Wholesale value of the 2011 Leaf @Auction March 2018

[dgpcolorado]

The flip side of the sharp drop in LEAF resale values is that a careful used car buyer, with realistic expectations and range needs, can pick up a used LEAF for a very good price.

 

[GRA]

I think the only thing that will give the horde of Leafs coming off lease in the next year or two any value is if Nissan were to institute a battery lease program with a minimum guaranteed capacity, such as the 75% that the Fluence (or is it the Zoe) has. That will remove one of the biggest fears as to whether the car will retain any useful capability as it ages, and since the federal and possibly state subsidy laws that prevented them doing this on new cars won't apply, there's no financial reason not to do it.

 

[QueenBee]

Thanks for setting the facts straight OrientExpress. Way to much speculation and irrelevantly bringing up the full retail price vs what a new LEAF car actually costs. As you point out anyone that bought and had any inkling that they would be trading in within a few years should have clearly leased. Just using Nissan's guess on value these cars should be losing roughly 1% of their value a month based on the residual. Obviously it's not linear but that should give you an idea of value over the lease period.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Thanks for setting the facts straight OrientExpress. Way to much speculation and irrelevantly bringing up the full retail price vs what a new LEAF car actually costs. As you point out anyone that bought and had any inkling that they would be trading in within a few years should have clearly leased. Just using Nissan's guess on value these cars should be losing roughly 1% of their value a month based on the residual. Obviously it's not linear but that should give you an idea of value over the lease period.

And residuals are not based on anything but the MSRP.

Here's the actual data from Nissan, current as of Dec 2012:

2012 Nissan LEAF "SL"
15,000 annual miles
MSRP price $38,415

Residuals
24 month = 55% MSRP
36 month = 47% MSRP
39 month = 46% MSRP

 

[QueenBee]

Thanks for setting the facts straight OrientExpress. Way to much speculation and irrelevantly bringing up the full retail price vs what a new LEAF car actually costs. As you point out anyone that bought and had any inkling that they would be trading in within a few years should have clearly leased. Just using Nissan's guess on value these cars should be losing roughly 1% of their value a month based on the residual. Obviously it's not linear but that should give you an idea of value over the lease period.

And residuals are not based on anything but the MSRP.

Here's the actual data from Nissan, current as of Dec 2012:

2012 Nissan LEAF "SL"
15,000 annual miles
MSRP price $38,415

Residuals
24 month = 55% MSRP
36 month = 47% MSRP
39 month = 46% MSRP

Hmm, yeah, good point, I guess I must have been thinking it's just the depreciation that would be based on the price you pay after the federal credit. Will be interesting to see where the values end up as the leases start coming up.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

I don't plan on selling the S for a very long time so I'm less worried about residual value, though I have to say that to some extent our configuration choices reflect our best guess at what will retain the best value, just in case we end up wanting/needing to sell sooner than expected.

You guys are going to love calculating your depreciation losses on your S's.

Buying an S will give ample opportunities for the AOG ceremony for years to come...

Happy Festivus to all!

http://www.festivusweb.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

I suspect that unfortunately, the very thing that is causing depressed value, fear, will also be too great a deterrent to be overcome by lower prices. battery capacity and lifespan are the two greatest fears that people have with respects to EV's and Nissan has only inflamed those concerns with their handling of the Leaf battery issues. Solid action with some sort of real warranty may change that, time will tell.

The flip side of the sharp drop in LEAF resale values is that a careful used car buyer, with realistic expectations and range needs, can pick up a used LEAF for a very good price.

 

[Herm]

I'm not sure most people know about the battery issue*, I suspect there is little demand for the Leaf new or used and the prices reflect it.


*its a wear item, like tires

 

[cwerdna]

I'm not sure most people know about the battery issue*, I suspect there is little demand for the Leaf new or used and the prices reflect it.

*its a wear item, like tires

I think many people who at least know of EVs probably figure the battery will wear out since they likely have some personal experience w/a laptop, cell phone or cordless phone not holding a charge well anymore. Unfortunately, typically the useful lifespan of such batteries tends to be really short partly due to how they're usually charged/used (and few laptops let you even manage what % to charge the battery to). So, by extension, this may spread to cars.

Even before the Leaf, I'd always hear anti-hybrid FUD about hybrid cars needing their batteries replaced "every few years" and costing some crazy amount of $ (e.g. $5K, $10K, etc.). Those people have no idea that hybrid batteries are warranted for 8 years/100K miles and for many, 10 years/150K miles in CA and CARB states AND don't realize people have had them last that long or more.

I doubt most know about Nissan's poor handling of AZ, TX and hot climate premature degradation though. And even before the 506+ page battery capacity bar lost thread began in May 2012, Leaf sales weren't that great in the US (http://www.hybridcars.com/april-2012-dashboard-45388/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false.

 

[TomT]

When I can get a new battery for under 1,000 bucks, THEN I'll consider it a wear item!

I'm not sure most people know about the battery issue*, I suspect there is little demand for the Leaf new or used and the prices reflect it.
*its a wear item, like tires

 

[evnow]

same It's started a domino effect, poor handling of the excessive range loss has lead to a leery market, leading to a glut in 2012's...

You are trying to rewrite history. The sales dropped earlier than battery issues started.

First big drop in Sales : Feb-12 (478)
Lowest month so far : Apr-12 (370)
First post on capacity loss : May-09-2012

 

[evnow]

From my experience w/selling my own cars, I've found that KBB tends to be high and Edmunds tends to be low.

http://www.nada.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; is another data point.

Comparing 3 values - all tradein. 14k miles, 2011. Excellent condition (or equivalent).

NADA : 20,300
KBB : 19,400
Edmunds : 25,244

 

[surfingslovak]

Here is another recent article, which contends that the resale value is now trailing the average for comparable vehicles with combustion engines. While disproportionally high prices could be obtained a year ago, we are now apparently slightly below average. If my math is right, LEAFs were depreciating at a rate of about $700 or $800 each month recently, which would result in $6 to $7K residual value when projected 12 months out.

Electric Car Residuals Lagging

Kelley Blue Book compared the Leaf with the similarly sized Nissan Sentra, finding the Leaf would be worth 20 percent of its original cost after five years while the Sentra would be worth around 30 percent. For the Volt, KBB found it to be worth 30 percent after five years, while Chevy's conventional Cruze compact would be worth 38 percent. ALG's numbers were similar, bumping the values up one percentage point for both the Leaf and the Volt. According to ALG, the average resale value over five years for a conventional compact is 36.6 percent of original cost.

Click to open

 

[OrientExpress]

Here are the January 2013 auction sales numbers for a 2011 LEAF SL. As the car enters its 3rd year, values continue follow a predictable curve. Wholesale values tend to sag in the winter primarily due to previous year model closeout incentives, and the fact that the January ~ March time frame are always the slow time of the year for both new and used car sales. But the 2011 LEAF SL actually bucked that trend with wholesale and projected retail values for a 2011 LEAF SL actually taking a modest rise over December's wholesale actuals. This was also reflected in the estimated retail pricing and projected 2014 retail pricing. This increase is most probably temporary and reflects the lack of 2012 inventory, and the 2013s not on the market yet.

The LEAF values continue to hold steady with no indication that being a BEV is influencing their wholesale value in the professional dealer trade.

Retail values for a 2011 LEAF are projected to continue to hold steady for the balance of 2013, and moving forward into 2014 calendar year, it is expected that the retail values of car will bottom out at about 33% of original full MSRP or 42% of the post-incentive retail pricing. This is considered average to above average for a 4 year old vehicle. Other issues that may affect 2011 used LEAF values in 2014 include the 2013 cost-reduced LEAF which will be a consideration in a new vs. used purchase decision, and the increased end-of-lease returns of 2011 cars that may cause an oversupply of used LEAFs in the market.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

On cars.com there are 29 2011 with asking price below 19K with some as low as 16.8K. My question is how dealer is able to make profit considering wholesale average of 18K?

 

[OrientExpress]

On cars.com there are 29 2011 with asking price below 19K with some as low as 16.8K. My question is how dealer is able to make profit considering wholesale average of 18K?

There will always be outliers, but here is a list of almost 200 LEAFs from Cars.com that are selling above $20K.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

On cars.com there are 29 2011 with asking price below 19K with some as low as 16.8K. My question is how dealer is able to make profit considering wholesale average of 18K?

There will always be outliers, but here is a list of almost 200 LEAFs from Cars.com that are selling above $20K.

I think you agree: correct should be:
There will always be outliers, but here is a list of almost 200 LEAFs from Cars.com that asking price is above $20K. To tell you true, I do not like to pay asking price

 

[IBELEAF]

20k sounds about right for dealer prices where trade in value 18k according to KBB. I traded in at 24k 6 month ago, so that's roughly $1k depreciation per month. That depreciation rate essentially paid for my 2 year Volt lease, which I estimated would happen, but not so soon.

 

[JeremyW]

The mileage of any of these leafs at auction is just ridiculously low at this point. 5,277 miles? I have more that on my '12 and I've only had it about six months. Must be dealer demo cars.

 

[MrIanB]

The mileage of any of these leafs at auction is just ridiculously low at this point. 5,277 miles? I have more that on my '12 and I've only had it about six months. Must be dealer demo cars.

Yeah, we are the minority. 2011SL 3,500 miles and 2011SL 8,900 miles. One of us is retired and the other work from home. Both were purchased in jan and feb 2012.

Ian B