Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 702
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
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Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:23 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:24 am
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:00 pm
in a traffic accident, I'd rather be in a Tesla than a leaf.
Look for real numbers, not Musk Tweets...
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... the-safest

According to https://www.iihs.org/ratings/driver-dea ... -and-model

The LEAF is one of the best. Interesting that rollover single car accidents are main cause of death! You can roll over a LEAF??
Tesla isn't listed for death rates, too small of numbers for the most recent (2014) report.

https://www.iihs.org/ratings/insurance- ... -and-model
Insurance costs ($$) (2015-2017)(larger is worse)
Vehicle ------------------------ Collision --- Property damage --- Comprehensive --- Personal injury --- Medical payment --- Bodily injury
Nissan Leaf electric ......... -22% ................ -18% .............................. -59% .......................... -21% ....................... -40% ....................... -26%
Tesla Model S 4dr electric 172% .............. -5% ................................ 103% ......................... -33% ........................ -45% ........................ -15%

Looks like the LEAF and Model S are both safer than average. Model 3 is still too new. Both are not the safest.
You've highlighted the extensive insurance cost of a large car versus a small car as justification that the small car is _safer_??!?! I hope you were being sarcastic here?

And why would you make a 2019 car purchase decision off of 2014 data? Especially since the NHTSA crash test results are available: https://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/database/veh/veh.htm

Note that the old style leaf had a 4-star crash rating, while the new style hasn't been tested yet. And we already know that within the 5-star ratings, there's still a range of acceptable values for cabin intrusion and passenger survivability.

Or you can go by the NCAP ratings (which gave both vehicles 5-stars, but provides the sub-category scores as well instead of just hiding it), which also shows the model 3 being safer than the leaf:
https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/nissan/leaf/32742
https://www.euroncap.com/en/results/tesla/model-3/37573
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

WetEV
Posts: 3205
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Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:13 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:23 pm
You've highlighted the extensive insurance cost of a large car versus a small car as justification that the small car is _safer_??!?! I hope you were being sarcastic here?
No, I'm saying that based on death rate, the LEAF is a very safe car, not quite the safest, and there are not yet insurance company statistics to compare to any Tesla. I suspect that it isn't as safe, but don't see good enough data to prove the case.

https://medium.com/@MidwesternHedgi/tes ... 3670ddde17


I wasn't very interested in property damage costs, but rather the last three. "Personal injury --- Medical payment --- Bodily injury "

Tesla is slighter better than the LEAF, but again both cars are not the safest on the road. Death rates and injury rates may not be similar.

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:23 pm
And why would you make a 2019 car purchase decision off of 2014 data?
Because there isn't comparable data for more recent years.
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:23 pm
Especially since the NHTSA crash test results are available: https://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/database/veh/veh.htm
Crash tests are a snapshot of what might happen. Designed for repeatable results and all that good engineering test stuff.

In the real world, many different types of crashes happen. Both types of information are useful. Given a difference, I'd put more weight on the real world insurance data.

I'm not the slightest bit interested in Musk's Tweets.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
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Oils4AsphaultOnly
Posts: 702
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 4:09 pm
Delivery Date: 20 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 313890
Location: Arcadia, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:32 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:13 pm

I'm not the slightest bit interested in Musk's Tweets.
You've said this twice now, yet nothing I've ever posted cited his tweets.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
100% Zero transportation emissions (except when I walk) and loving it!

GRA
Posts: 11178
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:05 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:40 am

PHEV sales were 2360 in Sept, and 6947 in Oct. Looking at BMW and Mercedes numbers, it seems the increase was proportional across all brands. So the increase hardly has anything to do with preference for the german brand. As for PHEV versus BEV sales ratio in Oct, one month out of 10 doesn't make a trend.
Yet it's the higher-end German marques that are seeing the increase. I agree that a single month doesn't prove a trend, only an indication that there might be one, and a longer period is necessary to confirm one. We'll also have to see if Tesla's decision to locate their first (and maybe only) European plant in Germany causes Germans to think of the brand as semi-German instead of American, and whether that might also lead to changes in the cars that make them more amenable to German drivers' taste. Of course, with the ID.3 and a slew of German BEVs about to arrive, that may not matter, but as always, we'll see.
Last edited by GRA on Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.


GRA
Posts: 11178
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:57 pm

IEVS:
Tesla Model 3 Outsells Honda Accord In California: Closing In On Camry
https://insideevs.com/news/385236/tesla ... ales-2019/

Tesla Model 3 remains in the race for the #2 best-selling car in California in 2019, just 277 behind the Toyota Camry.

New car sales in California over the first nine months of 2019 have experienced a mild decline (down 5.1% to 1.43 million YTD), but the plug-in (BEV/PHEV) and hybrid (HEV) segments were positive. . . .
  • BEVs: 78,776 (market share of 5.5%), up 28% from 61,386
    PHEVs: 34,185 (market share of 2.4%), down 25% from 45,537
    Total: 112,961 (market share of 7.9%), up 5.6% from 106,923

    HEVs: 79,017 (market share of 5.5%), up 27% from 62,189
    Total xEVs: 191,978 (market share of 13.4%), up 13.5% from 169,112. . . .
Several BEVs were in the top 5 of their respective classes:

  • Chevrolet Bolt EV (6,723): #2 in Subcompact
    BMW i3 (1,968): #3 in Entry Luxury
    Tesla Model 3 (48,483): #1 in Near Luxury
    Tesla Model S (4,756): #3 in Luxury and High End Sports Cars
    Tesla Model X (5,388): #4 in Luxury Mid Size SUV
The Tesla Model 3 is the #3 best-selling car model with just a small gap to #2!

  • Honda Civic - 58,967
    Toyota Camry - 48,760
    Tesla Model 3 - 48,483
    Honda Accord - 43,709
    Toyota Corolla - 40,928. . . .

I have no trouble at all believing this. While they still aren't as common as the CivCamCordOrolla, seeing one or more Model 3s in any stoplight cycle is routine now.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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