2016 Leaf: How many kWh needed, and at what price?

[jlsoaz]

Anything can happen in the next 3 years, but so far Toyota seems to have little or no interest in expanding the RAV-4 EV's sales territory outside of California. While Toyota is offering manufacturer cash in SOME (but not all) CA counties ($10k in the case of some SoCal zip codes), their lease deals aren't all that attractive. Unlike Nissan, Toyota does not pass along the full, if any of, the $7500 Federal tax credit if you lease.

I would gladly lease a RAV-4 EV for as much as $299/month.

Thanks for this improved information about the Toyota RAV4 EV.

I would have leased one for up to $400 or $500/month (clarification: this would need to be the final actual monthly price I'm paying, not just the advertised monthly), and the usual $2k or $3k down, while waiting for prices to come down even further on something else.

By 2016 or so, I'm guessing - there may be one or more BEVs with the specs of the present day RAV4 EV for lease below $500/month.

 

[jlsoaz]

It seems that US Leaf leases/sales for March will be very strong (just reading articles around the net about this) around 1900 units. For purposes of this thread, I am wondering if it could be argued that a significant part of the equation is that this is evidence of how potential Leaf lessees and purchasers are responding to comparatively small price drops and range increases. Perhaps unlikely, but I wonder if a useful equation could be extrapolated that might help indicate how potential lessees and purchasers would respond to 100+ miles EPA range for $x dollars in a Leaf.

On another topic that has come up in this thread, I am guessing that over the next few years the manufacturing cost of finished battery packs will come down below $500/kWh. I would gladly have paid an extra $5000 or $8000, built into my monthly lease payments, for as many more kWh as I could get for that money, especially if (in the future?) they could have been preserved through good Arizona-class TMS. So, I guess I'm saying that I'm not sure the price of an extra 10 or 15 kWh of quality Leaf traction batteries is that prohibitive now, or in 3 years, at least for some of us in our own personal microeconomic equation.

Two reasons I feel I can tolerate a somewhat higher per month price than I am paying at present:

1. I would have gladly paid more per month if only Nissan (or anyone) had offered an option for a hiqh-quality BEV with energy storage in the 25-40 kWh area (the CODA was there, but came with the quality, value-holding and service questions one associates with a small-upstart unproven company, and the RAV4 Toyota if I recall was not that inviting about my trying to buy or lease it from out of state)
2. the hidden cost of the Leaf right now for me is that I have to maintain two cars, and a 100+ mile BEV with good TMS, etc., will allow me to get rid of my second car and save significant money each month..... I'll estimate $50 to $100 offhand, and also second car is not that nice, so I would be much happier and a bit safer with a full-time cutting-edge BEV.

However, the present Leaf seems designed for the weight and structure of its present 24 kWh battery. I am not sure it can be readily modified for more. I am also not sure what this "LE" effort is that others have mentioned.

I guess a big part of getting a Leaf for me in 2012 was acting on the principle of "My next car will have a plug" (as it happened, that was 10 years after my previous car purchase).

I guess part of getting an EV for me circa 2016 (when my Leaf lease is up) is: "My next car will have a plug, and, if it's a BEV and not a PHEV, then it will have 100+ miles range, and probably have TMS and related battery-life expectations, and it may have a hefty price, but not up in the $50k-$60k MSRP range where such vehicles presently start here in 2013 H1."

 

[KeiJidosha]

In a LEAF size C-segment, 4mi/kWh at 65, heat pump HVAC car, I’d want a 30kWh usable battery. I’d pay $500/usable kWh over current LEAF pricing, or a $5k premium. I could live with this vehicle, including it’s 30% over 10 year/150k mile battery degradation.

 

[cwerdna]

Anything can happen in the next 3 years, but so far Toyota seems to have little or no interest in expanding the RAV-4 EV's sales territory outside of California. While Toyota is offering manufacturer cash in SOME (but not all) CA counties ($10k in the case of some SoCal zip codes), their lease deals aren't all that attractive. Unlike Nissan, Toyota does not pass along the full, if any of, the $7500 Federal tax credit if you lease.

I would gladly lease a RAV-4 EV for as much as $299/month.

Thanks for this improved information about the Toyota RAV4 EV.

I would have leased one for up to $400 or $500/month (clarification: this would need to be the final actual monthly price I'm paying, not just the advertised monthly), and the usual $2k or $3k down, while waiting for prices to come down even further on something else.

You can see the huge incentives Toyota's putting on the Rav4 EV by going to http://www.buyatoyota.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and putting in a So Cal zip like 90024.

Their lease deals are pretty crappy compared to a Leaf and yes, likely because of Toyota not passing on the full $7500 Federal tax credit savings.

Back to purchasing a Rav4 EV, $10K incentive couped w/$10K worth of tax incentives/rebates ($7.5K Fed and $2.5K CVRP) and dealers discounting makes the price not seem as horrific as the MSRP.

I am also not sure what this "LE" effort is that others have mentioned.

http://www.infinitiusa.com/Infiniti-LE-Concept/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The concept vehicle was shown at Pebble Beach Concours late last year. I saw it. Google for infiniti le electric pebble beach.

I too would like to see more battery capacity in the Leaf, as an option. If it could achieve Rav4 EV-like EPA numbers and had TMS, that'd be great!

My goofy situation that I've posted at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=135203#p135203" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and others a bunch of times is why I have no Leaf yet. If I lived closer to everything and potential workplaces, the Leaf's range would work for me. The Rav4 EV's range is likely sufficient for me (any further workplace would be too far for me anyway) but would rather lease except that the Rav's lease pricing is high.

 

[TonyWilliams]

100 miles of real winter miles for $30,000.

That's about what the Rav4 is now, with subsides and $10k Toyota discount.

$50k MSRP
-7.5k Fed tax credit
-2.5k California rebate (Colorado $6k, West Virginia $7.5k, etc)
-10k Toyota cash

$30k net cost plus taxes

Range: 142 miles at 65mph, with TMS so that winter doesn't kill range

103 miles EPA range

Shipped from California to any state in the lower 48 states for $500 - $1500

NOTE: two bad things:

1. High power sucking 6kW heater (same as LEAF except heat pump models)
2. No DC quick charge

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I think we wont see much more range ina LEAF e er. It fills the need of itstarget segment qiuite well. If u want longer range, simply select one of Nissans other EV options that has therange u want which will most likely be a sedan

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I think we wont see much more range ina LEAF e er. It fills the need of itstarget segment qiuite well. If u want longer range, simply select one of Nissans other EV options that has therange u want which will most likely be a sedan

Or any of the many EV models offered by other manufacturers... oh wait there aren't any.

 

[LakeLeaf]

I think there are two independent variables here, and a third that is a combination of the two.

Interesting ranges for an EV I'd suggest are:

miles.................meets of the needs of
current (70)........10% ?
100....................25% ?
250....................90% ??
500....................99% ?

I'd say there is a rapid diminishing return after 500 miles as some experienced drives could easily push this to 700, and there aren't a whole lot of people who regularly push 500 miles in a day.

The second is the price:

price..............affordable by
$15K.............. 99% ?
$20K.............. 90% ?
$30K.............. 50% ??
$50K ............. 10% ?
$100K ............ 1% ?

So I think the title is just right! Clearly a 500 mile range EV for $15K would be a very popular car, while a $100k EV with 100 mile range has a limited audience (see Tesla).

My guess is that something in the 250 mile range for $25k would be pretty successful, but I don't think we'll get there by 2016. But we won't be hugely off that mark on both price and range.

 

[jlsoaz]

I think we wont see much more range ina LEAF e er. It fills the need of itstarget segment qiuite well. If u want longer range, simply select one of Nissans other EV options that has therange u want which will most likely be a sedan

Or any of the many EV models offered by other manufacturers... oh wait there aren't any.

There are one or two other good around-town BEVs, .... they are slowly coming into the marketplace, but there are none as yet that fall into that present grey area of 25 to 40 kWh (except CODA which I think has/had too many question marks for many to consider when they went to buy or lease).

I had forgotten about the Infiniti LE, but if I recall, when they announced it, they indicated using the same 24 kWh as a Leaf. I took this as a non-starter... is there any way that a really excellent (Infiniti-caliber) luxury BEV could settle for this amount of kWh? In 2012? Maybe. As the years pass? Less-and-less. I assumed that
- either Nissan will not come out with this vehicle or that,
- by the time they do, they will get the message that 24 kWh is not enough,
- or that Nissan will come out with it at 24 kWh but it will then have issues
- or that I am wrong about 24 kWh not being enough.

One thing about the Leaf is that Nissan does not seem to be building modularity or flexibility on kWh into it. Ok, maybe that's part of the Leaf being the tangibly high-quality high-integrity vehicle product that I like, but I think going forward Nissan will need to think through either future Leaf models having more kWh, or other vehicle models.

 

[jlsoaz]

100 miles of real winter miles for $30,000.

That's about what the Rav4 is now, with subsides and $10k Toyota discount.

$50k MSRP
-7.5k Fed tax credit
-2.5k California rebate (Colorado $6k, West Virginia $7.5k, etc)
-10k Toyota cash

$30k net cost plus taxes

Range: 142 miles at 65mph, with TMS so that winter doesn't kill range

103 miles EPA range

Shipped from California to any state in the lower 48 states for $500 - $1500

NOTE: two bad things:

1. High power sucking 6kW heater (same as LEAF except heat pump models)
2. No DC quick charge

I have mixed feelings as to this update on information provided by you and cwerdna because it's making me realize that if I had been able to hold out just a few more months, I would have been able to get this vehicle. In August-September of 2012 when I was shopping in earnest, both Toyota and Ford were at the point where in my estimation they were "taking their sweet time". I thought that Ford might bring down monthly lease charges on the FFE, and improve availability to me, but it was too little too late, and I was done speculating.

Likewise, Toyota was not at that time offering such sweet deals, nor sufficient availability, on the RAV4 EV. If I had to make the choice today, there's no doubt I would go for a lease or finance deal on a RAV4 EV. If I run into family or friends who ask me what to get, for my updated recommendation, I will put them toward the Toyota.

As to Toyota in general, I have only done vague homework on this, but my impression was that they were implying that demand for the RAV4 EV at that initial MSRP price-point was poor. This angered me, as does the fact that I think the company has evidenced a commitment against making this a true production vehicle. Some of this we're-just-not-into-this seems like shades of 2000 all-over-again. I do like the fact that they have invested in Tesla and have developed a strong relationship with them.

As Toyota goes through the motions of "trying to sell" the excellent-looking RAV4 EV, where they've artificially limited production to 2600 vehicles, if there is a pick-up in sales in a strong way (despite the impediments to sales that Toyota has created by notionally only featuring it for sale in California and by maintaining the notional $50k MSRP so it may not be apparent to all that in effect, for now, the vehicle costs ~$40k pre-government incentives), I wonder at what point they could be persuaded to change what is apparently their internal tune. Their internal line seems (to me.... maybe I have misinterpreted) to be "we aren't really into making this vehicle". At a pre-gov-incentive $40k though, I wonder if at some point real-world demand will pick up markedly, and if, then, the company would decide to re-assess, or try to ignore the demand pick-up (as would have happened if this were 2002).

Toyota might well say that their manufacturing costs exceed the present effective ~$40k pre-gov-incentive MSRP. I don't know by how much this might be true, nor how much those mfg cost numbers might be driven down by mass production.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Before u start lamenting the loss of the RAV, let me tell u about this month in my lowly LEAF. 8 times this month i exceeded 100 miles including one day at 132. Considering its winter, it would have been a challenge for the RAV to do this especially on to separate times where my work schedule did not allow time for an L2 charge. The one day i did 113 miles which is well within the RAVs range, i only had 3 hours to charge from A 70 mile day so needless to say, i did plug in at home for the 2 hours plus that i was at home but QC'd the rest of the day. My schedule simply did not allow any other option

 

[jspearman]

We drove the Leaf for 18 months, and I think around 21K miles. We've had the Volt and RAV4EV for about two months, and around 2,000 miles each. I can say with a high degree of confidence that 40kW is the sweet spot for us. We've yet to charge to 100%, and I haven't had one moment of range anxiety. After incentives and tax rebates, I think we paid around 35K, which is a little high, but we are very happy with the car and would buy another in a heartbeat.

The Volt has worked out well, too, but we could easily live our lives with two RAV4's. I've yet to put gas in the car, and I've only driven a total of about 100 miles using gas, but it's always a huge bummer when you hear that gas motor kick in. I would be very interested in the BMW i3 with its longer range and extender, since it's range would likely give me no reason to fire up the extender except the rarest of occasions.

So my answer is 40kW, and I think the price needs to be around $25K for widespread adoption, but with the caveat that the car needs to have a more efficient heater and L3 charging.

 

[TonyWilliams]

... The one day i did 113 miles which is well within the RAVs range, i only had 3 hours to charge from A 70 mile day so needless to say, i did plug in at home for the 2 hours plus that i was at home but QC'd the rest of the day. My schedule simply did not allow any other option

With an additional two hours of plugging in at home, the Rav4 would add about 58 miles to the 142 mile range at 65mph.

200 mile range in that scenario, and I wouldn't need to stop at any QC's for the rest of the day. In a more apples to apples comparison, both cars unrefueled at 65mph will go 84 and 142 miles respectively.

The Rav4 will likely be within a handful of miles of that 142 range in Phoenix in a few years, and the LEAF will likely have a 20-30% reduction in range.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Toyota might well say that their manufacturing costs exceed the present effective ~$40k pre-gov-incentive MSRP. I don't know by how much this might be true, nor how much those mfg cost numbers might be driven down by mass production.

Toyota can't "mass produce" a 2012 model car. The manufacturing costs are $38k JUST FOR THE TESLA BITS of the drivetrain.

They lose money even at full price.

They will not make more than 2600, period. They won't be sold outside California, unless some deal could be made to sell in other CARB states to comply with California rules.

If CARB rules were relaxed, Toyota would stop the cash cow program post haste.

 

[cwerdna]

As to Toyota in general, I have only done vague homework on this, but my impression was that they were implying that demand for the RAV4 EV at that initial MSRP price-point was poor. This angered me, as does the fact that I think the company has evidenced a commitment against making this a true production vehicle. Some of this we're-just-not-into-this seems like shades of 2000 all-over-again. I do like the fact that they have invested in Tesla and have developed a strong relationship with them.

As Toyota goes through the motions of "trying to sell" the excellent-looking RAV4 EV, where they've artificially limited production to 2600 vehicles, if there is a pick-up in sales in a strong way (despite the impediments to sales that Toyota has created by notionally only featuring it for sale in California and by maintaining the notional $50k MSRP so it may not be apparent to all that in effect, for now, the vehicle costs ~$40k pre-government incentives), I wonder at what point they could be persuaded to change what is apparently their internal tune. Their internal line seems (to me.... maybe I have misinterpreted) to be "we aren't really into making this vehicle". At a pre-gov-incentive $40k though, I wonder if at some point real-world demand will pick up markedly, and if, then, the company would decide to re-assess, or try to ignore the demand pick-up (as would have happened if this were 2002)....

Tony's posted about why Toyota's doing the Rav4 EV at all (part of their CA ZEV compliance) at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=3281&p=246544&hilit=zev+compliance#p246544" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

There's also http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6853" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; re: CARB rules.

This explains why a bunch of other current/upcoming EVs are also CA mainly/only. Examples of some AT-PZEVs are (CARB spec in all cases) 2004+ spec Prius, Camry Hybrids, Ford Fusion Hybrid, defunct '07 to '11 Nissan Altima Hybrid. Examples of eAT-PZEVs: Plug-in Prius, newer 2012 and beyond Chevy Volts (http://green.autoblog.com/2011/11/16/new-enhat-pzev-chevy-volt-ready-for-california-hov-access-extra/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false, Accord Plug-in Hybrid, etc.

As for poor Rav4 EV demand... well, the sales are still pretty poor. Look at http://www.hybridcars.com/market-dashboard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. It'll be interesting to see how much they pick up for March 2013 given the strong incentives now.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

... The one day i did 113 miles which is well within the RAVs range, i only had 3 hours to charge from A 70 mile day so needless to say, i did plug in at home for the 2 hours plus that i was at home but QC'd the rest of the day. My schedule simply did not allow any other option

With an additional two hours of plugging in at home, the Rav4 would add about 58 miles to the 142 mile range at 65mph.

200 mile range in that scenario, and I wouldn't need to stop at any QC's for the rest of the day. In a more apples to apples comparison, both cars unrefueled at 65mph will go 84 and 142 miles respectively.

The Rav4 will likely be within a handful of miles of that 142 range in Phoenix in a few years, and the LEAF will likely have a 20-30% reduction in range.

for someone who lives in an area where there is a typical 50+ º temperature variation from season to season, the RAV would not have traveled 142 miles.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I think we wont see much more range ina LEAF e er. It fills the need of itstarget segment qiuite well. If u want longer range, simply select one of Nissans other EV options that has therange u want which will most likely be a sedan

While "ever" is bit much, I tend to agree with you for the next few years. Nissan was trying to walk the fine line between enough range to have utility as a commuter car but not so much that the cost was too high, given current battery technology. I think they did pretty well. (Am I really the only one who thinks that?)

Would I like a bit more range? Sure. Would I be willing to pay a lot more for it? Probably not, since I really had to stretch my budget to buy my current LEAF.

It would make some sense to leave the LEAF as it is and introduce longer range EV models for those willing to pay. But I do hope and expect that Nissan will switch to a better battery chemistry at some point to somewhat reduce the capacity loss problems.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I think we wont see much more range ina LEAF e er. It fills the need of itstarget segment qiuite well. If u want longer range, simply select one of Nissans other EV options that has therange u want which will most likely be a sedan

While "ever" is bit much, I tend to agree with you for the next few years. Nissan was trying to walk the fine line between enough range to have utility as a commuter car but not so much that the cost was too high, given current battery technology. I think they did pretty well. (Am I really the only one who thinks that?)

Would I like a bit more range? Sure. Would I be willing to pay a lot more for it? Probably not, since I really had to stretch my budget to buy my current LEAF.

It would make some sense to leave the LEAF as it is and introduce longer range EV models for those willing to pay. But I do hope and expect that Nissan will switch to a better battery chemistry at some point to somewhat reduce the capacity loss problems.

actually i fully believe "ever" to be correct. Nissan understands that more range is desired but at the same time, the LEAF works VERY well for the segment it was designed for. there are few (or relatively few) owners that have not found a way to make the car work. but they are early adopters who are willing to "work at" making it work but realistically, its not that much work.

Now Nissan's next move will be to bring in more of the "middle of the road" consumer who is naturally apprehensive to the limitations of the unknown (notice i did not say EVs...) and that will NOT TO BE CHANGING WHAT ALREADY WORKS but to add something that will.

Ford did not stop making SUVs because crew cab pickups out sold them 3 to 1 now did they? they realized that there is a segment that does not want the bed just as Nissan realizes there are people who want an EV with longer range that is more "vanilla" and "more sedanish" and "less standoutish"

get the picture? the LEAF is not changing significantly EVER. Nissan is and will be adding to the EV lineup and doing it probably quicker than we realize.

as far as "stretching the budget" a few things that will happen and of this i am about as certain as one can be concerning things that have yet to pass (reading too many Hobbit press releases i think )

* you will get more range for the same money you are paying today

*your current LEAF will be cheaper in the future.

 

[jlsoaz]

...
Would I like a bit more range? Sure. Would I be willing to pay a lot more for it? Probably not, since I really had to stretch my budget to buy my current LEAF.

It would make some sense to leave the LEAF as it is and introduce longer range EV models for those willing to pay. But I do hope and expect that Nissan will switch to a better battery chemistry at some point to somewhat reduce the capacity loss problems.

From my standpoint, in communicating to Nissan, I am not after whether they offer a higher-kWh Leaf or a different Nissan, I just would like to communicate to them that for my next vehicle lease or purchase, it will either be a BEV with more kWh and the other qualities discussed here, or a PHEV (probably would require one that runs renewable fuel).

The 24 kWh number seems (very approximately, for the moment) hard-wired into the Leaf, so I don't know if they can alter that in the future in any substantial way under the Leaf model name, but I was using the "Leaf" name in the thread title just to stay focused and as a simplification, not to imply that it is important to me as a driver whether the vehicle is called "Leaf" or something else.

 

[dgpcolorado]

actually i fully believe "ever" to be correct. Nissan understands that more range is desired but at the same time, the LEAF works VERY well for the segment it was designed for. there are few (or relatively few) owners that have not found a way to make the car work. but they are early adopters who are willing to "work at" making it work but realistically, its not that much work.

Now Nissan's next move will be to bring in more of the "middle of the road" consumer who is naturally apprehensive to the limitations of the unknown (notice i did not say EVs...) and that will NOT TO BE CHANGING WHAT ALREADY WORKS but to add something that will.

Ford did not stop making SUVs because crew cab pickups out sold them 3 to 1 now did they? they realized that there is a segment that does not want the bed just as Nissan realizes there are people who want an EV with longer range that is more "vanilla" and "more sedanish" and "less standoutish"

get the picture? the LEAF is not changing significantly EVER. Nissan is and will be adding to the EV lineup and doing it probably quicker than we realize.

as far as "stretching the budget" a few things that will happen and of this i am about as certain as one can be concerning things that have yet to pass (reading too many Hobbit press releases i think )

* you will get more range for the same money you are paying today

*your current LEAF will be cheaper in the future.

"I think we wont see much more range in a LEAF ever."

But, what if battery technology (or even aerodynamics) changes to the point that longer range can be added at minimal cost? Would they really leave the LEAF at 70 miles range? I have my doubts.

The other notion I have is more of a quibble: I assume that Nissan will make the "LEAF" a family of vehicles someday much as Toyota has done with the Prius. If that happens, then there might well be LEAF models with multiple range options. But retain a plain vanilla LEAF option with 70 mile range? Perhaps you are correct about that. However, it remains to be seen whether the 70 mile LEAF will achieve widespread adoption. [Don't forget that your usage pattern, with an extensive DCFC infrastructure to rely on, is way, way outside the mainstream for most areas of the country!]