Sounds more likely. This is my speculation based on current sales.

The data is out there. Lead times have shrunk to almost nothing, even at barely making 5k/week. Yep, incentives are gone. They aren't coming back. They are going to lose more incentives next quarter.

Model 3 market share in premium sedans has gone down about 50% in Q1 from what it was Q4.

But the company is still poised for massive growth.

It's been poised for massive growth for years. It's currently down from its 2014 peak. Compare this to real tech companies that actually have growth.

 

[Nubo]

Tesla's advantage ultimately doesn't lie in its vehicles. Any other major manufacturer can produce vehicles of equivalent performance when it becomes economically propitious to do so. And they can produce them more efficiently with better quality control and fewer expensive quirks. This will quickly overcome Tesla's initial advantage of audacity.

Tesla may or may not catch up in manufacturing expertise and become a long-term mainstream automobile manufacturer, but again this isn't their advantage.

One Tesla advantage is their quick-charging network. No other manufacturer has anything like it nor do we see any glimmer of such such ambition in the other manufacturers.

The other Tesla advantage is the battery Gigafactories. It's never been a secret that electric motors are preferable to internal combustion engines for moving cars along. Since the earliest days of automobiles it's simply been a question of better batteries in sufficient quantity.

Tesla is already where it needs to be regarding "the vision". It's becoming time for Musk to move along and let the efficiency experts move in and work on removing "the stupid".

 

[jlv]

As an investor I see a lot of opportunity in a Tesla truck because of the massive potential in fleet sales. Ford appears to be on track to beat them to that market, and since Ford already dominates the truck market there's little opportunity for Tesla to invade it. We'll see which company gets to market first, but this market is a sleeping giant that noone talks about.

And there was just that news yesterday about Ford investing in Rivian.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/25/why-ford-is-investing-500-million-in-electric-truc.aspx

 

[webb14leafs]

As an investor I see a lot of opportunity in a Tesla truck because of the massive potential in fleet sales. Ford appears to be on track to beat them to that market, and since Ford already dominates the truck market there's little opportunity for Tesla to invade it. We'll see which company gets to market first, but this market is a sleeping giant that noone talks about.

And there was just that news yesterday about Ford investing in Rivian.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/25/why-ford-is-investing-500-million-in-electric-truc.aspx

That's why I brought this up. I can't imagine Ford actually getting a truck out by 2020, but even 2021 would probably make them first to market.

 

[webb14leafs]

Tesla's advantage ultimately doesn't lie in its vehicles. Any other major manufacturer can produce vehicles of equivalent performance when it becomes economically propitious to do so. And they can produce them more efficiently with better quality control and fewer expensive quirks. This will quickly overcome Tesla's initial advantage of audacity.

Tesla may or may not catch up in manufacturing expertise and become a long-term mainstream automobile manufacturer, but again this isn't their advantage.

One Tesla advantage is their quick-charging network. No other manufacturer has anything like it nor do we see any glimmer of such such ambition in the other manufacturers.

The other Tesla advantage is the battery Gigafactories. It's never been a secret that electric motors are preferable to internal combustion engines for moving cars along. Since the earliest days of automobiles it's simply been a question of better batteries in sufficient quantity.

Tesla is already where it needs to be regarding "the vision". It's becoming time for Musk to move along and let the efficiency experts move in and work on removing "the stupid".

I'm not so sure that Tesla doesn't have more of a moat than everyone thinks. I don't know if anyone else has figured out how to make these cars and not sell them at a loss. Tesla is making an EV that has comparable auto margins at around $38K (this is based on tear down speculations, so it's purely a "slightly educated guess"). What Tesla is doing is absolutely blowing everyone else away. They're on track to sell close to 300,000 EVs this year. Will anyone else reach 30,000? Having this big of a lead deserves some respect.

Good point about the batteries. The recent happenings with Panasonic are a little concerning though.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

As an investor I see a lot of opportunity in a Tesla truck because of the massive potential in fleet sales. Ford appears to be on track to beat them to that market, and since Ford already dominates the truck market there's little opportunity for Tesla to invade it. We'll see which company gets to market first, but this market is a sleeping giant that noone talks about.

And there was just that news yesterday about Ford investing in Rivian.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/25/why-ford-is-investing-500-million-in-electric-truc.aspx

That's why I brought this up. I can't imagine Ford actually getting a truck out by 2020, but even 2021 would probably make them first to market.

Major mans have been very laggy. But there also won't be a tesla pickup in this timeline

 

[webb14leafs]

My opinion is that: The Tesla Bulls are way out in left field, the Tesla Bears are way out in right field. Both are making some good points, and both are way off on others points. Reality isn't going to be kind to either of them. It never is.

TSLA has shed >1/3rd of its value since December.

To your earlier point--if TSLA has to start being valued as a car company the stock is going to get absolutely smashed, if it is valued by same fundamentals that influence toyota, GM, VW

If TSLA is a car company, what kind of car company? If Tesla was a high margin high sales price luxury and performance car company (like Ferrari, but bigger), might have a rather higher PE than a much larger high volume high sales (GM clone) car company. in both cases, the price might not decline long term. Might not rise either.

Great Question!! Luxury car profits are less dependent on macro-economic conditions. There's also much less inventory that the manufacturers have to take a loss on when the market suddenly turns. Tesla is an odd ball in this sense. If most of their sales and revenue comes from a $37K car, but the bulk of their "earnings" are from true luxury models, what do we make of them? Should they have a P/E similar to Porsche or GM???? I'm not sure??

 

[webb14leafs]

And there was just that news yesterday about Ford investing in Rivian.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/25/why-ford-is-investing-500-million-in-electric-truc.aspx

That's why I brought this up. I can't imagine Ford actually getting a truck out by 2020, but even 2021 would probably make them first to market.

Major mans have been very laggy. But there also won't be a tesla pickup in this timeline

Hey we agree on something!!!

 

[lorenfb]

Tesla has four more days to reach the necessary 30K monthly average delivery rate reach to 300K for 2019. That's an average
production rate of 7.5K per week (~ 60K deliveries Q1). How's that M3 tent production line doing? Are M3s shipping from Giga yet?
Again, no real hope from MS/MX to offset expected marginal M3 demand.

 

[jlv]

Demand has evaporated on that, so that won't work.

"You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means"
https://insideevs.com/news/346479/tesla-model-3-top-selling-europe/

 

[webb14leafs]

Tesla has four more days to reach the necessary 30K monthly average delivery rate reach to 300K for 2019. That's an average
production rate of 7.5K per week (~ 60K deliveries Q1). How's that M3 tent production line doing? Are M3s shipping from Giga yet?
Again, no real hope from MS/MX to offset expected marginal M3 demand.

Why do you use the term "necessary"?

 

[lorenfb]

Wonder if we break sub $240 today.

Your wondering over! It's at 235 @ 10:00.

 

[lorenfb]

Tesla has four more days to reach the necessary 30K monthly average delivery rate reach to 300K for 2019. That's an average
production rate of 7.5K per week (~ 60K deliveries Q1). How's that M3 tent production line doing? Are M3s shipping from Giga yet?
Again, no real hope from MS/MX to offset expected marginal M3 demand.

Why do you use the term "necessary"?

OK, then let's say Tesla continues the same Q1 run rate of about 60K per quarter for Q2 & Q3. Then for Q4 Tesla needs to deliver
120K to achieve "Elon's goal" of 300K for 2019. Is that a more realistic delivery goal for corporate planning? Anyway, it's wishful
thinking from Elon that 300K is achievable for 2019, given weak M3 demand.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Demand has evaporated on that, so that won't work.

"You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means"
https://insideevs.com/news/346479/tesla-model-3-top-selling-europe/

'grats, that's like being the best selling typewriter.

At ~5k/week now they are already able to meet demand in north america. Once the backlog in Europe is hit due to just opening there it's likely to be the same again. Lead times are already shrinking.

TSLA is getting thoroughly bludgeoned today. It's at a two year low.

Send me more links about how it's beating compliance cars from companies that don't even care about EV and why that matters.

Looks like robust demand to me!

Maybe you guys are starting to figure out why the big dogs have put so little attention into EV.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

, it's wishful
thinking from Elon that 300K is achievable for 2019, given weak M3 demand.

Part and parcel.

Who has a 300k tow capacity (not a typo--yes 300,000 lbs) pickup truck coming out?
Who has a 1M FSD robo fleet coming next year?
Who makes better chips their first time around than nVidia?
Who makes vehicles that appreciate in value?
Who lets you buy their car and generate $30k/year from it as it drives itself?

The answer to all these questions is:

Tesla.

Source:

Statements from Elon Musk

Anybody who can read my post and still is long Tsla has a screw or ten loose. Because as @*#&ing insane it is to write it, literally everything I just said has been claimed by their CEO. I can't even pick a favorite. They are all so absolutely absurd.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Wonder if we break sub $240 today.

Your wondering over! It's at 235 @ 10:00.

Yep, it's starting to look like the firewall put up by wide-eyed internet bloggers and redditors isn't enough to actually support this fairy tale at current valuation.

 

[webb14leafs]

Demand has evaporated on that, so that won't work.

"You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means"
https://insideevs.com/news/346479/tesla-model-3-top-selling-europe/

Thanks for the link. That trend in EV car sales in europe is pretty amazing. The trendline is almost straight up!!

It looks like Tesla has an opportunity to sell over 100,000 model 3s in western europe alone. I wonder if that includes the roughly 12000 that were in transit at the end of the quarter?

 

[webb14leafs]

, it's wishful
thinking from Elon that 300K is achievable for 2019, given weak M3 demand.

Part and parcel.

Who has a 300k tow capacity (not a typo--yes 300,000 lbs) pickup truck coming out?
Who has a 1M FSD robo fleet coming next year?
Who makes better chips their first time around than nVidia?
Who makes vehicles that appreciate in value?
Who lets you buy their car and generate $30k/year from it as it drives itself?

The answer to all these questions is:

Tesla.

Source:

Statements from Elon Musk

Anybody who can read my post and still is long Tsla has a screw or ten loose. Because as @*#&ing insane it is to write it, literally everything I just said has been claimed by their CEO. I can't even pick a favorite. They are all so absolutely absurd.

How is it any worse than Toyota exec saying they'll have a solid state battery car by 2020? Or Ford CEO saying they'll have an EV truck on the market by 2020? Really don't have to believe any of those things.

Yes, there is a leap of faith involved with investing in this company, just as there is with every new technology. You're arguments are valid, and I don't discount them. You're basically saying there's a strong chance I could lose all of my investment in Tesla. YOU'RE RIGHT!!!!! And I'm okay with that scenario. You shouldn't invest in companies like Tesla if you're not prepared to lose it all. But, there is also a relatively strong chance that in 5 years Tesla is selling over 1.5 million cars per year at average margins that exceed rivals. Plus $250K semi trucks at ridiculous margins. Plus utility scale energy storage systems at ridiculous margins. All combining for 20 billion dollars/year in EARNINGS. Feel free to call me crazy, but I think this scenario is more likely than Tesla going to zero. I would say the worst case scenario is they get bought buy another company for $100/share. I'm okay with that too.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

, it's wishful
thinking from Elon that 300K is achievable for 2019, given weak M3 demand.

Part and parcel.

Who has a 300k tow capacity (not a typo--yes 300,000 lbs) pickup truck coming out?
Who has a 1M FSD robo fleet coming next year?
Who makes better chips their first time around than nVidia?
Who makes vehicles that appreciate in value?
Who lets you buy their car and generate $30k/year from it as it drives itself?

The answer to all these questions is:

Tesla.

Source:

Statements from Elon Musk

Anybody who can read my post and still is long Tsla has a screw or ten loose. Because as @*#&ing insane it is to write it, literally everything I just said has been claimed by their CEO. I can't even pick a favorite. They are all so absolutely absurd.

How is it any worse than Toyota exec saying they'll have a solid state battery car by 2020? Or Ford CEO saying they'll have an EV truck on the market by 2020? Really don't have to believe any of those things.

You're practicing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

One guy makes a massive, huge number of insane claims, and it's the same as a company being off about a timeline or two on somebody nobody seems to care about anyway.

I'm saying there is a VERY good chance you could lose it all with Tsla.

The wise way to invest in a company with a growth story is take heed of the risk. Nobody long at tesla $300 was doing that. They were valuing it like it had already proven it can work. It still can't. The company still cannot make money, many years later. It can burn it. It's very good at that. This stock is still way overvalued even now as plumbs new depths for the past year or two and is a dollar or two from breaking $230. $230 is not representative of systemic risk.

Musk may have exhausted what goodwill remains among the heavies.

 

[GRA]

Part and parcel.

Who has a 300k tow capacity (not a typo--yes 300,000 lbs) pickup truck coming out?
Who has a 1M FSD robo fleet coming next year?
Who makes better chips their first time around than nVidia?
Who makes vehicles that appreciate in value?
Who lets you buy their car and generate $30k/year from it as it drives itself?

The answer to all these questions is:

Tesla.

Source:

Statements from Elon Musk

Anybody who can read my post and still is long Tsla has a screw or ten loose. Because as @*#&ing insane it is to write it, literally everything I just said has been claimed by their CEO. I can't even pick a favorite. They are all so absolutely absurd.

How is it any worse than Toyota exec saying they'll have a solid state battery car by 2020? Or Ford CEO saying they'll have an EV truck on the market by 2020? Really don't have to believe any of those things.

You're practicing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

One guy makes a massive, huge number of insane claims, and it's the same as a company being off about a timeline or two on somebody nobody seems to care about anyway. <snip>

More importantly, Toyota and the other companies working on solid-state batteries are trying to develop and commercialize a new technology, and nobody expects rock-solid schedules for that - there are too many unknown-unknowns, to use a Rumsfeldism. Tesla is trying to produce cars in mass-market numbers, with acceptable quality repeatably, at a competitive price and be profitable doing so, the costs and methodology of which are well known. The futurist gimmicks such as the above are a sideshow, especially if Tesla wants to be taken seriously by investors now the bloom is off. The SC network has value, but EA and others (Ionity in Europe, etc.) are increasingly providing real competition for them, and competition which can be used by vehicles produced by multiple manufacturers.

Since at least 2015, I've been saying that Tesla has achieved most of their original mission, as after the Model S no one could dismiss BEVs as nothing more than glorified golf carts - they made BEVs not only cool, but also competitive with ICEs in some markets, and forced the major manufacturers to take them seriously. There's no going back, given the other factors that are boosting ZEVs. If Tesla survives, great, but it's no longer essential that they do. Even if they lose the battle, they've won the war.