Only $1500 off MSRP is not great price. They are selling in my area for as low as $32K without the Tax Rebate. You also include an awful lot of speculation in your argument. The cost of batteries is decreasing steadily, so it's just as easy to speculate that the extra 20kWh of storage could only cost $3-4K next year and Nissan could offer a "premium" version of the Leaf for around $36K - up against a "base" model M3 that STILL won't be available for new buyers in late 2018. (I hate to criticize the M3. It's a great car, but this is a simple fact.)
If the Bolt is for you - then buy it, but I wouldn't even compare it to the Leaf. In a few years it will be scrapped and remembered as the most uncomfortable car of all time. A total blunder by GM. What's the point of extended range if you can't fit anything in the freakin' car.
Yes I also found some Bolt that's $32k before tax credit, which made them even more attractive, because that'll be in the same price league as the 40kWh 2018 LEAF, and almost certainly cheaper than the 60kWh LEAF. No it's not for me, but I'm almost think its a deal too good to pass on, I was recommending the 40kWh LEAF to a friend but now I'm inclined to recommend the Bolt, his budget is about $25,000 (after tax incentive). I've sat in the Bolt but never driven one, is it really that uncomfortable and unpractical?
My personal commute is short enough that even with degradation my current LEAF can still serve me for the foreseeable future, by 2020 model year I probably gonna upgrade to a Model 3, provided it's available and price remains the same. Alternatively I'm thinking about a preowned i3 94Ah + Rex.
2013 LEAF SL w/Premium Pkg, Brilliant Silver, 55,244 miles, LeafSpy: 50.17 AHr, SOH 76%, Hx70.30% as of 11/05/2018, 10 bars, 28 QC, 2129 L2/L2