TSLA corporate outlook

[EVDRIVER]

The pervasiveness of Tesla's reduced demand continues:



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/tesla-panasonic-freeze-expansion-of-gigafactory-nikkei-says?utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

Because that is the only explanation other than many others not to mention no actual source for that info like all these stories. There is a response from Tesla:

“Both Tesla and Panasonic continue to invest substantial funds into Gigafactory. That said, we believe there is far more output to be gained from improving existing production equipment than was previously estimated.

Lame and laughable! One can't refute what the Q1 numbers indicated; The M3 demand has peaked and has begun to fall.,
just like the the demand for the dated MS/MX products.

Yes it has peaked and sales will soon end in a year and the S/X will de discontinued. Who ever said the demand would increase after an order backlog and who ever said the S and X would not be replaced? You better grab one soon. Of course LEAF demand is skyrocketing and I'm sure if they did not have years of give-away leases and incentives they would have doubled their sales right? At least Tesla will have outsold all other EVs by the time they are gone and if they do a Nissan LEAF style (subsidized) lease they should be able to do at least another 300K model 3s for a few years. How many LEAFs do you think Nissan would sell at full price with no LEASE and the present tax credits? Not many. The lease is what allowed them to sell any significant numbers since 2011 even with a full incentive which they needed.

https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-february-2019/

With an available lease, prob would be about 200 without a lease. LOL

"But as those of us in the EV sales world know, January is never a strong month. Therefore, and as expected, LEAF sales dropped. Nissan sold just 717 LEAFs in January 2019. We figured that was rock bottom, but then February numbers came out and yet another decline was noted. In February 2019, Nissan sold just 654 LEAFs".

https://insideevs.com/tesla-sales-high-february-2019-u-s/

"In February 2019, Tesla sold about 7,650 all-electric cars (InsideEVs’ estimation) in the U.S., which is 67% more than a year ago.

As the overall plug-in market didn’t grow much last month, Tesla further increased its market share.

Tesla results:

Tesla Model 3 – 5,750 (12,250 YTD)
Tesla Model X – 1,100 (2,050 YTD)
Tesla Model S – 800 (1,675 YTD)"

Looks like failing Model S outsold the updated Nissan LEAF even at a much higher price point and a huge market head start. How financially stable do you think Nissan would be if they were an EV only company with the same infrastructure as Tesla. Well I guess Carlos figured out what to do....

 

[Leaf15]

Looks like Panasonic just pulled the plug on Gigafactory expansion plans. No need to increase production rates due to poor demand. bad news for all EVs though.

 

[Valdemar]

Tesla is the DeLorean of EVs, we just need a Back to the Future sequel with a Tesla in it to make it official.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Looks like Panasonic just pulled the plug on Gigafactory expansion plans. No need to increase production rates due to poor demand. bad news for all EVs though.

They could run a few ads, but probably swimming upstream until they get the crossover version out. The pool of EV true believers in a financial position to buy a Tesla has been depleted, now they need to start capturing the attention of a broader audience and that isn't going to happen with sedans.
I'm continually amazed by the people I know who are hard left, all worried about CC, fracking, drilling wherever, hate DT you name it and have plenty of $$ but when you ask them if they've ordered their Tesla (jokingly) they have all sorts of excuses... my favorite is "Teslas are ugly". I guess they don't see themselves as bearing any responsibility in any of this, even with their freaking annual vacations to Europe, Tahiti what have you.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

$35k Model 3 has effectively been cancelled before a single one has even hit anybody's garage.

Tesla kills base $35,000 Model 3, increases prices, makes Autopilot standard

https://electrek.co/2019/04/11/telsa-35000-model-3/

For now you can still order it over the phone. Supposedly. Maybe.

There goes that fairy tale, up in smoke.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Looks like Panasonic just pulled the plug on Gigafactory expansion plans. No need to increase production rates due to poor demand. bad news for all EVs though.

They could run a few ads, but probably swimming upstream until they get the crossover version out. The pool of EV true believers in a financial position to buy a Tesla has been depleted, now they need to start capturing the attention of a broader audience and that isn't going to happen with sedans.
I'm continually amazed by the people I know who are hard left, all worried about CC, fracking, drilling wherever, hate DT you name it and have plenty of $$ but when you ask them if they've ordered their Tesla (jokingly) they have all sorts of excuses... my favorite is "Teslas are ugly". I guess they don't see themselves as bearing any responsibility in any of this, even with their freaking annual vacations to Europe, Tahiti what have you.

Most people's politics are built on a worthless bed of sand. When push comes to shove and it actually impacts them you see their real beliefs come through. Quickest way to take those layers of bulls*** off their onion is to make them open their wallet.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Most people's politics are built on a worthless bed of sand. When push comes to shove and it actually impacts them you see their real beliefs come through. Quickest way to take those layers of bulls*** off their onion is to make them open their wallet.

(OT) Very true... and the hypocrisy runs both directions. I've seen folks on the right whine when something gets cuts and it's their ox that's being gored.

Back to Tesla, I'm hoping something happens with the tax credit situation. Best thing for them is it gets restored/expanded beyond the 200k car limit, next best thing is probably to eliminate it entirely, since the way it is now it has turned into a second mover advantage. I suppose you could make a case for the subsidy helping get other mfrs into the game in the US lends credibility to the technology in the market.

Unfortunately I'm not sure there is the political will to make anything happen, although I'd lay better odds on restoring the credits. Also it could be a bargaining chip in a bigger deal.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Most people's politics are built on a worthless bed of sand. When push comes to shove and it actually impacts them you see their real beliefs come through. Quickest way to take those layers of bulls*** off their onion is to make them open their wallet.

(OT) Very true... and the hypocrisy runs both directions. I've seen folks on the right whine when something gets cuts and it's their ox that's being gored.

Back to Tesla, I'm hoping something happens with the tax credit situation. Best thing for them is it gets restored/expanded beyond the 200k car limit, next best thing is probably to eliminate it entirely, since the way it is now it has turned into a second mover advantage. I suppose you could make a case for the subsidy helping get other mfrs into the game in the US lends credibility to the technology in the market.

Unfortunately I'm not sure there is the political will to make anything happen, although I'd lay better odds on restoring the credits. Also it could be a bargaining chip in a bigger deal.

Yeah I see a "bipartisan" effort to get credits done but I think Trump is very cool to it so unless a veto proof bill is sent through it won't happen.

And yeah you're right I'm trying to think about my own politics, they are hardly built on rocks, either.

What's amazing to me, is that Panasonic has indicated demand is weak, Q1 numbers were horrific (not earnings yet--we get those in May), and then Tesla has now thrown in the towel on the $35k, and yet the stock this second? Flat. It even went up a couple bucks earlier today.

What in the world is it going to take for bulls to give up on this? I have no idea.

 

[webb14leafs]

Looks like Panasonic just pulled the plug on Gigafactory expansion plans. No need to increase production rates due to poor demand. bad news for all EVs though.

They could run a few ads, but probably swimming upstream until they get the crossover version out. The pool of EV true believers in a financial position to buy a Tesla has been depleted, now they need to start capturing the attention of a broader audience and that isn't going to happen with sedans.
I'm continually amazed by the people I know who are hard left, all worried about CC, fracking, drilling wherever, hate DT you name it and have plenty of $$ but when you ask them if they've ordered their Tesla (jokingly) they have all sorts of excuses... my favorite is "Teslas are ugly". I guess they don't see themselves as bearing any responsibility in any of this, even with their freaking annual vacations to Europe, Tahiti what have you.

Very, very true. MOST people put comfort and covenience ahead of any so-called value. That's why I worry about the Model Y. Simply calling it a small SUV won't satisfy the fickle public. It looks like a bloated Model 3. Anyone who truly cares about the environment is already buying a model 3 or or other electric car. The Model Y was supposed to meet mainstream market demands for size and styling. It's just too fugly to do that. It's a really important car for them. I truly hope it works out, but they didn't help themselves much.

 

[GRA]

GCR:

Musk aims to transform Tesla into self-driving robo-taxi company

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...orm-tesla-into-self-driving-robo-taxi-company

. . . When Tesla announced the start of leasing for the Model 3 in early April, it specified that lessees no longer have the option to keep the cars at the end of the lease, but instead must return them to Tesla. Musk plans to use those cars to populate Tesla Network of robo-taxis after it takes them back. He said he expects to have the first Tesla Network robo-taxis operating in 2020.

Owners (who buy the cars and can keep them) will be able to share their cars on the Tesla Network to put them to work as robo-taxis when they don’t need them. Musk said the company will take a cut of 25 to 30 percent of the revenue, but estimated that for riders using the cars they could cost as little as 18 cents per mile. He estimated that a car on the Tesla Network will have up to three times the utilization rate of a non-shared, privately-owned car.

Musk also announced that, in support of the Tesla network, the company will begin engineering its cars and batteries to last 1 million miles, up from the current 300,000 to 500,000-mile target. He says the company’s Powerpack batteries are already engineered to last a similar number of cycles. If so, that would make Tesla the first company to do so. . . .

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Absolute sh**-show of a first quarter, as expected.

I took out my first short position on tsla about two weeks ago. I won't do it again because of the religious fervor behind its followers, but man, what a terrible Q1 earnings. People are finally figuring out this guy needs to put up or shut up. The Y reveal fell flat on its face, the autonomy day fell flat on its face. Nobody believes him anymore except the truly faithful. The big money is increasingly questioning.

Musk has all but admitted again they will have to raise capital. Not even projecting a profit for Q2.

This company is on the ropes. It truly is on its back. It's unbelievable to me still that it is still valued at $45B. Tesla is at a critical point. Within weeks they will be out of money unless they raise more cash.

Musk admitted in 2018 that the company was weeks away from death. It is there again.

Per usual, deflection via goal moving, now onto some silliness about an insurance company, this recent focus back to tesla network. Always dangling the new shiny thing.

 

[Evoforce]

Absolute sh**-show of a first quarter, as expected.

I took out my first short position on tsla about two weeks ago. I won't do it again because of the religious fervor behind its followers, but man, what a terrible Q1 earnings. People are finally figuring out this guy needs to put up or shut up. The Y reveal fell flat on its face, the autonomy day fell flat on its face. Nobody believes him anymore except the truly faithful. The big money is increasingly questioning.

Musk has all but admitted again they will have to raise capital. Not even projecting a profit for Q2.

This company is on the ropes. It truly is on its back. It's unbelievable to me still that it is still valued at $45B. Tesla is at a critical point. Within weeks they will be out of money unless they raise more cash.

Musk admitted in 2018 that the company was weeks away from death. It is there again.

Per usual, deflection via goal moving, now onto some silliness about an insurance company, this recent focus back to tesla network. Always dangling the new shiny thing.

:lol:

 

[palmermd]

Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted.

Another Elon guesstimate, right? If likely, then next Wednesday should indicate minimum U.S. deliveries of 15-20K (M3/MS/MX)
for April, and assuming ROW is near equal to U.S. - that's unlikely though. The key assumption is that the M3 demand hasn't weakened,
which many analysts believe not to be the case, as indicated by a very poor Q1. Again, where's the $35K M3? Surely with all the
$1K reservations still on the books from 2016, a huge delivery potential exists, right? Oh, did we forget, Tesla can't deliver a $35K M3
profitably.

Bottom Line: Dream On!

I'm going to have to start seriously thinking about buying more stock. When the negativity gets this intense is about the time the stock takes off again.

I picked up my $35k Model 3. It is a fantastic car, and I have several other friends who are getting theirs in the next week. Some of my coworkers saw my car and are impressed enough to consider putting in an order for one. The SR and the SR+ are an amazing value. As more of them get into the hands of customers the word of mouth from customer sales is going to start picking up momentum. You need to drive one of these cars for a week, and I think you'll see what an amazing vehicle it is.

There were a lot of factors that played into the bad quarter. Some were out of Tesla's control, and some were totally their mistake. I expect that they learned a few things about how to build cars at this fast pace and also how to transport and deliver cars at this fast pace. It will take some time to figure it all out, but they are learning and getting better all the time.

 

[Zythryn]

...

This company is on the ropes. It truly is on its back. It's unbelievable to me still that it is still valued at $45B. Tesla is at a critical point. Within weeks they will be out of money unless they raise more cash.

...

You really are just trolling here aren't you?
First, why be vague? Care to nail down what "within weeks" means? 3 weeks, or 3000 weeks?
As you already noted, Tesla has already indicated they are considering raising cash, however they could have three more quarters just like this one and not be out of cash.
So with that in mind, I don't see them running out of cash within "weeks".

 

[WetEV]

Absolute sh**-show of a first quarter, as expected.

:lol:

Tsla the stock is overpriced. If Tesla survives, and grows up to be a big car company making lots of low priced, boring cars for all the people that want boring cars and need them low priced to fit their budgets, then Tesla will be priced as a stock at a similar market value to GM and F. It is still a capital intensive, cyclical business. Yes, the top of the market isn't like this, and this is why Tesla can survive now.

Telsa is not very likely to fail, baring management mistakes. This isn't as positive as it sounds, as Musk has made lots of management mistakes. The next one might be fatal. Tesla has good, great in some ways, and not so great products in other ways, very loyal fans. Great from the sportiness angle. Not so great from the reliability angle. Good potential. Not so good execution.

Tesla has scared all the dino-fueled car makers. Again, this isn't as positive as it sounds, as a growing company wants the competition complacent, feeling secure that buggy whips are always going to be the market, and not trying to match or exceed your efforts. If Ford or GM or VW had an EV with the sales potential of the Model 3, they could be making 10,000 a week starting last year, not maybe by the end of 2019. Or 60,000 a week. Tesla might be trapped in a niche, at the end of it all. Like Jaguar, Porsche and such. Profitable, status, all that. Just not mass market.

So I see a glass half full, or half empty. Not a great investment, not a great short sale.

My opinion is that: The Tesla Bulls are way out in left field, the Tesla Bears are way out in right field. Both are making some good points, and both are way off on others points. Reality isn't going to be kind to either of them. It never is.

 

[webb14leafs]

My opinion is that: The Tesla Bulls are way out in left field, the Tesla Bears are way out in right field. Both are making some good points, and both are way off on others points. Reality isn't going to be kind to either of them. It never is.

Wise Words.

I do not own a Tesla Vehicle, but I do own Tesla Stock. I agree with you. The stock is overpriced and overhyped. The car (Model 3) is not. It's a solid car, that has been very successful by every measure. The financial issues with cash burn will be resolved because most investors recognize that Tesla will eventually be a very profitable company as it produces more models.

I think it's time for some better marketing. The average person is ignorant about EVs. In the quarterly call Musk said you would have to be insane to not buy a Tesla (if you're in the market for a new car). I would replace "insane" with "uninformed". And that's Tesla's fault. They need to get the word out that the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of a model 3 is lower than an accord or camry, and on par with a loaded civic or mazda 3.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Q2 projected deliverables is 90-100k cars. Smoother international deliveries being targeted.

Another Elon guesstimate, right? If likely, then next Wednesday should indicate minimum U.S. deliveries of 15-20K (M3/MS/MX)
for April, and assuming ROW is near equal to U.S. - that's unlikely though. The key assumption is that the M3 demand hasn't weakened,
which many analysts believe not to be the case, as indicated by a very poor Q1. Again, where's the $35K M3? Surely with all the
$1K reservations still on the books from 2016, a huge delivery potential exists, right? Oh, did we forget, Tesla can't deliver a $35K M3
profitably.

Bottom Line: Dream On!

I'm going to have to start seriously thinking about buying more stock. When the negativity gets this intense is about the time the stock takes off again.

I picked up my $35k Model 3. It is a fantastic car, and I have several other friends who are getting theirs in the next week. Some of my coworkers saw my car and are impressed enough to consider putting in an order for one. The SR and the SR+ are an amazing value. As more of them get into the hands of customers the word of mouth from customer sales is going to start picking up momentum. You need to drive one of these cars for a week, and I think you'll see what an amazing vehicle it is.

There were a lot of factors that played into the bad quarter. Some were out of Tesla's control, and some were totally their mistake. I expect that they learned a few things about how to build cars at this fast pace and also how to transport and deliver cars at this fast pace. It will take some time to figure it all out, but they are learning and getting better all the time.

Do it. You people just won't learn until your brokerage account is ravaged by this stock. Buy more today. It hit a 52 week low yesterday and has hit another one a few minutes ago. Keep doubling-down. Buy the dip.

The financial issues with cash burn will be resolved because most investors recognize that Tesla will eventually be a very profitable company as it produces more models.

Do they, though? Tesla doesn't know how it's going to be profitable. It was supposed to be model 3. Demand has evaporated on that, so that won't work. Then model y? Or insurance? or FSD? Always excuses from them, always an excuse about why this quarter was bad but next one will be great.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

My opinion is that: The Tesla Bulls are way out in left field, the Tesla Bears are way out in right field. Both are making some good points, and both are way off on others points. Reality isn't going to be kind to either of them. It never is.

TSLA has shed >1/3rd of its value since December.

Bears have made an absolute killing shorting this stock since that time. The bottom is falling out, because the only people who are now taking musk at his word are dreamers with broken BS meters. That group of people is shrinking.

Wonder if we break sub $240 today. To your earlier point--if TSLA has to start being valued as a car company the stock is going to get absolutely smashed, if it is valued by same fundamentals that influence toyota, GM, VW

 

[webb14leafs]

Another Elon guesstimate, right? If likely, then next Wednesday should indicate minimum U.S. deliveries of 15-20K (M3/MS/MX)
for April, and assuming ROW is near equal to U.S. - that's unlikely though. The key assumption is that the M3 demand hasn't weakened,
which many analysts believe not to be the case, as indicated by a very poor Q1. Again, where's the $35K M3? Surely with all the
$1K reservations still on the books from 2016, a huge delivery potential exists, right? Oh, did we forget, Tesla can't deliver a $35K M3
profitably.

Bottom Line: Dream On!

I'm going to have to start seriously thinking about buying more stock. When the negativity gets this intense is about the time the stock takes off again.

I picked up my $35k Model 3. It is a fantastic car, and I have several other friends who are getting theirs in the next week. Some of my coworkers saw my car and are impressed enough to consider putting in an order for one. The SR and the SR+ are an amazing value. As more of them get into the hands of customers the word of mouth from customer sales is going to start picking up momentum. You need to drive one of these cars for a week, and I think you'll see what an amazing vehicle it is.

There were a lot of factors that played into the bad quarter. Some were out of Tesla's control, and some were totally their mistake. I expect that they learned a few things about how to build cars at this fast pace and also how to transport and deliver cars at this fast pace. It will take some time to figure it all out, but they are learning and getting better all the time.

Do it. You people just won't learn until your brokerage account is ravaged by this stock. Buy more today. It hit a 52 week low yesterday and has hit another one a few minutes ago. Keep doubling-down. Buy the dip.

The financial issues with cash burn will be resolved because most investors recognize that Tesla will eventually be a very profitable company as it produces more models.

Do they, though? Tesla doesn't know how it's going to be profitable. It was supposed to be model 3. Demand has evaporated on that, so that won't work. Then model y? Or insurance? or FSD? Always excuses from them, always an excuse about why this quarter was bad but next one will be great.

You're just trolling at this point. Demand evaporated?? I don't think so. Paused due to loss of incentives and pricing fiascos? Sounds more likely. This is my speculation based on current sales. It's still the best selling EV in the world. It's still the best selling "luxury" car model in the world. More than half of all new car sales in Norway were a Tesla. There was pent up demand in the US that has now tapered. There's no doubt about that. But evaporated???

There are a lot of headwinds for this company, but it is not going to zero. I think the share price will go down even further, possibly below $200, but the company is still poised for massive growth.

I enjoy reasonable debates about this company's challenges. The biggest one right now is FORD. As an investor I see a lot of opportunity in a Tesla truck because of the massive potential in fleet sales. Ford appears to be on track to beat them to that market, and since Ford already dominates the truck market there's little opportunity for Tesla to invade it. We'll see which company gets to market first, but this market is a sleeping giant that noone talks about. Fleet trucks are capital investments that are amortized, so the TOC savings associated with an EV are fully considered. They're also relatively high margin vehicles.

 

[WetEV]

My opinion is that: The Tesla Bulls are way out in left field, the Tesla Bears are way out in right field. Both are making some good points, and both are way off on others points. Reality isn't going to be kind to either of them. It never is.

TSLA has shed >1/3rd of its value since December.

To your earlier point--if TSLA has to start being valued as a car company the stock is going to get absolutely smashed, if it is valued by same fundamentals that influence toyota, GM, VW

If TSLA is a car company, what kind of car company? If Tesla was a high margin high sales price luxury and performance car company (like Ferrari, but bigger), might have a rather higher PE than a much larger high volume high sales (GM clone) car company. in both cases, the price might not decline long term. Might not rise either.

Investment isn't suggested.

But trading? Bears can make money, as can Bulls. Just remember that Pigs get slaughtered. Or if you prefer, don't follow that trend out a window.