Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[cwerdna]

And maybe people who live in climates where automatic wipers would work well and are planning on letting the car drive itself everywhere anyway can't see why anyone would need a wiper stalk to easily control intermittent wipers. There are those who don't mind dealing with a voice interface to control everything, but there are those who I think would be annoyed if you had to talk to the car to do various things that previously could easily be done with a knob.

Regarding the bolded part, I wouldn't count on that in the next few years w/the Model 3 if the person doing a lot of driving in non-highway conditions. Sure, I expect autopilot to continue to improve but judging by https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/autonomous-car-progress.99413/page-5#post-2541464 and all sorts of missed timelines (divorce from Mobileye didn't help), I suspect Tesla is at least several years off from deploying on the Model 3 anything that's level 4 in the US and many years off from being level 5, in the US. Maybe we won't even see level 5 by Tesla within the typical lifetime of a Model 3 sold this year.

(Levels at https://web.archive.org/web/20170903105244/https://www.sae.org/misc/pdfs/automated_driving.pdf.)

And yes, I wouldn't want to have to use voice commands (which can be unreliable in noisy environments) to do things like adjust the wiper interval or adjust cruise control speeds.

 

[EVDRIVER]

No more degradation that in most normal use cases. My LEAF lost less than 1%.

 

[webeleafowners]

So has anyone seen whether the 3 will be available with heated steering wheel? Believe it or not this is important to us. We are a few years away but I can't find anything on it.

 

[edatoakrun]

Prognostications below indicate over 2,000 3's delivered in January, with production still under 1 k per week.

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/data-from-the-model-3-invites-spreadsheet.5678/

Well see what insideEVs has to say in a few days.

In any case, it is looking increasingly unlikely TSLA will hit the 200 k cumulative USA BEV deliveries limit for full $7.5 k tax credits this quarter, which may be (perversely) good news for TSLA's mid-term viability.

Reported below, an estimated 1,875 model 3's delivered in January.

Model S and X sales dwindled to only about 1500 in total.

The full $7,500 FTC for TSLA sales seems likely to be safe for at least the first three quarters of 2018.

https://insideevs.com/january-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

 

[dgpcolorado]

So has anyone seen whether the 3 will be available with heated steering wheel? Believe it or not this is important to us. We are a few years away but I can't find anything on it.

Not so far. It might be added later, perhaps in a cold weather package as is done with the S.

I miss my heated steering wheel from the LEAF but adapted by using touch screen gloves.

One thing that is different for longer range cars is that you can use the heater as much as you wish because the range is plenty for most local driving. With preheating and heater use the heated steering wheel becomes less important for comfort, although I think all EVs should have one (the folks in Hawai'i might disagree!)

 

[mtndrew1]

If the insideEVs delivery estimate is in the correct ballpark (they aggregate data points until the end of the quarter when they firm up the numbers based on Tesla’s quarterly report) that means Tesla delivered more Model 3s in January than all of 2017 combined.

Looking like a nice ramp, if a quarter or so behind schedule.

If this progression continues there may never be another month for the foreseeable future where the Bolt or Leaf outsells the Model 3. Or the Prius for that matter (all variations combined).

 

[hyperionmark]

So has anyone seen whether the 3 will be available with heated steering wheel? Believe it or not this is important to us. We are a few years away but I can't find anything on it.

Not so far. It might be added later, perhaps in a cold weather package as is done with the S.

I miss my heated steering wheel from the LEAF but adapted by using touch screen gloves.

One thing that is different for longer range cars is that you can use the heater as much as you wish because the range is plenty for most local driving. With preheating and heater use the heated steering wheel becomes less important for comfort, although I think all EVs should have one (the folks in Hawai'i might disagree!)

I'd agree that the heated steering wheel is an important feature for anyone that gets much winter weather. The heated steering wheel alone is probably worth at least $500 to me.

 

[lpickup]

The full $7,500 FTC for TSLA sales seems likely to be safe for at least the first three quarters of 2018.

For sure...I've been saying this for quite some time. The difference is that Tesla almost certainly will not have to take any evasive action to avoid going over 200K before April 1. In fact, even trying their hardest, they probably won't even hit it until late April. I don't think there is any real possibility that it won't be hit during 2Q though.

 

[jlv]

The lack of a heated steering wheel is one thing making me hold back placing the order for the 3.

 

[RegGuheert]

The lack of a heated steering wheel is one thing making me hold back placing the order for the 3.

It appears you didn't get the memo:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAo_QSwp7oY[/youtube]

With Autopilot and just about any fruit, you will not need to touch the wheel!

 

[GetOffYourGas]

If the insideEVs delivery estimate is in the correct ballpark (they aggregate data points until the end of the quarter when they firm up the numbers based on Tesla’s quarterly report) that means Tesla delivered more Model 3s in January than all of 2017 combined.

Looking like a nice ramp, if a quarter or so behind schedule.

If this progression continues there may never be another month for the foreseeable future where the Bolt or Leaf outsells the Model 3. Or the Prius for that matter (all variations combined).

This was my take on the numbers too. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Model 3 is the monthly sales leader in the US every month from now on, until it is eventually dethroned by the Model Y.

 

[edatoakrun]

..Looking like a nice ramp, if a quarter or so behind schedule...

This was my take on the numbers too...

TSLA reported it had 860 model 3's in transit, as of January 1.

That seems to indicate TSLA was only able to build and deliver about 1,000 additional model 3's in the entire month of January.

Clearly, production seems to have been way below the previously claimed 1k per week, for most (if not all) of the month.

The only additional firm production projection TSLA has given is 5 k per week by April fools day, so whatever "nice ramp" may mean, you really have two months left before the next (potential) disappointment...

 

[lpickup]

That seems to indicate TSLA was only able to build and deliver about 1,000 additional model 3's in the entire month of January.

Not necessarily. That would assume 0 lag in the pipeline. It's probably better to assume that "860 in transit" (even though that may be overstating it slightly, it's still a better assumption than 0). In fact, since many of the cars being delivered now are to owners in shall we say smaller markets across the US, I wouldn't actually be surprised to see that number even slightly higher than 860. For example, there has been a report yesterday of over 20 vehicles at the Charlotte, NC service center, not really a marquee market, being prepped for delivery. Atlanta has even more (although that is more of a marquee market).

Clearly, production seems to have been way below the previously claimed 1k per week, for most (if not all) of the month.

Just to remind you, Tesla never claimed 1K per week was actually achieved. They used weasel words to make it sound like that, but their official number was 793. Additionally I have heard that the factory was closed the first week of January for routine maintenance and deferred holiday for line workers, so technically speaking, January was a shorter month than others. Even so, you'd have to conservatively put it at about 600 vehicles average per week.

The only additional firm production projection TSLA has given is 5 k per week by April fools day, so whatever "nice ramp" may mean, you really have two months left before the next (potential) disappointment...

And let me again correct you that TSLA has estimated (not a firm projection!) 2500 by end of 1Q. The 5K/week is end of 2Q (June 30). And they've been saying that for about a month now. So no need to keep bringing up these numbers that you know are false.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

..Looking like a nice ramp, if a quarter or so behind schedule...

This was my take on the numbers too...

TSLA reported it had 860 model 3's in transit, as of January 1.

That seems to indicate TSLA was only able to build and deliver about 1,000 additional model 3's in the entire month of January.

Clearly, production seems to have been way below the previously claimed 1k per week, for most (if not all) of the month.

The only additional firm production projection TSLA has given is 5 k per week by April fools day, so whatever "nice ramp" may mean, you really have two months left before the next (potential) disappointment...

Ok, Ed. I feel like your biggest disappointment is that Tesla is still in business.

I never take Elon too seriously. Sure, he hopes to accomplish these things, but to me they are obviously all huge stretch goals. But the Model 3 is ramping up. And it was the best-selling plug-in car in January in the US. I suspect it will stay there for a long time. Tesla's production ramp will likely stay ahead of the demand for other plug-ins (which should rise in time too).

For years, the Model 3 (then, the "blue star") was due in 2016. All we got in 2016 was a few prototypes and a wait list. But now the cars are here. People love them. And Tesla is growing up from a low-rate specialty production manufacturer to true mass-production.

 

[hyperionmark]

Haha, Ed doesn't disappoint. I saw Tesla was down some so I got on here specifically to see what Ed would post.

 

[webeleafowners]

The lack of a heated steering wheel is one thing making me hold back placing the order for the 3.

We haven’t decided if it is a deal breaker yet but it’s important. A lot will depend on the test drives of each. Our 2016 will do us till 2021 so we’ll be able to get the long range car. Anything over 300 kilometres for us is pure gravy for the next car so a bigger Tesla battery wont cut it by itself. We love our Leaf. The Tesla will have big shoes to fill. We’ll keep an open mind.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

I agree the lack of heated steering wheel is really unfortunate, along with lack of a key fob.

As more cars hit the road I'm starting to have reservations about the model 3 again. I'm seeing far too many issues pop up on the forums. Lots of owners have already had to go back to the service center, sometimes within a day or two, to get things fixed, anything from battery to RFID reader to a mirror motor to a touch screen (some of them apparently are possessed and pressing the right side of the screen by themselves). Really just weird issues across the board indicative of Tesla's mad rush to push it out the door before nailing down quality issues.

All of this is bad, but in my case I am hours from a service center. I can promise that I am never taking a day out of my week to get a car serviced. Never. Do not have the time, and if I had it I would not make it for that. So if I'm having this thing shipped to me or driving across state to pick it up and one of these problems pops up, how does it get resolved?

 

[lpickup]

All of this is bad, but in my case I am hours from a service center. I can promise that I am never taking a day out of my week to get a car serviced. Never. Do not have the time, and if I had it I would not make it for that. So if I'm having this thing shipped to me or driving across state to pick it up and one of these problems pops up, how does it get resolved?

I would definitely get something (and would ask for it in writing) on Tesla's plan for providing you service if you decide to go ahead with a purchase. Fortunately I am literally within 10 minutes (5 minutes if I catch the lights right) of my service center, but realize most are certainly not that fortunate. If I was located that far away I would insist on them coming out to me, and if they weren't willing to do that it would definitely make me consider very carefully.

Having said that, I would also be wary of the selection bias of the internet with respect to hearing about problems. It's probably pretty tough to gauge whether the plentitude of issues you are hearing about (and I've heard about as well) are 0.1%, 5%, 25% or 50% of owners out there. And I can't think of a way to really validate that either, so yeah, it's a tough decision to make.

Best bet would be simply to wait as long as you can before pulling the trigger. This will give Tesla more time to improve QC on the product itself, and possibly allow you to solicit a wider variety of opinions from actual owners to help you determine how prevalent the issues really are.

 

[edatoakrun]

Your other comments above, being bullshit, do not merit reply, however:

...

The only additional firm production projection TSLA has given is 5 k per week by April fools day, so whatever "nice ramp" may mean, you really have two months left before the next (potential) disappointment...

And let me again correct you that TSLA has estimated (not a firm projection!) 2500 by end of 1Q. The 5K/week is end of 2Q (June 30). And they've been saying that for about a month now. So no need to keep bringing up these numbers that you know are false.

Yes, I made a mistake, citing TSLA's next-to-last announcement of its failures in producing model 3s , rather than the most recent one it made on January third.

BTW, today marks six months since Musk's first comically delusional projection of model 3 production

Elon Musk

Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec

10:12 PM - Jul 2, 2017

https://twitter.com/elonmusk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Felectrek.co%2F2017%2F07%2F03%2Ftesla-model-3-production-ramp-up%2F

Meanwhile, back on-topic, various significant model 3 design and build quality issues identified, prior to tear-down:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCIo8e12sBM

 

[lpickup]

Your other comments above, being bullshit, do not merit reply, however:

Assume you're talking about my comments re: assuming 0 cars in transit at end of Jan vs 860. Feel free to offer your own estimate if you wish. But if that estimate is 0 (as your original post would imply), then I'm afraid that smell of BS is not coming from my post.