Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[Rebel44]

Model 3 reservation deposits for each currency:

https://www.teslamotors.com/support/model-3-reservation-deposit

USD $ 1,000

CAD $ 1,000

MXN $ 20,000

EUR € 1.000

DKK kr. 10.000

GBP £ 1,000

NOK kr. 10.000

CHF CHF 1’000

SEK 10.000 kr

AUD $ 1,500

RMB ¥ 8,000

HKD $ 10,000

JPY ¥ 150,000

 

[lorenfb]

Model S/X owners get a priority in the Model 3 queue?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3959968-tesla-limiting-us-model-3-masses#alt2

 

[arnis]

I think I will wait for some 2 year old CPO cars - I can easily buy base Model 3, but after adding expected price of SC access, AWD, larger battery pack, Winter Package etc. I would likely be around $50K + tax, which is too much for me.

AWD will most likely add 3000-4000, Lifetime SC access (most likely there will be other options too) would cost up to 2000.
Also what about incentives? Those should be available for at least a year or two in US.

You can't get reasonable ICE with real AWD (not open diff BS) with all those "packages" for less than 45k+tax.
You might get something with either weak ICE or really pointless MPG vehicle.
Also why AWD? Have you ever tried RWD (ice, snow, gravel or smth)? There is not a lot of difference after all.

 

[Rebel44]

Model S/X owners get a priority in the Model 3 queue?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3959968-tesla-limiting-us-model-3-masses#alt2

Yes, I posted relevant quote on last page

Following groups will have a priority:
Tesla employees
Roadster, Model s and Model X owners

 

[garsh]

Following groups will have a priority:
Tesla employees
Roadster, Model s and Model X owners

And then it sounds like within each of those groups (or perhaps, after those groups), the priority will be west coast first, then flyover country, then east coast, before going international.

Sucks to be in the east.

 

[evnow]

Following groups will have a priority:
Tesla employees
Roadster, Model s and Model X owners

And then it sounds like within each of those groups (or perhaps, after those groups), the priority will be west coast first, then flyover country, then east coast, before going international.

Sucks to be in the east.

West and East coasts are likely least of the problem. West usually gets prioritized in the last month of the quarter, so shouldn't delay for east coasters by more than a month or so.

If 10k employees and 90k S/X owners bookings are made - we are looking at perhaps 100k deliveries before a non-tesla owners in the west can get one. This could take more than a year ...

 

[Rebel44]

Test rides will be available at unveiling

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/confirmed-test-ride-the-model-3.66077/

 

[pksd1]

If 10k employees and 90k S/X owners bookings are made - we are looking at perhaps 100k deliveries before a non-tesla owners in the west can get one. This could take more than a year ...

So basically almost 3 years from now for non-tesla owners...without delays, with delays could be 4 years.

 

[lpickup]

If 10k employees and 90k S/X owners bookings are made - we are looking at perhaps 100k deliveries before a non-tesla owners in the west can get one. This could take more than a year ...

So you are assuming that very close to 100% of Tesla employees will get the Model 3 (okay, possibly a reasonable assumption) and 135% of all existing US Tesla Roadster/MS/MX owners are going to get a Model 3. I only count about 66.5K US sales...where are you getting 90K? Is this an extrapolation of MS/MX sales out through late 2017 when M3 orders theoretically start? And do we know that future MS/MX owners immediately jump to the beginning of the queue ahead of non-owners that submitted their deposit BEFORE they became an owner? Or are they just prioritized ahead of any non-owners for the initial reservations?

Hey I hope as much as anyone that the Model 3 is an overwhelming success, but I think we need to be a LITTLE realistic here. Sure, I expect a certain number of current owners to buy the M3 on spec intending to re-sell it, but I think a lot of MS/MX owners are not really in the market for a car in the market segment of the M3. Even a 50% take up rate would be surprising to me. I personally believe that 25% is still probably an optimistic number. But like I said, it would be a happy day for Tesla (and the EV industry in general) if it's higher than that.

 

[dgpcolorado]

If 10k employees and 90k S/X owners bookings are made - we are looking at perhaps 100k deliveries before a non-tesla owners in the west can get one. This could take more than a year ...

So basically almost 3 years from now for non-tesla owners...without delays, with delays could be 4 years.

Hardly. The assumption that nearly all current Tesla owners will be also buying a 3 is absurd. Also the assumption that there will be big delays, as happened with the X, is unlikely. And Tesla can be expected to ramp up production of the 3 faster than the S/X. It is intended to be their mass market car.

I'll be putting in a reservation but I'd rather be farther back in the queue because I can't use the full (or even half) federal tax credit. Assuming that I want to go through with it at all.

Perhaps you will turn out to be right in your pessimistic forecast. I'm guessing otherwise.

 

[evnow]

So you are assuming that very close to 100% of Tesla employees will get the Model 3 (okay, possibly a reasonable assumption) and 135% of all existing US Tesla Roadster/MS/MX owners are going to get a Model 3.

First, I believe the Tesla employees are about 15k (or 13k ?). So I'm not assuming 100%.

Lot of things we don't know. I tweeted to Musk asking this question - no answer so far. This is something I posted in TMC.

- Will someone buying a S/X in 2018 and reserving a 3 be ahead of me placing my order on 31st ? In that case, we have to deal with 150k S/X owners wanting a 3 - not 65k.
- Will a S/X owner with base or moderate options be ahead of a non-owner with slightly higher options ? How about much higher set of options ?
- How many 3s can a S/X owner reserve ? Will all those be ahead in the queue ? Will it be one 3 reservation per Tesla ownership ? Depending on the answers you can't subtract doubled up owners. What if in a doubled up family the 2 Teslas are owned by different adults and they separately book 3 ?

 

[evnow]

Hardly. The assumption that nearly all current Tesla owners will be also buying a 3 is absurd. Also the assumption that there will be big delays, as happened with the X, is unlikely. And Tesla can be expected to ramp up production of the 3 faster than the S/X. It is intended to be their mass market car.

I'll be putting in a reservation but I'd rather be farther back in the queue because I can't use the full (or even half) federal tax credit. Assuming that I want to go through with it at all.

Perhaps you will turn out to be right in your pessimistic forecast. I'm guessing otherwise.

As you see above, the number will depend on a lot of things.

But I think it is almost certain that 3 rollout will be slower than what some highly optimistic folk in TMC think. A brand new car by a relatively new company - with thousands of critical components, with a timeline more aggressive than experienced OEMs means slow rollout and initial problems are unavoidable.

Probably not as much as X - but hitting big numbers in 2017 is highly unlikely.

BTW, why the pessimism about getting the car at all ?

 

[dgpcolorado]

...Probably not as much as X - but hitting big numbers in 2017 is highly unlikely.

Oh, I agree about 2017. But I think 2018 could have decent production numbers.

BTW, why the pessimism about getting the car at all ?

I might just decide to keep the S. Or I may no longer be able to drive due to failing eyesight, which is why I made the switch now rather than wait.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

I might just decide to keep the S. Or I may no longer be able to drive due to failing eyesight, which is why I made the switch now rather than wait.

With the rapid development of autonomous driving, I wonder if a new Model III would come with enough instrumentation to keep you mobile. I know that the technology is much farther along than the corresponding legislation. Maybe the Model III will come equipped with a true autopilot, which just needs approval to be turned on on public streets. At least that's how I envision the transition happening.

 

[evnow]

Maybe the Model III will come equipped with a true autopilot, which just needs approval to be turned on on public streets. At least that's how I envision the transition happening.

Yes in some scenarios and no in others. A truely autonomous car is quite far away ... the main question is how will an autonomous car handle unknown roads.

I listened to an interview with a regulator - and he was saying the regulators have already issues a ruling that can consider the computer as the "driver" - so as soon as an OEM can prove their car is safe, they'll get approval.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Maybe the Model III will come equipped with a true autopilot, which just needs approval to be turned on on public streets. At least that's how I envision the transition happening.

Yes in some scenarios and no in others. A truely autonomous car is quite far away ... the main question is how will an autonomous car handle unknown roads.

I listened to an interview with a regulator - and he was saying the regulators have already issues a ruling that can consider the computer as the "driver" - so as soon as an OEM can prove their car is safe, they'll get approval.

So do you have to take your car to the DMV to get its driver's license? :lol:

Yeah, it's a bit optimistic to think that this generation of technology is mature enough for fully autonomous cars. But I still think the technology will be on the roads before the regulators are ready to allow it to be turned on.

And more back on topic, from hints Tesla has dropped about the Model III, I expect it to have incremental improvements from today's Model S. Of course, once they are both available, the Model S will probably remain Tesla's flagship model, with all the bells and whistles - some of which won't be available on its cheaper little sister.

 

[Rebel44]

I hope, that Model 3 will have low drag coefficient (20-22 Cd), which would help range at highway speeds.

 

[Rebel44]

allegedly leaked info:

http://electrek.co/2016/03/30/tesla-model-3-specs/

...source who has provided reliable information in the past has given us some real news on the Model 3.

The biggest news: According to a source who has seen the design that will be shown off tomorrow, it looks like a smaller hybrid of the Model X and S. It is a bit taller sedan with a unique front that looks more like a Model X than a Model S. The car is shorter and narrower than either the model X or S but is described as “sexy and sporty”. The person who saw it said that they didn’t like the look of the X initially and only came around to liking it when the Falcon Wing doors were exhibited. This person instantly fell in love with the design of the Model 3, however, saying “It seems so right”.

One of the standout specs Tesla will tout is that it will be able to travel from 0-60 in under 4 seconds. We weren’t told if this is for the base model or a more premium edition with bigger battery and AWD.

Speaking of higher end, the price tag on the high end version of the Model 3 grows significantly to almost base Model S territory with estimates in the $50-$60K range. What do you get for that money? Besides autonomous driving on the level of the Model S and X, Tesla will also offer the aforementioned AWD option. In addition, a battery pack that were estimating in the ~80kWh range will take the Model 3 to over 300 miles in range.

 

[pksd1]

allegedly leaked info:

http://electrek.co/2016/03/30/tesla-model-3-specs/

"front that looks more like a Model X than a Model S."

I hope not. Model X front end is not that apealing. I hope it looks more like model S than X

"Speaking of higher end, the price tag on the high end version of the Model 3 grows significantly to almost base Model S territory with estimates in the $50-$60K range"

I think $35 model will not be available for quiet some time. Expect to pay $45k+ if you want your car the first year.

 

[TomT]

Total drag is actually much more important than just Cd...

I hope, that Model 3 will have low drag coefficient (20-22 Cd), which would help range at highway speeds.