Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

[40milecommuter]

(from insideevs commenter) and I agree.....

This should make it even more obvious to NEVER buy a Leaf but only lease, return, lease again if you want.

Just replacing the battery on your 3-5 year old Leaf at $6,000 is equal to $166/mo over 36 months.

A New 2015 Leaf S starts at $229/mo for 36 months.
($2,268 more in payments + $1,999 Down = $4,267, where a new Leaf lease still gets you about $2,000 ahead of a battery replacement.)

So now when even thinking of buying a used Leaf, you MUST take into account the $6,000 battery replacement that you will have to pay for yourself, or before reselling, or drop your selling price$6,000 to account for the pending battery replacement.

Or avoid the nightmare and just lease the Leaf.

 

[Kataphn]

With next day Prime delivery!

And also, how much can I get it for at Amazon... :lol:

By drone

 

[jomo25]

The original article says that the 2015 Leaf will have the Lizard battery and is available for sale now. I don't see anywhere that it is available yet. And is it certain that no 2014s will have the new Lizard battery?

 

[jomo25]

With next day Prime delivery!

And also, how much can I get it for at Amazon... :lol:

By drone

The only drones that could deliver them are *ahem* busy overseas.

 

[johnrhansen]

This news gives me a warm fuzzy feeling inside, even though, based on how well my battery has done in the one year I have owned this car, I will not be needing to replace it. I expect this car to serve me well for 5 more years at least, when I think I will have just about broke even on the extra money I paid for the car. The reward? All that time I will be driving a smooth, quiet, well engineered car instead of the cheap commuter car I based the calculations on. By the time my battery needs replacement, the rest of the car will need to be replaced as well.

 

[WetEV]

I will also still be withholding anything but a limited lease recommendation on the car until we have a true track record for the lizard...

Look at three cases:

Cool, average and hot. 70% EOL, Wiki's estimates for battery life: http://electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss#Battery_Aging_Model" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Cool is PNW, say Olympia WA, wiki estimate is 9 years and 112,500 miles, battery cost is $6000/100,000 or $0.06 per mile. Add $0.02 for electric power (@$0.11), and buying a Leaf looks like it pays off. Even a Prius will cost more per mile for just gasoline (about $0.08), and the Leaf is a nicer car. Net cost of own for 18 years is ($23,000 for car, after rebate, $6000 replacement battery) or $29,000/18 years or $134 a month. Can't lease for that. Even without a replacement battery, 9 years at $213 a month. Lease rate for the Leaf SV was $270/month with VPP. Buying in the PNW is cheaper than leasing, even before the replacement battery price.

Average is LA civic center or Knoxville, TN, wiki estimate is 6 years and 75k miles, battery cost per mile is $6000/75,000 or $0.08 per mile. Add something for electric power, and yes, a few pennies per mile more than the Prius, and again, the Leaf is a nicer car. Less than a 30 MPG Civic, at $0.13 per mile for gasoline. But is a lease really cheaper? Own the car for 18 years, two replacement batteries later, that is (23,000 for car) $35,000/18 years or $162 a month. I don't think you can lease a Leaf SV for that, even with VPP, great negotiation skills, etc. Even with a 12 year life, one replacement battery, $201 a month.

Hot is Phoenix, AZ. Wiki estimate is 2.5 years and 31,250 miles. Battery cost $6000/31,250 or $0.192 per mile (after the warranty, of course). Right up there with the SUVs, not cheap, yes a lease is probably a better deal, even if the battery is better. Own the car for 18 years, six replacement batteries later, one under warranty, $23,000 + 5 x $6000 = $53,000/18 years or $245 per month. Yes, still less than the VPP lease rate, but not by much.

I agree that the technology is changing, and you might get a cooler or cheaper car in a few years by leasing now. Bird in the hand...

I agree that the risk of leasing is lower. After all, there is a lot of new technology in a Leaf. We don't know exactly how long batteries, inverters, chargers and the rest of the electronics will last.

Not everyone can live in the limits of a 70% EOL battery's range. If you can't, will cost more. If you can live in less, will cost less. Assuming capacity loss stays slow, might be better to sell a used Leaf to someone that needs less range. Especially after the car gets older than the average age of a car in the US, 11 years.

Yea, I've ignored the time value of money, effects of taxes except for the Federal tax rebate (which helps leasing more than buying), inflation, pollution costs, overseas wars for oil, technology improvements and a whole bunch of other important things. Please feel free to update for any or all of these factors. Yes, I picked the 18 year, 12 year and 9 year lifetimes out to make the calculations easier. Yes, I've ignored any remaining value in the car.

It looks to me like a lease is almost but not quite cheaper for the hot places. Marginal for average places, and more expensive for the cool places.

Buying a Leaf looks a whole lot better than it did yesterday. Do the math.

 

[kubel]

This should make it even more obvious to NEVER buy a Leaf but only lease, return, lease again if you want. Just replacing the battery on your 3-5 year old Leaf at $6,000 is equal to $166/mo over 36 months.

A 3-5 year old LEAF battery should be covered by the 5 Year/60K warranty. If you get warranty service in 3-5 years, you will have a battery that won't reach EOL again until the 6th to 10th year of ownership. So your example is a little extreme, but let's look at me:

In my case, the warranty will do nothing for me. The battery aging model predicts I have about 7 years. That means over the course of 14 years of ownership, I'm looking at $35/mo.

Lets base this on an S here in Michigan.

$21,480 after tax credit
Split into 168 months, that's $127.86 per month.
Add $35/mo for 168 months worth of battery.
$162.85/mo

vs

$229/mo with zero down leases.

Now even if you assume $6000 worth of other things break in those 14 years (now up to $197.85/mo) you're still below the cost of a perpetual lease by sticking with the LEAF for the long term.

I should probably note that a $229/mo zero down lease is below MSRP, while the long term ownership in this example is MSRP. Also, after 14 years, the LEAF will have some residual value, even if it's only worth scrap. At the end of the lease, you owe Nissan a disposition fee. Finally, the leases are qualifying for 4 or 5 $7500 tax credits in the form of lease cash- the single purchase over 14 years only qualifies once. When the tax credit is gone, this will only favor the numbers of the owned LEAF over the leased LEAF.

It's difficult to economically justify a perpetual lease.

 

[cwerdna]

Bravo!

I haven't had time to comment until now and the thread has already exploded! After many delays and the disappointing $100/mo "SYB" program instead of a price, I'm very pleasantly surprised to hear all this good news. The price is more reasonable than I expected and I'm glad the warranty portion was answered as well.

 

[klapauzius]

Buying a Leaf looks a whole lot better than it did yesterday. Do the math.

+1.
I am planning to keep my Leaf for a long time and with a reasonably priced battery that now becomes possible.

Given that there is little mechanical wear and tear, even buying a used leaf now makes sense, since unlike with ICE cars, a used leaf with a new battery should almost drive like a new one.

 

[kubel]

Given that there is little mechanical wear and tear, even buying a used leaf now makes sense, since unlike with ICE cars, a used leaf with a new battery should almost drive like a new one.

There are still a few more EV-specific parts that are very expensive to replace and have unknown life. On the 2011-2012:

Motor: $5400
Inverter: $3900
Charger: $1700
DC/DC: $870

Of course, I would be going to the junk yard before I paid MSRP.

 

[garylai]

(from insideevs commenter) and I agree.....

This should make it even more obvious to NEVER buy a Leaf but only lease, return, lease again if you want.

Just replacing the battery on your 3-5 year old Leaf at $6,000 is equal to $166/mo over 36 months.

A New 2015 Leaf S starts at $229/mo for 36 months.
($2,268 more in payments + $1,999 Down = $4,267, where a new Leaf lease still gets you about $2,000 ahead of a battery replacement.)

So now when even thinking of buying a used Leaf, you MUST take into account the $6,000 battery replacement that you will have to pay for yourself, or before reselling, or drop your selling price$6,000 to account for the pending battery replacement.

Or avoid the nightmare and just lease the Leaf.

Not sure I agree. For $229/mo for 36 months with $1,999 down you will pay $10,243 for for each 36 month lease. After 9 years you will have paid $30,729 for three different leases and have nothing to show for it.

If you buy it, it will cost about $29,000 - $7,500 tax rebate = $21,500. Then after about 5 years you replace the battery at $5500 cost, or $27,000 total paid. But after 9 years, you still own the car, it will have a residual value if you sell it - say $7,000. So you will end up ahead if hold onto the car for a long time.

The big allure of leasing is the technology is changing fast. An old Leaf will not look so attractive when Nissan releases the 150 mile Leaf in 2017 for $35,000.

 

[Volusiano]

Like TomT and some others said, I have reservation about the effectiveness of improvement made to the Lizard battery pitted against hot weather areas like Phoenix.

In light of the last time Nissan led everyone to believe that their original battery should be fine in hot weather areas and there's no need for TMS and they were wrong, I'd have to see it before I believe it that their Lizard battery truly solves the heat problem or not.

It would be funny if improvement to the Lizard battery is barely enough to push the capacity loss out just long enough so that Nissan will rarely have to honor their 70% battery warranty anymore, but not good enough such that capacity loss in Phoenix is still a concern after all.

But the new pricing on a new Lizard battery pack is still welcomed news. Just don't assume prematurely that the Lizard battery has licked the heat problem just yet until there's enough data to prove otherwise. At least you don't see Nissan sharing with anyone detailed data yet to prove how much better the Lizard is compared to the original. If they're being transparent with everything now, then I challenge Nissan to open up the data and share with the public the results of their Lizard's improvement. Surely they must have some data up their sleeves that they can share.

 

[DaveEV]

First off - great news! The price is very attractive and it's great that the latest pack will fit in the '11-12 LEAFs. Having replacement batteries available with the "lizard" cells should ensure that most LEAFs stay on the road for a long, long time.

My main concern:

Quite a lot of owners (especially southern California owners like myself) will find themselves in a situation where their battery will fall to 8 bars capacity just outside of the 5-year 60k-mile capacity warranty.

For those lucky enough to fall just inside the warranty period, they get a new pack, free of charge. For those un-lucky enough to fall just outside the warranty period, they end up paying ~$6,000.

It seems that there should be some sort of compensation for those who make it to the end of the capacity warranty without losing 4 bars, but losing 2-3. After all, we were originally led to believe by Nissan that we would maintain ~80% capacity after 5 years and ~70% capacity after 8 years. At the very least, as an owner who has lost appx 20% capacity after 3 years, I am quite a ways ahead of the capacity loss I expected despite taking measures to maximize battery life (like 80% charging, minimal QC use, etc).

Perhaps this is something that the future battery lease program will address?

BTW have you noticed how the comments have changed from "I want to know the price of a new battery" to "Well, I'm gonna wait until xyz". Not many saying "great, where do I sign up"? Fancy that Who'd a thunk it?

I'm not surprised by this as someone who wanted to know the price of the battery. I wanted to know the price of the battery so that I could make an estimate as to when it might be beneficial to replace it - or if it's worth replacing it at all. Now that the price is known, I will simply wait as long as i can before replacing my battery - and hope that perhaps the price comes down farther or even better a higher capacity replacement is offered. For $6k, I would be very eager to upgrade even if it only improved capacity from 24 kWh to 28 kWh (thus reaching the capacity to make 100 mile range easily attainable).

 

[TaylorSFGuy]

Wonder if Steve Marsh has placed his order yet?

Well actually I have double downed on the LEAF. Brought home a 2014 yesterday.

I still have my 2011. Having resolution of the replacement program is reassuring. I haven't reached the point where I have to replace the battery yet but I can see it is struggling to deal with all I'm throwing at it. GID count has been dropping slowly but steadily. Just lost third bar. Just a matter of how much time I can stand charging

I am pleased by this latest development. Next thing to look forward too is a larger capacity battery in the same form factor and possibly that rumored 6.6kw charger swap on 2011 models.

Thanks Nissan.

 

[DaveEV]

that rumored 6.6kw charger swap on 2011 models.

Faster charging retrofit would be very cool - but I haven't heard any rumors that Nissan was working on something for '11-12 LEAFs. I imagine the cost would be at least $2k - I can't imagine too many people taking Nissan up on it...

 

[Volusiano]

Now that Nissan is saying the 2015 will have the Lizard battery, nobody is going to want to buy a brand new 2014 anymore.

 

[cwerdna]

Now that Nissan is saying the 2015 will have the Lizard battery, nobody is going to want to buy a brand new 2014 anymore.

There will still be a ton of people buyers/potential buyers who have no idea.

 

[mxp]

This news gives me a warm fuzzy feeling inside, even though, based on how well my battery has done in the one year I have owned this car, I will not be needing to replace it. I expect this car to serve me well for 5 more years at least, when I think I will have just about broke even on the extra money I paid for the car. The reward? All that time I will be driving a smooth, quiet, well engineered car instead of the cheap commuter car I based the calculations on. By the time my battery needs replacement, the rest of the car will need to be replaced as well.

Same here... the feeling is fuzzy, but honestly; it's a bad deal from Nissan.

I sure Mr Brockman was utterly surprised to see the majority of EV enthusiasts being happy with the offer. The reality is that Nissan will eventually realize that the price is just way too high relative to everything else in play in the automotive industry in the coming years.

Seriously, for California, this will be a $7,000 drive-away (install & sales tax incl) cost in attempt to give a 2nd life to an ageing vehicle with additional risk of other components failing.

In 4 years time (let's assume this scenario- say from 2014) there will be lower prices, better specced EVs out there and most likely, std batteries with higher range. Just take a look at 2013/2014 modern gasoline or diesel passenger vehicles- most of them now have smarter automotive technology in them to reduce engine fuel consumption and increase MPG.

Why would anyone spend $7,000 on an aging 2011 Leaf 4 years from now? I rather spend the $7,000 on a used 2013/14 modern vehicle. It's 2014, and my 2011 Leaf is barely worth $10k used.

Another scenario is this: In 4 years time, a 2011 Leaf (with a degraded batt) would be worth let's say $3,000 on the market. You pay the $7,000 to install a new battery, and attempt to sell it on the used car market for $11,000. Do you really think anyone is going to buy this car?

Wake up people!! Its really a bad deal.

 

[RegGuheert]

Now that Nissan is saying the 2015 will have the Lizard battery, nobody is going to want to buy a brand new 2014 anymore.

There will still be a ton of people buyers/potential buyers who have no idea.

+1

Nissan does not want to bring any more attention to the battery issues than possible, so this may be the only mention they ever make of the new battery.

My questions about the new battery remain:

- Do the improvements to the battery help with calendar life, with cycling life, or both?
- If there are improvements to calendar life, have the factors which cause linear calendar losses been reduced to the point where they will not dominate calendar losses until much later in the battery's life? (To me, this is the key point that ALL EV batteries must address, regardless of chemistry and/or use of a TMS. But the battery industry still mainly discusses cycling life of emerging technologies.)
- How much of an improvement in capacity fade will a high-mileage customer in a cool climate achieve with the new battery technology?
- How much of an improvement in capacity fade will a low-mileage customer in a hot climate achieve with the new battery technology?

I guess we are on our own to learn this information.

Unfortunately, Steve Marsh just bought a 2014, so we won't be able to get the data for the third bullet from him. Perhaps he could purchase a 2015 *also* and each one every other day? :lol:

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I just don't see a guy in hot weather area replacing the battery five times to wring 18 years of service out of a LEAF. Besides, Nissan isn't making any commitment about how far into the future replacements will be available, I wouldn't count on anything beyond 10 years, particularly if the form factor changes... which would be an even sadder thing if it hasn't by then.

Regarding the buy vs lease decision, remember you can always lease then buy it out at the end if you like the way things are going. Costs a little more than buying to begin with but that delta (maybe a grand?) looks to me like cheap insurance against a variety of unknowns, not to mention removing any IRS uncertainty on the credit.