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hyperionmark said:
Congrats...you just wasted a lot of time. I didn't even read any of that. :)
What can I say? Tesla fanboy and "cult of Elon" based upon misperceptions.

Tesla is nowhere near diversified and them buying SolarCity, a $ losing business isn't particularly helpful.
 
cwerdna said:
hyperionmark said:
Congrats...you just wasted a lot of time. I didn't even read any of that. :)
What can I say? Tesla fanboy and "cult of Elon" based upon misperceptions.
Meanwhile...this fanboy will go count all the money he has made on the stock and will soon own an amazing car. I'm ok if that's my fanboy consolation prize. :)
 
^^^
Indeed. Many folks can participate in the shared delusion or just the stock's trend/momentum.

I've sometimes been kicking myself for not having any position in TSLA stock (thus not benefiting from the above) but nobody can predict the future. It could keep going up, taper off or all come crashing down. I've personally been in the stock market to see the .com boom then crash as well as 2008... I've personally taken quite a bit of pain from stocks that "should" go back up and "should" recover but never did.

From time to time, I have taken small positions in TSLA stock but don't hold it for long. I'm not crazy enough to short the stock. AGES ago, I have shorted a few stocks but lost way more $ than I've made. I've sworn off doing that any more. If I were to want to take a bearish position on a stock or ETF, it'd be thru options plays.
 
Value or worth of something is a matter of what the majority of people perceive it to be. Is gold really worth anything? Is your house worth as much as you think? I could go on...

What the majority decides to believe, they can make happen whether it's right or wrong, reasonable or not, or good or bad. Staunch belief about something is exactly what it takes to get through tough times. Sheer willpower is what many times separates the winners from the losers.

As a fanboy of electric transportation, I root for all of the companies that are being dragged in that direction and want them (all) to succeed in what I feel will be a better world. I have no problem with people pointing out the actual shortcomings or praising of products etc. It can possibly lead to change for the better.

Of the electric cars that I own, each brand has it's positive and negative.

Now which brand (of what I own) do I get more excited about driving?
 
hyperionmark said:
Congrats...you just wasted a lot of time. I didn't even read any of that. :)

No reason for you to come to your senses now anyway.

I read it so the "waste of time" is simply perceptual. But then again, now you know how I feel about your comments. ;)
 
Someone recently spotted #521 in a group of 8 cars at the plant waiting for delivery. As the serial numbers are all over the place, it's clear that a lot of cars are Somone recently spotted #521 in a group of 8 cars at the plant waiting for delivery. As the serial numbers were all over the place, it's clear that a lot of cars are still needing extensive rework after coming off the line. When we start to see consecutive serial blocks of cars being delivered we can assume that real production has started. I'm not expecting that for another month or two.
 
lorenfb said:
webb14leafs said:
Furthermore, now with the M3, they'll probably lose more money as the M3 will cannibalize sales of the MS.
Many new Tesla buyers will see little value in an MS for the additional cost versus a M3 and will buy the M3
resulting in less GP per vehicle for Tesla. Yes, the M3 is smaller but most who buy the MS rarely buy the
MS as a family vehicle like a CUV and are older buyers. Besides, why buy a MS with about the same range
and carry another 500+ lbs with a MS. Also, the M3 can be ordered with many of the same features as a MS.

This point is a very interesting conversation. I thought the same thing, but someone pointed out that it has been a successfull model for other luxury car manufacturers and shows that rich people will buy anything as long as it's expensive.

It seems logical that the 5-series BMW would cannibalize the 7-series, and the 3 the 5, but they don't. Each model represents a slight bump in trim-level, size and horsepower. Also, each one can be optioned out in a way that makes it more expensive than the next level base model. Makes no sense to me, but apparently it does to people who buy such cars.

Anyway, not saying you're off base at all - we'll have to see how it plays out - but there's a precedent for it succeeding.

Furthermore, trying to differentiate between the M3 & MS is not simply analogous to BMW with there models
(series 7/5/3) as one might initially think for Tesla. Both Tesla models can have:

1. dual motors (BMW offers different ICEs & 4 wheel drive per model)
2. air suspension (not offered on low end BMW models)
3. very similar ranges
4. very similar driving modes, e.g. autopilot, and upgradeable
5. pano roofs
6. basically the same display (inst panel) software, although smaller display (some may prefer) for M3

Many might find the MS body design old and out of style, given the newer look of the M3, e.g. similar to the new
iPhone 8/X (minor differences for some to the 7) and why some always prefer the newer one, besides it's cheaper.
It's always more impressive when you can park the latest Tesla next to your neighbor's old looking MS.

Come to think of it, the M3 is basically a replacement to most for the MS at a lower price!

I can't disagree with anything you're saying, but I'll belabor the point that most people who buy "luxury" cars don't care about all that stuff. They buy the 7 series because it's more expensive. A small number of people appreciate the features and performance of these cars, but most just buy it as a status symbol. That's the case with the current S model anyway. I live in South Florida where the Tesla to Leaf ratio is 10-1. I know several people who have one and they could give a crap about the technology or the environmental aspect of it.

You make a very good point about the model 3 hurting the S sales because it has more modern design and the S is starting to seem a little stale. This will be Tesla's biggest challenge. Releasing new models while keeping their current ones fresh. Also the ability to quickly respond to changing demands. The 2010 (I think) civic is a good example. Honda released it - it was a dud - and they released an all new design within one year. Tesla can't do that right now.
 
The S and 3 are very different cars. anyone that wants more performance and MUCH more room would need an S. The 3 is quite small and no where as functional space wise. I would not call the 3 more modern, the dash has a more minimalist design but saying the S is stale is a bit subjective, in fact many people prefer the S design. I frankly find the lines as more basic at least seeing them side by side. The s will have some changes in the future and will be segmented like any other car line.
 
EVDRIVER said:
The S and 3 are very different cars. anyone that wants more performance and MUCH more room would need an S. The 3 is quite small and no where as functional space wise. I would not call the 3 more modern, the dash has a more minimalist design but saying the S is stale is a bit subjective, in fact many people prefer the S design. I frankly find the lines as more basic at least seeing them side by side. The s will have some changes in the future and will be segmented like any other car line.

Agreed, which is why I don't expect the 3 to cannibalize the S.

On the other point - The model S is 7 years old. I'd say it qualifies as "Stale".
 
EVDRIVER said:
The S and 3 are very different cars. anyone that wants more performance and MUCH more room would need an S. The 3 is quite small and no where as functional space wise. I would not call the 3 more modern, the dash has a more minimalist design but saying the S is stale is a bit subjective, in fact many people prefer the S design. I frankly find the lines as more basic at least seeing them side by side. The s will have some changes in the future and will be segmented like any other car line.
I suppose I am an exception — especially in a Model 3 thread — but I like pretty much everything about the Model S better than the Model 3 except for the cost. I am leaning toward replacing my S60 with another CPO S with a larger battery (for faster Supercharging, since most of my miles are long road trips). The main advantages of the 3 would be the chance to get a new car and to take advantage of my state tax credit to further reduce the cost — I don't qualify for the federal tax credit because I am too low income. While that is tempting the S just offers so much more:

• Larger size means much more cargo space; it is trivial to put a large mountain bike in my S. It makes for a great camping vehicle. I've even been able to put a ten foot length of electrical conduit in my car — it fit fine. Since I went to just one car in a two car garage — no ICEV needed anymore thanks to the Supercharger network — the size isn't a problem at home and I have lots of garage space left over.

• I really like the S instrument cluster — best I've had on any car — and I prefer the larger vertically oriented center display screen — on road trips I have nav on top and the energy projection plot on the bottom. Again, most of my miles are road trips so this stuff matters to me.

• The S warranty is better than the 3 warranty since it covers the drive train for eight years. The 3 warranty on the battery only is also limited in mileage, which is not the case with the larger battery versions of the Model S.

• Free Supercharging. With my miles that does add up, although the main benefit is more in just not having to even think about fuel costs for a long trip. I've Supercharged my S60 at least 156 times, all of them on road trips since the nearest Supercharger Station is 98 miles from my mountain home.


For my purposes the Model 3 has these advantages:

• Lower cost. This would include a $5000 state tax credit, possible lower insurance cost (not sure), perhaps lower repair costs should that be necessary (again, not sure), possible lower annual registration costs (although not likely to be much compared to another CPO S of similar value). Likely slightly lower tire costs.

• Perhaps more reliable since it is was designed to be a simpler vehicle so possibly fewer repairs needed. This remains to be seen, of course.

• More efficient, so lower electricity use per mile, not that I pay for electricity at home anyway due to solar panels and reliable public charge stations here (paid for by the Colorado plug-in car registration fee). This is offset by having to pay for Supercharging, so the better efficiency of the smaller Model 3 is more of a "green" less-wasting-of-energy thing.


Some things are pretty much a wash:

• The Model S has superb handling and performance on the steep mountain hairpin turns that I drive every time I leave home. I expect the Model 3 to be similar.

• I find both the Model S and the Model 3 to be attractive cars, although I don't really care about such things.


I suppose mine is a minority view. For many people a smaller car is better adapted to urban areas with narrow streets and limited parking and that would be a significant advantage of the Model 3.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
It does seem like the whole thing is a good 90 days behind where I thought it was, not like they were really ready to start volume production this quarter.

...which actually is a good 270 days ahead of where I thought it was when I put my deposit down! When Tesla originally revealed the Model 3 and said late 2017 availability, I (and probably a large number of other people) thought, "Yeah, right, maybe late 2018 based on Tesla's track record".

Now thanks to many tweets and the need to hit a very aggressive "production" date of July 2017, they have technically started "production", but even with a slower ramp than what Elon tweeted, they are still WAY ahead of my initial expectations.

I suspect that whatever issues they are having are nowhere near as dire as the articles edakotarun digs up would have you believe. Are they essentially running part of their production line manually due to issues? Probably. But I certainly don't expect that to be a long term situation and the ramp will come. The counter-argument is that Tesla has built up a giant Potemkin Village with the Model 3 (I've even heard the claim that the entire Gigafactory is one as well). While that could very well be true, it's quite an extraordinary claim and I think the chances of that being the case are remote. I'm also not clear what the motivation of making that accusation without reliable inside knowledge, beyond trying to drive down share price because you've shorted the stock, or just to be a general troll on the forum. Whatever the reason, it is interesting that some people continue to predict doom & gloom and then just find something else to complain about when their theory is proven false.
 
lpickup said:
...which actually is a good 270 days ahead of where I thought it was when I put my deposit down!
True, I just figured it would be different this time, that they would have gained experience in production and this being their "mass market" offering and all
lpickup said:
...has built up a giant Potemkin Village...
I had to look that one up. It's never a bad day when you get a little smarter :)
lpickup said:
I'm also not clear what the motivation of making that accusation without reliable inside knowledge, beyond trying to drive down share price because you've shorted the stock, or just to be a general troll on the forum. Whatever the reason, it is interesting that some people continue to predict doom & gloom and then just find something else to complain about when their theory is proven false.
Could be any of a variety of things that motivate people to say negative things. It isn't my intent to be negative, more questioning and trying to come up with a realistic assessment. I'd like to get another EV at some point, and since the new Leaf (apparently) isn't going to have TMS and no DCFC to speak of here I'm hoping Tesla can come through in the not too distant future. I *could* get a model S but it's just too big a risk at this point in my life. (In the meantime there may still be a gen 1 Leaf falling in my lap)
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
lpickup said:
...which actually is a good 270 days ahead of where I thought it was when I put my deposit down!
True, I just figured it would be different this time, that they would have gained experience in production and this being their "mass market" offering and all

Yes, I took that into account, estimating only a one year delay as opposed to two! ;)
 
dgpcolorado said:
EVDRIVER said:
The S and 3 are very different cars. anyone that wants more performance and MUCH more room would need an S. The 3 is quite small and no where as functional space wise. I would not call the 3 more modern, the dash has a more minimalist design but saying the S is stale is a bit subjective, in fact many people prefer the S design. I frankly find the lines as more basic at least seeing them side by side. The s will have some changes in the future and will be segmented like any other car line.
I suppose I am an exception — especially in a Model 3 thread — but I like pretty much everything about the Model S better than the Model 3 except for the cost. I am leaning toward replacing my S60 with another CPO S with a larger battery (for faster Supercharging, since most of my miles are long road trips). The main advantages of the 3 would be the chance to get a new car and to take advantage of my state tax credit to further reduce the cost — I don't qualify for the federal tax credit because I am too low income. While that is tempting the S just offers so much more:

• Larger size means much more cargo space; it is trivial to put a large mountain bike in my S. It makes for a great camping vehicle. I've even been able to put a ten foot length of electrical conduit in my car — it fit fine. Since I went to just one car in a two car garage — no ICEV needed anymore thanks to the Supercharger network — the size isn't a problem at home and I have lots of garage space left over.

• I really like the S instrument cluster — best I've had on any car — and I prefer the larger vertically oriented center display screen — on road trips I have nav on top and the energy projection plot on the bottom. Again, most of my miles are road trips so this stuff matters to me.

• The S warranty is better than the 3 warranty since it covers the drive train for eight years. The 3 warranty on the battery only is also limited in mileage, which is not the case with the larger battery versions of the Model S.

• Free Supercharging. With my miles that does add up, although the main benefit is more in just not having to even think about fuel costs for a long trip. I've Supercharged my S60 at least 156 times, all of them on road trips since the nearest Supercharger Station is 98 miles from my mountain home.


For my purposes the Model 3 has these advantages:

• Lower cost. This would include a $5000 state tax credit, possible lower insurance cost (not sure), perhaps lower repair costs should that be necessary (again, not sure), possible lower annual registration costs (although not likely to be much compared to another CPO S of similar value). Likely slightly lower tire costs.

• Perhaps more reliable since it is was designed to be a simpler vehicle so possibly fewer repairs needed. This remains to be seen, of course.

• More efficient, so lower electricity use per mile, not that I pay for electricity at home anyway due to solar panels and reliable public charge stations here (paid for by the Colorado plug-in car registration fee). This is offset by having to pay for Supercharging, so the better efficiency of the smaller Model 3 is more of a "green" less-wasting-of-energy thing.


Some things are pretty much a wash:

• The Model S has superb handling and performance on the steep mountain hairpin turns that I drive every time I leave home. I expect the Model 3 to be similar.

• I find both the Model S and the Model 3 to be attractive cars, although I don't really care about such things.


I suppose mine is a minority view. For many people a smaller car is better adapted to urban areas with narrow streets and limited parking and that would be a significant advantage of the Model 3.

Good analysis! Wonder if Elon has given as much thought to the issue?
 
I don't qualify for the federal tax credit because I am too low income

You don't pay $7,500 in taxes, but you can afford an $80,000 car???? I know this isn't a personal finance forum, but there's something wrong with this picture.
 
webb14leafs said:
I don't qualify for the federal tax credit because I am too low income

You don't pay $7,500 in taxes, but you can afford an $80,000 car???? I know this isn't a personal finance forum, but there's something wrong with this picture.
Most likely there is something very wrong with the picture. But we should also give him the benefit of the doubt. If he ascertains much of his wealth through real estate then it is very possible to not show a very large income on your tax return. And to be fair, if he is buying CPO he may be buying only in the $40-50k range. But still, I agree it seems a little off.
 
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