Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

TSLA has not announced, how cheap the interior of the $36.2K Model 3 will be, or what other features it will be lacking, in comparison to the small number of ~$50k to ~$60.5k Model 3s it has actually built and given glimpses of so far.

It essentially has; you can infer the standard based on what the premium gives.

As for the leaf costing about half a model 3, this is also half true. So far the model 3s being sold (the thirty that have) are pricing out at $59k, but it's not fair to compare a gen 2 basic leaf to a tricked out M3 and at the same time say the leaf offers more utility, as you did. That jacked up model 3 will have approx twice the range for one thing, plus an ever-increasing suite of enhanced auto-pilot, and access to a super charger network. The fair comparison is the $35k model 3. It's not available yet but looks like it will be next year. At that point you'll have a car massively quicker than the Gen 2 leaf, with much better range, a better history of keeping range over time (battery), and a car that is likely to get better over time via updates (can we say the same about the gen 2leaf?).

Yes tesla has a poor history of quality relatively speaking, and there isn't a tesla dealer on each corner like there is a nissan. There are definite benefits to having a nissan sticker on the car, but my guess is the day you drive each car off the lot your grin will be a lot bigger behind the wheel of the tesla. And that's why it costs more, and it's going to sell better, too.

Call it self-esteem issues (I prefer wisdom, but who knows), but picture the month is December 2018 and two guys pull up to the lights, one in a model 3 another in a gen 2. Which guy is trying to rationalize in his head his purchase choice? I doubt it's the guy who's range meter is saying 189 miles left and when the light goes green he's about to obliterate the other one.

 

[internalaudit]

What this means is that Tesla is able to offer additional value to the customer, and get paid for it. That's what successful businesses do!

I know you didn't mean this - but just a fun fact.

Nissan-Renault is now the world's largest automaker, beating VW & Toyota for the first 6 months of this year.

http://fortune.com/2017/07/28/renault-nissan-largest-automaker/

In other news - there is a lot of griping by Model 3 reservation holders that the options on 3 are too expensive and this the uptake will be lower.

Another thing with the Tesla Model 3 is that aside from the $1k reservation deposit, another $2,500 is required to secure a delivery date. The issue I find is Tesla's financing department (partnership with FI's and not in-house) will not pre-approve a borrower until 30 days before delivery. It would be better if credit check is done before that $2,500 deposit is placed and if the financial circumstances and employment situation don't change much, then at least the borrower will feel at ease that he will be approved just prior to delivery.

Tesla is offering 2.5% 8-year financing here in Canada and I think that's a pretty good deal but auto loans from other FI's will be at least 6% per annum. Car makers' financing/leasing arms provide subsidy and I guess with Tesla, the Model S and X buyers are generally the well to do to affluent households.

My wife and I have good credit and above median household income but of course we do have sizable mortgage, some loans (backed by investments) and a RAV4 loan that will have around 18 months left. We usually financed between 3 and 4 years but if the rate stays the same from the 4th to the 8th year, I might as well take the offer especially when we are going to pay MSRP anyway.

I'm just being pragmatic because no way am I going to pay 6%/year to finance a vehicle, not even a Tesla, if we're not approved for financing.

Many reservation holders will be in a similar boat. This could come as a surprise if they get rejected by Tesla Financing and will need to pay a higher interest rate than they expected.

I've raised the issue on TMC but hey, the fans just told me to have a back up auto loan ready. In Canada, the FI's work as an oligopoly so 6% is the minimum for auto loans, even to excellent paying borrowers.

 

[evnow]

I've raised the issue on TMC but hey, the fans just told me to have a back up auto loan ready. In Canada, the FI's work as an oligopoly so 6% is the minimum for auto loans, even to excellent paying borrowers.

Don't you have credit unions ? Can you borrow from a US bank ?

Atleast you have universal healthcare ! Here if the employment situation changes, not only you won't have a job, you won't have healthcare too.

 

[internalaudit]

I've raised the issue on TMC but hey, the fans just told me to have a back up auto loan ready. In Canada, the FI's work as an oligopoly so 6% is the minimum for auto loans, even to excellent paying borrowers.

Don't you have credit unions ? Can you borrow from a US bank ?

Atleast you have universal healthcare ! Here if the employment situation changes, not only you won't have a job, you won't have healthcare too.

No. We cannot borrow from US banks. Good point about credit unions but I doubt they can offer even 3.5%, a full percentage more.

I think the Model 3 here will not come with an 8 year 2.5% loan. Must be Tesla somehow subsidizing the auto loans since the Model S and X are much more expensive.

Your rates there seem so much more appealing but I think Tesla offers 1.9% over a few years?

http://www.bankrate.com/auto.aspx

 

[SageBrush]

But imagine if the battery ages like the current LEAFs. Then the commuter/regional car becomes a commuter in a few short years and the initial value proposition turns into a bad joke. Rather like the people who bought the LEAF at near MSRP and have 50 mile range cars now, within five years of purchase. Only worse, because people will be tempted to buy the car for uses that approach the new car range.

Someone above toss out 20% loss of battery in 40K miles. 20% loss on a 150mi LEAF is still 120mi of range, compared to 68mi remaining after losing 20% of an 85mi range. I think it won't matter near as much with the larger battery.

People here are reporting 25% loss in 15 months and much less than 40k miles. Then take off 30% for a cold and wet winter day and start thinking about the car when it is a year older.

How far can you go in one direction before you turn around ?

 

[LeftieBiker]

People here are reporting 25% loss in 15 months and much less than 40k miles. Then take off 30% for a cold and wet winter day and start thinking about the car when it is a year older.

IIRC those losses are for Hot places like Phoenix. They don't have frigid Winters as well. In most cases losses will be lower where it gets cold.

 

[edatoakrun]

TSLA has not announced, how cheap the interior of the $36.2K Model 3 will be, or what other features it will be lacking, in comparison to the small number of ~$50k to ~$60.5k Model 3s it has actually built and given glimpses of so far.

It essentially has; you can infer the standard based on what the premium gives...

TSLA is charging another $5k just for the "premium" interior, one of the mandatory "options" on all 3's built so far, and delivered until...when?

Just how cheap do you infer the 3's interior will be, when you remove $5,000 worth of materials and features?

For perspective on what $5k should get you in today's automotive market , Nissan sell a five-door crossover in India...the whole car...for ~$4,100.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datsun_redi-Go

https://www.datsun.co.in/vehicles/new-vehicles/redi-go.html

hopefully, the base interior in the Tesla model 3 will be a little bit nicer than the redi-Go's...

="EatsShootsandLeafs

...Call it self-esteem issues (I prefer wisdom, but who knows), but picture the month is December 2018 and two guys pull up to the lights, one in a model 3 another in a gen 2. Which guy is trying to rationalize in his head his purchase choice? I doubt it's the guy who's range meter is saying 189 miles left and when the light goes green he's about to obliterate the other one.

Which effectively describes TSLA's primary marketing strategy, finding buyers who are gullible enough to buy the pitch that they can compensate for their assorted inadequacies and anxieties by paying way too much for a car.

...People here are reporting 25% loss in 15 months and much less than 40k miles. Then take off 30% for a cold and wet winter day and start thinking about the car when it is a year older...

Some members of this forum might be better off spending some money on therapy for their anxieties, rather than on buying an expensive car.

 

[SageBrush]

blah blah blah

Are you going to put your money where your mouth is ?

I hope so.

 

[abasile]

I agree, but those options put the car out of the mass market price range. It also prevents the T3 from fulfilling Musk's promise of being a mass market car.

This is all conjecture and I don't mean to bash the car. It's beautiful and an amazing feat of ingenuity. Some people think any comment has to praise of trash one car or the other. I just want to see EVs (all EVs) achieve massive market penetration. I worry that the price of the initial T3s might turn off a lot of potential buyers.

I wouldn't worry about the price of the initial Model 3 cars ("first production") scaring buyers away. Tesla has been tooting their horn about a "$35,000 car" for a long time, and even if delayed, the base model shouldn't be terribly long in coming.

Those options won't keep the Model 3 from being a mass market priced car unless Tesla fails to keep up with demand for the $35K base model. What those options will do is help Tesla to hopefully reach profitability sooner rather than later. (I'd be fine if Tesla follows the pattern of Amazon by re-investing most of their earnings in growing the business and only showing a slight profit; I just want them to continue as a going concern even if the market sours!)

 

[IssacZachary]

Call it self-esteem issues (I prefer wisdom, but who knows), but picture the month is December 2018 and two guys pull up to the lights, one in a model 3 another in a gen 2. Which guy is trying to rationalize in his head his purchase choice? I doubt it's the guy who's range meter is saying 189 miles left and when the light goes green he's about to obliterate the other one.

Kids (aka people) that buy cars just for bragging rights don't impress me. Around here everyone wants an SUV. They're willing to pay $10,000 more on the sticker price and get 1/2 the fuel mileage just so they say they can have something that "can handle the snow". And yes, I've had lots of SUV's just about obliterate me as they fly around us that have 2WD at an icy stoplight that just turned green. Then about that time I slowly but surely pass by them stuck in a snow bank because I chose to invest my money in a set of tire chains instead of an SUV. After driving in Colorado for the past 30 years I really haven't ever seen a real need for 4WD unless you have a long driveway you have to maintain yourself.

Same goes with electric cars. Get what works for you. If you need 200 miles of range then get a car with 200 miles of range. But there's no sense in paying +$10,000 just for bragging rights. 29 days out of the month my driving is about or less than 30 miles per day. Maybe if I needed to commute to Denver the extra 200 miles would come in handy, but that isn't ever going to happen.

 

[SageBrush]

Same goes with electric cars. Get what works for you. If you need 200 miles of range then get a car with 200 miles of range. But there's no sense in paying +$10,000 just for bragging rights. 29 days out of the month my driving is about or less than 30 miles per day. Maybe if I needed to commute to Denver the extra 200 miles would come in handy, but that isn't ever going to happen.

It does not take that much to exceed the LEAF.

My work commute is 45 miles each way without charging in between. Add winter and some famous Nissan battery degradation and the LEAF2 is a non-starter. Then once or twice a month I drive over 250 miles each way. That requires a Tesla and a SuperCharger network.

 

[IssacZachary]

It does not take that much to exceed the LEAF.

My work commute is 45 miles each way without charging in between. Add winter and some famous Nissan battery degradation and the LEAF2 is a non-starter. Then once or twice a month I drive over 250 miles each way. That requires a Tesla and a SuperCharger network.

Yes, you can run out of juice quite easy in a first generation Leaf. And 45 miles one way daily is about as far as you'd want to push it. Still, I wonder what the Leaf 2 will offer as far as range. It might make that 45 mile per day trip pretty easy.

As for the 250 mile each way trip you can either take your time in the Leaf or rent. If the total cost of ownership of a Leaf 2 (this is just a wild guess) is $10,000 less than a Tesla 3 it would take 250 days of $40 rentals to make the Leaf just as expensive. For 5 years that's renting about once every week.

I did a 240 mile trip one way this summer from Gunnison to Denver and back and totaled just at 700 miles for the whole trip in the Leaf. I also went to Montrose on several occasions this year, which is about 65 miles one way with no charger in between. There was also a trip to Rifle early spring. And every trip I did I had at least my wife and at times one other passenger to make happy too. But of course I'm a bit of a fanatic I guess and by the time I hit 10 bars in this 24kWh Leaf I probably won't be able to do trips like those anymore. And all winter I'm probably not going to be able to do any of this either. I'm hopping to find some sort of cheap range extender to keep using my Leaf. Maybe I'll try to add some used batteries like what >>THIS GUY<< did. I also need to go to Denver this up coming week. This time I'm trading cars (2015 Chevy Sonic) with a family member for the week.

For me such decisions have kept me from having to use my 1985 VW diesel Golf. I don't think I'll ever be able to afford a new car. So for me I have to wait to see what pops up cheap and good as a used car. But which will it be? A Model 3 or a Leaf 2? Time will only tell.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Call it self-esteem issues (I prefer wisdom, but who knows), but picture the month is December 2018 and two guys pull up to the lights, one in a model 3 another in a gen 2. Which guy is trying to rationalize in his head his purchase choice? I doubt it's the guy who's range meter is saying 189 miles left and when the light goes green he's about to obliterate the other one.

Kids (aka people) that buy cars just for bragging rights don't impress me..

I'll start by saying I proudly drive a minivan.

My pulling up to the lights analogy is not simply to have a car to impress people, but a car to impress myself. If I were the last person on the planet with my pick of cars and nobody to see them I would rather drive a tricked out M5 BMW than a base Camry.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

TSLA is charging another $5k just for the "premium" interior, one of the mandatory "options" on all 3's built so far, and delivered until...when?

When it's ready. If you don't like it you can go and buy a Leaf Gen 2--oh wait, that's not ready yet, either.

Just how cheap do you infer the 3's interior will be, when you remove $5,000 worth of materials and features?

What is "$5k"? Tesla is making a huge margin on this $5k for sure (unlike the base car). This is partly why they kept power seats out, to "force" people to get the premium. it's not like they are sinking $5k of actual cost into this, and I think you know that.

For perspective on what $5k should get you in today's automotive market , Nissan sell a five-door crossover in India...the whole car...for ~$4,100.

You should not be comparing garbage cars sold in India that have nothing in the way of size, power, or safety equipment to cars sold in the USA. And if you still insist on it, you shouldn't be challenging Tesla on its $5k interior upgrade but rather asking yourself why Nissan will charge 8X on a leaf what it asks for in this redi-go.

Which effectively describes TSLA's primary marketing strategy, finding buyers who are gullible enough to buy the pitch that they can compensate for their assorted inadequacies and anxieties by paying way too much for a car.

If your belief that paying more for a better car projects one's inadequacies I would say you've just betrayed an intellectual one of your own.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

As for the 250 mile each way trip you can either take your time in the Leaf or rent. If the total cost of ownership of a Leaf 2 (this is just a wild guess) is $10,000 less than a Tesla 3 it would take 250 days of $40 rentals to make the Leaf just as expensive. For 5 years that's renting about once every week.

I break down financial costs deep as well and there's definitely value to it.

But, this reminds me some years ago I got a pool. I asked a friend how much his cost per use (cost of pool divided by projected number of times the kids would use it). He said if you go at it that way you'll never make the cost work for you.

For most people the pure cost compare of the leaf will make it a superior purchase, just like buying a base camry is a better purchase to an M5. And yet people still buy M5s, not because they are stupid but because they have enough extra money that they are willing to get a decreasing return on their money to have something much nicer.

The leaf is banal as they come. Utilitarian to a fault. I like that, but for the same reason people pay more for leather in a car they will pay more for things that don't necessarily pencil out. The Model 3 may cost $10k more and get a mere 25% extra range. Seems like a lot, but you also get things the leaf doesn't offer like EAP (caveat: still interested in seeing what propilot will do), and the equivalent of a hundred extra horsepower, which is the difference between being "snappy in traffic", which the leaf will be, and downright fast, which the model 3 will be.

 

[IssacZachary]

My pulling up to the lights analogy is not simply to have a car to impress people, but a car to impress myself. If I were the last person on the planet with my pick of cars and nobody to see them I would rather drive a tricked out M5 BMW than a base Camry.

I know what you mean. I could have kept driving my 1985 VW Golf diesel. It still runs great, it just won't die even though it has about 500,000 miles on it. That's what I get for following the owner manual's recommendation of changing the oil every 3 months. So I bought a Leaf, which was a huge step up for me. And not only that, I let the car salesman talk me into an SL. Of course the SL was only $9,000 instead of $8,000 for a similar year S. But we have gone on hundreds of miles slow trips in the Leaf just because we like it a lot more than the Golf. There's just something about having a radio and an air conditioner and not having a leaky sunroof that makes us, and most importantly the wife, happy.

and the equivalent of a hundred extra horsepower, which is the difference between being "snappy in traffic", which the leaf will be, and downright fast, which the model 3 will be.

But I'm still getting used to the huge amount of power the Leaf has compared to my 45hp Golf!

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

My pulling up to the lights analogy is not simply to have a car to impress people, but a car to impress myself. If I were the last person on the planet with my pick of cars and nobody to see them I would rather drive a tricked out M5 BMW than a base Camry.

I know what you mean. I could have kept driving my 1985 VW Golf diesel. It still runs great, it just won't die even though it has about 500,000 miles on it. That's what I get for following the owner manual's recommendation of changing the oil every 3 months. So I bought a Leaf, which was a huge step up for me. And not only that, I let the car salesman talk me into an SL. Of course the SL was only $9,000 instead of $8,000 for a similar year S. But we have gone on hundreds of miles slow trips in the Leaf just because we like it a lot more than the Golf. There's just something about having a radio and an air conditioner and not having a leaky sunroof that makes us, and most importantly the wife, happy.

and the equivalent of a hundred extra horsepower, which is the difference between being "snappy in traffic", which the leaf will be, and downright fast, which the model 3 will be.

But I'm still getting used to the huge amount of power the Leaf has compared to my 45hp Golf!

Even the model 3 will feel like you're driving a fighter plane compared to your cars! Heck, I think the leaf gen 2 would as well.

I used to keep cars for a while but I keep swapping them out way too soon these days. our oldest car now we bought new and it has 65k, but I do plan on putting a ton more miles on it. Once full self driving (or darn close) is essentially available I am going to stretch as much as I can to get it. That's partly why I want a model 3. Tesla is pushing this tech aggressively (arguably too fast). If it's pretty mature a handful of years from now it's going to strongly incline me to dump my other car even though it may be in good shape and get into one with the hardware required to do it. I'm not that old, but I'm thoroughly sick of driving on highways, even though i don't do it much. Already today, in 2017, it's possible to put a tesla on the highway, press cruise control twice, and then sit there for mile after mile not engaging with the car. I want that badly.

 

[joeriv]

Seems to me there are two sides to purchase decisions - the head and the heart.

The head says I need a car to go 50 miles/day and a 2018 Leaf will fill the bill perfectly.

The heart says "You must be kidding! The Tesla is pure sex! I want it!!"

And what wins is such a personal decision it defies analysis.

 

[edatoakrun]

TSLA is charging another $5k just for the "premium" interior, one of the mandatory "options" on all 3's built so far, and delivered until...when?

When it's ready. If you don't like it you can go and buy a Leaf Gen 2--oh wait, that's not ready yet, either...

Neither the Tesla 3 or the Gen 2 LEAF are in production and available for sale yet.

The essential difference between a company like Tesla, which specializes in selling bullshit, and a company like Nissan, which primarily sells vehicles, is illustrated by the fact that TSLA claims the model 3 is in production, and Nissan, which has undoubtedly put far more Gen two LEAFs on the road than Tesla has model 3s, does not.

It also now appears likely that you will be able to look at, test drive, and have delivered, a gen 2 LEAF available in a complete range of trims for ~$30k to $35k , long before you will be able to experience any of those with a Tesla model 3, priced anywhere below $50,000.

...Aug 17, 2017
Nissan readies next-generation LEAF for first public displays during 2017 National Drive Electric Week

NASHVILLE – Less than a week after its global debut, the next-generation Nissan LEAF begins making public appearances at National Drive Electric Week events across the U.S. Consumers in eight cities will get an up-close look at the second-generation LEAF. Nissan LEAF is the official sponsor of National Drive Electric Week for the third straight year.....

The first test-drives will begin in October...
http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/nissan-readies-next-generation-leaf-for-first-public-displays-during-2017-national-drive-electric-week

LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=17820&start=1630

 

[Durandal]

The essential difference between a company like Tesla, which specializes in selling bullshit, and a company like Nissan, which primarily sells vehicles, is illustrated by the fact that TSLA claims the model 3 is in production, and Nissan, which has undoubtedly put far more Gen two LEAFs on the road than Tesla has model 3s, does not.

It also now appears likely that you will be able to look at, test drive, and have delivered, a gen 2 LEAF available in a complete range of trims for ~$30k to $35k , long before you will be able to experience any of those with a Tesla model 3, priced anywhere below $50,000.

I test drove a Model X, and I will say if it's bullshit, that was some mighty fine bullshit I was driving!

There are no new Nissan Leafs for sale in my area. I'd wager lunch at David's Burgers nearby the SuperCharger in my city (Little Rock) that I will have my Model 3 that I will purchase for $36,000 (I'm optioning for blue instead of the free black color, so that's an extra $1,000) in my driveway before any of my local Nissan dealerships have any Gen 2 Leafs in stock.

In case you never make it down to my neck of these backwater woods, I can mail you a gift-card to Chili's, or similar chain instead.

The local Nissan dealerships are McLarty brand, so we can both check online monthly to see if I owe you a $20 gift card or not...
http://www.mclartynissannlr.com/