TSLA corporate outlook

[jlv]

What's wrong with that?

Some consider it bad grammar. E.g., https://grammarist.com/usage/learnings/

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

$35K Tesla now available. Guess that hoax is over.

Possibly.

Let's see how this pans out in coming weeks/months.

If this is as they are claiming, it's about time, and I can admit I was wrong about the car. Will be interesting to see how this impacts the stock when it's reopened for trading. Anybody who takes delivery before Q2, in certain states (like mine) will get it for sub $30k all-in.

Clearly I need not admit anything of the sort so far.

Yet again Tesla lied. They said 2-4 weeks out for SR cars and not a single one has yet been delivered 5-6 weeks later. More BS, more excuses.

Q1 sales in NA are going to be very interesting. I think demand has detonated for Tesla's products in north america. They'll play off things well in Europe based on a backlog as if it's any guidance to ongoing demand.

 

[sparky]

Not great numbers for Q1 production and deliveries and probably over $1.5B hit to their revenue vs Q4.
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

Yes, it's 110% growth over Q1-2018 but this is going to hurt the stock for several weeks IMO. S&X are especially impacted by about 10k fewer cars produced this quarter than last year at this time. I was expecting about 70k deliveries.

 

[WetEV]

Not great numbers for Q1 production and deliveries and probably over $1.5B hit to their revenue vs Q4.
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

Yes, it's 110% growth over Q1-2018 but this is going to hurt the stock for several weeks IMO. S&X are especially impacted by about 10k fewer cars produced this quarter than last year at this time. I was expecting about 70k deliveries.

Production exceeded deliveries by 22%. Almost equal to cars in transit to remote markets.

Deliveries were 31% below last quarter.

So looks not so horrid, production only down 9%.

 

[lorenfb]

Tesla report 4/3/19:

In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter.
This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

So based on new & previous available data:

1. Approximately 25K M3s went to China/Europe in Q1, most likely half from 2018 production.
2. That leaves about 26K (51K-25K) M3 deliveries for the U.S. in Q1.
3. From InsideEvs, about 12K M3 for Jan/Feb.
4. Given the March “push”, only 14K deliveries in U.S. for March.
5. Q1 M3 production was 63K, which results in an excess M3 inventory ~ 12K (63K-51K).

Conclusions:

1. The M3 demand has significantly weakened, i.e. #5 above (production > demand).
2. Based on U.S. Q1 results, the M3 annualized U.S. volume is only about 100K.
3. The MS/MX 2019 run-rate is about half 2018 (~ 50K).
4. Total projected 2019 sales volume ~ 250K, i.e. less than the 300K from Elon's latest guidance,
without very significant China/European demand increase.

Bottom Line: M3 demand has reached a plateau per expectations.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Seems I was right per my post yesterday.

Demand story is over, stock is tanking in pre-market.

When are Tesla fans going to figure out the stock's price is absolute garbage? TSLA is not the new AMZN. This company has some major headwinds.

 

[cwerdna]

Well, you wrote this on Jan 26, 2018...

If you doubt that Tesla will build 500,000 cars per year within 6-12 months, you are ignoring reality.

They reported earnings around Jan 30, 2019. See https://insideevs.com/tesla-releases-q4-results-profit/.

They claimed:

Every part of the Model 3 production process has demonstrated over a 24-hour period the ability to produce at an extrapolated rate of 7,000 vehicles per week. By the end of this year, we expect to be able to produce Model 3 at this rate on a sustained basis.

So, if they are able to sustain 7K/week, that's 364K vehicles/year.

From http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

So, that's about 5930/week. This is well short of the rate required to build 500,000 vehicles/year of ~9615/week.

 

[Leaf15]

Model 3 is just another niche EV car. This is what Tesla is good for since they started making EV cars just for a few folks.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

If it's a demand problem they could try lifting a finger there. Stop thinking you're smarter than everyone else and run some ads, open more stores instead of closing them and incentivize the sales force.

Of course demand generation doesn't help without the corresponding supply generation. Keep fixing the production and delivery issues.

Oh and change the password on the EM twitter account and have those all come through corporate communications. There's a reason big companies review stuff and think things through before opening their yaps.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/03/cars/tesla-sales-first-quarter-2019-results/index.html

It was the first quarter-to-quarter drop in sales at Tesla (TSLA) in nearly two years and the single largest drop ever.

Stock got smashed, but it's recovered up another $9 or so since, including after market. Not surprised. It will keep going up because its supporters don't care about fundamentals. People who are long tsla at this valuation are part of a mass delusion. Musk is a compulsive liar. A lot of people realize this, but it's surprising how many don't despite voluminous evidence in support of it.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/tesla-shares-gain-after-multi-million-dollar-emissions-deal-with-fiat-chrysler-14919319

"FCA is committed to reducing the emissions of all our products," the company said in a statement Monday "The purchase pool provides flexibility to deliver products our customers are willing to buy while managing compliance with the lowest cost approach."

That's hilarious.

 

[palmermd]

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/tesla-shares-gain-after-multi-million-dollar-emissions-deal-with-fiat-chrysler-14919319

"FCA is committed to reducing the emissions of all our products," the company said in a statement Monday "The purchase pool provides flexibility to deliver products our customers are willing to buy while managing compliance with the lowest cost approach."

That's hilarious.

Demons and Hellcats for everyone in Europe now that they can offset it with Model 3.

 

[GRA]

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/tesla-shares-gain-after-multi-million-dollar-emissions-deal-with-fiat-chrysler-14919319

"FCA is committed to reducing the emissions of all our products," the company said in a statement Monday "The purchase pool provides flexibility to deliver products our customers are willing to buy while managing compliance with the lowest cost approach."

That's hilarious.

Demons and Hellcats for everyone in Europe now that they can offset it with Model 3.

More like Jeeps and Maseratis (along with Fiats, Alfas and Lancias).

Meanwhile, back in the U.S., via ABG:

Judge to Elon Musk and SEC: 'Put your reasonable pants on'
SEC stops short of asking for his removal as CEO

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/04/04/judge-to-elon-musk-sec-put-your-reasonable-pants-on/

Elon Musk's job as Tesla chief executive appeared safe on Thursday as a federal judge in Manhattan urged the billionaire to settle contempt allegations by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over his use of Twitter.

At a hearing in Manhattan federal court, U.S. District Judge Alison Nathan gave both sides two weeks to work out their differences, and said she could rule on whether Musk violated his recent fraud settlement with the regulator if they failed.

"Take a deep breath, put your reasonableness pants on, and work this out," the judge said.

The hearing appeared to lift an overhang over Tesla, as the SEC stopped well short of recommending Musk's removal as chief executive or even from the electric car company's board.

Instead, the regulator suggested that greater oversight of Musk's communications, including the threat of new fines if he backslides, was punishment enough, at least for now.

"What this is to the SEC is strike two, and if there is another transgression they might seek a director and officer bar," said Peter Henning, a law professor at Wayne State University in Detroit and a former SEC lawyer. "They are just trying to send a message: be more careful. . . ."

 

[Nubo]

Stock got smashed, but it's recovered up another $9 or so since, including after market. Not surprised. It will keep going up because its supporters don't care about fundamentals. People who are long tsla at this valuation are part of a mass delusion. Musk is a compulsive liar. A lot of people realize this, but it's surprising how many don't despite voluminous evidence in support of it.

Not sure about currently, but for quite some time TSLA was the most heavily shorted stock. Not sure which side is suffering from delusion but so far the shorts were the only ones to get creamed, in 2013 and 2017. Maybe this time will be different.

 

[webb14leafs]

Well, you wrote this on Jan 26, 2018...

If you doubt that Tesla will build 500,000 cars per year within 6-12 months, you are ignoring reality.

They reported earnings around Jan 30, 2019. See https://insideevs.com/tesla-releases-q4-results-profit/.

They claimed:

Every part of the Model 3 production process has demonstrated over a 24-hour period the ability to produce at an extrapolated rate of 7,000 vehicles per week. By the end of this year, we expect to be able to produce Model 3 at this rate on a sustained basis.

So, if they are able to sustain 7K/week, that's 364K vehicles/year.

From http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

So, that's about 5930/week. This is well short of the rate required to build 500,000 vehicles/year of ~9615/week.

Just come back to the boards after a long break and see that someone served me up a big plate of crow. Serves me right to try and predict the future.

I still subscribe to the Tesla growth story and tend to see positives where others see negatives, but the numbers don't lie. The big positive is that model 3 sales are still dominating many segment sales rankings. And ~250,000/yr or more sales in a segment that has dwindling popularity in the worlds largest market isn't something to sneeze at.

Still, the headwinds are adding up:

Loss of tax incentives - If nothing else, this gives people pause, or makes them shop for other brands that still have the full tax credit.

Stagnant design - The model S design is getting a little long in the tooth. Still a beautiful car, but it needs a refresh to restore some momentum. And let's admit it, the model Y is fugly. This car could decide they're fate, and the design is a huge fail.

Consumer ignorance - It amazes me that smart people I know have bought a loaded Honda Civic or Mazda 3 for $26K, and say they would rather have waited to buy the model 3, but the $35K price tag is more than they can afford. People only think about the sticker price, and don't realize the cost savings associated with fuel, maintenance and longevity. Tesla needs to do a better job of educating the public about this, and just might need to break down and produce some, gulp, commercials.

The positives are still numerous though:

Total Market Domination - Let's not forget that Tesla is absolutely dominating a nascent market that ALL analysts believe will be mainstream by 2030 at the latest. The fact that they're nearly profitable at this point in their evolution should be seen as a major positive. This is basically the bull position, and it's perfectly valid. To date, Tesla has STILL has no competition. Sure, there are a number of automakers that are releasing cars that get a lot of buzz, but end up only producing 10,000-20,000 units per year. This is not competition.

Model Y - Aside from the fact that it's hideous, the Model Y is superior to the Model 3 in terms of cost and marketability. $39K for a "luxury" small SUV is much more palatable in the US market than a $35K compact sedan. The Volvo XC40 starts at $36K for goodness sake.

Global Sales - Despite articles poopooing European demand, early numbers look solid. 80,000 annual sales looks like a no-brainer. That dominates the EV market and is very competitive in the overall market. Again, this is just the early adopters. The fast follower market is always much bigger.

Pick-up - I have no doubt that this truck will be ugly as heck. I also have no doubt that fleet sales will be through the roof. Do you have any idea how much construction companies spend on fuel and maintenance for their F-150s? Do you have any idea how much of an incentive (carbon credits) there is for corporations to buy EVs for their fleet vehicles. This is the sleeping giant that noone seems to be talking much about.

SEMI - Just because!!!

Solar and Energy Storage - Remember this??? Actually, neither do I. I wonder if Elon does. Seriously though, this is huge in countries with high electricity rates, but not so much in the US. Still, the utility scale Energy Storage market is starting to boom, and Tesla will be a major player.

 

[jlv]

Solar and Energy Storage - Remember this??? Actually, neither do I. I wonder if Elon does.

While I was in Buffalo over last weekend(*), there was a newspaper article about him making a surprise visit to the Tesla solar factory there. The article mentioned that Tesla has not yet met the employment requirement for the tax incentives they got: https://buffalonews.com/2019/04/05/there-was-an-elon-musk-sighting-in-buffalo-today/
Similar coverage: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-gigafactory-2-tesla-energy-ramp/


(*) 2nd long trip in our X; we usually take the S, but my wife wanted to show off her car.

 

[cwerdna]

Consumer ignorance - It amazes me that smart people I know have bought a loaded Honda Civic or Mazda 3 for $26K, and say they would rather have waited to buy the model 3, but the $35K price tag is more than they can afford. People only think about the sticker price, and don't realize the cost savings associated with fuel, maintenance and longevity. Tesla needs to do a better job of educating the public about this, and just might need to break down and produce some, gulp, commercials.

Except the $35K Model 3 still isn't shipping. We've seen no evidence from https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/sr-not-plus-waiting-room.146897/ that it is. So, that leaves the SR+ ($37.5K to start). I don't buy black cars and about the only acceptable color to me that I'd be willing to pay is a steep $2K extra for white, making it $39.5K.

Sure, fueling costs will be less on a 3 (and way less in cheap electricity states), but I doubt the 3 will be more reliable and long lived than a Mazda 3 judging by past history and problems we've already seen on the 3's. I have a collection of over a dozen failed drive units on 3's reported on TMC (and this is with me going on hiatus from TMC for months at a time) and numerous folks have had cracked glass roofs, including some folks at my work. Tesla reliability record is spotty and I'm amazed they even achieved average in the first model year of the 3. Below average sounds more like it, which is the latest assessment.

Not every has the ability to charge at work or at home.

There are numerous reasons why in Jan 2019, I ruled out the 3 and bought a heavily discounted ’19 Bolt when GM tax credit was still $7500. A $44K+ 3 MR in white for $46K was paying way too much for a car with things I didn’t want, missing things I wanted and were flat out unavailable and that I had other issues with.

The introduction of the “$35K” 3 which still hasn’t shipped hasn’t addressed any of my issues w/the 3 except price, partly.

(And yes, I’m well aware of the strengths the 3 has over the Bolt (e.g. excellent Supercharger network and DC FCing speeds, OTA updates, etc.))

 

[webb14leafs]

Consumer ignorance - It amazes me that smart people I know have bought a loaded Honda Civic or Mazda 3 for $26K, and say they would rather have waited to buy the model 3, but the $35K price tag is more than they can afford. People only think about the sticker price, and don't realize the cost savings associated with fuel, maintenance and longevity. Tesla needs to do a better job of educating the public about this, and just might need to break down and produce some, gulp, commercials.

Except the $35K Model 3 still isn't shipping. We've seen no evidence from https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/sr-not-plus-waiting-room.146897/ that it is. So, that leaves the SR+ ($37.5K to start). I don't buy black cars and about the only acceptable color to me that I'd be willing to pay is a steep $2K extra for white, making it $39.5K.

Sure, fueling costs will be less on a 3 (and way less in cheap electricity states), but I doubt the 3 will be more reliable and long lived than a Mazda 3 judging by past history and problems we've already seen on the 3's. I have a collection of over a dozen failed drive units on 3's reported on TMC (and this is with me going on hiatus from TMC for months at a time) and numerous folks have had cracked glass roofs, including some folks at my work. Tesla reliability record is spotty and I'm amazed they even achieved average in the first model year of the 3. Below average sounds more like it, which is the latest assessment.

Not every has the ability to charge at work or at home.

There are numerous reasons why in Jan 2019, I ruled out the 3 and bought a heavily discounted ’19 Bolt when GM tax credit was still $7500. A $44K+ 3 MR in white for $46K was paying way too much for a car with things I didn’t want, missing things I wanted and were flat out unavailable and that I had other issues with.

The introduction of the “$35K” 3 which still hasn’t shipped hasn’t addressed any of my issues w/the 3 except price, partly.

(And yes, I’m well aware of the strengths the 3 has over the Bolt (e.g. excellent Supercharger network and DC FCing speeds, OTA updates, etc.))

The Bolt is a great option. The only real downside is less cargo room and lack of charging infrastructure. The infrastructure part is changing somewhat rapidly.

I personally don't own a Tesla. I have a Nissan Leaf. I own Tesla stock, and I enjoy following the company. I just don't buy new cars.

Even the $40K model is better deal than most people realize. That's the part that Tesla needs to educate the public on. Also, the lack of an ICE SHOULD eventually change the economics of car ownership. People will own cars longer if there is no engine to go bad. I wouldn't be suprised if we start seeing 84 month loans be more common

I'm a little perplexed by your comments on the Model 3's reliability. Not refuting them at all, as I've read similar complaints before; but I know several Model 3 owners who absolutely love their car and have had no problems whatsoever. Most of them are hardcore fanboys though, so that might be why.

 

[LeftieBiker]

Even the $40K model is better deal than most people realize.

Have they added a heated steering wheel, adjustable rate suspension or an optional "luxury" ride option? Have they fixed the problem of the doors often refusing to open in frigid weather? Have they made access easier with a front seat that raises and swivels, to compensate for the car being so low? Can you now get yours with more than a tablet in place of instruments and controls? If yes to the above, then I agree.

 

[SageBrush]

Anyone else besides me saw it coming? If not a push by TSLA shareholders amongst lawmakers I don't know what it is.

I agree, you do not know.

Hint: MI is bill sponsor