While chademo is looking bleak long term, it's still growing almost as fast as ccs right now

[cwerdna]

Funny you say "with a business model like Fenix are more likely to have a meaningful business model". Uhh... they haven't delivered anything and they're more than happy to leave their web site up. Even our thread at https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=26597 finally got locked. Fenix's site still says "Installations starting in July!" as it has for a very long time: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=26597&p=603068&hilit=july#p603068.

Who knows how far they got w/their pie in the sky battery? It doesn't seem like they even got one used pack installed in any customer Leaf. They've demonstrated no technical prowess or competence unlike the folks in https://evsenhanced.com/, Dala, mux, etc.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/FenixPowerCoForum/ was littered with stories of people out their $ and nothing to show for it. Now checking again, it's now mostly full of posts by a weirdo Nissan shill who posts all sorts of weird stuff, sometimes total misinformation. If's one thing to be a fan and/or enthusiast, but it's another to post misinformation.

 

[gcrouse]

Sure, Fenix has turned out to be either vaporware or some other failure - but the market for aftermarket batteries is clearly there - otherwise they wouldn't have been able to get reservations and folks angry about not getting anything after putting down a deposit.

As the EV market expands, so will the market for aftermarket batteries and 3rd party EV repair shops.

I wouldn't judge the market for something as a whole off one company.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I think that the relevant point here is that Fenix either naively made the deposits too low, making people think of them as a bargain, or they intentionally set them low to attract suc, er, prospective clients. A serious, legitimate aftermarket battery company would have to charge a lot more, both for binding deposits and for the actual installations.

 

[SageBrush]

^^ Exactly, Leftie

 

[SageBrush]

but the market for aftermarket batteries is clearly there

There is a not small group of people who bought cheap LEAFs and are now stuck with range issues from the battery degradation. They are looking for cheap fixes, and Fenix appeared to them to be the answer to their prayers.

Fenix was always FOS, but the underlying business case of using salvage packs has *never* been reasonable. And this notion of replacement packs at a cost people will accept will remain unrealized unless Nissan decides to sell cheap packs under warranty (dream on!), or cheap replacement packs from China become a thing. My hope was for the latter, but that possibility is fading by the day, certainly now that cells are in short supply.

 

[jlv]

I think companies with a business model like Fenix are more likely to have a meaningful business model.

I hope no other battery replacement companies have a business model like the shysters who created Fenix.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I wonder if people would go for an affordable Chinese replacement pack that uses LiFePo4 cells, and has, say, 25kwh, but with much less degradation...

 

[SageBrush]

I wonder if people would go for an affordable Chinese replacement pack that uses LiFePo4 cells, and has, say, 25kwh, but with much less degradation...

I know I would if I planned to keep the LEAF, but a company has to put in the R&D to write a BMS for the pack and charger. It is no where near as simple as stuffing LFP cells into the old case. This is part of the reason why Fenix was a scam from Day #1 -- they did not have any engineering expertise, let alone the capital to get the R&D done.

 

[LeftieBiker]

It is no where near as simple as stuffing LFP cells into the old case.

That's true. Did anyone claim otherwise?

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

I didnt think Fenix was that cheap. 100/month for a mediocre 24kWh battery lease? Would have been better to just spend the 3-4K for a 24kWh battery replacement.

The overall business model was kind of weak.

 

[gcrouse]

I don't think Fenix's business model itself was flawed - i think it's execution was flawed. SageBrush makes a good point about the BMS portion. Certainly a company like EVRides has a stronger business model since they have less to handle in terms of BMS and other compatibility issues but the concept of third party battery replacement seems like a realistic possibility in the mid to long term future, not so much the short term. I'll speculate that the majority of not all of battery production capabilities are going to be gobbled up by automakers, who like Nissan aren't going to try very hard to sell replacement batteries since it's outside of their core business but as EVs gain market share and continue trickling into the used car market where the majority of folks end up buying their cars (especially as prices for cars have risen over time), the idea of a third party battery replacement or even battery as a service isn't unrealistic. I think a lot of it comes down to what the market/consumer can handle.

As a generalization, cars that are 5-10 years old make up a lot of the affordable vehicles in the market, which doesn't square up well with battery degradation/capacity. With the minority of EVs on the road - i don't think the financials quite make sense for something like Fenix given the staffing, capital, and sales required to make it work yet or in the next 5 years.

Unfortunately for me, it will probably put me in an awkward decision point in 2026. My battery seems to be tracking just a bit above of the chart Larson made based off the warranty and bars being lost. I'll have to decide between paying an outsized sum to Nissan for a replacement with whatever they'll finance, buying a new EV, or going back to an ICE vehicle. I'd really rather not go back to having to worry about the wild price fluctuations of gas though. I'm hoping by then that either 1. Nissan drops the price on 40kwh batteries (not likely) or that EV prices on small SUVs trend downwards a bit and federal incentives get expanded again.

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

About 20 coming soon Chademo locations appeared in New Mexico.

Chademo availability is still on the rise.

 

[oxothuk]

About 20 coming soon Chademo locations appeared in New Mexico.

Chademo availability is still on the rise.

Just curious but where are you reading about this? I’m planning a trip through NM next year sometime and right now the CHAdeMO coverage looks prett thin.

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

On Plugshare if you enable the coming soon stations. It looks like they are being funded by the VW money. Most of the stations are in the southeast of the state.


https://www.env.nm.gov/vw-settlement/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2020/04/VW-Project-Selection_22Apr20_LDZEV.pdf


And wow, now a bunch of coming stations in Montana!
https://news.mt.gov/Department-of-Environmental-Quality/New-Charging-Stations-Bring-Expanded-Travel-for-Electric-Vehicles-Across-Montana

 

[oxothuk]

On Plugshare if you enable the coming soon stations. It looks like they are being funded by the VW money. Most of the stations are in the southeast of the state.


https://www.env.nm.gov/vw-settlement/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2020/04/VW-Project-Selection_22Apr20_LDZEV.pdf


And wow, now a bunch of coming stations in Montana!
https://news.mt.gov/Department-of-Environmental-Quality/New-Charging-Stations-Bring-Expanded-Travel-for-Electric-Vehicles-Across-Montana

Looks like the DCFC installations are costing $150-$200 K each. It's hard for me to believe that including CHADEMO plugs would add very much to that.

 

[SageBrush]

Looks like the DCFC installations are costing $150-$200 K each. It's hard for me to believe that including CHADEMO plugs would add very much to that.

But as I told you in another thread, it is not just the plug, it is the electronics and maintenance and R&D.

I think we will see 50 kW DC chargers from multiple vendors hitting the market soon. We'll then have a better idea of the cost of a CCS box alone Vs a CCS+CHAdeMo box. I'm willing to bet that CCS only boxes take over the market quickly

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

My bet is that wave begins in 23 not 22.

 

[cwerdna]

The reason is a CCS adapter. That will be the obvious choice for any Tesla made from ~ 2020 that has the needed electronics.

Doesn't seem to be the case given some reports like these: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ccs-adapter-for-north-america.165490/page-31#post-6234119 and https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ccs-adapter-for-north-america.165490/page-32#post-6239445 unless it's a reporting bug...

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

Were the component's cut to save costs?

 

[SageBrush]

The reason is a CCS adapter. That will be the obvious choice for any Tesla made from ~ 2020 that has the needed electronics.

Doesn't seem to be the case given some reports like these: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ccs-adapter-for-north-america.165490/page-31#post-6234119 and https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/ccs-adapter-for-north-america.165490/page-32#post-6239445 unless it's a reporting bug...

You are choking on a gnat and ignoring the elephant