Official Tesla Model S thread

[mitch672]

I got my notice as well. taking the kids car seats over and doing another test drive on Thursday before pulling the trigger. do you know what combination gets the fastest delivery vs what delays the most, assuming an 85 kW (I know the 40 and 60 are coming later)?

when I called today, the Bellevue store rep said they were up to 90 cars a day now... wow!

Yes, their goal is 400/week, 1,600/month, nearly 20,000/year. 90/day sounds like they have exceeded the goal.

From what I gather on the TMC forum, anything not in production currently has the potential to delay your order.. The new red paint, the 40/60KW pack size, the grey leather interior (I am getting), etc.

 

[JPVLeaf]

.

 

[cwerdna]

On the note of the delays, I came across this today on the Electric Vehicle LinkedIn group.
http://www.torquenews.com/1075/tesla-announces-delayed-production-dates-some-model-s-variations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

Maybe i'm drinking the cool aid, but their model of starting with the Roadster in a small niche market giving way to a larger market in the S and ultimately all as a means to reach the economy of scale necessary to finance a more affordable mass market model is brilliant, and so far its working much better than the bottom up attempts.

Tesla isn't exactly going as intended. Their idea was to make enough money out of Roadster to fund development of cheaper cars. They didn't make any money out of Roadster - and but for Merc, they would have folded. EPA loan helped in no small measure.

No, they can't ignore Model S after a couple of years, they need to figure out how to generate cash flows out of it to invest in Gen III.

Just like Roadster gave the market the confidence that they can make Model S, successful Model S & X run is needed for Gen III. Even then, it is not clear whether Gen III would ever compete with Leaf or just with i3.

 

[mitch672]

it is not clear whether Gen III would ever compete with Leaf or just with i3.

Won't be much of a competition, when they get to "BlueStar" (Gen III), Teslas superior battery management and thermally manged pack will far exceed all of the lower end EVs on the market.
Tesla is really the only manufacturer that doesn't have an axe (Read: ICE) to grind.
They are not in competition with themselves, as ALL other manufacturers are, including Nissan.

Also they are not trying to compete with other EVs, that's not what they do, or their mission.
They are displacing full ICE vehicles with a superior vehicle/driving experience, no compromises.

 

[evnow]

it is not clear whether Gen III would ever compete with Leaf or just with i3.

Won't be much of a competition, when they get to "BlueStar" (Gen III), Teslas superior battery management and thermally manged pack will far exceed all of the lower end EVs on the market.

LOL. I wasn't looking for a spiel. Simply put, what will the Gen III cost ?

Ofcourse, the bigger question is how long will Tesla remain independent ?

 

[mitch672]

it is not clear whether Gen III would ever compete with Leaf or just with i3.

Won't be much of a competition, when they get to "BlueStar" (Gen III), Teslas superior battery management and thermally manged pack will far exceed all of the lower end EVs on the market.

LOL. I wasn't looking for a spiel. Simply put, what will the Gen III cost ?

Ofcourse, the bigger question is how long will Tesla remain independent ?

All unknowns of course. The target price is rumored to be in the $35-40K range (some even say sub $30K, who knows), with a rumored 200 mile range. Time will tell the story, no use speculating - they must be successful with the Model S and the Model X to get their. Elon won't sell, he won't need to if they generate %25 gross margins on the Model S. within a few short years, TSLA will likely be larger than GM, is the most likely outcome. I'm banking on it

Stop thinking of the Model S as an EV, it's simply the BEST car, that also happens to be an EV
That's Teslas stated goal.

 

[gsleaf]

Did anyone see this post yet? They fly a tech out if your Tesla breaks.

http://jalopnik.com/5965858/this-is-what-happens-when-your-tesla-model-s-stops-working

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

It's remarkable that they have done such a good job that they have critics saying this very thing... goal apparently accomplished!

...
Stop thinking of the Model S as an EV, it's simply the BEST car, that also happens to be an EV
That's Teslas stated goal.

 

[evnow]

Stop thinking of the Model S as an EV, it's simply the BEST car, that also happens to be an EV
That's Teslas stated goal.

They need an updated interior to even come to parity with other luxury cars. In any case, "BEST" will remain subjective.

$35 to $40k would make Gen III compete with i3/LE, rather than Leaf. By the time Gen III comes out, I expect Leaf to be selling for a little over $20k (post tax credit).

 

[jkirkebo]

Never before in my wildest dreams would I even consider spending ~80k for a car. I have lusted for a high end Mercedes, or a 7 series Beemer, but just would not consider paying that kind of money.

Now I want a luxury 250 mile EV, and I'm going to get it - if I live long enough.

Same here. The performance Model S will be ~2.3 times as expensive as the Leaf, which previously was the most expensive car I've ever bought. It is in no way above my pay grade though, I just never had any interest in spending that much money on an ICE car.

 

[evnow]

I should note that the required "pay grade" is somewhat subjective. To me, 85kwh S is a top 1% car (500k+ per year). The base model is probably top 2% (250k+ per year). But I'm probably more conservative than most folks here.

There are people on the Tesla Forum saying even 60k a year is good enough (that would be like top 40% !). That is something I'd definitely consider above pay grade.

 

[jkirkebo]

I should note that the required "pay grade" is somewhat subjective. To me, 85kwh S is a top 1% car (500k+ per year). The base model is probably top 2% (250k+ per year). But I'm probably more conservative than most folks here.

Probably. If you only could buy a car 1/5th the value of your salary, a person making $100k could never buy a new car at all. That's kind of insane

I think using 15-20% of net salary each month on a car is very reasonable. That is for all costs, ie. loan payments, service/repairs, insurance, tires and fuel. And one should put at least 20-25% down to avoid being upside-down.

 

[evnow]

Probably. If you only could buy a car 1/5th the value of your salary, a person making $100k could never buy a new car at all. That's kind of insane

A large number of them don't ! (BTW, I'm talking about family income).

Keep in mind, in the US, you can get a large # of new car models for about $20k. For eg. the largest selling car, Camry, starts at $22k.

I think using 15-20% of net salary each month on a car is very reasonable. That is for all costs, ie. loan payments, service/repairs, insurance, tires and fuel. And one should put at least 20-25% down to avoid being upside-down.

Yes, 15% of take home pay going for debt servicing is what most personal finance advisers suggest.

A $100k family will have about $6k in take home after all taxes and 401k. So, about 1,500 is what they should spend on loan payments, including home (atleast a $1000), some credit card and then the car payment. You can see why they won't be able to spend more than $250 to $300 on a car esp. given they may have 2 cars !

 

[jkirkebo]

Yes, 15% of take home pay going for debt servicing is what most personal finance advisers suggest.

A $100k family will have about $6k in take home after all taxes and 401k. So, about 1,500 is what they should spend on loan payments, including home (atleast a $1000), some credit card and then the car payment. You can see why they won't be able to spend more than $250 to $300 on a car esp. given they may have 2 cars !

Hmm, that's low. I'd say 30% is ok for house + car loan payments. Well, not for a $100k family maybe, but for a $200k. I was talking per adult with income as most have their own car.

$12k in take home:

$3500 loan
$2000 bills (including insurance)
$2000 food
$2000 other stuff (like clothes, visits to the doctor, new gadgets, gasoline etc.)

That leaves $2500 per month disposable (savings, buffer, vacation etc). I'd advice avoiding credit cards as long-time credit.

Of course there are a thousand variables, like number of kids. No kids => much higher loan payments possible than a family with 5 kids who must spend more on food & clothes.

 

[qwk]

By the time Gen III comes out, I expect Leaf to be selling for a little over $20k (post tax credit).

:lol: this is a pipe dream!

What makes you think that the leaf is going to cost less in the future? Nissan already raised the price once on the leaf. Factoring in inflation, there is no way that cars are going to get any cheaper going forward.

 

[qwk]

Yes, 15% of take home pay going for debt servicing is what most personal finance advisers suggest.

A $100k family will have about $6k in take home after all taxes and 401k. So, about 1,500 is what they should spend on loan payments, including home (atleast a $1000), some credit card and then the car payment. You can see why they won't be able to spend more than $250 to $300 on a car esp. given they may have 2 cars !

Wow, generalize much?

There are too many variables to group people into what they can or cannot afford. These include savings, lifestyle, living location, priorities and so on. Everyone is different.

 

[mitch672]

Some might just write a check, maybe they've worked a very long time, and have actual savings.
Maybe they have a large amount saved in their 401K, and want to spend it. Not everyone lives paycheck to paycheck.

 

[WetEV]

What makes you think that the leaf is going to cost less in the future? Nissan already raised the price once on the leaf. Factoring in inflation, there is no way that cars are going to get any cheaper going forward.

Battery prices have been falling at over 10% a year for the past 20 years. A large fraction of the cost of the Leaf is the cost of the battery pack. If Nissan doesn't cut the price in the future, they will likely be undercut by Tesla, or someone else.

Right now, Nissan might not need to, as the Leaf is a large fraction of the pure EV market. But this will likely change.

 

[evnow]

Hmm, that's low. I'd say 30% is ok for house + car loan payments. Well, not for a $100k family maybe, but for a $200k. I was talking per adult with income as most have their own car.

$12k in take home:

$12k take home = $200k per year for a family of 4. That is within top 3% in the US. They can potentially afford a $1,300 payment on a 70k loan for a 85kWh S.

It is true that higher income households can spend more because they have higher % of disposable income.