Official Tesla Model S thread

[qwk]

Yeah, Nissan is losing money on every leaf sold right now. Once they reach mass production, that will cut costs, but I doubt that they will pass a $10k savings onto you just out of the goodness of their heart. The battery savings will just be eaten up in their profit. Simple economics.

We are talking about post tax credit prices. Remember Leaf started at $25k - not far from my prediction of just above $20k. The savings will come from battery cost reduction as well as production in US.

BTW, the way you write, people would think you are on the Nissan board instead of the reality of just speculation.

A new leaf starts @~$35k today. Once you take out the $7.5 credit(which is not a given), that leaves you with $27.5k. You don't live in California, so factoring other states EV rebates that may or may not last isn't really fair. How in the world is Nissan going to take 1/3 of the price off and still have room for their AND the dealer profit? Sometimes reality is harsh.

BTW, I would like prices to come down too, but wishing is one thing and reality is another. There were supposed to be quite a few different EV's available today if you listened to all the buzz a few years ago and the only EV's available nationwide today are the leaf and model S. Not everyone who craves EV's lives in California.

 

[TonyWilliams]

They are using common Panasonic 16650 cells

Those are 18650, like a double A battery on steroids. The physical size is 18mm * 65mm, hence the name.

 

[mitch672]

They are using common Panasonic 16650 cells

Those are 18650, like a double A battery on steroids. The physical size is 18mm * 65mm, hence the name.

Hey, I was close, I got 4 out of 5 digits correct from memory

 

[DaveEV]

How in the world is Nissan going to take 1/3 of the price off and still have room for their AND the dealer profit? Sometimes reality is harsh.

Nissan is already giving $5500 dealer rebates to move LEAFs today and the base model LEAF S for 2013 is rumored to come in around $30k. So Nissan is already 1/2 of the way there to your target of $27k without incentives.

Not hard to imagine that another 2-3 years of optimizing and ramping up production Nissan could get another $3-4k off the MSRP with batteries getting cheaper by about 8% every year.

By the time Tesla starts producing their "mass market" car in 3-5 years (BMW 3-series size/cost vehicle) I think Nissan will be in a good position to compete with them if they also aim for that market with an Infiniti. They will have no choice but to try assuming that Tesla remains successful.

 

[jkirkebo]

21" tires are expensive as hell.

No clue why they couldn't have picked 20 or 22"

Hmm, only if you think ~$700 for a set of 4 tires (the OEM Continental ExtremeContact DWs) are expensive as hell.

http://www.discountedwheelwarehouse.com/Discount_Tires.cfm?pn=15482520000&pID=1972

 

[jkirkebo]

$12k take home = $200k per year for a family of 4. That is within top 3% in the US. They can potentially afford a $1,300 payment on a 70k loan for a 85kWh S.

That bad, eh ?

In Norway the average yearly salary before tax is $80k per person, so an average familiy with two working adults would be around $160k. $200k is therefore maybe top 20% or even more.

Add the fact that the 60kW Model S costs the same here as a VW Passat 2.0TDI and you can see the potential for huge sales, even in a country of only 5-6 million people. My guess is that yearly sales will be somewhere between 2500 and 5000 cars, maybe even more.

And my payment for the Performance S with nearly all options and 25% down will be around $1150 per month.

 

[tbleakne]

Interesting that on the new range estimator on the Tesla website that the 19" wheels extend range about 6-7% over the 21" wheels...

http://www.teslamotors.com/goelectric#range" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ya, I saw that. I suspect that the 21 tires are stickier.

The 21 tires are easier to wear out (because it's meant for performance); and they are more expensive to replace.

The 21" tires also have a lower-aspect ratio, so they will fit in the same wheel wells. I have never understood the modern popularity of low-aspect ratio tires. It would seem they would be stiffer. Does this help the handling in sharp turns, or increase performance in some other way ?

 

[evnow]

That bad, eh ?

In Norway the average yearly salary before tax is $80k per person, so an average family with two working adults would be around $160k. $200k is therefore maybe top 20% or even more.

Yes, that bad. Median *family* income is about $60k. Mind you, we have a lot of Billionaires who bring up the average

Ofcourse even 3% means 3 Million households.

Ofcourse, the car prices are much better here - esp. the ICE, since we don't have a large tax on them. Still, an average family doesn't buy a new car. They buy used.

 

[Randy]

Talking income differences between countries means nothing without discussing the price of goods, services, health care and taxes.

And I'm not advocating that we do that in this thread...Just sayin'....

 

[qwk]

How in the world is Nissan going to take 1/3 of the price off and still have room for their AND the dealer profit? Sometimes reality is harsh.

Nissan is already giving $5500 dealer rebates to move LEAFs today and the base model LEAF S for 2013 is rumored to come in around $30k. So Nissan is already 1/2 of the way there to your target of $27k without incentives.

Not hard to imagine that another 2-3 years of optimizing and ramping up production Nissan could get another $3-4k off the MSRP with batteries getting cheaper by about 8% every year.

I hope you are right, but I won't be holding my breath. Tesla is already raising prices, and has shown that they want to get rid of the base pack car. Neither choice is going to help EV adoption.

 

[Herm]

20 years from now that 2012 S will look just as good, no one expends that kind of money on a supercar and does not maintain it. Probably on the second battery pack by then..

 

[evnow]

20 years from now that 2012 S will look just as good, no one expends that kind of money on a supercar and does not maintain it. Probably on the second battery pack by then..

It will look nice in 20 years - but remember the most expensive new technology depreciates the fastest.

 

[Zythryn]

...Tesla is already raising prices, and has shown that they want to get rid of the base pack car. Neither choice is going to help EV adoption.

They announced the price three years ago, and held to it. Next fall/late summer will have a price increase. The increase is 3%-5% which is not all that unusual. And "they want to get rid of the base pack car"?? Where did that come from??

If you ask me, Tesla is the best thing that ever happened to EV adoption. Not only is it a great EV, but it is actually bringing more people into the EV market that would never have considered an EV before.

One of the things so impressive about the EV market is you have a lot of different tactics being taken by different auto makers. This broadens the EV market and should result in better adoption rates than if all makers built the same thing.

 

[qwk]

...Tesla is already raising prices, and has shown that they want to get rid of the base pack car. Neither choice is going to help EV adoption.

They announced the price three years ago, and held to it. Next fall/late summer will have a price increase. The increase is 3%-5% which is not all that unusual. And "they want to get rid of the base pack car"?? Where did that come from??

If you ask me, Tesla is the best thing that ever happened to EV adoption. Not only is it a great EV, but it is actually bringing more people into the EV market that would never have considered an EV before.

One of the things so impressive about the EV market is you have a lot of different tactics being taken by different auto makers. This broadens the EV market and should result in better adoption rates than if all makers built the same thing.

I'm not disagreeing with the price increase, as demand is far outpacing supply, but this only proves the point I was trying to make earlier of battery prices prices coming down but the difference being swallowed up in profit and not passed up to the consumer to aid in faster adoption.

It's widely known that Tesla offered the base pack to satisfy the sub $50k price point for the DOE loan. The fact that the 40kwh pack is not offered in Europe, further solidifies this.

I also agree that Tesla is the best thing that happened to EV's, but mass adoption is further than it would be if they had done a few things differently.

 

[waidy]

The 21" tires also have a lower-aspect ratio, so they will fit in the same wheel wells. I have never understood the modern popularity of low-aspect ratio tires. It would seem they would be stiffer. Does this help the handling in sharp turns, or increase performance in some other way ?

I am no expert in handling. In talking of turns, Model S has a left and right lights works with your steering wheel. If you turn right (even slightly right), the right light comes on. If you turn left the left light turn on. The lights turn off when the steering wheel is straight. In additions, there is a set of light at the back of Model S for regen. If you are doing regen, that set of lights come on. I think it is to tell the cars behind you that you are slowing down. This is a different set of lights for break.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

went for another test drive today to make the final configuration decisions. It was really nice to get some relaxed time behind the wheel. got to test out the stereo upgrade, Queen's Bohemian Rapsody and Little Feats Spanish Moon sounded awesome. sounded better with Dolby turned off. the car is so responsive, the one peddle driving is an improvement, lots of leg room, even put the car seat in the back and me being 6'3" with the seat comfortably back there was still plenty of leg room for the kids behind me. everything feels nice and tight yet smooth and relaxed all at the same time, a very well thought out vehicle!! Was surprised to find that the settings for the air shocks get over ridden when you are under way and it just goes back to variable, where it just auto adjusts depending on conditions. probably will skip the 3rd row of seats and the 21" rims, the rims are just not practical for this climate. Honestly, I think the base model of this car with air shocks is a steal!

 

[Zythryn]

... In talking of turns, Model S has a left and right lights works with your steering wheel. If you turn right (even slightly right), the right light comes on. If you turn left the left light turn on. The lights turn off when the steering wheel is straight.

This is completely inaccurate. Turn signal is a standard stalk on the steering wheel. I is actually from the Mercedes parts bin.

Did you read about this in regards to a concept vehicle, or perhaps you are thinking of something other car?

 

[waidy]

... In talking of turns, Model S has a left and right lights works with your steering wheel. If you turn right (even slightly right), the right light comes on. If you turn left the left light turn on. The lights turn off when the steering wheel is straight.

This is completely inaccurate. Turn signal is a standard stalk on the steering wheel. I is actually from the Mercedes parts bin.

Did you read about this in regards to a concept vehicle, or perhaps you are thinking of something other car?

I am embarrassed. I didn't read the manuals. I noticed it when I was driving my Model S.

 

[evnow]

I am embarrassed. I didn't read the manuals. I noticed it when I was driving my Model S.

Interesting ... this is the first time I've read about this feature.

 

[Zythryn]

...
I am embarrassed. I didn't read the manuals. I noticed it when I was driving my Model S.

Hehe, no harm done. It is kind of tucked away down there
Congrats on your S!