At what price would you purchase a LEAF instead of lease?

[Klayfish]

Sorry for all the threads, but I want to fully research this and make the best decision for me. I know all the arguments for leasing, and I'm in complete agreement. But I'm curious, at what price point would you purchase the LEAF? If someone offered you a brand new LEAF for $5000, that would be a no brainer. Obviously, that would never happen. But how low would the price have to get before you decided to buy? With the $7500 from the government and the $3500 I'd get from the state of PA, that's $11,000. If you can chew a dealer down pretty far on an S (or even SV), which I'm sure you could, I'll bet you could purchase one for $15-$16k after all rebates. For me, I could easily put 18-20k miles/year on the car between my commute to work and all the local errands we run (taking the kids to soccer, etc...).

I'm very much leaning towards lease, but just kicking ideas around. Thoughts?

 

[davewill]

Really none. No matter how low the price you negotiate, it would mean the lease price and the residual after the lease, are lower too,. I will basically buy one once I see a way to drive it for 120,000+ miles. Right now*, I can't because of the battery degradation...so I'll lease it as cheap as possible.

* The battery lease program may become that, but with the size pack we have now, 4 bars is probably too low a warranty to make it work.

 

[cgaydos]

Given Colorado's $6k tax credit on top of the $7500 federal credit I would find it hard to justify a lease on a 2013. So that kind of answers the question - for $6k less purchase price I'd buy.

Of course, were I in Phoenix or a place with similar temperatures I would not buy, period. I'd probably not lease either - I'd probably look at a lease on a Ford Focus Electric which also has great discounts and has a TMS to protect the battery.

Note that although I have both leased and bought LEAFs both of those transactions involved very specific, very unusual, and very favorable financial details. Neither of those situations is available today on 2013s.

 

[braineo]

Anytime you can get a new car for 15k makes sense to buy. Got my 2011 SL for 26k and after 12,500 federal and Georgia tax credit made it a no brainer. A few months late a dealer in MD sold a few 2012 SL for 22k. Almost bought my second Leaf.

Note - The Leaf is perfect for my daily commute and local travel needs even with 30% less range.

There are no gas cars for $15k worth buying.

 

[TickTock]

Given the warranty and the $100/mo option to extend it indefinitely after that, there really is no reason to categorically dismiss owning - even in Phoenix as long as your daily use is less than 60 miles. Just need to weigh in that $100/mo for those years after the initial 5 into your formula. For me, there is no price I would ever lease a car (well, I suppose if it was a REALLY good deal I'd consider it).

 

[WetEV]

But I'm curious, at what price point would you purchase the LEAF?

I bought my Leaf. The lease deal wasn't interesting at the time I bought it.

Leasing is lower risk, and for some the tax rebates favor leasing. Leasing is a more complex transaction, and there are many ways that it might cost you more money. You should expect that leasing is usually a more expensive way to drive a car. Not always, having since seen a crazy good leasing deal.

If you live in a cool climate and have a commute of 30 to 40 miles round trip the 120k miles that davewill requests is reasonable for at least some people. Look at the Wiki, and notice that at 12,500 miles per year in Seattle with an expected battery life of 12.8 years the battery life is expected to be 160k miles to 70%. A commute of 40 miles should be reasonable on a 70% battery. So in 2025, any guess as to getting a replacement battery for a Leaf? The bad news comes out first, we (hopefully) will hear about the good news in years to come.

The actual life of a battery is fairly complex. Too short or too long of daily drive both will reduce the total distance the battery will last. Too short of distance, and calendar loss predominates. Too long of distance, and cycling loss gets larger per mile as the range of SOC increases, and the EOL percentage needs to be higher than the usual 70%.

 

[jhm614]

Because I am in Texas and assuming reasonable prices, i.e. not $9,995, I would not buy due to battery degradation. However, I would lease.

 

[Assaf]

At what price would you purchase a LEAF instead of lease??

Great question, precisely the one we faced (and answered within a single weekend) when we got our Leaf in August 2012.

With EVs, for me the factor driving the answer was the technology's immaturity/uncertainty, or - to put it in a more positive way - its current rate of development.

Like wetEV who commented above, we live in the Seattle area and our daily driving needs are modest. So our 2012 Leaf would meet *most* of our driving needs for the foreseeable future with (hopefully) little battery depletion. However, it does not meet *all* our needs. If we want to say, drive to Vancouver BC or Portland, we'd have to stop twice on the way for DC charging. Add only 10-15 miles to the range (which the 2013 Leaf does) - and we can get to Vancouver with only 1 stop. Add 25-30 miles and the same is true for Portland. Each of these increases also greatly increases our ability for hiking day-trips in the Cascades, a favorite pastime for Seattle-area residents.

If getting these range increases with an EV was a pipe-dream, then I'd settle for what we have indefinitely (meaning, of course, using an ICE car for all these more adventurous trips). But EV technology is rapidly improving, and Nissan despite its leadership role is far from being in control of it. Nissan will *have* to keep improving ranges, because there's an EV on the mass market with 3x-4x the range and free fast-charging. Fortunately for Nissan, this car now costs over twice as much as the Leaf, but if in 2017-2018 Tesla releases a 200-mile-range car for under $40k (pre-subsidies) while Leaf is still barely at 100 miles, the Leaf will become a low-end toast. There's competitive pressure from below as well, with a couple of subcompact 4-seaters somewhat cheaper than the Leaf and ranges some 10 miles longer than the 2013 Leaf already coming on the market. Nissan might still get decent sales on a 2014 model without range increases, but from 2015 onwards it will really have to start picking things up fast.

In short, this is both a matter of getting stuck with a less-useful anachronism, and (consequently) losing nearly all of its resale value. Combine that with the fact that Leaf leases are essentially interest-free, and my conclusion is clear-cut: if your driving needs are within the limitation of the lease terms, then a lease or lease-back deal is by far the better choice right now.

If you are going to be a high-mileage EV driver and therefore must buy your Leaf, you will likely recuperate your investment via savings in gas+maintenance $$ alone. But for the rest of us, right now lease is the way.

Hope this helps...

 

[TomT]

You would also have to be happy with a battery with only 9 capacity bars because, other than the first time, that is the maximum they will guarantee you... Based on my experiences with the battery, I would never buy a Leaf. The other consideration is that the $100 a month is roughly what my gas bill was prior to the Leaf so it becomes a marginal ROI at that point...

Given the warranty and the $100/mo option to extend it indefinitely after that, there really is no reason to categorically dismiss owning - even in Phoenix as long as your daily use is less than 60 miles. Just need to weigh in that $100/mo for those years after the initial 5 into your formula. For me, there is no price I would ever lease a car (well, I suppose if it was a REALLY good deal I'd consider it).

 

[TickTock]

You would also have to be happy with a battery with only 9 capacity bars

Yup - why I am qualifying it with <60 daily miles. New owners won't likely know what 9 bars mean, but knowing how many realistic miles they can expect puts it into terms anyone can understand. (I know, with gentle diving you can get more, I am just being conservative since Nissan has the optimistic angle covered ;-))

 

[Klayfish]

At what price would you purchase a LEAF instead of lease??

If you are going to be a high-mileage EV driver and therefore must buy your Leaf, you will likely recuperate your investment via savings in gas+maintenance $$ alone. But for the rest of us, right now lease is the way.

Hope this helps...

That's the reason we're still contemplating the idea of buying. I can drive the car as little as the 12k/year would allow. However, my wife I and did some math over the weekend. We could realistically drive the car 18-20k miles per year. That's a lot of fuel savings.

 

[TickTock]

At what price would you purchase a LEAF instead of lease??

If you are going to be a high-mileage EV driver and therefore must buy your Leaf, you will likely recuperate your investment via savings in gas+maintenance $$ alone. But for the rest of us, right now lease is the way.

Hope this helps...

That's the reason we're still contemplating the idea of buying. I can drive the car as little as the 12k/year would allow. However, my wife I and did some math over the weekend. We could realistically drive the car 18-20k miles per year. That's a lot of fuel savings.

How much of that is weekend driving? If you are doing 20K/year primarily on workdays, then you're talking ~75 miles per day which will be rather challenging on a single charge as you approach the warranty replacement trigger - especially in those PA winters. So the question is how many miles do you need to go each day between charges?

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Buying is not attractive at the moment, at any price they would be likely to offer.

Advances will continue to improve the cars, prices will come down, more variety will be available in future. Also, no long term equipment reliability track record as of yet, so who knows what repairs and replacements of these complicated components will cost once the warranty is up? Plus, resale values aren't promising in the current market. Better to lease for now.

Might reconsider buying if:

MA starts offering incentives.
The federal incentive becomes an instant rebate.
Gas prices go so high that EVs become hard to get, then could always buy out my lease.
A car/van/truck is offered that I like so much that I want to keep it for 10 years or more.

 

[doberman]

For me, that number was $19,000....I decided to buy a Used 2011, over Leasing (or buying) a 2013.

At $19k - the car is a good value, even with degradation.

 

[thankyouOB]

i bought mine at 20.5k, but i would not buy it now as nissan, under the SYB program, is refusing to sell a battery replacement.
instead they want to take my original battery and have me then pay $100 a month forever to replace it.

i would not choose to pay $100 a month to keep mine on the road. this is a bait-and-switch move by nissan.

i deplore it. perhaps, over time, they will announce a price. but had i known about SYB, i would have crossed nissan off my list of cars.

by the way, has anyone figured out how a LEAF owner who had leased a battery under SYB would later be able to sell the car?


*steal your battery

 

[Foible]

I didn't buy a Think when they got down to 8k, I'm not interested in buying a Leaf. (yet)

Right now the Leaf hasn't been around long enough to know what the long term cost of ownership is going to be. Batteries are one expense but what will happen to the electric motor in five or ten years? How expensive are those going to be to fix?

I also wouldn't want to own a Leaf with the fancy diagnostic and navigation display. It may look cool now but how clunky is it going to seem in only five years? The electronics in my wife's mid-80's Caddy are a joke but they were an expensive premium when that car was new.

 

[edatoakrun]

For me, that number was $19,000....I decided to buy a Used 2011, over Leasing (or buying) a 2013.

At $19k - the car is a good value, even with degradation.

Bingo!

Buying a used 2011-12 sure seems the right answer to me, unless you are in one of the high-subsidy areas like Georgia, Colorado, or California's San Joaquin Valley, who can actually buy new for ~ the same price as used.

If I hadn't been able to buy my LEAF so cheap ~27 months ago (with $5k back from CARB) I'd be in the market for a used one today.

New or used, just be sure to get the QC for future-proofing, even if you don't have the local DC charge sites today.

I finally got to fast-charge on a couple of Bay Area trips this spring.

Just using DC for those few days, came close to paying for my CHAdeMO port, as far as I'm concerned.

 

[davewill]

I didn't buy a Think when they got down to 8k, I'm not interested in buying a Leaf. (yet)

Right now the Leaf hasn't been around long enough to know what the long term cost of ownership is going to be. Batteries are one expense but what will happen to the electric motor in five or ten years? How expensive are those going to be to fix?

I also wouldn't want to own a Leaf with the fancy diagnostic and navigation display. It may look cool now but how clunky is it going to seem in only five years? The electronics in my wife's mid-80's Caddy are a joke but they were an expensive premium when that car was new.

Electric motors are actually quite reliable. I don't think they will become much of a source of worry. As far as the electronics, my 2005 Prius has a similar touch screen NAV unit, and it doesn't seem dated 8 years later, it is still very useful.

 

[adric22]

Basically it boils down to a payment I can afford. If I could do a 5 year loan with a monthly payment of less than $400, then I'd buy instead of lease. Most likely this price would be around $20,000 by the time you add in taxes and fees.

 

[georgia2013]

I am strongly considering buying a Leaf. Here is a quick breakdown of my analysis. I can buy a Leaf for $1,000 below invoice because of my company being on Nissan's "Friends and Family" Vehicle Purchase Program list, which means a 2013 S model would cost $25,986. After the federal credit of $7,500 and state (Georgia) credit of $5,000, my net cost to purchase would be $13,486! Financing this amount over 5 years would equate to a monthly payment of $236, which is roughly what I pay now per month for the gas in my current vehicle. I have a 70 mile round trip commute to work every day, but can charge for free at work (I work for a big energy utility so we have roughly 30 charging stations in our parking deck). I expect to put 20,000 miles on the Leaf each year, which means the 100,000 mile warranty on the battery will last for five years (same as the period I plan to finance). After taking all of this into consideration, the five year gas savings offsets the five year car payments total making my Leaf free. Does anyone see any bad assumptions in my analysis?